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[pulicat]

Nintendo Switch 2 likely to remain scarce until next spring: analysts

Console sells twice as fast as original in first few days, but demand could slow

asia.nikkei.com

Nintendo's Switch 2 game console, which is selling at a record pace and remains elusive in shops a month after its release, may not become easier to purchase until the spring, say analysts who project sales of 18 million to 20 million units this fiscal year.

Nintendo's official online store in Japan began accepting applications for a fifth lottery sale of the Switch 2 on Wednesday. Many people who lost previous lotteries appear to be applying, but a mood of resignation pervades social media, with some complaining that they keep striking out no matter how many times they apply.

Some major Japanese retailers like Yodobashi Camera have started first-come, first-served sales in shops, but with strict conditions such as limiting the offer to store credit card holders.

Nintendo aims to sell 15 million units in the 10 months from the June 5 launch to the end of fiscal 2025 -- matching the 10-month total from the release of the original Switch -- but analysts call this figure conservative.

Toyo Securities senior analyst Hideki Yasuda and UBS Securities analyst Zhai Yijia see sales in the first month after the release totaling 6 million units.

Yasuda predicts sales of 20 million units in fiscal 2025 while Zhai projects 18 million, indicating a range exceeding sales of the first Switch by 20% to 30%.

Both analysts predict it will be next spring or later before obtaining the Switch 2 at Japanese retailers becomes easier.

 

[powder]

Who cares

 

[Gameplay Gods Bless]

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

 

[lh032]

probably controlling the stock to show "demand hype" lol

 

[gpn]

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

Which store? None available in my area.

 

[//DEVIL//]

its... available almost everywhere? what kind of shit the author of this article is smoking ?

The only place where it probably can't be found is the Japanese exclusive version of the Switch 2, because it's much cheaper than the standard global version. Maybe the US in some areas too.

 

[AlphaDump]

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

Interesting.. is there any data to support this? Future NPD threads are going to be a wild regardless.

 

[blacktout]

probably controlling the stock to show "demand hype" lol

It looks like Nintendo shipped between 5 and 6 million units in one month. How much stock would they have to release in order for you to believe that they're not trying to manufacture FOMO?

 

[hououinkyouma00]

How many people are gonna post dumb shit without realizing that this is an article about Japanese availability.

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

its... available almost everywhere? what kind of shit the author of this article is smoking ?

The only place where it probably can't be found is the Japanese exclusive version of the Switch 2, because it's much cheaper than the standard global version. Maybe the US in some areas too.

There's nothing available anywhere near me for at least 50 miles.

I already have one though so I personally don't care.

 

[Dacvak]

Where do people live that they're apparently easy to get? In every major store, there are literally none available right now when I search in a maximum mile radius in each app. I tried my parents' address too, and they live in a more rural area five states away, and nothing.

And I know that at least a few Walmarts in Northern California haven't gotten ANY in for a couple weeks.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get, but I have yet to see anyone snap a screenshot of them being available right now in their area. I'd love to see that, cause it'd be cool if they were actually available.

 

[Arsic]

Where do people live that they're apparently easy to get? In every major store, there are literally none available right now when I search in a maximum mile radius in each app. I tried my parents' address too, and they live in a more rural area five states away, and nothing.

And I know that at least a few Walmarts in Northern California haven't gotten ANY in for a couple weeks.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get, but I have yet to see anyone snap a screenshot of them being available right now in their area. I'd love to see that, cause it'd be cool if they were actually available.

This. I had to follow online websites for 3 weeks until I finally got mine.

I live in Colorado and it's sold out at every target, Walmart, GameStop, Costco, online retailer etc.

People living in bum fuck nowhere Kansas where no one buys games sure maybe you can find out without a hassle but every metro state/city combo you are shit outta luck.

Unless something changed in a week since I got mine.

 

[Plies]

 

[Kacho]

probably controlling the stock to show "demand hype" lol

Yeah, that must be it.

