November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th

Welfare said:
http://blog.infoscout.co/playstation-takes-the-shelf-xbox-wins-the-browser/?platform=hootsuite

Based on over 1,500 console purchases

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Interesting they show a large gap for both. They have Sony taking a large lead in brick and mortar, and Xbox taking a large lead in Online. You would think that the winner in brick and mortar would likely be reflected online as well. Maybe just better online deals for Xbox in comparison to PS4?
 
Obliterator said:
Interesting they show a large gap for both. They have Sony taking a large lead in brick and mortar, and Xbox taking a large lead in Online. You would think that the winner in brick and mortar would likely be reflected online as well. Maybe just better online deals for Xbox in comparison to PS4?
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Have more consoles been sold online in the past few years than in brick and mortar stores for Black Friday?
 
ethomaz said:
I expect 500k the whole November with 400k in the first week.

50k in BF sounds right.
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I would say cut that first week in half. Selling 10x than the UK launch and >6x the Japan launch is not happening. ~200k is more likely.

I expect ~450k for Pro so ~200k launch with ~250k for 2nd week + Black Friday. That is assuming supply is good.
 
CosmicQueso said:
Some of the responses in that other thread about Pro are giving me a fucking migraine.
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I honestly think people just want to confirm their own agenda or bias. Because I'd have to think common sense would tell people why the Pro was an afterthought for Black Friday.
 
Why is anyone expecting momentum from Pro on Black Friday? If there was an award for most ignored product on a key shopping day, I'd have given to the pro then. Which is obvious? We had no special promos, no deals or discounts. It more amuses me when people make comments about how badly the pro food on BF. Were they expecting differently? The slim and S ruled the day, hands down.
 
Abdiel said:
Why is anyone expecting momentum from Pro on Black Friday? If there was an award for most ignored product on a key shopping day, I'd have given to the pro then. Which is obvious? We had no special promos, no deals or discounts. It more amuses me when people make comments about how badly the pro food on BF. Were they expecting differently? The slim and S ruled the day, hands down.
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It's people either trying to confirm their bias about wanting these mid gen upgrades to fail. Or maybe some people DID have lofty expectations. I don't know.
 
Seems to confirm that overall Sony has won BF since of course retailer based sales during that day are way higher than online sales.
And obviously the full month.
If tomorrow MS doesn't anything it's pretty much sealed deal.

About the Pro it's absolutely obvious that it would be a small blip during BF with the Slim being priced at 250$ and lower.
 
Elios83 said:
Seems to confirm that overall Sony has won BF since of course retailer based sales during that day are way higher than online sales.
And obviously the full month.
If tomorrow MS doesn't anything it's pretty much sealed deal.
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That will be interesting. Didn't MS put out PR the day after Black Friday, but it didn't really say much of anything?
 
Boke1879 said:
That will be interesting. Didn't MS put out PR the day after Black Friday, but it didn't really say much of anything?
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Yes but it was a meaningless PR.
Their last chance is tomorrow but honestly right now I doubt they'll say anything.
They seem to have lost in overall sales.
 
ethomaz said:
So when you win a running you don't want anybody talking or you won't even show in the podium to receive your prize or congratulations???

Sorry but I can't see that as being reasonable.

There are honor, merit and accomplishment being number one.

You can't just want hide that because some people will be salty or jealous... it is your moment, not their.
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Exactly. Who cares about some toddlers having a tantrum about this.
You came in first and it's pr's job to get the message out to partners, customers and employees.
 
I'm more interested in the software race. Do we have any retail impressions about the breakdown of IW SKUs standard vs legacy? Or how it sold relevant to BF1? I assume frontloadedness will give IW the month but have a feeling it might be close.
 
Bolivar687 said:
I'm more interested in the software race. Do we have any retail impressions about the breakdown of IW SKUs standard vs legacy? Or how it sold relevant to BF1? I assume frontloadedness will give IW the month but have a feeling it might be close.
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I have no idea about software. Skyrim might chart again.
 
Abdiel said:
Why is anyone expecting momentum from Pro on Black Friday? If there was an award for most ignored product on a key shopping day, I'd have given to the pro then. Which is obvious? We had no special promos, no deals or discounts. It more amuses me when people make comments about how badly the pro food on BF. Were they expecting differently? The slim and S ruled the day, hands down.
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I know you are probably still recovering, but can you comment on numbers this year compared to last? Does the new SKUs and lower prices look to increase YoY Novembers? Thanks^^
 
Abdiel said:
Why is anyone expecting momentum from Pro on Black Friday? If there was an award for most ignored product on a key shopping day, I'd have given to the pro then. Which is obvious? We had no special promos, no deals or discounts.
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I don't know, it's a bit baffling. BF is a day driven almost entirely by discounting and deals. Baseline demand for games and systems on Black Friday does not rise above baseline when not on deal. It's just like any other day.

So of course BF isn't a big Pro day. And, even better, it doesn't matter. The Pro isn't targeted at gifting/price sensitive/promotionally motivated consumers. It's targeted at price insensitive enthusiasts.

This stuff isn't rocket science.

Then again, I think I'm in agreement with some other posters that people are just looking for any anecdote that can be twisted to fit their own desired argument. Disappointing, really.
 
5Twist said:
Brick and mortar makes up a significantly larger portion of marketshare over online, right?
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Yes. Last year estimates from IHS were 6:1 retail versus online, even though online was growing many times faster than retail.

