The packins have cash value though.
$50 GC nearly as good as cash since you can buy necessities with it, and you can sell the software. I think a reasonable adjusted price for that deal would be $249 for the x1.
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
The packins have cash value though.
$50 GC nearly as good as cash since you can buy necessities with it, and you can sell the software. I think a reasonable adjusted price for that deal would be $249 for the x1.
So who bought the $349/$329 bundles?
- parents who couldn't afford more for christmas
- gamers who finally could afford it or where looking for a cheap AC entry to next gen
- PS4 owners who couldn't resist the deal and got a second console
- Those who waited for a good price to finally play Halo
But who would buy a $349 Non-Bundle Jan-Sep?
I see MS ignoring Jan-May or bundling some random stuff and then announce $299 for E3. Really, $50 advantage over PS4 in the slow season will do nothing also going against Order and Bloodborne.
You can reduce it by gift cards and resale value of bundled games IMO...so maybe not $199, but dirt cheap
SaucyJack
Member
Thanks. So a possible "too close to call" result which would explain PR radio silence.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Looking forward to the numbers. My bet is on the XB1. But if they really try to go back to the 399US$ price point after holidays all that will just be a classic example for a flash in the pan.
slavesnyder
Member
too close to call would be a shame for xbox. they have to win by at least 200k to justify their price-slashing. and i am sure they will.
And this number is based on what, exactly? Handwaving?
I hope MS keeps the price drop, because it's working wonders for them, and you have to price your product for what it offers/is (unless you are Apple which no one seems to be)
And I want Nintendo to drop the price of Wii U. It's too damn expensive in Finland compared to the new arrivals. I want to buy one dammit.
Oh, and it's GMT +2 here so I have no idea when the NPD results are released...
And I want Nintendo to drop the price of Wii U. It's too damn expensive in Finland compared to the new arrivals. I want to buy one dammit.
Oh, and it's GMT +2 here so I have no idea when the NPD results are released...
About midnight, but you shouldn't expect any interesting information before Friday morning. It's gonna be fun seeing how many pages the thread is already going to be when I open it for the first time...
It's giving me indigestion just thinking about it.
Out of interest what are the LTD totals for XB1 and PS4 in the US?
Larogue
Member
I can see Witcher 3 bundle coming
About 36 more hours.
(Love your avatar by the way; really enjoy Downtown's "Gaki No Tsukai" batsu games.)
slavesnyder
Member
exactly. for me, 200k is a psychological step. number looks and feels good.
and that's all. what is your opinion?
Edit: Alternative win: being the only one above 1 million sold.
But if they have a million and PS4 980k it looks nice but in fact means less....
thank you. you are good with words.
Um because they want to close the gap. Also if the gap isn't large it shows a very real percieved value gap between the Ps4 and X1 and would mean that in order to compete they will have to perputually be $50 cheaper and bundle two games.
1970 Chevelle SS
Neo Member
So has anyone made a prediction on how much money MS will lose this holiday season on their bundle? Remember it being said here that if Sony had dropped the PS4 by $50 to $350 they would have lost $300 million or so. Can we assume that MS will at the very least be down that much if not more with game & GC as well as the console price drop itself.
I know they are made of money and can take such a hit if they choose to , just interested in peoples theories on this.
I know they are made of money and can take such a hit if they choose to , just interested in peoples theories on this.
I can't remember who said it, but they used numbers from Microsoft's financials and said MS are expecting $1 billion lower in revenue(?) compared to last year for the division (which includes other devices like Surface). I don't know, I'm not smart enough to read those reports.
edit - corrected
Nightengale
Member
1 billion lower revenue, not loss in revenue.
Too close to call is not good news for the XB1, any way you slice it. To undercut the competition so deeply only to get within spitting distance is a disaster.
^this and the competition has not even lifted a finger yet...
slavesnyder
Member
they will win by a good margin.
other question: i wonder how many kinect they are still selling. do we have data about that? there might be tons of them still rotting in warehouses, or even worse, unsold kinect/console bundles that no retailer is interested in.
MSFT's XBox division may not be hit as hard, as 360 still moves quite a bit of software to offset any hardware losses associated with the bundles and discounts.
And MSFT has no control over how many PS4's Sony can ship and sell. Saying that XBox must sell over xxx thousands of units more that PS4 doesn't mean much without specifying the absolute numbers.
slavesnyder
Member
Of course not, but aren't we in a race, isn't there a war to win?
some good gap-closing after all that price-limbo should be the aim.
pre-season is over. now it counts.
SaucyJack
Member
Why will they win by a good margin.
Abdiel's retail insights have usually been a good yardstick for how the month actually pans out. And this suggests a close month.
Well, Nirolak should be ready on time for new thread.
GiantBreadbug
Member
Interested to see if Nintendo will release Amiibo numbers (they will if they're good). What with the supply frenzy that's been whipped up and their projections.