 

[FalconPunch]

As will the good games…

 

[Super Lemon Drop]

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

Yea. I live in the US and all of the stores in a 20 mile radius of me don't have any Switch 2 consoles. So yea. It's just a Japan thing like this user said, and you can just walk into a store and buy it just fine like this user said.

 

[Buggy Loop]

Yeah, that must be it.

They're not really selling consoles bruh, but by making dozens of kids (because real men don't buy Nintendo, its for kids!) look for the console, they'll go online to whine they couldn't find one and it'll appear as if its in demand. Genius move. IQ 200

 

[Dacvak]

probably controlling the stock to show "demand hype" lol

I've never understood this narrative. People said the same thing about the Wii, when that was verifiably proven to be untrue.

The math simply doesn't work out. The people who claim that Nintendo (or ANY company) are artificially controlling their stock do not understand basic economics, manufacturing, and market valuation.

I'm happy to go into more detail, but there are probably YouTubers who have already done a better job than I could. The short version is that artificial scarcity is essentially never a viable strategy for a mainstay product, and ultimately damages sales in both the short and long term.

 

[Nex240]

Can walk into any store and buy one, Nintendo trying to push FOMO to get people to buy this beta version with a poor screen. Ill wait for the OLED.

 

[pulicat]

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

Nah that just flat out lying. Stock situation is also similar in the US.

 

[Robb]

So I guess stockpiling towards the holidays might not be possible for them in that case?

That'd be a big blow considering that's their biggest quarter historically.

 

[Sakura]

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

Where in the US? None around me here in Canada which is basically the US.

 

[Dacvak]

Can walk into any store and buy one

No, you can't.

 

[pulicat]

probably controlling the stock to show "demand hype" lol

Remember Nintendo Switch artificial scarcity fake news?

 

[rkofan87]

booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

 

[rkofan87]

Who cares

us who do not have 1!?

 

[Topher]

In Japan yea. In the US you can walk into a store and buy it just fine.

Can walk into any store and buy one, Nintendo trying to push FOMO to get people to buy this beta version with a poor screen. Ill wait for the OLED.

Eh....both Target and Best Buy show it sold out. What stores are you two talking about?

 

[rkofan87]

boooooooooooooooo this man.

 

[Plies]

boooooooooooooooo this man.

Buy a PS5 Pro instead.

 

[rkofan87]

Where do people live that they're apparently easy to get? In every major store, there are literally none available right now when I search in a maximum mile radius in each app. I tried my parents' address too, and they live in a more rural area five states away, and nothing.

And I know that at least a few Walmarts in Northern California haven't gotten ANY in for a couple weeks.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get, but I have yet to see anyone snap a screenshot of them being available right now in their area. I'd love to see that, cause it'd be cool if they were actually available.

same in ok what are they talking about?

 

[Dacvak]

So I guess stockpiling towards the holidays might not be possible for them in that case?

That'd be a big blow considering that's their biggest quarter historically.

It's actually quite probable that they are allocating or even holding units/in-production units for holiday sales. This isn't considered artificial scarcity, but simply channel allocation, and all companies with potential supply issues do this.

The important distinction is that they still want to sell every unit they possibly can, but they're not trying to artificially create a shortage. They'd just be timing their logistics to try and supply as many consumers during peak demand. It's standard seasonal inventory management that all major companies take into consideration.

And if anyone takes issue with that, that's just the reality of consumer trends around the holiday, and everybody does it: Nintendo, Sony, Apple, MS, Hasbro, Google, Nike, LEGO, Fisher-Price, Canon, Trader Joe's, etc… Blame capitalism lol.

 

[rkofan87]

Buy a PS5 Pro instead.

already have one and xbox sx

 

[Jesb]

That's ok. There are other devices readily available that offer more value.

 

[rkofan87]

That's ok. There are other devices readily available that offer more value.

umm no you have bc dkb and a nd with more cool shit later this month if not next week.

 

[powder]

us who do not have 1!?

There's so much other shit to play elsewhere, you'll get one eventually and might even regret buying it!

