Doctor_Thomas
Member
If Sony are losing by more than 200,000 for three months.
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
It depends on what they say.
A PR tonight without claiming victory, just talking about momentum and how sales were great and jumped x-fold would definetly sound like a pre-emptive statament just like last month.
Honestly whatever is the outcome I feel they'll be close.
I would imagine if they lose more than two months in a row it's getting dropped. Probably waiting to see what Jan sales are like.
Oh, yes, here it is, and that was not PS4 GTA/TLOU bundle, it was ordinary edition. PS4's BF bundles were just a rumors then.
FF Seraphim
Member
How much would MS need to out sell Sony in order for November to look like a significant victory? I think most people believe MS will win November's NPD because it has a damn good sale going on.
But even with the price would only selling 100k more be enough?
But even with the price would only selling 100k more be enough?
Otoh, MS can't sell at a (possibly big) loss forever.
The PS3 had the big earnings of the PS2 to ride (and mostly wiped them out) and the Blu-Ray war to win, but the Xbox seen as a division of MS doesn't have that kind of reserve (at least not from an investor's pov) or that kind of stake (the living room set top box All in One thing was a thing of the past even before they launched imo).
I could see the XB1 remaining at $349, but without games bundled. Or go back to $399, with 2 free games.
My (relatively informed) guess is that they currently lose at least $100 per console sold ($399 is either their production cost or slightly under, say $10 or $20). The above move would probably reduce that loss to $50 per, offset by the sale of a single XBLG sub.
Imo, outselling the PS4 by 200k at a minimum would be somewhat of a victory in terms of reducing the gap. 300k+ definitely though.
Anything between 100-200k is what is generally expected, and not much of a victory. A decent PR one, for sure.
100k and under would be catastrophic with the kind of $ investment they have done imo. They'd have to spin it pretty hard I think (which they'll probably do either way).
Many have said 200k+ or no wow. I'd agree with that.
I agree and that is what my line of thought is as well. They move through the bundles they have and after the holidays those might go back up to 399.99, but the standalone console will stay at 349.99. I would bet on it.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
Still no PR?
FF Seraphim
Member
Shouldn't that be released tomorrow alone with the numbers? Or results, whatever...
Not 100k but I think 25% more would be significant. Even then it feels a muted victory when Sony essentially didn't drop the price and Microsoft threw in everything but kitchen sink.
I guess we'll find out how the PS4 is really valued in the eyes of consumers.
Welfare
Member
250K at the minimum. That was the gap between the PS4 and the One during September. If MS can't get that in holiday month, well, I don't know what to say.
That's obvious, there's no turning back to 399$ especially if sales were close with deals at 329$ with two games and 50$ gift card.
Standalone at 349$ in January is a given.
Well if Microsoft makes a press release today or tomorrow without calling victory, we pretty much know who won. Tomorrow will be interesting regardless.
FunkyPajamas
Member
Someone should start a thread on this subject. I'm really interested in how it turns out and what GAF's predictions are.
Welfare
Member
Kar
Member
Not trying to be hyperbolic here but only 100k will be a disaster.
Am I wrong?
So should we start the countdown?Ah but you see, what time zone?
Welfare
Member
That was PST, so at about 5 EST
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
would of expected gloating PR from Microsoft about BF at least.
Im really not convinced the gap between the console is going to be all that great, nor do i think either sold gangbusters.
I think tomorrows thread isnt going to be a meltdown of Sony fans or Microsoft fans, I think its going to be filled with concern trolling about the fate of the console industry.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
They ain't doing no price cut in January though. Mid Feb to coincide with The Order at the earliest.
If not then, E3 2016.
Aquamarine
Member
Chobel
Member
Still nothing. MS usually do preemptive PR when they lose, no PR from them is even more confirmation that they won November.
That is an intriguing idea. I think the meltdowns would be best if the Xbox one went back up on January 2nd and the PS4 dropped in price on the 3rd.
I am waiting for the PR to drop. The last time we got preemptive Sony pr, everyone thought they were taking a loss for the month, before coming out the victor. I am very curious how the pr battles emerge this time. Did we ever get firm numbers for last month? I don't remember even seeing rough estimates?
FF Seraphim
Member
The NPD thread I feel no matter who wins will be filled with a lot of drive by shit posts. Anyway, it should be interesting to read the PRs that will be released today or tomorrow. December should also be interesting but I feel sorry for MS if they think they can go back to the regular price in January.
Kar
Member
But how is that not a disaster to Microsoft?
They threw everything they had (huge price cut, amazing bundles) just to outsell the PS4 by 100k?
If it really is 100k (or somewhere close), I doubt the boost they got from the price cut will carry to December and the rest of 2015.
My thoughts as well, if they lose Nov, Dec, and Jan I think we get a price drop in Feb.
Welfare
Member
Microsoft's plan is basically to focus on the US and try to recoup a significant chunk of the lost ground in their main market by selling the console at an extra loss for two months and taking advantage of the holidays. Then they'll still keep the price at 349$ but without the losses of the free games and gift cards, starting the new year in a more competitive position and more room to breathe.
Anything below 200k will be a disappointment for them considering the lengths they have gone to outperfom the PS4.
Aquamarine
Member
JeffG
Member
The money in selling software dwarfs the money made/lost in the hardware.
Software is where most of the money is made, as far as I understand it. Increasing the install base would be the advantage of taking a loss on the bundles.
Early January. The only way I see the price going back up is if MS is offering a bigger hdd in the $399 package post holiday. A 1TB system at $399 for example. However, I don't see this is as a good value add anymore since it is easy to add an external USB hdd. Might as well keep the price at $349.
Oh that's good for Sony because they have advantage in both.
Trogdor1123
Member
They likely are losing a fair bit of money, its about long term gain though as between game sales and Live they make that money back and then some.
CosmicQueso
Member
No one month is a disaster.
Exactly. Doubt many people there are even paying much attention to share. They have a number to hit, that's what they're focused on.
Don't know why you'd think some companies would get to see the results early.
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
It doesn't matter how many months they lose, it matters by how much they lose.
Well software and live subscriptions. Almost every person who buys cod and halo are probably also going to get a live subscription. So if halo sells great on the xb1 and COd sells gangbusters on both the 360 and xb1, those live dollars are gonna just keep flowing in.
And it's looking like those games did sell a lot
theprodigy
Member
yes.....although in Nintendo's case I think it's more that their handhelds provide cover (though it certainly doesn't help when you end up with a Wii U-like scenario)
Nightengale
Member
Yeah, once you hit profitability, hardware profits are a significant part of the business. SCEI's profits thus far are largely contributed by PS4 hardware sales (and increased Vita margins ). And Nintendo's hardware still makes a healthy chunk of their money.
cheezcake
Member
More people in the XB1 ecosystem. MS gets a cut of the games those people buy, digital or retail, increased ad revenue etc.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
As aqua illustrated earlier in this thread, that normally doesnt stop microsoft putting out a pre-npd statement.
IndoAssassin
Banned
Do the bundled games count towards attachment rate?