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Nintendo 2016 Fiscal Year Earnings Release: Targeting 10 million Switches this f-year

AniHawk

Member
Outlook for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2018

8ARsWpJ.gif

just give me a moment. christ.
 

Zedark

Member
Yeah, like, you guys think there are 100k Switches sitting on the shelf or something?
The discussion was more gered towards people wondering how in the world Zelda could have sold more than 1:1 to consumers (answer: it didn't).

OT: These predictions make it hard to guess if they are going to have a massive game announcement for the holidays. I think they could easily sell through 10 million without a pokémon game, but these are just predictions, possibly aimed at not disappointing investors.
 
Holy fuck, that's even better than previously anticipated. Already almost 3 million in just March, I bet it's long surpassed that by now.

Good on Nintendo for their success so far, they deserve to succeed, the Switch is an unbelievable piece of kit.
 

Striek

Member
Regarding the 546K software sold/shipped, what titles does this cover?
5460k*

Pretty sure it just covers titles available at retail (but includes digital sales of those titles). So no eShop exclusive titles. You can see that in "Number of new titles released" in the earnings release (is only the 9-10 retail titles in each region).

Yeah, like, you guys think there are 100k Switches sitting on the shelf or something?

Uh, no but I'd be shocked if there way more copies of BOTW waiting for new buyers than that.
 

jonno394

Member
The discussion was more gered towards people wondering how in the world Zelda could have sold more than 1:1 to consumers (answer: it didn't).

OT: These predictions make it hard to guess if they are going to have a massive game announcement for the holidays. I think they could easily sell through 10 million without a pokémon game, but these are just predictions, possibly aimed at not disappointing investors.

I think(hope) that Nintendo have learned from the Wii U not to over estimate their sales? 10m is very conservative when you think production has apparently been doubled to 16m.

5460k*

Pretty sure it just covers titles available at retail (but includes digital sales of those titles). So no eShop exclusive titles. You can see that in "Number of new titles released" in the earnings release (is only the 9-10 retail titles in each region).



Uh, no but I'd be shocked if there way more copies of BOTW waiting for new buyers than that.

Yeah I noticed my mistake! so over 2.7m other titles sold at retail (bomberman, 12 switch etc)?
 
I hope this early success puts a spark in Nintendos ass. 💥🍑Keep expanding those teams, sign some big deals, dont hold back!
 
Wait, so Nintendo sold 2.74 million Switch consoles just until the end of March/within a single month? That seems impressive :eek:

Wonder how much higher that number is by now, almost a month later. Crazy how they still can't keep it in stock.
 

AniHawk

Member
2016 was a really great year for nintendo to rebuild. they've really been doing it since 2014, but 2016 is when a lot of their planning went into effect. and as weird as it seemed, they had the perfect way of getting people back on their side. pokemon go, zelda at e3, switch reveal in october, nes classic for the holidays - only really misstep was the january 2017 switch presentation and that was forgotten thanks to positive impressions of the platform at events in new york city and all over the world. it's a shame iwata didn't get to see it since this is largely his doing.

2017 is when it kicks into full gear too and it's exciting to see. i love it when a plan comes together.
 
Yes, you can check here.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

It looks like it's gone over by around a million.

Man I always forget how much Tomodachi Life sold. It's so bizarre. (I love it)

Konami nailed releasing Bomberman.

Why couldn't Capcom take a risk and had a Megaman game for launch. Maybe someday we'll see a new one

To be fair it's handled by the Hudson part of Konami. I'm not sure if there's anyone with love for Megaman left at Capcom...
 

Thoraxes

Member
ya did good, iwata. ya did good.

....also 10m units is critically low given the current demand. i'm not surprised if they're already 1/10 of the way there in april. but it seems like they might be preparing for a lot more given the rumors that were floating around, and are just sticking to a plan they had formulated prior to launch.
It's 10m more this fiscal year, so 12.74m for the LTD by end of FY 17.
 
ya did good, iwata. ya did good.

