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[onQ123]

January 2022 v 2023.

Just seen the new thread

 

[owandeseis]

No games, diminishing mindshare

I told people 2023 was going to be a rough year for Xbox and 2024 might be a barren year.

There is this idea that Starfield as new IP is going to move units. The reality is that most people who know what Starfield even is and want it on console, already have an Xbox. Original IP is almost never a system seller. With it being available on GamePass and specifically GamePass PC... I'm not sure how well it will do with numbers. Microsoft's entire model is cannibalistic and it's starting to bite them. When you think about the number of people who will need to play Starfield for it to be a success... the number is crazy, like 30-40 million (and that would make it bigger than Skyrim which was multiplatform across multiple generations). When you take into account the percentage of these that will play on PC rather than console, it's probably at least 25% PC and I'm being generously conservative here. That gives you 22.5 million to 30 million on Xbox. Now maybe half of those are going to be GamePass... so now you're looking at 11.25 to 15 million buying the game... now how many of these are going to be net new users who are just buying the console for the first time. Of course some of that will be captured in net new gamepass users as well, but I think you can get the idea that it'll be very hard for this game by itelf to move the needle.

To be honest FH5 must be at around 25 million player count already, and Starfield is absolutely going to crush these numbers.

About the players on PC vs console, i'd say the opposite, i can't see less than 70% of it's sales being on PC. It's the biggest gaming platform outside of phones, plus Starfield is a RPG which is a PC centric genre, so i'd expect very big numbers there.

This said, i agree it won't be enough to save Xbox's 2023, it's going to take years and many games for Xbox to rise again, it will help sure, but nothing huge

 

[Thirty7ven]

Turning your brand into the value, cheap proposition comes with some side effects.

If regulators don't allow MS to buy the audience whole sale they will need to figure out their shit sooner rather than later.

 

[ByWatterson]

Maybe you are right and this idea blows my mind. Why? I enjoy my series x with a huge backlog and I don't understand why few gamers out there don't feel the same.
It's not a console war argument. There are good games in every system on the shelves.
From my pov as Xbox user (and switch too) there are a lot of games, it's not a problem for me if they aren't AAAAA….
Pentiment, Immortality, Hi-Fi rush, AoE2 HD and all the stuff on gamepass (Persona, return to Monkey Island and more) fills my days and enlarges my backlog (I still have to play Deathloop).
And next months will arrive Forza Motorsport (AAA), Redfall (AAA?), WOLONG(AAA) day1 gamepass…Starfield!
What is wrong with gamers around the world ?? They all wanna play only Harry Potter and be sheep in the flock?
Xbox doesn't deserve this poor numbers. No way.

I love mine for similar reasons, but it's beyond obvious that console gamers are about new, flashy, and powerful. Variety, catalog, and value are less of a priority for what is, let's face it, a pretty expensive hobby.

 

[mckmas8808]

Right?

Just really think about it, and you gotta tip off your hat to SIE's management for their strategic, ever-building momentum strategies:

• January-February = PSVR 2 + Hogwart's Legacy + TLOU Show
• March-April = All of the above + Horizon Burning Shores
• May-June = Final Fantasy XVI
• H2 2023 = Spider-Man 2, TLOU Online (marketing and/or release), Helldivers 2, PS5 w/ detachable disc drive.

In between, there will be smaller exclusive games like Stellar Blade, Pacific Drive, Eternights, etc. Another big third-party like Hogwart's Legacy in the form of Avatar, which is also being marketed by Sony.

2023 will be crazy for PlayStation.

You forgot MLB The Show in March-April for PS.

 

[ShadowkillXNA]

I hope MS submits this data to the CMA.

The CMA will be laughing so much they'll forget about killing the deal!
It's quite a brilliant strategy really.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

my comment in the other thread fits here as well:

Microsoft needs to have a standout year in terms of game releases and announcements. All planned games must meet or exceed expectations in terms of quality. The company should also provide gameplay demonstrations for previously announced titles and make exciting new AAA announcements.

Doing so will help Xbox to remain somewhat competitive against PS5. If Microsoft fails to meet these expectations, Xbox sales could potentially decline, which would be a significant setback for the company.

Xbox really needs to shut up and start releasing those AAA games; Play Station is not slowing down and every month it passes PS5 is just widening the gap.

Could potentially decline? They're already declining; they would have to do everything you suggested just to prevent further decline. With PS5 steamrolling ahead and Switch still holding strong, plus the real possibility Nintendo's bringing the Switch 2 early next year (or who knows, maybe even later this year!), MS are going to find themselves boxed out of the market for more or less the rest of the generation. This really could be their Sega Saturn generation if you know what I mean.

They can still remain in the mix at least in US & UK and some of their other global markets IF Starfield is a big success and makes an impact, all the promised games for 2022 actually release and are both quality and have some impact, and maybe they get another of the big 1P games out this year besides RedFall (will probably underperform) and Forza (doesn't do much to move the needle), like Avowed or Hellblade II.

If they can do that and have a clear, sizable release schedule for 2024, I think they'll be "fine". Still behind Sony & Nintendo, but at least more competitively so, instead of it being a complete blowout. Which is what seems to be forming right now for Xbox in the two markets where they absolutely can't afford it to happen.

Looks like PlayStation and Nintendo are running away with it. MS is in desperate need of the acquisition.

