SinCityAssassin
Member
Yes, that is exactly what is releasing this year in its entirety. You nailed it.
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Nintendo 2016 Fiscal Year Earnings Release: Targeting 10 million Switches this f-year
Yes, that is exactly what is releasing this year in its entirety. You nailed it.
ARMS, Splatoon 2, Fire Emblem Warriors?
Are you one of those tools who think Splatoon 2 is a port?
You're also ignoring a bunch of other already announced games.
Dark Cloud
Member
Here comes the residential troll.
Not the best (although I know what you mean).
Personally I think that's a realistic point for Switch to end up LTD (60-70 million), but Nintendo themselves seem to go for a higher target - and it's not impossible. If they only get a fraction of the third party support the PS4 gets (a good Fifa AC and CoD would go a long way) combined with the best effort from their first party studio could go a long way in beating that number.
3DS got a huge price cut in it's first year.
I can see Switch being around 12 million by the end of 2017 without a price cut. So possibly outdoing 3DS by several millions without needing to cut the price(perhaps bundle MK8D for Christmas). Also there is far more software that is potentially multimillion selling titles for the first six months on the Switch:
Zelda
MK8D
Splatoon 2
Minecraft
We still don't have much clarity regarding the lineup for the August-December but potentially we have a few games that have the potential to pass a million by the end of 2017:
Super Mario Odyssey
DQ 11 Switch
Skyrim
FE Heroes
Xeno2
Lol. Zelda and Mario kart are the only Wii U ports.
Splatoon is a sequel, arma is a new game, xenoblade 2 is a new game, fire Emblem warriors is a new game. Even 1-2-switch and snipperclips were new games.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Consumers in general buy electronic products (and well gift deemed items in general) in larger volunes during that sales period. Black Friday itself being a particularly strong period in the US. It's the most likely time your going to get someone that isn't an enthusiast to pick up your product which is why the majority of launches try to aim for that spot. It's the easiest way to try to ship a lot of stock.
So how's that 10m forecast square with the WSJ report that Nintendo was doubling next year's production from 8m to 16m? Just Nintendo being conservative? Also units produced is different than units shipped, I know.
If that's true, I wonder when we'll see the effects of that increased production on store shelves. I'd guess summer?
If that's true, I wonder when we'll see the effects of that increased production on store shelves. I'd guess summer?
You will gradually start to notice it, as it will build up to larger extra quantities over time. The 16 million production is not debunked by this forecast, though there is no confirmation for it either: the 10 million is a forecast, a conservative one I'd think considering the current momentum, and Nintendo could want to surprise investors with better than forecast sales at the end of the year, so 16 million produced is still very much possible.
SinCityAssassin
Member
It's a conservative projection. And if it's truly correct that Nintendo plans to try for 16 million manufactured by next March, it's a projection that will make them look good the moment they pass it.
D.Lo
Member
Almost certainly. They were burned by bullish forecasts on the Wii U.
I think they can hit 10 by the end of the calendar year easily, it just depends how quickly they can make them. Japan alone could easily eat up a few million for Splatoon.
Under promise, over deliver. Always the most sensible business strategy.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Can't sell 10 million of you only make 8 million so that's the first hint. Two, Nintendo is basically saying, 'Hey, it's only been 1 month.'
People who say that are right on the money.
Now, if the excitement holds and Mario launches by the holidays, I'm wondering how they don't hit 10 million.
November and December can easily move 2 million in NA alone. Maybe more. Black Friday and Christmas? Splatoon, Mario kart, Zelda, and new 3d Mario on deck? I'm trying to remember a similar packed schedule over 9 months. That makes a 2 million December and a close to 3 million November+December easily doable, in NA alone.
That's all speculation but how does the hype die down? It stays up until September and 10 million seems ultra conservative, unless they can't make enough due to a parts shortage and the people who can't find a switch would really hand a beef. Heaven forbid they only have 2 million switches to sell November and December.
Damn man, you sure told em'!
R
Rösti
Unconfirmed Member
A photo of Tatsumi Kimishima from the news conference:
Photo credit: Kyodo via AP Images.
I am waiting for two other photos to become available.
Photo credit: Kyodo via AP Images.
I am waiting for two other photos to become available.
Are there other examples of videogames having an attach rate over 100% or is this an industry first?
SinCityAssassin
Member
102.5 billion yen. or over roughly over $921 million. So let's compare on what analysts had predicted
Exceeded.
489.0 billion yen. Exceeded.
2.74 million sold to retailers. Exceeded.
yurinka
Member
It didn't flop? Do we know its sales? If good they would have mentioned them. But well, in any case being a cheap ass motion sensor minigame compilation its budget may have been pretty low, and considering the small amount of games available I assume it will be profitable.
SinCityAssassin
Member
That's less stress and more being aghast at a shareholder probably asking why Nintendo is not a pachinko company.
JonnyDBrit
Member
"Is 0.9 billion in profit not good enough for you, sir?"
That was the Nintendo-like profits Iwata was trying to get this whole time from the 3DS and Wii U. It ended up not happening until now.
They are only expecting 10 mil switch consoles to be shipped next fiscal year?
So by march 17 2018, a total of 12.74million consoles.
Hmm.. As much as I would like to care, does this make any implication regarding the existence of Pokémon Stars? (Numbers seem a bit low tbh, could be supply constraint?)
Personally, I think it might, yeah. If it's not about only supply constraints, it potentially says to me Pokémon will come in the next FY, where 25M consoles are projected to be sold.
Edit: somehow I didn't think about projections being intended to be outperformed. So, Pokémon could still come this year under that scenario as well.
I loved that game .
Seriously ended up putting like HUNDREDS of hours into it . Great toilet game
SinCityAssassin
Member
Yes, along with the sudden surge of 3DS sales thanks to Pokémon [Go], their leftover extraordinary income from the sale of their majority stake in the Seattle Mariners also helped a non-insignificant amount. I say only a portion of it goes towards profit because a good part of it is being funneled into Nintendo's film interests.
I definitely missed that. Thank you!
El-Pistolero
Member
It says more about that abysmal performance of the WiiU, to be honest. In any case, I believe that they will exceed that figure, if "only" by a couple of millions. Good job, Nintendo!
1st Course
Member
Isn't the profit made from selling the Mariners included here though?
That's obviously an exaggeration, but I think the message is essentially, we already know what we're getting this year, although there could be some surprise WiiU ports.
Everything else will come when the userbase is bigger, next year.
And you know what? That's fine.
SinCityAssassin
Member
It plays a large part in the profits, which in my mind it balances out a lackluster early 2016.
Yes, so they won't have that cushion for the following FY.
GregLombardi
Member
Id be curious to know how a likely increasing profit margin on every switch sold (presuming it is almost barely profitable now) will affect their numbers.
That was Quarter 2 of 2016, so yeah.
You are overthinking a troll attempt.
SinCityAssassin
Member
Considering how the build costs on its own, I don't doubt that the profit margin on a Switch alone is at least one or two dollars at the moment.
Screamapillar
Member
They have to play it safe after 3DS and Wii U both had slow starts in their first year (Wii U's was permanent, I suppose). So Nintendo and others are used to Nintendo underperforming expectations, including their own.
Bless you if you made this lol.
but with an additional holiday month in the US? I mean..
DeuceGamer
Member
Does seem optimistic. I'm wondering if there will be a significant price cut and if it will get the next Pokemon game.