No Post Convention Bounce for Trump

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Seriously, this is a poll conducted after one party had their convention but the other hasn't. At least let's wait until the Democrats wrap theirs up and see what type of bump they get.

Folks, check your calendar. It's July 26, not October 26.

Err....

I've been hearing "It's way to early for this talk. Get back to me in three months" every month for the past year.

This!

I've never seen a politician more underestimated than Trump. This "wait till ____" is counterproductive. The tide needs to change and it needs to start changing sooner rather than later.
 
Err....



This!

I've never seen a politician more underestimated than Trump. This "wait till ____" is counterproductive. The tide needs to change and it needs to start changing sooner rather than later.

And? Nobody was taking national GE polling seriously a year ago, Trump's rise was supported by polling Republican primary voters. The hypothetical GE matchups then were, like, Joe Biden versus Jeb Bush.

Yes, the summer of election years is when people start tuning into national polling, once both primary processes have been settled. But there's still plenty of election milestones yet to cross before election day, such as the Democratic National Convention and three debates. To say that polling is settled before any of those conclude is a little premature.
 
And? Nobody was taking national GE polling seriously a year ago, Trump's rise was supported by polling Republican primary voters. The hypothetical GE matchups then were, like, Joe Biden versus Jeb Bush.

Yes, the summer of election years is when people start tuning into national polling, once both primary processes have been settled. But there's still plenty of election milestones yet to cross before election day, such as the Democratic National Convention and three debates. To say that polling is settled before any of those conclude is a little premature.

Of course polling is not settled, but people are acting like it's no big deal and Trump has no chance of winning.
 
I've been hearing "It's way to early for this talk. Get back to me in three months" every month for the past year.

I don't know how you've been hearing this when the general campaigning basically just started.

Of course polling is not settled, but people are acting like it's no big deal and Trump has no chance of winning.

No chance =/= slim chance

I've never seen a politician more underestimated than Trump. This "wait till ____" is counterproductive. The tide needs to change and it needs to start changing sooner rather than later.

He was always ahead in the primary polls. He's almost never been ahead in the general polls, except for recently, which were polls based after the RNC, as well as one that excludes a key demographic, as well as lagging behind in key individual states. Underestimation and extreme panic doesn't have to go hand-in-hand.
 
Of course polling is not settled, but people are acting like it's no big deal and Trump has no chance of winning.

I agree that shaking people out of complacency might be good, as Clinton was coasting on a month of favorable polling and people started laughing off any idea of Trump winning. So I'm not trying to suggest Trump has no chance of winning. But still, individual polls right off of party conventions are not immediate indicators. RNC or DNC, generally everyone gets a bump.
 
You act like this is some uniquely USA phenomenon. Where do you live?

Um this happens in EVERY nation with political parties. I still don't know WHY the US gets singled out with this bs. Must be cause we're more important than anyone else :-D

I live in the Netherlands. We have multiple parties, like most nations, and if you are, for example, a liberal, there are at least three parties you can vote for. If you are conservative, there are two, socialist about four. All on various degrees of their spectrum.

So yes, it is far less common to pick one side and then stick with it for decades. Policies change, you change, the parties leadership changes.

Furthermore, we operate in coalition's, it is nigh impossible for a single party and often even two parties to get a majority of the votes needed to become the cabinet.

I am sure it's not restricted to the USA, but I am also confident that this is way less common then you think due to the nature of your political system compared to most of the rest of the Western countries tbh.
 
Same rhetoric all through the primaries about how we could never be where we are today.

While I agree that this election is a fight and should treated as such...

The Primary Election Is Not The General Election And Polling Mostly Predicted Trump's Victory

Until I see him consistently leading in polls in crucial states and the emergence of a viable map to victory, I'm not going to work myself up into a counterproductive panic.
 
How could it be the same when he always lead in the polls, and the primaries function very differently than the general?

Because in this topic were discussing how Trump is polling competitively with Clinton and I was initially responding to a poster stating that polls this far out are unreliable. During the primaries people were constantly claiming that Trump's lead in the polls meant nothing and that Republicans would settle on a safe choice somewhere down the line.
 
Right. I had this discussion with my cousin last night. Can you actually support trump and not be racist? We didn't think so.

I'm black and I support Trump. I don't think he himself is racist. Stop lumping everyone who supports him into your "racist and ignorant" category.

People have differing opinions. The end.
 
Because in this topic were discussing how Trump is polling competitively with Clinton and I was initially responding to a poster stating that polls this far out are unreliable. During the primaries people were constantly claiming that Trump's lead in the polls meant nothing and that Republicans would settle on a safe choice somewhere down the line.

So, the fact that Clinton has lead most of the general election polls, still leads in key states, and the polls in which Trump leads comes both after a convention bump and with certain demographics skewed, it's meaningless because this was said in the primaries where Trump was always ahead in polls? Well, okay.
 
