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Nintendo 2016 Fiscal Year Earnings Release: Targeting 10 million Switches this f-year

J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
James Scott said:
They said they believe it's due to people buying multiple copies thanks to the LE. Additionally people buying it when the system is sold out is another option.
Click to expand...
Makes sense. Probably alot easier to get the game than the system.
 
H

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
spekkeh said:
Uh huh

Nintendo released the following home consoles: NES, SNES, N64, NGC, WII, WIU

Three out of four are failures. So four and a half of these are failures. I'm sure we can all agree that WII wasn't a failure, so you are arguing every single other one including NES and SNES were failures. Please tell me more oh wise games analyst.
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Honestly, while console sales numbers are good. Having an ecosystem where 1st party and 3rd party games thrive is even more important. The SNES and NES (and to a certain extent the N64) had an exceptionally strong ecosystem where first and third parties thrived. The gamecube had some huge successes in 3rd party like Tales of Symphonia and RE4, but the ecosystem for 3rd party was weaker.

If the switch can get that "Magic Bullet" of having very strong 1st party, and people copiously buy 3rd party games. The console will get more third party games, and more people buy the console because the variety increases. At least, that is my hope since many of the first adopters are "hardcore gamers" who typically buy lots of third party games.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
thestopsign said:
You get to include the second November in a lot of those first year release schedules which is when a second round of big games typically comes. I would expect one more game for Q4 this year and then Nintendo will have a big game for Q1 next year that they pushed out of Q4 2017 whether it is Super Smash, Mario Maker, Pokemon Stars, Retro's Game, or Animal Crossing along with another smaller scale title. It'll round out the first year line up quite a bit in comparison to Wii and Gamecube. I think the Wii U's looks weak even against the Switch's line up as is.
Click to expand...

I didn't include "2nd November", I tried to get literally 364 days from launch, but it was quick & dirty, so I'm not sure if I grabbed titles released later in November. But that would be fair, anyway, as the original claim I was disagreeing with was that Retro's game shouldn't release this fiscal year - that would be through March 2018. So 2 full March months on that timetable.

kevin1025 said:
Haha, true, I'd love for there to be more games! But then comes the concern that they threw up most of their stuff and 2018 will be somewhat quiet.
Click to expand...

That's where I would hope 3DS development moving over to Switch would help alleviate the gaps that were so prevalent later in their home consoles' lives. It's exciting to think of all their teams supporting a home console - I really hate portables. And we can see from so many comments here, many people are excited for the opposite - universal portability.
 
N

noshten

Member
sazzy said:
so if Zelda sells at a conservative 50% attach rate, expect it to sell 5 million copies this FY.
Click to expand...

I just don't foresee a situation in November/December where people are buying Switch as a gift and Zelda isn't one of the most popular titles to buy along with the console. It's entirely possible that Zelda could be close to 8 million by the end of the year if Nintendo is able to sell around 12 million consoles this year. Outside of Japan Zelda is basically over 100% attachment rate during the launch, even if it sells to 1 in 2 new Switch owners from now on it's likely to be over 60% attach rate due to the launch.
There is additional DLCs announced and awards so the game will continue to stay top of mind for people buying the system well into the system's life. So that's why it's entirely realistic why Zelda BotW is simply going to be a massive game in terms of the overall performance of the franchise.
It's an outstanding game that fills a need that Nintendo otherwise has difficulty providing in their games. It's unrivaled in terms of the amount of time you could spend doing totally different things in a SP environment. The other games coming out during the first 6 months are multiplayer games so Zelda is a perhaps the perfect complimentary game that provides a very different SP experience for people buying a Switch for MK8D, Arms or Splatoon 2.
 
S

Skittzo0413

Member
I'm curious if anyone will ask Kimishima why analysts have this FY's projected shipments a good deal higher than Nintendo's own projections.

Muffin Awesome said:
Went through all the pages, was that hiphenated f for fiscal or fucking?
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47bed14db64592f5a36711363a525b39_82733-why-not-both-meme-5lvd-meme-why-not-both_400-400.jpeg
Click to expand...
 
W

WiiRevolution1

Member
Rösti;234914791 said:
Nintendo's financial results briefings are usually held 10:00 AM JST the day after the earnings release. April 28, 2017, 10:00 AM JST converts to the below.

t1493341200z4.png


I think they have had it 09:00 AM JST some time. But around these times anyway.
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The timer is finished and no news.

