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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

T

TomShoe

Banned
Have there been any months since March (Titanfall) where the Xbox hasn't been bundled with a game? I expect the bundling to continue, now that consumers are getting used to it.
 
K

KampferZeon

Neo Member
Let's be honest and face the truth.
Microsoft is losing money for every cheap bundle, at least 100 dollars each.
Microsoft was on the defensive, not offensive.
xb has lost almost all of its momentum.
This year Titanfall, kinectless price cut happened without the desired effect.
 
B

B4s5C

Member
I did a basic forecast analysis in SPSS for Wii U sales. I took into account sales per month since launch. I will try add more variables to the model over the next few weeks as I gather more resources and time.

November 2012: 425k
December 2012: 460k
January 2013: 57k
February 2013: 66k
March 2013: 67k
April 2013: 37k
May 2013: 33k
June 2013: 33.6k
July 2013: 29k
August 2013: 31k
September 2013: 93k
November 2013: 220k
December 2013: 480k
January 2014: 66.1k
February 2014: 82.5k
March 2014: 70k
April 2014: 55k
May 2014: 60.1k
June 2014: 140l
July 2014: 64.7k
August 2014: 60k
September 2014: 90k

These past sales figures could be way off but I can update them as needed. Here are the predictions for the next two months.

November 2014:
Lowest possible = ~249k
Most likely = ~ 326k
Highest possible = ~403k

December 2014
Lowest possible = ~396k
Most likely = ~473k
Highest possible = ~551k

I would say use these numbers as ballparks to where you think Wii U sales might be. My personal guess would be

Wii U: 330k

P0jb.png
 
S

SensibleSucker

Member
As someone relatively new to this, from what I have seen, we never get actual hardware figures very easily. Only the headline "MS or Sony win the month of XXX". NPD always seems to give more detail about software but not hardware.

When are we likely to get actual concrete numbers re: hardware? Is there a consistent source that isn't MS or Sony?

In terms of winning. The feeling is that MS will win November. Whether this continues beyond December, I doubt, but I do think that both consoles will be much closer from month to month going forwards. I simply cannot see MS increasing the cost of the Bone again. No way. The bundles we see are the new real as far as the One is concerned. They have tapped into a value offer than has triggered sales and they'd be daft to reverse it. As such, although the likely win will not be permanent, i can't see the PS4 continue to dominate in the US in the same way in 2015. Maybe win more months than lose, but not in the same way.

Equally, I can see MS doing really wsell next Xmas too, as MS do seem to really load their guns guns for the Xmas period, wheras Sony seems to have a wider spread of activity throughout the year.

As such, I think 2015 NPD will be closer throughout the year, with the monthly split being 7/8 out of 12 months in Sony's favour. Now I may have a different definition of success that some, but that's not too shabby from MSs point of view.

I can easily see the PS4 panning the Bone worldwide though. That much is clear.

MS have definitely changed the general perception of the XBone. They are seen as a genuine proposition now, it seems. They have gained mind-share, if not market-share in the way they want to.

This is a culmination of all of the steps taken and a real glut of good exclusives.

What I have noticed though is that this perceived mindshare seems extremely fickle. MS seems to be gaining traction, then as soon as Sony held their big 20th anniversary event, people were coming out saying MS are behind again/need to step it up etc. It's crazy how quickly people seem to have their opinions altered by whatever happens to have taken place recently.

I include myself in that, at times.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Abdiel said:
Yo~

Sorry guys. Things have certainly still been busy at work, but honestly, the reason I didn't make a 'final month retail check' is because I don't really have a clear picture. We sold a ton of both consoles. I haven't had time to try to find an exact breakdown on a larger scale than my own district, and here, we sold more PS4s for the month, by a nose. Sony sent us a ridiculous amount of systems, fully refreshing us after we sold out of the initial (big) black friday shipment, and the sales we did on the white units saw really good velocity there. But the only other district I had a chance to try and look at saw slightly higher XB1 numbers, from what I could tell.

I just... don't have numbers I would say are a good depiction, like I usually do, so I didn't want to paint a broad impression.
Click to expand...

OHHHHHHHH CRAP!

Dis gonna be a good NPD for sure XD

Thanks Abdiel, your input means a lot.

