North Korea just shelled them some South Korea

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Pre said:
Anyone have any updates on the situation? Finding information from the American media is proving to be quite difficult.

And a question: Be honest with me - is there a real chance that we might be a week or two away from entering a war with North Korea?
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short of NK hitting US or SK military there won't be a war. NK is trying to up ante for later negations and aid.
 
Anyone have any updates on the situation? Finding information from the American media is proving to be quite difficult.

And a question: Be honest with me - is there a real chance that we might be a week or two away from entering a war with North Korea?
Click to expand...

I live in South Korea and I can honestly say no.

I hope I didn't just jinx it.
 
Pre said:
Anyone have any updates on the situation? Finding information from the American media is proving to be quite difficult.

And a question: Be honest with me - is there a real chance that we might be a week or two away from entering a war with North Korea?
Click to expand...

Extremely doubtful. The country will quite likely collapse when Kim Jong-Il kicks the bucket, but that will lead to more of a humanitarian crisis than a military one.
 
Tristam said:
Extremely doubtful. The country will quite likely collapse when Kim Jong-Il kicks the bucket, but that will lead to more of a humanitarian crisis than a military one.
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Haha what.

No one really knows how volatile the in-fighting of NK is. If the country 'collapses' the military doesn't just disappear. Things could get ugly VERY easily without any interference from us.
 
BudokaiMR2 said:
Haha what.

No one really knows how volatile the in-fighting of NK is. If the country 'collapses' the military doesn't just disappear. Things could get ugly VERY easily without any interference from us.
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who's going to fight for them? Most of the population is essentially in the army in one way or another so a revolution would probably mean them revolting too, but not with loyalty to the army, but loyalty to themselves.
 
BudokaiMR2 said:
Haha what.

No one really knows how volatile the in-fighting of NK is. If the country 'collapses' the military doesn't just disappear. Things could get ugly VERY easily without any interference from us.
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Of course things could (and most certainly would) get ugly, but in-fighting among the Norks doesn't really present an outside threat, which is why I termed it a humanitarian rather than military crisis.

EDIT: I do also think that all throughout this thread people have vastly overestimated the discipline and cohesion of North Korea's military. The average soldier is hardly better fed than the average civilian, and he's hardly any happier.
 
I guess you haven't read the thread then? I have never assumed such. I think we could sway tons of people just by delivering food and fresh water in that country. Including soldiers.

But it doesn't take a well-fed disciplined and happy soldier to participate in any in-fighting.
Desperation usually brings out the WORST in people and not the BEST.

Honestly, this is a mystery to pretty much everyone on the planet unless there are some kind of spy networks in place. We don't know much about real NK politics besides what they tell us.

And it would always turn into a military move just because of the fact of how many weapons there are in place. It could easily spill over into SK and even into Seoul so we would have to at least fortify the border and sea lanes.
 
BudokaiMR2 said:
I guess you haven't read the thread then? I have never assumed such. I think we could sway tons of people just by delivering food and fresh water in that country. Including soldiers.

But it doesn't take a well-fed disciplined and happy soldier to participate in any in-fighting.
Desperation usually brings out the WORST in people and not the BEST.

Honestly, this is a mystery to pretty much everyone on the planet unless there are some kind of spy networks in place. We don't know much about real NK politics besides what they tell us.

And it would always turn into a military move just because of the fact of how many weapons there are in place. It could easily spill over into SK and even into Seoul so we would have to at least fortify the border and sea lanes.
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I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying; I'm only saying that we won't be dealing with any unified force in the event of collapse (because the military will be busy fighting itself) and a few stray missiles fired by a handful of rogue crazies is preferable to the standard North v. South war that I'm saying will (almost certainly) not happen.
 
Pre said:
And a question: Be honest with me - is there a real chance that we might be a week or two away from entering a war with North Korea?
Click to expand...
I don't think it will happen since China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are all too busy being engaged in economic development to really want to be a part of a regional war that will destabilize the economies there.

I'd think that none of the parties involved really want war to break out in the region as it would have long term consequences for their economies especially South Korea if they will eventually have to integrate the North Koreans.
 
Interesting New York Times article about how South Korean and Chinese officials view North Korea's future, at least in private talks with each other and their communications with the U.S., based on WikiLeaks leaks.

http://nyti.ms/hRu4Le
 
aerts1js said:
I live in South Korea and I can honestly say no.

