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Nintendo Q3 FY15 Results - Beats Market Expectations; Lowers Full-Year Forecast

Shiggy

Member
Nintendo really has to find a way to increase its userbase in the upcoming generation. Wii U and 3DS sales have been sluggish at best.


The hardware is competent. It's very efficient and there's some stunning tech in there. What you likely wanted is higher specs. Higher specs doesn't mean a device is more or less competent.

You mean the stunningly bad screen?
 

QaaQer

Member
Wii U is a zombie at this point. They'd be insane to keep it alive until 2018.

2016 is the right time for a successor, but I'm expecting 2017.

People underestimate the amount of tome intensive work that has to go into a console, especially if you make your own proprietary os, tools, etc. Releasing a half baked console would hurt far more than a 2018 or even 19 release.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
AIUI they reduced marketing expenditure.

Could you comment on their balance sheet.

They are up considerably, more than ¥100 Billion yen.

I'm estimating ¥25-30 Billion yen must be relating to their US assets, they rest would be from gain on sales of market securities?
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
If Nintendo can escape the 3DS/Wii U Era having made a profit overall or even just modest losses, it would be a massive bullet dodged. These kinds of sales numbers would conceivably mean the exit of Microsoft and Sony from the gaming market.

They need to seriously study what Sony has achieved with the PS4.
 
It says a lot of Nintendo's operation that even if their other platform is outright bombing and other isn't as hot as any of its successors, they still manage to churn a healthy profit

Some would argue that's not necessarily a good thing, and would point to Sony when they were lagging with the PS3. They responded to poor performance by spending like crazy and are in a pretty good position after 4-6 years of that (atleast with the PlayStation brand). Nintendo is doing the exact opposite.

I'm not one of those people, but they exist. Especially analysts and investors. They love seeing companies spend money even if it's risky or not necessarily beneficial to consumers.
 
Could you comment on their balance sheet.

They are up considerably, more than ¥100 Billion yen.

I'm estimating ¥25-30 Billion yen must be relating to their US assets, they rest would be from gain on sales of market securities?

Have to wait for the annual report and the breakdown of their holdings of JGBs. If they held steady then their current holdings of JGBs are significantly more valuable than they were previously because of BoJ monetary action.

No, I'm talking the energy efficiency of the components. The streaming system etc. You cannot say that it is incompetent.

I wasn't even mentioning the GamePad's hardware

It's just a custom version of Miracast.
 

finch

Member
:p Trying to use a Vita with a PS4 like using Gamepad with the Wii U made me appreciate the Wii U a little (a lot) more. I'm not streaming from across the world, but it also doesn't run like i'm streaming from across the world when i'm sitting in the same room.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Have to wait for the annual report and the breakdown of their holdings of JGBs. If they held steady then their current holdings of JGBs are significantly more valuable than they were previously because of BoJ monetary action.

Alrighty! That's what I thought. Have to wait for annual report then :(

mggrrr
 
If Nintendo can escape the 3DS/Wii U Era having made a profit overall or even just modest losses, it would be a massive bullet dodged. These kinds of sales numbers would conceivably mean the exit of Microsoft and Sony from the gaming market.

They need to seriously study what Sony has achieved with the PS4.
If they did what Sony did with the PS4 and it doesn't work then that would likely kill them off easily. Making an expensive system means you can't really price drop easily and those types of systems rely heavily on marketing which Nintendo doesn't seem to want to spend too much on.
see Xbox One and everything MS needed to do to try to turn it around.
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
If they did what Sony did with the PS4 and it doesn't work then that would likely kill them off easily. Making an expensive system means you can't really price drop easily and those types of systems rely heavily on marketing which Nintendo doesn't seem to want to spend too much on.
see Xbox One and everything MS needed to do to try to turn it around.

I'm more thinking from a hype generation and marketing point of view.
 

QaaQer

Member
Okay, idle question time:

I think we all agree that Sony's gaming division is currently the most successful of the 3, and is clearly in the best position.

With that said, would you rather be in charge of Nintendo or Microsoft's gaming division? Obviously Microsoft is selling more console hardware and has more "mindshare." It also has significantly more sway with third parties.

On the other hand, they're selling less hardware overall than Nintendo is (as they only have the home console product line) and by all accounts are losing considerable money, while Nintendo is at least treading water. For now.

Too many competing interests and potential political webs @ ms that have nothing to do with gaming to make that a rewarding job. Nintendo is a age based, male dominated heirarcy and very Japanese and they concentrate on super safe family games internally so boring boring boring. I guess Id go with MS as Seattle/Pacific Northwest>Kyoto IMO.
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
That costs a lot of money, and at least for PS4 it was a pretty specific set of circumstances.
They did something similar with the Wii,but I'm not sure if that's easily repeatable.

Definitely, which is why I said they need to seriously study what happened with the PS4 rather than saying they need to copy what Sony did. One big change which they seem to have made and which should be very helpful in the future is that they appear to have all but given up on chasing the casuals to the detriment of everyone else. I don't think we'll be seeing any Nintendoland and Wii Sports focused E3 presentations, for example.
 