A crazy girl I work with used #NotYourMule in a facebook post. Logic being that she didn't agree with the racism, but since she's white it doesn't bother her. But her crazy logic is the only reason it doesn't bother her is because black people used it on Oscar(?) night in regard to asians and latinos.

I didn't even have words.
 
I'm black and I support Trump. I don't think he himself is racist. Stop lumping everyone who supports him into your "racist and ignorant" category.

People have differing opinions. The end.

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I've been hearing "It's way to early for this talk. Get back to me in three months" every month for the past year.

Okay, let's say he has a legitimate chance to win. If you start getting people galvanized and getting them all pumped up to vote for Hillary today or next week you are bound to lose steam by the time November 8th rolls around. Should we be concerned? Absolutely but if you think that convincing your friends and family to vote for Hillary today will guarantee a vote on election day you are mistaken. They are more likely to tune you out than to hear your pleas for sanity.

The good news is that most college kids will be going back to school over the next couple of weeks where they will be bombarded by volunteers trying to get them to register to vote. Assuming they register, it is in late September and October when you want to remind them to go out and vote on election day which is November. Then on election day you can take drastic steps such as reaching out to them on social media to make sure they voted.
 
Wouldn't that mean she is behind then? They most certainly are a factor.

I mean, they're a "factor" in that polls show people voting for them, but people aren't voting for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in those numbers in November.
 
I'm black and I support Trump. I don't think he himself is racist. Stop lumping everyone who supports him into your "racist and ignorant" category.

People have differing opinions. The end.

Lol ok trumps not racist, contrary to the mounds of evidence that say otherwise.

I'm sure you're not racist, but you sure as hell support a man that is.

 

Excuse you, for telling me or anyone else, to "sit down."

None of those quotes get me riled up in the least. Sure, he has said some non PC shit, but I don't think the guy actually dislikes black people. He says alot of the things black people say about other black people, or any other race for that matter. Regardless of that, I prefer him in general to Hillary.
 
And he's publicly rebuked his support.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/24/politics/donald-trump-david-duke-louisiana-senate/

If Wall Street is lining up behind Hillary (which it is) does that mean she is in Wall Streets pocket? I mean she is but you can't just jump to conclusions.

they are supporting him because he is using the same dog whistle language, retweeting their tweets and is making the entire campaign about how everyone not white is causing the downfall of America.

It doesn't take much to connect the dots (oh and his racial discrimination lawsuits)
 
And he's publicly rebuked his support.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/24/politics/donald-trump-david-duke-louisiana-senate/

If Wall Street is lining up behind Hillary (which it is) does that mean she is in Wall Streets pocket? I mean she is but you can't just jump to conclusions.

He eventually rebuked his support.

At first he tried to handwave it off, pretending he had no idea who David Duke was, then quietly issued a press release later saying he didn't hear the name (despite repeating it).
 
So, the fact that Clinton has lead most of the general election polls, still leads in key states, and the polls in which Trump leads comes both after a convention bump and with certain demographics skewed, it's meaningless because this was said in the primaries where Trump was always ahead in polls? Well, okay.

I hope your right but I really don't understand why you're aggressively telling me to be complacent towards the candidate I'm assuming you support.
 
Excuse you, for telling me or anyone else, to "sit down."

None of those quotes get me riled up in the least. Sure, he has said some non PC shit, but I don't think the guy actually dislikes black people. He says alot of the things black people say about other black people, or any other race for that matter. Regardless of that, I prefer him in general to Hillary.

Just ignore them. You vote how you want for your own reasons.

I'm not voting for Trump but the lefts anger at anyone who doesn't vote the way they want someone to is rather annoying. The Albatross' post earlier today is a great summary of what is going on.
 
"omg people don't agree with me with my political choice!! you're racist and ignorant!!!!"
Just be honest with yourself dude.

Excuse you, for telling me or anyone else, to "sit down."

None of those quotes get me riled up in the least. Sure, he has said some non PC shit, but I don't think the guy actually dislikes black people. He says alot of the things black people say about other black people, or any other race for that matter. Regardless of that, I prefer him in general to Hillary.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...k-five-donald-trump-jogger-rape-case-new-york

Yusef Salaam was 15 years old when Donald Trump demanded his execution for a crime he did not commit
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Yusef Salaam was 15 years old when Donald Trump demanded his execution for a crime he did not commit.
Yusef Salaam was 15 years old when Donald Trump demanded his execution for a crime he did not commit.

Actively discouraging giving jobs and apartments to black people surely isn't an indication of racism at all.

The fucking gall of people to say that thisis only "non pc." Fucking disgusting. >:( If none of this shit doesn't get you riled up then that says a shit ton about you as a person, and every other person like you. Dude actively said that black people are lazy, that includes you, you're literally supporting someone who wants to take away your rights and is actively insulting you, your family, your children, your grandchildren, etc.
 