Honestly, whatever the outcome, i just hope that they both had relatively high sales (hoping for 800k++ for both)
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
quetz67 said:
So who bought the $349/$329 bundles?
- parents who couldn't afford more for christmas
- gamers who finally could afford it or where looking for a cheap AC entry to next gen
- PS4 owners who couldn't resist the deal and got a second console
- Those who waited for a good price to finally play Halo

But who would buy a $349 Non-Bundle Jan-Sep?

I see MS ignoring Jan-May or bundling some random stuff and then announce $299 for E3. Really, $50 advantage over PS4 in the slow season will do nothing also going against Order and Bloodborne.
Click to expand...

Well obviously there will be people buying...or else you wouldn't have sales, and technically you could do the same thing for the PS4 GTA bundle...

But to answer your question on how they will combat The Order/BB, I think it is so obvious and find it hard to believe people haven't thought of it already -- They are going to do a special XB1 Evolve Bundle for $349

Or at least that is what I would do if I were MS.
Bundling a hot game with a cheaper pricetag than your competition is a smart move, and while it may still not necessary be enough to win them the month, it will keep the gap much smaller than it could be.
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
Final Verdict said:
Well obviously there will be people buying...or else you wouldn't have sales, and technically you could do the same thing for the PS4 GTA bundle...

But to answer your question on how they will combat The Order/BB, I think it is so obvious and find it hard to believe people haven't thought of it already -- They are going to do a special XB1 Evolve Bundle for $349

Or at least that is what I would do if I were MS.
Bundling a hot game with a cheaper pricetag than your competition is a smart move, and while it may still not necessary be enough to win them the month, it will keep the gap much smaller than it could be.
Click to expand...

Yeah, bundling Evolve or Witcher 3 was what I meant with bundling random stuff. But I don't see system seller appeal one of those - we'll see.
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
Abdiel said:
Yo~

Sorry guys. Things have certainly still been busy at work, but honestly, the reason I didn't make a 'final month retail check' is because I don't really have a clear picture. We sold a ton of both consoles. I haven't had time to try to find an exact breakdown on a larger scale than my own district, and here, we sold more PS4s for the month, by a nose. Sony sent us a ridiculous amount of systems, fully refreshing us after we sold out of the initial (big) black friday shipment, and the sales we did on the white units saw really good velocity there. But the only other district I had a chance to try and look at saw slightly higher XB1 numbers, from what I could tell.

I just... don't have numbers I would say are a good depiction, like I usually do, so I didn't want to paint a broad impression.
Click to expand...
Oh snap! This is getting very interesting.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
I'm pretty sure that Abdiel said before ( about month ago ) a few days after Xbone 349$ announcement, sales were dropped rapidly and PS4 outsold Xbone on daily basis. I just can't find that post anymore.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
quetz67 said:
Yeah, bundling Evolve or Witcher 3 was what I meant with bundling random stuff. But I don't see system seller appeal one of those - we'll see.
Click to expand...

I personally am not excited too much about Evolve, but Media is hyping it up a lot just like Titanfall/Destiny, so I think it will be a really big seller in the US just like the other two.

As far as the Witcher 3 goes though, how could you not see the potential of this??
Maybe it is just me, but I think there are a ton of RPG fans who are highly anticipating this, and I personally believe that this will be the break through game in the series sales wise as it is getting a lot more media attention this time around.
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
Final Verdict said:
I personally am not excited too much about Evolve, but Media is hyping it up a lot just like Titanfall/Destiny, so I think it will be a really big seller in the US just like the other two.

As far as the Witcher 3 goes though, how could you not see the potential of this??
Maybe it is just me, but I think there are a ton of RPG fans who are highly anticipating this, and I personally believe that this will be the break through game in the series sales wise as it is getting a lot more media attention this time around.
Click to expand...

I see them selling very well, but I don't see them as incentive to buy a certain console - unless that bundle is as dirt cheap as ACU bundle on BF. And even then christmas and impulse purchases will be done after December, after that consumers will probably look closer which console offers more games beside the ones bundled.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Conduit said:
I'm pretty sure that Abdiel said before ( about month ago ) a few days after Xbone 349$ announcement, sales were dropped rapidly and PS4 outsold Xbone on daily basis. I just can't find that post anymore.
Click to expand...

He did, but that was just for the week GTAV & LBP came out, so not a huge surprise there.

I think the big take away from his post here is that there isn't a clear winner.
He said PS4 just nosed ahead in his store, but that XB1 had won in one of the other stores he checked with.