I hope I didn't just jinx it.
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based on what? gut feeling? or some kind of facts?
 
WikiLeaks: China weary of North Korea behaving like 'spoiled child'

(CNN) -- New documents posted on the websites of the Guardian and The New York Times suggest Chinese officials are losing patience with long-time ally North Korea. Senior figures in Beijing have even described the regime in the North as behaving like a "spoiled child."

According to cables obtained by WikiLeaks, South Korea's then vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, said earlier this year that senior Chinese officials (whose names are redacted in the cables) had told him they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

Chun was quoted at length in a cable sent by the U.S. ambassador in Seoul, Kathleen Stephens, earlier this year. He is reported as saying that "the North had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of (leader) Kim Jong-il."

CNN has viewed the cables posted on the newspapers' websites and on the WikiLeaks website.

Chun, who has since become South Korea's National Security Adviser, dismissed the prospect of China's military intervention in the event of a North Korean collapse, noting that "China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan, and South Korea -- not North Korea."

He said that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington.

In a separate cable from January this year, then-South Korean Foreign Mnister Yu Myung-Hwan is quoted as telling U.S. diplomats that "the North Korean leader [Kim Jong Il] needed both Chinese economic aid and political support to stabilize an 'increasingly chaotic' situation at home."

The cables suggest China is frustrated in its relationship with Pyongyang. One from April 2009 quoted Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei as saying that "North Korea wanted to engage directly with the United States and was therefore acting like a "spoiled child" in order to get the attention of the "adult." The cable continued: "China therefore encouraged the United States, 'after some time,' to start to re-engage the DPRK."

In October 2009, a cable sent from Beijing recounted a meeting between U.S. diplomats and Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, who had recently met Kim Jong Il. According to the leaked cable, Dai noted that Kim had lost weight when compared to when he last saw him three years earlier, but that Kim appeared to be in reasonably good health and still had a "sharp mind."

Dai also spoke about Kim's liking for alcohol. The cable continued: "Kim Jong-il had a reputation among the Chinese for being 'quite a good drinker,' and, Dai said, he had asked Kim if he still drank alcohol. Kim said yes."

The North Koreans told Dai that they wanted to have dialogue with the United States first and that they would consider next steps, including possible multilateral talks, depending on their conversation with the United States. North Korea held "great expectations for the United States," said Dai.

Further evidence of China's unease at Pyongyang's behavior came in a cable in June 2009 from the U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Richard Hoagland. He reported that the Chinese envoy there was "genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent nuclear missile tests," and saw its nuclear activity a 'threat to the whole world's security.'" Hoagland reported that China's objectives were "to ensure they [North Korean leaders] honor their commitments on non-proliferation, maintain stability, and 'don't drive [Kim Jong-il] mad.'"

It seems the Russians were similarly frustrated by North Korean obduracy. In April 2009, a U.S. diplomatic cable quoted a senior Russian official as saying that "Foreign Minister Lavrov had a difficult trip to North Korea that did not reveal any flexibility in DPRK's position." The Russian official assessed that Pyongyang was "hunkering down for a succession crisis."
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Random question: when nation leaders visit each other they usually communicate in English right? I wonder which language the Chinese and Koreans use when they talk. Translators, English, or one or the other?
 
"China therefore encouraged the United States, 'after some time,' to start to re-engage the DPRK."
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this is a nugget worth highlighting
 
I thought this was interesting from the NYT article:

Over an official lunch in late February, a top South Korean official confidently told the American ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, that the fall would come “two to three years” after the death of Kim Jong-il, the country’s ailing leader, Ms. Stephens later cabled Washington. A new, younger generation of Chinese leaders “would be comfortable with a reunited Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a benign alliance,” the diplomat, Chun Yung-woo, predicted.

But if Seoul was destined to control the entire Korean Peninsula for the first time since the end of World War II, China — the powerful ally that keeps the North alive with food and fuel — would have to be placated. So South Korea was already planning to assure Chinese companies that they would have ample commercial opportunities in the mineral-rich northern part of the peninsula.

