No Post Convention Bounce for Trump

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Kaladin said:
Wouldn't that mean she is behind then? They most certainly are a factor.
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Well, that's a trickier question. Third parties tend to be over represented in polls historically, but you could make the argument that this is not a typical year. In which case, we have no clue about anything ever, and Obama gonna win a fourth term.
 
Yeah most polling does show a convention bump of at least moderate size.

The bigger story, in my opinion - also noted in op's poll - is his improved favorability rating.
 
I believe only one candidate in history has ever had a negative post convention bump McGovern. Kerry was flat but for the most part everyone gets a bump. It's July, summer is not even over yet. Let's have this conversation in September when life gets back to normal and the debates start.
 
Kill3r7 said:
I believe only one candidate in history has ever had a negative post convention bump McGovern. Kerry was flat but for the most part everyone gets a bump. It's July, summer is not even over yet. Let's have this conversation in September when life gets back to normal and the debates start.
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Seriously, this is a poll conducted after one party had their convention but the other hasn't. At least let's wait until the Democrats wrap theirs up and see what type of bump they get.

Folks, check your calendar. It's July 26, not October 26.
 
LUFTRAUSER said:
I'm starting to think Trump could actually win this
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A major terrorist attack in the US before November would likely give him a big enough bounce to win the election. Polls show Americans trust Trump more than Hillary on issues related to defense.
 
Melkr_ said:
When is this mythical two way election happening? Johnson and Stein will receive votes, the 4-way results are the actual likely scenarios.
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The mythical two way election happens through the electoral college which is not totally representative of the popular vote. State electoral votes matter more than popular vote.
 
I will say it seems like voters always "trust" republicans more when it comes to defense/terrorism. In a way, that isn't really anything new. But who knows.
 
Melkr_ said:
This.

When is this mythical two way election happening? Johnson and Stein will receive votes, the 4-way results are the actual likely scenarios.
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They aren't getting more than a couple precentage. Anything above 1 percent for either of them is crazy talk.
 
That wasn't the only poll. Along with CNN, CBS news, LA Times, Gravis, and Rasmussen all have trump up by more than 1. I know rasmussen is sketchy but the poll of polls is reporting trump having a ~1% lead. There definitely is a post convention bump.


Also, previous polls have had republicans severely underrepresented in polls. One poll had republicans at 24% while democrats were at 36%, its a normal thing in polls and depends on the methodology used. Doesn't mean its not accurate.


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StMeph said:
The mythical two way election happens through the electoral college which is not totally representative of the popular vote. State electoral votes matter more than popular vote.
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Right, but people are still voting third party in those states.

Isn't the narrative right now that a 3rd part vote is a vote for Trump? If enough people vote 3rd party in a state and Trump wins that state as a result how are 3rd party votes not a factor?
 
StMeph said:
The mythical two way election happens through the electoral college which is not totally representative of the popular vote. State electoral votes matter more than popular vote.
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The NBC poll is addressing voting share, not electorate college share. As such, making a two-way scenario is useless and unrepresentative when talking about popular vote.

DragonSworne said:
They aren't getting more than a couple precentage. Anything above 1 percent for either of them is crazy talk.
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Polls currently don't show that. When they do yeah, I will agree including them is irrelevant. But when Johnson is pulling double digits and Stein 5%, they should be considered in every single poll to factually represent the possible voting results scenario
 
So as a non-American, do you guys just pick a side somewhere in your teens and vote for that one until you die? Is that what is going on? Because from what I saw, Trump is both completely incompetent and poised to be the scariest president ever based on his general campaigning so far.

I refuse to believe half of American voters actually want a guy like that as president, so all I can imagine is people just pick a "home team" and stick with regardless and it doesn't really matter who the person that runs for president is. I mean, they could elect a goat as their representative and people would vote for the goat as POTUS as long as it was a Republican goat, right? That is what going on?
 
Flo_Evans said:
Right, but people are still voting third party in those states.

Isn't the narrative right now that a 3rd part vote is a vote for Trump? If enough people vote 3rd party in a state and Trump wins that state as a result how are 3rd party votes not a factor?
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Ironically, the third parties are touting success in attempting to court disillusioned GOPers and Dems, arguing they should vote someone who REALLY represents them, while simultaneously doing a total garbage job at explaining why Greens/Libertarians represent them better than the big two.