He also said that the reason PS4 did so well (on BF) at his store was because the X1 sold out, and they never got a refill of stock (apparently their only shipment was a big one at the beginning of the month?).
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Final Verdict said:
He did, but that was just for the week GTAV & LBP came out, so not a huge surprise there.
Click to expand...

no
he said that the 7th day of the price drop

Abdiel said:
So with all the commentary on the XB1 increases due to the drop in price, and the speculation associated with that, I figured I'd let you guys know what it has looked like this week.

There was a veritable... well, explosion is a bit hyperbolic, but as soon as the price drop hit, we had a pretty drastic increase in XB1 sales. First day and forward, with the CoD launch as well, sold a bunch of the various bundles. But even just the last two days, that rush has tapered off significantly, and while still better than last month's pace, it isn't outselling the PS4 anymore. They're pretty close now, with just that rush of systems putting it ahead for the month so far.

We're getting rumors/whispers from corporate about Sony's intentions for the PS4, bundling, etc. but I honestly avoid speculating on any of that, especially since I know that Best Buy corporate does indeed allow false rumors to spread in various stores to try and pinpoint leakers. I don't really see a clear way to call this month yet, even with the MCC. This is probably the first month where I really think things will be interesting. There's too much up in the air, and I don't think you guys realize exactly how insane Black Friday and the weekend following are. Last year one store sold more consoles on BF than 3 combined months of year leading up to that point.
Click to expand...

(early on November 8)
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Final Verdict said:
He did, but that was just for the week GTAV & LBP came out, so not a huge surprise there.

I think the big take away from his post here is that there isn't a clear winner.
He said PS4 just nosed ahead in his store, but that XB1 had won in one of the other stores he checked with.

He also said that the reason PS4 did so well (on BF) at his store was because the X1 sold out, and they never got a refill of stock (apparently their only shipment was a big one at the beginning of the month?).
Click to expand...

Huh I think you're adding details that you believe. Also xb1 never sold out on amazon yet the ps4 GTA bundle still managed to sell well. Another poster also noted ps4 won at his store as well. Its going to be a photo finish. Like others have been saying just because xb1 sells well it didn't mean the ps4 began to sell badly.
 
B

Bastables

Member
Final Verdict said:
He did, but that was just for the week GTAV & LBP came out, so not a huge surprise there.

I think the big take away from his post here is that there isn't a clear winner.
He said PS4 just nosed ahead in his store, but that XB1 had won in one of the other stores he checked with.

He also said that the reason PS4 did so well (on BF) at his store was because the X1 sold out, and they never got a refill of stock (apparently their only shipment was a big one at the beginning of the month?).
Click to expand...
He did not say this at all, he stated the PS4 was restocked when it's initial Black Friday shipment sold out.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
GifGafIsTheBestGaf said:
the big bad wolf is back, though it is 20$ + than before
Click to expand...

Interesting to see how it will do (just appeared on the hourly around rank #90).

For December, the PS4 hasn't really been doing too good on Amazon so far, but interestingly it has set the Gamestop (online) best selling charts on fire lately...

http://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=28-xu0

#1: PS4 GTA V + TLOU + Camera / $399 (Online only deal)
#2: PS4 GTA V + TLOU / $399
#6: Wii U Super Mario 3D Bundle / $299
#7: PS4 with free Destiny / $399 (Online only)
#8: PS4 with NBA2K15 digital / $399 (Online only)
#9: PS4 with Far Cry 4 digital / $399 (Onlline only)
#16: XB1 ACU bundle / $349
#50: PS4 single SKU / $399
#64: XB1 COD limited / $449
#69: PS4 White Destiny bundle / $449
#87: XB1 single SKU / $349
#88" XB1 refurb single SKU / #319


December will be an "interesting" month :)
 
SEGAvangelist

SEGAvangelist

Member
Abdiel works at Best Buy right? They had the worst Black Friday bundle if I remember correctly. That could explain why sales were close from his perspective.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Team Vernia said:
Abdiel works at Best Buy right? They had the worst Black Friday bundle if I remember correctly. That could explain why sales were close from his perspective.
Click to expand...

What did Best Buy have as their BF deal? And for that matter what was GameStop's?