Rosti lied. Truly the darkest timeline smh.

/s

But seriously no news at all huh? They must be too shocked by the megatons. :D
 
R

reelbigtink

Member
My local Walmart had a bunch of Switch games just a few days ago. Went in today to buy Puyo and they were sold out of every Switch game besides Binding of Isaac and 1, 2 Switch. I dunno if a scalper wiped them out but maybe it's a good sign that software is moving.
 
E

Empyrean Heaven

Member
So basically trying to hit the Wii U's entire lifetime sales in one fiscal year? If Nintendo puts enough stock out there, they can do it. They'll need one hell of a holiday lineup though, and not just Mario Odyssey.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Early days comparison now:
NSW_WW

It also looks completely in line with PS4's launch, though since in both cases they'd be very front-heavy it's not a very realistic view.
PS4_WW

Celine said:
The infamous WiiU fourth quarter when the console actually sold negative numbers in Europe (Nintendo bought back the stocks).
Click to expand...
Ha, I forgot about that one. Quarterly went from 1.01m to 1.02m back to 1.01m.
 
D

Dark Cloud

Member
In case people missed it Nintendo still have Xenoblade Chronicles 2 listed as 2017 for Japan, America and Europe on their finances.

I'm hoping it comes this year.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
Dark Cloud said:
In case people missed it Nintendo still have Xenoblade Chronicles 2 listed as 2017 for Japan, America and Europe on their finances.

I'm hoping it comes this year.
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LOL, guys, this naive guy here actually thinks XBC2 is coming this year LOLOL!
I think it will
 
N

ninjablade

Banned
spekkeh said:
Uh huh

Nintendo released the following home consoles: NES, SNES, N64, NGC, WII, WIU

Three out of four are failures. So four and a half of these are failures. I'm sure we can all agree that WII wasn't a failure, so you are arguing every single other one including NES and SNES were failures. Please tell me more oh wise games analyst.
Click to expand...

I meant there last 4 home consoles when the 3d era started, n64, GC, wii, and wii u.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
A question: Do people *really* think BOTW has sold more units to consumers than the Switch has worldwide? One look at Japan numbers tells you this is nigh impossible.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
Zedark said:
LOL, guys, this naive guy here actually thinks XBC2 is coming this year LOLOL!
I think it will
Click to expand...

It's coming out this year. At this point Nintendo has seemed confident enough that it is guaranteed in my mind. The only titles they ever delay are Zelda games... I honestly can't think of any other examples off the top of my head.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
SinCityAssassin said:
Digital sales.
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Even with digital (which are included in the 2.76 million BOTW numbers) Japan gets only 30-40K extra. The gap is huge, and it would still require the rest of the world to have a BOTW attach rate of 1.15 or 1.2 or so. That would be absolutely ridiculous - even the 1.02 attach rate in the US was shocking, and that data point even means that rest of world must be much higher than 1.2 still. It's just not possible. The explanation is way too simple as well: the Nintendo numbers are shipped, and Zelda isn't sold out as fuck like the Switch is, which tell you the real situation.

Don't get me wrong: I think the Zelda numbers are an amazing accomplishment, and whether they sold through it all already is largely inconsequential, since they will during April and sell many more copies as well.
 
S

Spoit

Member
Zedark said:
A question: Do people *really* think BOTW has sold more units to consumers than the Switch has worldwide? One look at Japan numbers tells you this is nigh impossible.
Click to expand...

Given how the previous statement from nintendo themselves that they released a week or two ago specifically had a paragraph noting, and trying to explain the greater than 100% attach rate? Yes, I do think it was real.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
Spoit said:
Given how the previous statement from nintendo themselves that they released a week or two ago specifically had a paragraph noting, and trying to explain the greater than 100% attach rate? Yes, I do think it was real.
Click to expand...
I am not denying the US thing. I am saying that the thought that 2.76 million shipped means consumers bought more than 1 copy on average worldwide is not feasible. I've laid out a few posts above why this is unfeasible.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Zedark said:
Even with digital (which are included in the 2.76 million BOTW numbers) Japan gets only 30-40K extra. The gap is huge, and it would still require the rest of the world to have a BOTW attach rate of 1.15 or 1.2 or so. That would be absolutely ridiculous - even the 1.02 attach rate in the US was shocking, and that data point even means that rest of world must be much higher than 1.2 still. It's just not possible. The explanation is way too simple as well: the Nintendo numbers are shipped, and Zelda isn't sold out as fuck like the Switch is, which tell you the real situation.
Click to expand...