 

[CityHunter1981]

That's only here in Japan and the reason is that Nintendo intentionally put out limited number of units, because first they try to maximum their profit in other regions, where they can sell the console for a higher price…

 

[Vaquilla]

The internet when Nintendo does well

 

[rkofan87]

There's so much other shit to play elsewhere, you'll get one eventually and tmight even regret buying i!

you are right but you lose me with this
might even regret buying i!

 

[Danjin44]

The internet when Nintendo does well

People wanted to original Switch to fail and it didn't and people here got salty about it.

Once again they wanted Switch 2 to fail and once again it didn't and once again they salty about it.

They just never learn.

 

[Topher]

There's so much other shit to play elsewhere, you'll get one eventually and might even regret buying it!

Switch actually compliments other systems really well since it has the least amount of overlap.

 

[rkofan87]

People wanted to original Switch fail and it didn't and people here got salty about.

Once again they wanted Switch 2 to fail and once gain it didn't and once again they salty about it…..again.

They just never learn.

sone of us are salty that we do not have one yet.

 

[powder]

you are right but you lose me with this
might even regret buying i!

It's a lot of money to play Mario Kart. Yeah, there's the GameCube shit but the fact that they're gatekeeping that stuff from being playable on the Switch 1 is fucking lame. Shove the $80 first party games, too. Huge turn off.

 

[powder]

Switch actually compliments other systems really well since it has the least amount of overlap.

I agree with this. I'll probably get one as well for this reason but right now there is no rush.

 

[rkofan87]

It's a lot of money to play Mario Kart. Yeah, there's the GameCube shit but the fact that they're gatekeeping that stuff from being playable on the Switch 1 is fucking lame. Shove the $80 first party games, too. Huge turn off.

dkb bc with the og switch games and more to come.

 

[Dacvak]

Switch actually compliments other systems really well since it has the least amount of overlap.

Exclusives and portability are such a big part of that, too. I've been traveling a lot the last three weeks, and it's been insanely fun to replay BotW on the Switch 2.

I'm still excited to get home and play some new AAA games, but if often feels like it doesn't matter if I'm playing those games on an Xbox, PS5, or PC, since most games release on a combination of those platforms.

 

[rkofan87]

Exclusives and portability are such a big part of that, too. I've been traveling a lot the last three weeks, and it's been insanely fun to replay BotW on the Switch 2.

I'm still excited to get home and play some new AAA games, but if often feels like it doesn't matter if I'm playing those games on an Xbox, PS5, or PC, since most games release on a combination of those platforms.

its dkb and the bc as the reason i want one bad.

 

[Topher]

Exclusives and portability are such a big part of that, too. I've been traveling a lot the last three weeks, and it's been insanely fun to replay BotW on the Switch 2.

I'm still excited to get home and play some new AAA games, but if often feels like it doesn't matter if I'm playing those games on an Xbox, PS5, or PC, since most games release on a combination of those platforms.

Yeah, I'm loving Botw. Performs fantastic and now it is such a clean looking game. Nice thing is I have a lot of Switch 1 games to catch up on. Everything else is going to be on PC for me going forward. Not feeling it from Xbox or PS this gen.

 

[Dacvak]

Yeah, I'm loving Botw. Performs fantastic and now it is such a clean looking game. Nice thing is I have a lot of Switch 1 games to catch up on. Everything else is going to be on PC for me going forward. Not feeling it from Xbox or PS this gen.

Until they release Astro Bot 2, you mean.

 

[rkofan87]

. Nice thing is I have a lot of Switch 1 games to catch up on.

same my switch is back to factory default i looked at my games knowing how good bc is for switch 2 is and like i can wait.
ps yes i did the system transfer.

 

[Topher]

Until they release Astro Bot 2, you mean.

We will see. That's probably a PS6 game at this point.

 

[hemo memo]

??? I've opened amazon just now to check, and both versions are available. The console is widely available. Nintendo came prepared for this launch.