Target and Walmart were the places to pick up a One BF, and if it was tying the PS4 in a retailer that had worse deals for the system, I think that says something about the One's performance.
 
SEGAvangelist

SEGAvangelist

Member
Welfare said:
What did Best Buy have as their BF deal? And for that matter what was GameStop's?

Target and Walmart were the places to pick up a One BF, and if it was tying the PS4 in a retailer that had worse deals for the system, I think that says something about the One's performance.
Click to expand...

BruceLeeRoy said:
Yeah I was just thinking this as well. Every other outlet including Amazon had a much better deal on the X1.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure both Gamestop and Best Buy just had the $329 price. The Target, Walmart, MS Store, and Amazon Flash Sale deals were all much better because they included a gift card or extra game I believe.

EDIT: Maybe Gamestop threw in an accessory or something?

EDIT: Nope. Gamestop had a get $30 of Xbox Live Gold year sub for buying XB1.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Team Vernia said:
I'm pretty sure both Gamestop and Best Buy just had the $329 price. The Target, Walmart, MS Store, and Amazon Flash Sale deals were all much better because they included a gift card or extra game I believe.

EDIT: Maybe Gamestop threw in an accessory or something?
Click to expand...

Just checked. GS just had it $329

ftgamestopth.jpg
 
X

x-Lundz-x

Member
I would expect we should see MS PR tonight or tomorrow morning if they won November. If they do not put anything out until NPD time then maybe they didn't win. Sound about right?
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Final Verdict said:
I personally am not excited too much about Evolve, but Media is hyping it up a lot just like Titanfall/Destiny, so I think it will be a really big seller in the US just like the other two.

As far as the Witcher 3 goes though, how could you not see the potential of this??
Maybe it is just me, but I think there are a ton of RPG fans who are highly anticipating this, and I personally believe that this will be the break through game in the series sales wise as it is getting a lot more media attention this time around.
Click to expand...

In US? I really doubt it's gonna be a popular game, European RPGs don't do that well in US.
 
X

x-Lundz-x

Member
Goodacre0081 said:
when is the the price drop supposed go back up for XB1?
Click to expand...

Honestly, I personally would be surprised to see it go back up from 349.99. I know it says limited time, but MS would be very stupid to raise the price back up in my opinion.

$349.99 is the price is should be, sans Kinect. A lot of us on GAF have been saying that for a year.

Graphics Horse said:
I'm sure someone said the opposite of this earlier.
Click to expand...
Saying that if they put out early PR they lost?
 
R

Rymuth

Member
PhatSaqs said:
Thats not in question. Saying Sony didnt lift a finger is disingenuous.
Click to expand...
No, the question is whether or not the competition DIRECTLY reacted to anything MS did...which they didn't (still $399) - I know it's hard to come to terms with that considering your bias, but there we go.
 
P

PhatSaqs

Banned
Rymuth said:
No, the question is whether or not the competition DIRECTLY reacted to anything MS did...which they didn't (still $399) - I know it's hard to come to terms with that considering your bias, but there we go.
Click to expand...
lol who said anything about bias? I was just confused by your initial statement. I know this is GAF but sheesh...
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
x-Lundz-x said:
Normally I would agree, but MS winning a month for the first time in almost a year I would think they would be ready to shout that out loud ASAP.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure anyone's in the mood for shouting anything with the BF silence. Sorry I can't find where that post I saw was, I don't think I imagined it.
 
Cornbread78

Cornbread78

Member
Goodacre0081 said:
when is the the price drop supposed go back up for XB1?
Click to expand...


The day after Dec. NPD ends... convienient, lol.





x-Lundz-x said:
I would expect we should see MS PR tonight or tomorrow morning if they won November. If they do not put anything out until NPD time then maybe they didn't win. Sound about right?
Click to expand...


We will see it tomorrow, probably first out of the box between 4:30-6:30pm EST. (closer to 6:30pm) I cannot immagine a scenerio in which Sony had higher sales for Nov. The same with Dec. as those AC bundles have continued to sell very well. I'm cringing already at reading their PR...
 
G

Goodacre0081

Member
Cup said:
January, I think.
But it wont.
Click to expand...

i don't think it will go back up either. MS will keep the price due to "popular demand". I do remember an article at the start of the generation saying that Sony could drop the price of the PS4 any time to match the Xbox so it would retain it's price advantage. I wonder at what point they pull the trigger.
 
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