This NFL year has been a sloppy one and a lot of people have rightfully complained about it. Maybe it was teams not taking preseason seriously enough, maybe it was something else, but for whatever reason, there's been a lot of injuries (and not just the concussion variety -- which to me feel down -- but mostly ligament and structure damage injuries), and there's been a clear division of "haves" and "have nots" this season.
And yet, despite that, we're gearing up for one of the closest playoff races in NFL history... Here's why:
AFC
There are 3 clear division leaders in the AFC that are 3+ games ahead of the next closest division opponents, a virtually insurmountable lead for those teams:
- Patriots, 7 - 0 (Closest: Jets, 4 - 3)
- Broncos, 7 - 0 (Closest: Steelers, 4 - 4)
- Bengals, 7 - 0 (Closest: Raiders, 4 - 3)
Because those teams are each 7 - 0
and the Broncos play both the Patriots and Bengals, this means that these three teams are likely to be neck-and-neck for either the playoff bye or homefield up until Week 16, Sunday Dec 27. One team would have to go on a significant slide for them to not be competitive in Week 16 for homefield. By strength of schedule, the team most likely to slide would be Denver (they have to play both NE and Cinci, plus the Colts, Chiefs, Chargers (2x), Steelers, and Raiders -- they'd be favored in these games, but it's not an easy stretch). But, as of Week 8, Denver arguably looks the strongest (there's some recency bias here with New England playing on Thursday and obliterating a rising Dolphins team).
Here's the rest of the AFC Playoff would shape up if the season ended
today:
- 1st Seed: Denver Broncos 7 - 0 (First round bye)
- 2nd Seed: New England Patriots 7 - 0 (First round bye)
- 3rd Seed: Cincinatti Bengals 7 - 0
- 4th Seed: Indianapolis Colts 3 - 5
- 5th Seed: Oakland Raiders 4 - 3
- 6th Seed: New York Jets 4 -3
Here are the remaining teams in the AFC and their games out of the playoffs:
- Texans - 0.0 games out of division (Losing on tiebreakers). Play Colts Week 14.
- Jaguars - 0.5 games out of division (4 division games, 2 against Titans, 1 each against Texans and Colts. Schedule wise, Jaguars could be playing for the division in Week 17 despite being 2 - 5 in week 8)
- Steelers - 0.5 games out WC. Steelers play Raiders Week 9. Winner moves into WC spot. Other potential Wild Card opponents: Colts, Week 13.
- Bills - 1 game out of WC (Play Jets and Dolphins each)
- Dolphins - 1 game out of WC (Play Jets and Bills each; Jets Week 17, potential "regular season playoff game" for WC)
- Chiefs - 1.5 games out of WC
- Titans - 1.5 games out of division
- Chargers - 2.5 games out of WC (7 remaining games against AFC)
- Browns - 2.5 games out of WC (6 remaining games against AFC)
- Ravens - 2.5 Games out of WC (6 remaining games against AFC
Some noteworthy games for the current AFC playoff teams... The Colts are 3 - 5 and have lost 3 in a row. They have a worse record than their next 4 opponents... Broncos (7-0), Falcons (6-2), Bucs (3-4), and Steelers (4-4). Arguably, the Colts
could lose those four games. You'd have to wager they're underdogs to Broncos, Falcons, and Steelers, and arguably favorites against the Bucs (or should be). But the Colts could be 4 - 8 at this point. Similarly, the Jaguars at 2 - 5 have the Jets, Ravens, Titans, and Chargers in this thread. Arguably the Jags lose to the Jets, but Ravens, Titans, and Chargers are toss ups... as all three of those teams have worse records than the Jags. The Jags are obviously a team who doesn't win the games they should, but
if they did, they be 5 - 6, or if those are toss ups, then 4 - 8. Texans have a much tougher schedule, facing 5 teams with a better record, 2 of which are undefeated. Their schedule ends with 3 division opponents.
If there's one thing that deserves over-stating, it's that the AFC South is dogshit. The Titans are 1 - 6 and only a game and a half out of the playoffs. I didn't think it'd be possible to be
worse than the NFC South last year, but the AFC South is.