If online continued growing in 2016 at a quick pace like 2015 and 2014, then this year the ratio would be closer to 5:1. That is, online would be ~15% of all sales.
 
MatPiscatella said:
I don't know, it's a bit baffling. BF is a day driven almost entirely by discounting and deals. Baseline demand for games and systems on Black Friday does not rise above baseline when not on deal. It's just like any other day.

So of course BF isn't a big Pro day. And, even better, it doesn't matter. The Pro isn't targeted at gifting/price sensitive/promotionally motivated consumers. It's targeted at price insensitive enthusiasts.

This stuff isn't rocket science.

Then again, I think I'm in agreement with some other posters that people are just looking for any anecdote that can be twisted to fit their own desired argument. Disappointing, really.
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Very well said.
 
The lack of PR probably means Xbox is down YoY or there was nothing of note to mention.

Or both.

Unless that "strong demand" PR was supposed to mean something more.
 
Welfare said:
The lack of PR probably means Xbox is down YoY or there was nothing of note to mention.

Or both.

Unless that "strong demand" PR was supposed to mean something more.
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Didn't Aaron Greenberg use something simlar in his tweeter comments last year?
 
Elandyll said:
Didn't Aaron Greenberg use something simlar in his tweeter comments last year?
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Kind of helps when they released PR last year. Nothing else was mentioned.

Going with a PS4 lead, but only small. Won't be >200k like last year, probably <100k.
 
Welfare said:
Kind of helps when they released PR last year. Nothing else was mentioned.

Going with a PS4 lead, but only small. Won't be >200k like last year, probably <100k.
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If they have lost BF as it seems, coupled with the Pro sales boost in the early part of the month, there's no way this is going to be close.
It will mirror what we have seen in the UK for the month.
 
Elios83 said:
If they have lost BF as it seems, coupled with the Pro sales boost in the early part of the month, there's no way this is going to be close.
It will mirror what we have seen in the UK for the month.
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The UK gap for November is 67k with only 3 weeks of data, and the week we are missing won't make up a big gap so the UK difference is going to be <100k. The gap won't be much bigger in the US.
 
Welfare said:
The UK gap for November is 67k with only 3 weeks of data, and the week we are missing won't make up a big gap so the UK difference is going to be <100k. The gap won't be much bigger in the US.
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The two markets are correlated but you know perfectly that you have to scale for the different sizes ;) What was a 25k victory in the UK in October translated into a 100k victory in the US for the Xbox One S in the US for example. The percentages hold in this case, not the absolute gap, obviously.
The PS4 win in November in UK was significant for that market, more than 67k units is basically a whole month worth of sales there, a big month actually.
In the US if they have lost BF coupled with the Pro there's no way the gap will be <100k and actually it's very likely that it will be the same situation of last year.
But we'll see. I think the gap will be in the 200-300k range given the current situation.
 
Welfare said:
The UK gap for November is 67k with only 3 weeks of data, and the week we are missing won't make up a big gap so the UK difference is going to be <100k. The gap won't be much bigger in the US.
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I predicted a 300k gap :P

It is relatively smaller than UK gap.
 
Welfare said:
Going with a PS4 lead, but only small. Won't be >200k like last year, probably <100k.
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Interesting, what's your reasoning there? I know everything we've seen so far are just estimates, but they're the only evidence we have. And they seem to indicate a bigger win.

The InfoScout report implies a 25% advantage to PS4 on Black Friday (based on a 5:1 retail:online split). I'm not sure what proportion of November sales are on Black Friday, but I'd bet it's at least a third. If Xbox One sells 1m for the month--a very conservative estimate, strongly down YOY--then PS4 would have a 75,000 unit advantage from Black Friday alone.

Adobe's estimate was that the rest of the month also had a PS4 advantage (of unknown size) in online sales. With no evidence that relative retail/online positions were flipped, that seems to add somewhere between "more" and "lots more" to the PS4 win gap.

Staying under 100,000 seems pretty unlikely if those circumstances obtain. So what part(s) of it seem least plausible to you?
 
Elandyll said:
Didn't Aaron Greenberg use something simlar in his tweeter comments last year?
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Last year's PR, Microsoft mentioned how multiple BF records were broken for stuff like Xbox Store sales, unique users, and Live Gold subs. They were also pretty specific with the XB1's performance, saying that it sold 22% higher compared to Black Friday week of 2014.

This year, it's just XB1 sales and Live engagement were "strong".
 
5Twist said:
Last year's PR, Microsoft mentioned how multiple BF records were broken for stuff like Xbox Store sales, unique users, and Live Gold subs. They were also pretty specific with the XB1's performance, saying that it sold 22% higher compared to Black Friday week of 2014.

This year, it's just XB1 sales and Live engagement were "strong".
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In UK they were both beaten by PS4 and sales were down yoy over BF.
Microsoft's total silence is an indicator that the same thing might be reflected in the US for the month.
We'll find out relatively soon but it's obvious that winning BF was the only Microsoft way had to avoid a big defeat for November.
 
I think Xbox may have done comparatively better in the US than it did in the UK. It got crushed on BF in the UK but I'm not so sure that happened domestically. I think Sony took BF but probably somewhat narrowly

I think Sony takes the month with around a 200k - 300k gap
 
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