Sony were estimated to beat MS by around 120k last month. So if MS can only do the same to Sony, with the massive effort they've put in, I think that can fairly be considered 'not a big win'. All that just to claw back what they lost the previous month?
Part of it is easy to estimate:
XB1 + AC:U + AC:BF otherwise retail for ~$480. Someone must eat the price reduction and it's not gonna be the retailer and probably not the game publisher either. So for every expected console sale without the price drop (let's say 2 million), Microsoft's bottom line is affected by $130. So the holiday bundle cost them $260 million at least, the loss from any additional unit sold thanks to the price drop comes on top of that.
MaxwellParrish
Member
I'm a little late to the discussion but I would like to point out that the price of the 80 giga PS3 was lowered of just 100$ from 599 to 499. The introduction of the 40 giga at 399 $ sobstituted the 20 giga model (formerly priced 499$) and while it offered a bigger hard disk , it had no BC and less ports.
exactly.
ps4 basically outsold xbox1 by at least 110k last month. if xbox1 doesn't at push 200k over ps4 this month the price drops and all are basically a waste. they are also over 1m behind at this point in US alone. I think the aggressive pricing and bundling this holiday is to try and eat into that lead, and if that doesn't happen it would be the same as a loss.
Dragon1893
Member
Indeed, it will have to be a significant win for it to actually count as a win.
We shouldn't forget next month's NPDs as being part of the larger picture as well, since that is the duration of the supposed "temporary" pricecut. Combining the Nov+Dec will give a very telling picture of how well MS was able to close the gap.
I have a feeling that most people don't realize how big the LTD gap between PS4 and XB1 is even in the US.
Even a 200k win means absolutely nothing.
Closing the gap this year should be almost impossible unless PS4 sales tanked really hard. (Abdiel implied PS4 continued to sell strong didn't he?)
slavesnyder
Member
It's just a feeling, not based on data. I have huge respect for abdiel and adore his reports from the real life, but just seeing the ac-bundle sprinting up the amazon yearly charts was damn impressive.
otherwise, if sony wins or ms wins only by a little amount, this would nearly be end of story, end of suspense for the rest of the generation i feel (another feeling, i shouldn't).
and i like npd threads so much, i want this madness to continue.
and this one will be phantastic.
*lights a candle for getting some numbers...*
vpance
Member
From his predictions, to me it sounds like they basically tied, which would be a horrible outcome for MS after all the fire sales. Looks like Nov NPD will decide the fate of Xbone.
Feelings can't really be argued with, but if you re-check the Nov ranking on Amazon you'll see the situation is quite interesting. The XB1 ACU bundle is indeed #2, but then you have no less than 4 PS4 SKUs before the next XB1...
The closest similar situation we have had to that was reversed, in March, with PS4 at #1 but XB1 then having two well positionned SKUs.
In that situation the PS4 did still win, but by a much narrower margin than usual (60k units).
With Sony seeming to be more aggressive for December, and November possibly burning up some of that initial 'price cut' demand for Xbox, it might be much closer or maybe even Sony edging it in December.
The big thing to bear in mind is what will both platforms do in 1H15? MS arguably may flatline as they return to normal pricing without big bundles, whereas Sony may be in a better position to adjust pricing and ride an uptick of demand throughout that first half - especially with quite a lot of first party exclusives kicking in compared to MS.
There were PS4 deals out there as well
It will definitely be interesting if MS isn't satisfied with their sales this Nov/Dec we might be seeing a change in strategy with less focus on the holidays and more spread out lineups.
They can't afford to give away 9 months if they don't sell enough in the last 3 months.
For a day or two at a time. You can't really say the holiday pushes have been equivalent.
It won't. You guys put way too much stock in NPD in general, let alone a single month out of how many years this generation will drag on for. Regardless of who "wins," and by how much, it's not going to have much of an impact either way in the grand scheme of things.
Thats not in question. Saying Sony didnt lift a finger is disingenuous.
This would be a valid point if we were talking about Sony: NPD for them is just one third of their global market. For MS it's much more important, because they are practically dead everywhere else. And, according to MS themselves, rest of the year is just pre-season, last quarter is the playoffs.
Now, MS already lost October. Without a substantial victory in both November and December it's starting to look really dire for them. Because the competition is going to get tougher from now on.
vpance
Member
How much they sold in Nov tells a lot about what the price needs to be in 2015 though. If it's a tie, they'll continue to lose ground next year if they choose to go with $350 standalone. They'd have to pack in at least another game to keep pace. Maybe MS would hesitate to continue to take those losses? If they aren't willing to then they have to reside in their fate of the gap continuing to widen in the US. Seems like it would be a big decision internally.
Now if it's a clear victory of 200k+, they might be able to afford to go back to $399 and the picture is considerably rosier.
Militant17
Member
But did Sony go beyond their usual holiday push? We all know MS did and arguably sony didn't respond to that beyond what would've been planed. So I'd be inclined to agree with him.