As for the United States, the cable said, “China would clearly ‘not welcome’ any U.S. military presence north of the DMZ,” the heavily mined demarcation line that now divides the two Koreas.
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I guess it addresses Zeke's point above.
 
this also goes hand-in-hand with GWB's decision throughout most of his administration to refuse bilateral discussions with NK and focus instead on multiparty talks. very interesting to see that some Chinese diplomats agreed with that sentiment.
 
Zeke said:
crazy of China to say that knowing that if anything were to happen they would have US troops on their doorstep.
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US troops are already on their doorstep.. we have bases in Japan, and SK the PI and Guam... wouldn't change a damn thing for them. Also there is NO way for the US to attack and hold China.. so they have nothing to worry about
 
Any of the recent wiki leaks make a difference in this confrontation? The only thing I could find was this.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/29/wikileaks.new.documents/index.html?hpt=T1

(CNN) -- New documents posted on the websites of the Guardian and The New York Times suggest Chinese officials are losing patience with long-time ally North Korea. Senior figures in Beijing have even described the regime in the North as behaving like a "spoiled child."

t1largchinakoreaafpgi.jpg
 
I wonder what Jong-il will do with the fact that China is sick of propping them up from time to time. Make him desperate? Doubtful, but plausible. They probably feel sort of isolated with their most powerful ally talking shit.
 
Sometimes when I have my tinfoil hat on, I imagine China and the US working out a backdoor deal giving China total control over Taiwan in exchange for letting North Korea unify into a democratic Korea.
 
Blackace said:
US troops are already on their doorstep.. we have bases in Japan, and SK the PI and Guam... wouldn't change a damn thing for them. Also there is NO way for the US to attack and hold China.. so they have nothing to worry about
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yea but now you're talking about an increased number of troops and equipment moving freely in NK territory. Not saying the US would try and enter China that's a dumb move all the way around. Then again they know they have the US by the balls financially speaking so maybe aren't too worried about that.
Jenga said:
I wonder what Jong-il will do with the fact that China is sick of propping them up from time to time. Make him desperate? Doubtful, but plausible. They probably feel sort of isolated with their most powerful ally talking shit.
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was wondering this too I wonder if Kim flipped out or what he said to his inner circle about it.
 
Zeke said:
yea but now you're talking about an increased number of troops and equipment moving freely in NK territory. Not saying the US would try and enter China that's a dumb move all the way around. Then again they know they have the US by the balls financially speaking so maybe aren't too worried about that.

was wondering this too I wonder if Kim flipped out or what he said to his inner circle about it.
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China is moving into the 21st century. North Korea isn't. At this point NK is probably more of a burden for China than anything.
 
BertramCooper said:
Yeah, I think it's safe to say that China's allegiance to North Korea is purely historical. North Korea is nothing but a liability to them.
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It's politically important for the Communist Party of China (the ruling, and in practice, only party in mainland China) to support a fellow communist regime--especially a neighboring one.

China also enjoys the buffer from South Korea and its allied US forces.
 
Zefah said:
It's politically important for the Communist Party of China (the ruling, and in practice, only party in mainland China) to support a fellow communist regime--especially a neighboring one.

China also enjoys the buffer from South Korea and its allied US forces.
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They don't give a fuck anymore. The status quo is to their advantage for now, but NK isn't anything they'll lose sleep over.
 
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
Not really, they had no problems invading Vietnam.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War
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And the days of ideological communism within China are long gone.. Since the Deng Xiaopeng era of market reform, they aren't truly communist, and they know it. I don't think they care about ideology... just practical concerns. As Xiaopeng said: "I do not care if the cat is black or white, what matters is it catches mice"
 
wienke said:
Sometimes when I have my tinfoil hat on, I imagine China and the US working out a backdoor deal giving China total control over Taiwan in exchange for letting North Korea unify into a democratic Korea.
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No.
 
Zefah said:
Obviously this doesn't apply when said neighbor is hostile and in bed with your enemy. There were various reasons for the brief conflict between China and Vietnam, which I'm sure you've already read about in the link you posted.
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True, but the whole neighboring aspect worked too well with your comments. :D Even with that said, I could still see China deciding it doesn't give a crap and launching a limited incursion to scorched earth to prevent refugees or even regular people from settling near the border or leaving.
 
The thing to realize as some of the cables point out is its the new younger leadership within the Chinese government that is growing tired of North Korea acting like a spoiled child.