....also 10m units is critically low given the current demand. i'm not surprised if they're already 1/10 of the way there in april. but it seems like they might be preparing for a lot more given the rumors that were floating around, and are just sticking to a plan they had formulated prior to launch.

Always promise low so everyone can act surprised when you exceed.

So how likely is it that WW Switch sales will be over 4M by the end of this month?

Too likely.
 

Spoit

Member
The numbers in the OP are sold (to retailers), not sold-through (to consumers), right? And does that include digital?
 

marmoka

Banned
I wonder how Mario Kart will do worldwide, and splatoon as well.

10 million is realistic, but I feel optimistic, I think they will overpass that by christmas.

Also 15 million for Pokemon? Wtf? I thought Pokemon GO didn't work that well when advertising sun/moon. Glad I was wrong.
 

ramparter

Banned
10 millions imo could mean 3 things:

- it's a very conservative estimation in case demands significantly drops at some point

- they can't produce much more than that

- pokemon won't happen this year
 

AniHawk

Member
Rösti;234862285 said:
Nintendo Switch Sales Units in Ten Thousands

salesh1sc9.png

software looks like they're thinking it'll perform more like a handheld. aside from the ds, handhelds have had a pretty consistent software:hardware ratio of 4.25-4.75:1

that, or they're thinking a majority of sales will come from first-party titles. first-party titles and binding of isaac.
 

ggx2ac

Member
10 millions imo could mean 3 things:

- it's a very conservative estimation in case demands significantly drops at some point

- they can't produce much more than that

- pokemon won't happen this year

They're being conservative in the estimate.
 

ckfy63a

Member
And to think the Wii U hardware forecast for 4/2013-3/2014 (i.e., first full year of Wii U on the market) was initially set at 9 million units...goodness, it seems Nintendo finally has gotten its head out of the sand!
 

Mr_Moogle

Member
Doesn't uber successful Nintendo also tend to bring about arrogant asshole Nintendo? I think I'd like it better if they we're struggling and desperate.
 

Zedark

Member
So how likely is it that WW Switch sales will be over 4M by the end of this month?
Switch specific depends on how many units are available for April. It's definitely possible as I expect them to ship well for MK8D, but still 1.26 million this month could be hard.
 

Zedark

Member
software looks like they're thinking it'll perform more like a handheld. aside from the ds, handhelds have had a pretty consistent software:hardware ratio of 4.25-4.75:1

that, or they're thinking a majority of sales will come from first-party titles. first-party titles and binding of isaac.
Don't attach rates grow as the life of a system goes on? The PS4 always mentions increasing attach rate. Personally I found a 3.5× attach rate for the next year pretty great for the first year.
 

AniHawk

Member
Switch specific depends on how many units are available for April. It's definitely possible as I expect them to ship well for MK8D, but still 1.26 million this month could be hard.

they already overdelivered on the fy goal for switch by 37%. they probably have been going with a higher production count to try and keep up with demand and reported on an earlier forecast they had decided on prior to the switch's launch.
 

Spoit

Member
Rösti;234862285 said:
Nintendo Switch Sales Units in Ten Thousands

salesh1sc9.png

What's up with those software (shipped?) attach rates. Why does Japan only have like 1.5, when they had a much more diverse launch lineup? And what the hell are they shipping in NA to get more than a 2:1 attach rate?
 

random25

Member
DOA.

That Zelda Switch attach rate will always be amusing to me. Good job on pumping out additional shipments, though it seems not enough to meet demand yet.
 

thefro

Member
software looks like they're thinking it'll perform more like a handheld. aside from the ds, handhelds have had a pretty consistent software:hardware ratio of 4.25-4.75:1

that, or they're thinking a majority of sales will come from first-party titles. first-party titles and binding of isaac.

WSJ said that per analysts, 20 million would be a "fair target" and above 25 million would be a "positive surprise".

Nintendo's target is 35 million.
 
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