Stein in particular has been exceptionally bad on this, mutating her entire platform into "fuck the Democrats in particular" and making virtually no signals on policy. I don't see their respective surges lasting very long.
 
Aiii said:
So as a non-American, do you guys just pick a side somewhere in your teens and vote for that one until you die? Is that what is going on? Because from what I saw, Trump is both completely incompetent and poised to be the scariest president ever based on his general campaigning so far.

I refuse to believe half of American voters actually want a guy like that as president, so all I can imagine is people just pick a "home team" and stick with regardless and it doesn't really matter who the person that runs for president is. I mean, they could elect a goat as their representative and people would vote for the goat as POTUS as long as it was a Republican goat, right? That is what going on?
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Honestly, yeah. A lot of people hate trump but are voting for him simply to get republican supreme court seats and are hoping that his crazier policies are blocked by congress.
 
Ithil said:
Luckily no one in the world hates Trump.
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Not everyone that hates him is going to vote for Hillary Clinton because they hate her as well, and a lot of people that do hate Trump were going to vote for Hillary anyway so it doesn't help her or weaken him.
glow said:
A major terrorist attack in the US before November would likely give him a big enough bounce to win the election. Polls show Americans trust Trump more than Hillary on issues related to defense.
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Which is sad, because a Trump presidency could see the weakening of NATO and make the world a less safe place. Though his LAW AND ORDER policies might make the United States "safer", provided you're white of course, and a lot of Americans don't care about the rest of the world anyway.
 
Aiii said:
So as a non-American, do you guys just pick a side somewhere in your teens and vote for that one until you die? Is that what is going on? Because from what I saw, Trump is both completely incompetent and poised to be the scariest president ever based on his general campaigning so far.

I refuse to believe half of American voters actually want a guy like that as president, so all I can imagine is people just pick a "home team" and stick with regardless and it doesn't really matter who the person that runs for president is. I mean, they could elect a goat as their representative and people would vote for the goat as POTUS as long as it was a Republican goat, right? That is what going on?
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You act like this is some uniquely USA phenomenon. Where do you live?
 
Was reading Sam Wang yesterday, and the aggregate has him with a 4% bump which is smaller than the traditional 5% bump. Don't look at just one poll. Always look at the aggregate.
 
Why does this matter? You need to win states not a general popularity vote.

The question is who will win ohio, north carolina, florida etc.
 
Aiii said:
So as a non-American, do you guys just pick a side somewhere in your teens and vote for that one until you die? Is that what is going on? Because from what I saw, Trump is both completely incompetent and poised to be the scariest president ever based on his general campaigning so far.

I refuse to believe half of American voters actually want a guy like that as president, so all I can imagine is people just pick a "home team" and stick with regardless and it doesn't really matter who the person that runs for president is. I mean, they could elect a goat as their representative and people would vote for the goat as POTUS as long as it was a Republican goat, right? That is what going on?
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Um this happens in EVERY nation with political parties. I still don't know WHY the US gets singled out with this bs. Must be cause we're more important than anyone else :-D
 
Kill3r7 said:
I believe only one candidate in history has ever had a negative post convention bump McGovern. Kerry was flat but for the most part everyone gets a bump. It's July, summer is not even over yet. Let's have this conversation in September when life gets back to normal and the debates start.
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I've been hearing "It's way to early for this talk. Get back to me in three months" every month for the past year.
 
Afrodium said:
I've been hearing "It's way to early for this talk. Get back to me in three months" every month for the past year.
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Polls grow more important the closer we get to the election. National GE polling is more noteworthy now than it was two months ago, and it'll be more noteworthy two months from now. But this is especially tricky polling time, coming off the heels of the first party convention but before the second. A bump was expected.
 
LUFTRAUSER said:
I'm starting to think Trump could actually win this.

A lot of people really like Trump. A lot of people really hate Clinton.
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Oh he will win, racism in the U.S. will take care of that. They say that racism is dead... the answer to that will be revealed after we get the results for the election.
Racism in the U.S. is alive an kicking harder than it ever has
 
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