Whats happening in reality is the less hardline communists open to a more democratic society are finally taking over through the old diehards kicking the bucket. As the Old Guard dies off China is going to increasingly shift perspective. I dont expect a true democracy to emerge but China is evolving for the better overall and Old Guard style North Korea is not something New Age China gives a shit about
 
antonz said:
The thing to realize as some of the cables point out is its the new younger leadership within the Chinese government that is growing tired of North Korea acting like a spoiled child.

Whats happening in reality is the less hardline communists open to a more democratic society are finally taking over through the old diehards kicking the bucket. As the Old Guard dies off China is going to increasingly shift perspective. I dont expect a true democracy to emerge but China is evolving for the better overall and Old Guard style North Korea is not something New Age China gives a shit about
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Democracy is not on the table in China anytime soon. Free markets and such, sure. You are probably right about the new generation getting tired of NK though.
 
antonz said:
Whats happening in reality is the less hardline communists open to a more democratic society are finally taking over through the old diehards kicking the bucket. As the Old Guard dies off China is going to increasingly shift perspective. I dont expect a true democracy to emerge but China is evolving for the better overall and Old Guard style North Korea is not something New Age China gives a shit about
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How do you know? Honestly curious, since gaging the trajectory of China is extremely difficult.
 
BocoDragon said:
Democracy is not on the table in China anytime soon. Free markets and such, sure. You are probably right about the new generation getting tired of NK though.
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It was explained to me that historically China alway had one leader with the emperors. They don't have democracy (yet) so it's business as usual.
 
bonesmccoy said:
How do you know? Honestly curious, since gaging the trajectory of China is extremely difficult.
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Obviously no one knows for sure, but when the majority of your massive population is impoverished and unhappy with their plight, you probably wouldn't want democratic elections if you were someone in power.
 
dreamcastmaster said:
China has changed a lot in the last 10 years. They might have had no problem doing that back in the 70's.
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I don't see how China would have any problem doing the same thing. I mean look at how the handled ethnic conflict situations in the last couple of years. Look I wouldn't blame them for it too much. I mean would you want the crap that is a collapsed NK streaming into or near your border.
 
bonesmccoy said:
How do you know? Honestly curious, since gaging the trajectory of China is extremely difficult.
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Well im just basing this mostly on the leaked diplomatic communication. Younger China leadership has shown itself to be more open minded. They are not totally open but they are not the close minded die hard communist to the death type from what I can see.

North Korea has little to offer them for the headache it causes. South Korea being willing to agree on trade deals etc if they take over the North shows they have a reasonable partner instead of a crazy nuke seeking old man.

The US has an opportunity in this all to finally pull out of Korea too if this can be worked out
 
dreamcastmaster said:
It was explained to me that historically China alway had one leader with the emperors. They don't have democracy (yet) so it's business as usual.
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There's probably a grain of truth to that!
 
antonz said:
The US has an opportunity in this all to finally pull out of Korea too if this can be worked out
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US will never fully pull out of South Korea.

Their presence there as far as a friendly port for its naval vessels and to have air bases is too strategic to relinquish. In addition, Japan, even though they don't necessarily want them on their soil, likes having them in South Korea.

Despite South Korea's ability to defend themselves and retaliate to an attack, its nice to have a sledgehammer in the back pocket. The mere presence of so much US personnel in SK provides a deterrent as well.

Sinking a ROK Naval ship is one thing, do something bad to a US carrier battle group is an entire larger, angrier nest of hornets.
 
dreamcastmaster said:
It was explained to me that historically China alway had one leader with the emperors. They don't have democracy (yet) so it's business as usual.
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Chinese history is peppered with lame-duck "Emperors" with only the slightest nominal authority over local Kings or Dukes or other tributary states.
 
Blackace said:
US troops are already on their doorstep.. we have bases in Japan, and SK the PI and Guam... wouldn't change a damn thing for them. Also there is NO way for the US to attack and hold China.. so they have nothing to worry about
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I thought the last US base in the PI closed in the early 90's, could be wrong though
 
China does not operate on ideals much anymore. People have such warped ideas about the country. They are all about shrewd decisions now--they just go about it in a very different way than a lot of the world.

Smiles and Cries said:
that is some unexpected views from China too bad the people of NK will never see any of it
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Not unexpected at all. They're not idiots. NK has become a cancer for Asia. Their only choice is to figure out the best way to prevent/minimize damage.
 
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