Just ignore them. You vote how you want for your own reasons.

I'm not voting for Trump but the lefts anger at anyone who doesn't vote the way they want someone to is rather annoying. The Albatross' post earlier today is a great summary of what is going on.

If he wants to share he gets to deal with the criticism.

Heaven forbid we expresa fear or anger about a fascist getting elected.
 
Excuse you, for telling me or anyone else, to "sit down."

None of those quotes get me riled up in the least. Sure, he has said some non PC shit, but I don't think the guy actually dislikes black people. He says alot of the things black people say about other black people, or any other race for that matter. Regardless of that, I prefer him in general to Hillary.

“Laziness is a trait in blacks.” doesn't get you riled up in the least? Really? Okie dokie.
 
I'm black and I support Trump. I don't think he himself is racist. Stop lumping everyone who supports him into your "racist and ignorant" category.

People have differing opinions. The end.
Sorry you are lumped in to it because hey the truth hurts. Voting for Trump is being okay with racism and everything else he stands for.

Just ignore them. You vote how you want for your own reasons.

I'm not voting for Trump but the lefts anger at anyone who doesn't vote the way they want someone to is rather annoying. The Albatross' post earlier today is a great summary of what is going on.
It's not really, it's a pretty meh article.
 
Excuse you, for telling me or anyone else, to "sit down."

None of those quotes get me riled up in the least. Sure, he has said some non PC shit, but I don't think the guy actually dislikes black people. He says alot of the things black people say about other black people, or any other race for that matter. Regardless of that, I prefer him in general to Hillary.

For the masses


At what point do alarmists like you realize that those who aren't worried aren't "pretending."

Maybe you're worried, which is fine. Go stand on a building and yell from the rooftops how worried you are. But I'm waiting until after both conventions settle before getting worried. Of course, I'd still love that +8 Hillary lead right now, but it's not there.

I think what's most perplexing for the people who are really worried on Gaf is that in the echo chamber of the RNC thread, you had 98% of posts saying "Worst convention ever! What a shit show! What a failure! This is horrible for Trump! Horrible for Republicans! Terrible speech, worst ever, he's done!" So everybody comes out feeling really good about themselves, patting themselves on the back, and congratulating each other for all reaching the same group-think opinion. And then when people get brief glimpses to the world outside their own echo chamber, they're at a loss for how to rectify their perception of the truth and the actual truth. The actual truth is that Trump's doom and gloom speech resonated with a lot of people who aren't just extreme right racist crazies (because if it only resonated with them, then there wouldnt have been a bump: they're voting for Trump already), Cruz' "vote your conscience" bolstered Trump despite NeoGaf saying "This is the end of Trump," and the raucus second day where the dirty laundry of a voice vote on party rules got defeated gave Trump momentum despite that the prevailing opinion here was that it was "chaos" and "a party revolt against Trump." This isn't just a NeoGaf phenomenon, it's an internet echo chamber phenomenon. We self select to be around people who agree with us, social media algorithms filter news and content so that it's agreeable to us, and platforms like Google Now deliver us news that is agreeable to us. We convince ourselves that everybody who disagrees is the "other," crazy, racist, sexist, mad, but if that were true, then there could be no convention bump for Trump, so it's not true.

And this also causes us to worry that there will be no convention bump for Hillary because we're surrounded by people who agree with us, who are likely already voting for Clinton, and so it can't change anything. But, at the end of 4 or 5 days, let's take a step back and take a look.

Doesn't mean you can't feel worried, you have every right to feel however you want, but stop implying that it's the people who are worried who are deluded or "pretending" about anything.
 
Nah. Political opinions ain't just like a favorite sports team.

You wanna share your political beliefs? People will criticize.

Good for them. Criticize away. It goes both ways. Far too many people are jumping all over Trump supporters for being ignorant, racist, etc, when they themselves are being ignorant by lumping everyone together.
 
Excuse you, for telling me or anyone else, to "sit down."

I tell people to "sit down" when they clearly have no fucking idea what they are talking about.

None of those quotes get me riled up in the least. Sure, he has said some non PC shit, but I don't think the guy actually dislikes black people. He says alot of the things black people say about other black people, or any other race for that matter. Regardless of that, I prefer him in general to Hillary.

That's fine that it doesn't get you riled up or whatever but saying shit like laziness is a trait in "the blacks" or that he doesn't want "the blacks" handling his money...if that shit isn't racist, please explain Professor Of All Things Racist, what is it?
 
Excuse you, for telling me or anyone else, to "sit down."

None of those quotes get me riled up in the least. Sure, he has said some non PC shit, but I don't think the guy actually dislikes black people. He says alot of the things black people say about other black people, or any other race for that matter. Regardless of that, I prefer him in general to Hillary.

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