QaaQer

Member
Definitely, which is why I said they need to seriously study what happened with the PS4 rather than saying they need to copy what Sony did. One big change which they seem to have made and which should be very helpful in the future is that they appear to have all but given up on chasing the casuals to the detriment of everyone else. I don't think we'll be seeing any Nintendoland and Wii Sports focused E3 presentations, for example.

What do you mean by casuals?
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
What do you mean by casuals?

I mean the fact that Nintendo's focus early on in the Wii U's planning stages seemed to be heavily focused on getting the Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Wii Party crowd to buy the Wii U.

That's not to say that they were necessarily wrong at the time to go after that market. But they don't appear today to be focusing on them at all, again, with the qualifier "to the detriment of everyone else"
 

QaaQer

Member
I mean the fact that Nintendo's focus early on in the Wii U's planning stages seemed to be heavily focused on getting the Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Wii Party crowd to buy the Wii U.

Their focus, as with the Wii/D's/3ds, was to excite consumers with a new gaming hardware concept while providing a bevey of family friendly content starring familiar Nintendo characters. It's the same strat Iwata has pursued since he took over in 2000(?). So maybe a better way of stating it is that they wanted to attract families and people not interested in psxbox manshoots, just like always.
 
I cant believe it is actually going to reach 10m, lol.

3DS numbers are abysmal too.

-35.7% quarterly hw decline
-42.2% cumulative hw decline

...tells us that the 3ds is on its way out.


i expect even steeper declines for 2015...new 3ds will be largely ineffectual at staving off the inevitable.
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
Their focus, as with the Wii/D's/3ds, was to excite consumers with a new gaming hardware concept while providing a bevey of family friendly content starring familiar Nintendo characters. It's the same strat Iwata has pursued since he took over in 2000(?). So maybe a better way of stating it is that they wanted to attract families and people not interested in psxbox manshoots, just like always.

Well the lack of anything resembling Wii Sports or Wii Play or Nintendoland since launch is a change in direction, that's all I'm saying.

For example, I don't see them headlining the E3 reveal of their next console with a game like Nintendoland. That's all, and it's a positive move for their mindshare.
 
-35.7% quarterly hw decline
-42.2% cumulative hw decline

...tells us that the 3ds is on its way out.


i expect even steeper declines for 2015...new 3ds will be largely ineffectual at staving off the inevitable.

actually since new 3DS is still in this fiscal year, wouldn't that just make FY16 even worse

:p
 

lyrick

Member
Okay, idle question time:

I think we all agree that Sony's gaming division is currently the most successful of the 3, and is clearly in the best position.

With that said, would you rather be in charge of Nintendo or Microsoft's gaming division? Obviously Microsoft is selling more console hardware and has more "mindshare." It also has significantly more sway with third parties.

On the other hand, they're selling less hardware overall than Nintendo is (as they only have the home console product line) and by all accounts are losing considerable money, while Nintendo is at least treading water. For now.

That's difficult.

With Microsoft you would have near limitless resources to do whatever you wanted as long as there was some long term corporate strategy alignment. That kind of fiscal resourcing creates a massive imbalance in the industry. If console success truly was all about getting a product into as many homes as possible, this role would be the easy.

With Nintendo it would be a deep dive in fiscal conservatism coupled with a pure focus on Software as a safe for all ages entertainment medium. This challenge would be much more difficult. Although there would still be significant fiscal resources involved, in the end placing a Toy Company against a marketplace dominated by enormous Corporate Conglomerates would be an incredible challenge, as an enormous fiscal misstep could not be solved by an OS product or your Insurance branches.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Oh it's stunning all right.
Playing FIFA 13 off TV on Wii U is stunning once you take advantage of it. I'm ranked 150 out of 12.000 online players, I've played 1300 online matches so far. The low latency, the additionnal control inputs, make the game incredible to play.

Not all games benefit of off TV equally, but when it works like that, it is stunning. I guess such gameplay enhancement is harder to appreciate at first sight, compared to obvious visual enhancements.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
-35.7% quarterly hw decline
-42.2% cumulative hw decline

...tells us that the 3ds is on its way out.


i expect even steeper declines for 2015...new 3ds will be largely ineffectual at staving off the inevitable.

Seriously.

3DS HW for FY16 should be between 5-6 million
Wii U HW for FY16 should be between 2.6-3 million

Nintendo needs to address the above as to how they will make-up for the loss of revenue. They are already taking steps through higher profit margins with amiibo, dlc, licensing ventures but that is not enough. I mean there is QOL but there's nothing tangible to even know how or if it will contribute to their bottom line.

Nintendo's Inventors Meeting need to be good.
 
Some would argue that's not necessarily a good thing, and would point to Sony when they were lagging with the PS3. They responded to poor performance by spending like crazy and are in a pretty good position after 4-6 years of that (atleast with the PlayStation brand). Nintendo is doing the exact opposite.