Spoit said:
Given how the previous statement from nintendo themselves that they released a week or two ago specifically had a paragraph noting, and trying to explain the greater than 100% attach rate? Yes, I do think it was real.
Click to expand...

I've been struggling with this a bit myself, because an attach rate of over 100% is just unprecedented even for a game as obviously attractive as Zelda. Especially since, as you (Zedark) say, it would have to be well above 100% in the west as Japan is closer to 60%.

Your shipped vs. sold argument is the first I've heard that makes sense, more so than people double dipping physical (for collecting) and digital (for convenience), or people buying the game in anticipation of getting a Switch later. I'm sure those people exist, but I have a hard time believing they're that numerous.

But yeah, what Spoit says is also true: this number keeps popping up and keeps being officially communicated, so it can't be brushed off as an error. It's a conundrum.

EDIT: Come to think of it, if there are significant numbers of double dippers/buy-in-advancers, there should be more than of fair share of them on GAF. So let's hear it: who on here owns more copies of BotW for Switch, than they do Switches?
 
Z

Zedark

Member
Farmboy said:
I've been struggling with this a bit myself, because an attach rate of over 100% is just unprecedented even for a game as obviously attractive as Zelda. Especially since, as you (Zedark) say, it would have to be well above 100% in the west as Japan is closer to 60%.

Your shipped vs. sold argument is the first I've heard that makes sense, more so than people double dipping physical (for collecting) and digital (for convenience), or people buying the game in anticipation of getting a Switch later. I'm sure those people exist, but I have a hard time believing they're that numerous.

But yeah, what Spoit says is also true: this number keeps popping up and keeps being officially communicated, so it can't be brushed off as an error. It's a conundrum.
Click to expand...
Well, the number only popped up in one region, the US, and nowhere else, even at launch. It is obviously not impossible that it happens in one or a few regions, but worldwide is unfeasible because of a major region like Japan buying only 60%. One or a few regions is very well possible (no reason to doubt an official statement), worldwide not so much.
 
S

Spoit

Member
Zedark said:
Well, the number only popped up in one region, the US, and nowhere else, even at launch. It is obviously not impossible that it happens in one or a few regions, but worldwide is unfeasible because of a major region like Japan buying only 60%. One or a few regions is very well possible (no reason to doubt an official statement), worldwide not so much.
Click to expand...

Oh I guess I misread your original post. The margin seems to be about the same as the NA oversell, so I guess maybe if we would have to do some (terrible) hack-math, and assume that between digital sales and the shipped to retailers (instead of sold-through) numbers add up to the remaining 40% or whatever the reciprocal of the attach rate is, in the other countries?
 
K

Kissenkopf

Banned
Farmboy said:
I've been struggling with this a bit myself, because an attach rate of over 100% is just unprecedented even for a game as obviously attractive as Zelda. Especially since, as you (Zedark) say, it would have to be well above 100% in the west as Japan is closer to 60%.

Your shipped vs. sold argument is the first I've heard that makes sense, more so than people double dipping physical (for collecting) and digital (for convenience), or people buying the game in anticipation of getting a Switch later. I'm sure those people exist, but I have a hard time believing they're that numerous.

But yeah, what Spoit says is also true: this number keeps popping up and keeps being officially communicated, so it can't be brushed off as an error. It's a conundrum.

EDIT: Come to think of it, if there are significant numbers of double dippers/buy-in-advancers, there should be more than of fair share of them on GAF. So let's hear it: who on here owns more copies of BotW for Switch, than they do Switches?
Click to expand...

I had two copies of the game for the Switch. Bought one for a good friend. He owns the game now but doesnt have a Switch because he isn't able to find one.
 
S

spekkeh

Banned
Farmboy said:
EDIT: Come to think of it, if there are significant numbers of double dippers/buy-in-advancers, there should be more than of fair share of them on GAF. So let's hear it: who on here owns more copies of BotW for Switch, than they do Switches?
Click to expand...
Actually both types have already been shown to exist on GAF before.

I've got a hunch this statistic played a part in why there is ostensibly so much positive buzz around Switch with retailers. Some of them called it a Wii situation, which had us scratching our heads because it seemed way too early to call. We should all remember the Wii U, so which statistics were they looking at that made them bullish?

