I wrote a breakdown about the "Pikmin 4" rumours earlier but I figure I might as well post it now since the discussion has ramped up again, and I think it's important we are all clear on everything, since there's been so much information about it that it's been hard to keep on top of everything. So hopefully, this is the best recap out there regarding What The Hell Is Going On With The Pikmin Franchise.
Here is Miyamoto's exact quote in 2015.
"It's actually very close to completion," Miyamoto said. "Pikmin teams are always working on the next one."
As I mentioned earlier, note the use of "Pikmin teams", plural.
Nintendo's statement to Eurogamer:
"We can confirm that Pikmin 4 is in development but that is all we can confirm at present."
It is only Nintendo's PR who call it "Pikmin 4". Eurogamer simply say Miyamoto told them of "a fourth major Pikmin game".
In June 2016, Miyamoto gave
the following update:
"Yes, you are right, and we're working on [it]. So, you know, when we're in development we have to create a list of priorities and it has been hard to kind of fit that into that list, but we're hopefully starting to see that on the list now."
A bit over two months later, Hey Pikmin was announced for 3DS, coming out in mid-2017.
Now here are where the rumour people come in.
LKD put "Pikmin 4" on her list for a summer 2017 release on Switch. She described it as a "reboot", and
it would not literally called "Pikmin 4". In her post-mortem, she said, "I still believe [the 2017 section of my report] is fairly accurate." No further details regarding Pikmin specifically.
Tom Phillips casually mentioned "Pikmin 4" last fall on twitter, as did
Emily Rogers. Both backing up that it would be in the first 12 months.
However... recently, Emily's blogposts and tweets suggest she doesn't have a ton of current info about it. This was when she was dropping knowledge about Mario + Rabbids. But it seems like her and the other leakers are in the dark regarding "Pikmin 4".
In an April blogpost, she said,
And what's the deal with Pikmin 4 which Shigeru Miyamoto keeps discussing in multiple interviews? Hopefully we'll find out in soon.
In response to someone asking
what she thinks about Pikmin 4 and Retro's game coming to Switch year one:
I don't know about Pikmin 4, but Retro's game has been in development for 3+ years..Make of that what you will.
She also
said, in context of a conversation where people were surprised more weren't asking Miyamoto about "Pikmin 4" despite his previous acknowledgement of it,
If 3DS Pikmin is Pikmin 4, then I wish a reporter would get a clarification from Miyamoto.
Finally,
LKD's last mention of it was prior to the January event, where she said she believed it would be an E3 announcement if anything. She hasn't commented on "Pikmin 4" since to my knowledge.
Those above are the facts. The following is my opinion.
* Two of the major leakers who mentioned Pikmin 4 around the same time LKD did, have not commented on it with the same level of confidence since.
* To follow up on that, Tom Phillips only mentioned Pikmin 4 in a single tweet. He was
confident enough in Pokemon Stars to write an article in Eurogamer about it. However, "Pikmin 4" did not receive the same treatment. The closest is a mention in
this article about Hey Pikmin - where he notes in his opinion the existence of a separate Pikmin 4 is "likely", but does not state its existence as factual to his knowledge.
* LKD herself has not specifically commented on it since the January event.
*
Nothing in Miyamoto's quotes disqualifies Hey Pikmin as being the game he was referring to. As I mentioned before, he simply says "Pikmin teams", which does not specify EPD or any other developer.
* LKD's details about it being a "reboot" are strange. Hey Pikmin is clearly branded and designed from a gameplay perspective as not being a sequel to 1-3, same way she describes this "reboot" being. Also stars Olimar alone as the first game did.
* Miyamoto says the game was "close to completion" in 2015 - i.e. a point in time where the 3DS was Nintendo's principle platform. Note that
even BOTW did not begin being ported to the Switch until spring 2016. His mention in June implies the game was delayed for strategic/scheduling reasons, as Nintendo are often wont to do. Hey Pikmin has looked pretty near-done in all the footage we've seen of it since September, and its final release date ties in with the launch of the New 2DS XL, a late-lifespan remodel that coincides with the system's last real sales push. Incidentally, this is in summer 2017, just when LKD claimed "Pikmin reboot" would come out.
Personally, my guess is it sounds like the source who told the leakers about "Pikmin 4" was perhaps leading them on or otherwise had their wires crossed with Hey Pikmin. Most of the people who talked about it last fall don't seem to be quite as confident in it now. And again, I must stress - there's nothing in Miyamoto's quotes that confirm explicitly Hey Pikmin
isn't the game he was referring to.
My final conclusion is I think a proper Pikmin 4 on consoles will happen at some point. But I do not believe that was the game Miyamoto was referring to.
In any case all of this would be over if either A - An actual console Pikmin is announced at E3 or B - Someone asks Miyamoto about it and he admits that Hey Pikmin is the game he was referring to.
.
_/¯ I'm just sayin