I'm not one of those people, but they exist. Especially analysts and investors. They love seeing companies spend money even if it's risky or not necessarily beneficial to consumers.

Sony as an organization is on an entirely different level than Nintendo though so it doesn't feel fair to compare the two struggles. Sony corp threw so much behind the ps3s rebranding and costly price cuts because Blu Ray had to win the war. For the future of the device and movie segments. They have been operating on a cash to debt strategy for years before this and can take the loss. In this case, Nintendo knew there is a limit to how much good money they can throw at a bad investment. Especially when part of the problem is damn near irraversable, such as the name of the console. Better to wait it out the cycle, and double down on their lean operations to see them through
 

prwxv3

Member
Sony as an organization is on an entirely different level than Nintendo though so it doesn't feel fair to compare the two struggles. Sony corp threw so much behind the ps3s rebranding and costly price cuts because Blu Ray had to win the war. For the future of the device and movie segments. They have been operating on a cash to debt strategy for years before this and can take the loss. In this case, Nintendo knew there is a limit to how much good money they can throw at a bad investment. Especially when part of the problem is damn near irraversable, such as the name of the console. Better to wait it out the cycle, and double down on their lean operations to see them through

They threw money at the PS3 because they thought play station was going to be a important part of the company in the future. And with the success of the PS4 it looks like it was the right call.
 
With that said, would you rather be in charge of Nintendo or Microsoft's gaming division?

Nintendo, because then I'd have seniority dibs on everything they threw away when they cleaned out their closets. I'd probably have ten Ultra Hands and the prototype of Super Mario 128 out of the garbage before the board of directors fired me for incompetence
 

jholmes

Member
It's not against the law to make ridicolously high forecasts.

Indeed it isn't. I didn't say it was. It is illegal to intentionally mislead investors, be it for financial gain or, as according to the poster in question, to annoy them in some sort of misguided attempt to impress strangers on the Internet, or whatever "trolling" the investors is supposed to mean.
 

Glass Joe

Member
Their QoL platform probably sounded like a great idea a few years ago when they were cooking it up and stuff like Brain Age and Wii Fit were printing money. Now that the fad is gone, I'm wondering if Nintendo actually has a concept people will want or if they are entering a market they weren't prepared for after all.

As for the Wii U, I believe the rumors were that there was such an overstock in warehouses that Nintendo had to sell 12m. And during this time, they were certainly in no rush to blow them out with price reductions so they could continue to manufacture. Now that much of that stock has sold through, it will be interesting to see how soon they do a price cut or a revision.
 

Danthrax

Batteries the CRISIS!
Well the lack of anything resembling Wii Sports or Wii Play or Nintendoland since launch is a change in direction, that's all I'm saying.

For example, I don't see them headlining the E3 reveal of their next console with a game like Nintendoland. That's all, and it's a positive move for their mindshare.

October 2013: Wii Party U
January 2014: Wii Fit U
July 2014: Wii Sports Club

That's after launching with NintendoLand and Sing Party in November 2012. Although nothing in that vein has been announced for the near future, while the release schedule is filled with hardcore Nintendo fan pandering, so the shift does seem to have happened.

[edit] uh and I guess it's a stunning shift
 
Playing FIFA 13 off TV on Wii U is stunning once you take advantage of it. I'm ranked 150 out of 12.000 online players, I've played 1300 online matches so far. The low latency, the additionnal control inputs, make the game incredible to play.

Not all games benefit of off TV equally, but when it works like that, it is stunning. I guess such gameplay enhancement is harder to appreciate at first sight, compared to obvious visual enhancements.

Stunning numbers all around in this post.
 
inMCgLCOtcdkH.gif

*stunning
I don't get the joke? Did Iwata say something?
 
No, I'm talking the energy efficiency of the components. The GamePad streaming system etc. You cannot say that it is incompetent.

I wasn't even mentioning the GamePad's hardware
Haven't seen any proof or test that shows how the Wii U is more effcient than a PS4 or X1 for example. Being a device with lower energy footprint doesn't necessarily imply it is a marble of efficiency (to not use the word "stunning").
 

jholmes

Member
No. Quote at the top of the page. Which is being over reacted to, imo.

Seriously. Who else is pulling off what Nintendo is with off-TV? The tech ain't bad.

But hey Nintendo's profitable so we gotta find something to take a dump on here.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
-35.7% quarterly hw decline
-42.2% cumulative hw decline

...tells us that the 3ds is on its way out.


i expect even steeper declines for 2015...new 3ds will be largely ineffectual at staving off the inevitable.

It's more like the overshipment in 2013 heavily influenced Q4 FY2014 and Q1 FY2015 shipments. Heck, actually, I think last quarter shipments have been "limited" as well (i.e. pretty near to actual sales), probably due to New 3DS launch incoming in the West and not wanting to have too many old models on shelves.

Not that sales haven't been down YOY, mind you, but what happened last year had a lasting effect on shipments this year.
 
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