Well, one, if you look at the average Switch section of a store, it looks like a food section in a Soviet country, completely cleared out. A GameStop (?) employee on here mentioned that the average attach rate was eight products to every Switch. But then additionally, if you take the Zelda statistic, a lot of people are buying games without owning a Switch yet, meaning there's a lot of unmet demand still. Wii U also sold pretty well initially, but then after the first batch cratered. That will probably not happen with Switch if the >100% attach rate is anything to go by.

The same thing happened to me with PS4. I bought AC4 in anticipation of getting a PS4 the next day, only then it took me four months to get one. I can see Switch following in the footsteps of PS4.
 
M

MatrixMan.EXE

Member
Get Super Mario Odyssey and Pokemon Stars out and I'm sure they can do that. Hell, Splatoon and Mario Kart should give the hardware significant boosts as well.
 
S

skypunch

Banned
noshten said:
I just don't foresee a situation in November/December where people are buying Switch as a gift and Zelda isn't one of the most popular titles to buy along with the console. It's entirely possible that Zelda could be close to 8 million by the end of the year if Nintendo is able to sell around 12 million consoles this year. Outside of Japan Zelda is basically over 100% attachment rate during the launch, even if it sells to 1 in 2 new Switch owners from now on it's likely to be over 60% attach rate due to the launch.
There is additional DLCs announced and awards so the game will continue to stay top of mind for people buying the system well into the system's life. So that's why it's entirely realistic why Zelda BotW is simply going to be a massive game in terms of the overall performance of the franchise.
It's an outstanding game that fills a need that Nintendo otherwise has difficulty providing in their games. It's unrivaled in terms of the amount of time you could spend doing totally different things in a SP environment. The other games coming out during the first 6 months are multiplayer games so Zelda is a perhaps the perfect complimentary game that provides a very different SP experience for people buying a Switch for MK8D, Arms or Splatoon 2.
Click to expand...

While it wasn't the best Xeno game, you can also spend a lot of time doing many different things in Xenoblade X. Mining, finding treasure, planting data probes, fighting enemies, exploring, doing quests, continuing the main story, upgrading arms manufacturers, upgrading your blade stats, customising your character and your Skell...

Xenoblade 2 will also be that perfect complimentary SP game for people buying a Switch for MK8D, Arms, or Splatoon 2. Zelda isn't the only BIG SP game coming out for the Switch. And if anything, Xenoblade is the perfection complimentary game to Zelda because its hook will be its epic theme-laden story, something BotW focused less on in favour of exploration.
 
A

Adam_Roman

Member
I'm glad they have such conservative estimates for both Switch sales and software attachment. It shows they aren't getting cocky and they're still unsure if Switch will be a flash-in-the-pan which means they'll keep pushing great software to entice more people to believe in it.
 
T

twothunder

Member
Wow. Nice job nintendo. Some great Switch and BOTW sales

Also. I believe the million sellers have been updated on the site
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wiiu.html


( As of March 31, 2017 )
Mario Kart 8 8.31 million pcs.
New Super Mario Bros. U 5.68 million pcs.
Super Mario 3D World 5.60 million pcs.
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U 5.20 million pcs.
Nintendo Land 5.17 million pcs.
Splatoon 4.80 million pcs.
Super Mario Maker 3.95 million pcs.
New Super Luigi U 2.95 million pcs.
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD 2.17 million pcs.
Mario Party 10 2.09 million pcs.


Pokémon X/Pokémon Y 16.11 million pcs.
Pokémon Sun/Pokémon Moon 15.44 million pcs.
Mario Kart 7 15.22 million pcs.
Pokémon Omega Ruby/ Pokémon Alpha Sapphire13.74 million pcs.
New Super Mario Bros. 2 11.27 million pcs.
SUPER MARIO 3D LAND 11.27 million pcs.
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 10.97 million pcs.
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS8.72 million pcs.
Tomodachi Life 5.70 million pcs.
Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon 5.31 million pcs.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
spekkeh said:
Actually both types have already been shown to exist on GAF before.
Click to expand...

Oh, I'm sure they exist. I just doubt there are a lot of them. In fact, I think it's quite likely that the number of people who have a Switch but no Zelda > the number of people who have Zelda (for Switch, obviously) but no Switch. Both groups are marginal, of course.

The shipped vs. sold argument makes sense though. And the attach rate is still incredibly impressive when taking that into account.
 
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