That's not going to fix things. What's the most they can get out of it in the short-term if they get ABK with little to no concessions? COD on Game Pass? They can't even do that until the contract with Sony expires. Overwatch 2 is already on both platforms, Diablo 4 will be coming to both as well and I don't know if Sony has marketing rights to it or not.

ABK don't really have that many other games lined up; no new Spyro or Crash, no new Guitar Hero, no new Leisure Suit Larry or Tony Hawk, that MS could use for Xbox or Game Pass within the next 2-3 years. No one's going to flock to Xbox or Game Pass for Candy Crush; they won't jettison WoW revenue by rolling it into Game Pass for "free", so that impact would be lessened.

If Microsoft wanted to prevent the declines that are happening today and will probably continue happening for most of the rest of the year, they should've made the rights moves in 2018 & 2019. Finishing XBO off with a bang would've been the right move. Having big 1P games ready for launch in 2020 would've been the right move. Having at least a good chunk of those games shown off in 2019 & 2020 release in 2021 & 2022 (Halo, Forza Horizon 5, Forza Motorsport, Hellblade II, Avowed, Everwild, State of Decay 3 primarily) would've been the right moves.

Their window of opportunity to really shift things this gen is pretty much gone.

 

[SlimySnake]

Sony charges the amount the market allows them to.

They weren't charging 70$ for remakes because they probably had data that showed they wouldn't sell well and it's been 10 years.

- PS5 has remakes for 70$ and yet, they sell. TLOU remake is yet again increasing in all charts;

- People complained about the PS5 price increase and yet PS5 is selling out after that.

- People complained about the games price increase while complimenting the Game Pass model for years. One is selling over 11M copies of certain games in less than 3 months for 80€ / 70$...the other one's subscribers don't get publicly updated for over a year (and it's available in both PC and consoles).

- People laughed at Sony for making a TLOU remake yet it's proven it was the perfect strategy.

- People laughed at an Uncharted movie with Tom Holland and it became a box office hit;

- I spent 10 years hearing that TLOU story was "nothing special" and how lots of movies and TV shows have done this before and the only reason why the game was a hit was because we never got something like this on a videogame...Sony announces the TV show and it became one of HBOs biggest hits ever.

Maybe PS5 era Sony knows what they are doing in all fronts and forum users don't?

So by your logic, just because CoD sells every year, Activision isnt anti-consumer? Using sales to measure whether or not a company is anti-consumer is a bizarre metric. Is Bobby Kotick the Mahatma Gandhi of video games then?

I mean I really dont understand this logic. You apply it towards the awful Tom Holland movie which has fuck all in common with the source material. Poor casting, bad story, just the most generic excuse for a movie and just because it made $400 million, we are supposed to consider it a GOOD movie?

TLOU remake selling well all of a sudden thanks to the show doesnt mean its a good remake or worth $30 more than what Sony charged for such remakes last gen. The quality of a game or a movie is what matters to me as a forum poster. I am not Jim Ryan. I dont hold Sony stock. Why the fuck would I care about sales? My main concern is my consumer rights and the quality of their products. No one here gives a shit about CoD or fortnite or minecraft. The biggest selling games of the year every year. Clearly sales arent that important to us when we sit around discussing GOTYs, game design and visuals.

The PS5 Price increase, the $10 next gen tax on last gen games, the first party cross gen games, the horizon price and PS3/vita store closing fiascos are all anti consumer moves by a publisher that is able to make these moves because they are on top and because they know they can get away with it. Losing Microsoft will leave them with a monopoly that will undoubtedly result in more anti-consumer moves.

I cant believe this is something that even needs saying. Especially considering the entire Sony defense against the Activision deal is that CoD going to MS will give them a monopoly. Monopolies are bad. 5th graders know it. If I agree with someone who says Sony needs MS and MS needs Sony to keep each other in check, it's the most basic most common sense thing i wouldve said all day. to get pushback on this is bizarre.

 

[SneakersSO]

The thing is that Playstation sales do not indicate that at all. There is no indication that people would rather buy a cheaper console now than the more expensive one. Later in the gen when the demand is satisfied - sure, but right now? They are still the first adopters and people right now want the "hottest" product which is the more powerful console, rather than just a cheaper price.

I do funny it is fascinating that Playstation's bet on third parties and transmedia IPs - something that did not work for Xbox One - is doing wonders this gen. Would not be surprised that the cheaper diskless PS5 will do the same thing that Series S supposed to do originally.

Still remains to be seen when the cadence of releases of Xbox changes. For now there is no big first party releases and no third party marketing (to the point that some people are not aware that HP is available on Xbox). So Xbox essentially does not exist for now.

Okay, so for your first point: one of the big things MS truly needed to alleviate with this console generation was getting new users to enter the eco. The XSS is the big thing for this, and there were a couple of early numbers that indicated the plan was working in a few select foreign markets, namely JP and India. They also have some metric that Phil touted where some significant % of XSS owners never owned an X1.

The larger issue is the production costs of their machines, relative to Sony's. By MS' own admission from the last year, they are still losing over $100 on average for every XS unit produced. No clue how much on XSX units. There was a lot of ink written in early 2022 about Sony's production shortages hampering their ability to ship and hit their forecasts. Note that that is NOT what is happening here with the XS; MS isn't having production issues, they are merely producing far fewer of them, in sync with demand. MS lost an absolute fortune on the over-production they did on X1X's at the end of the last generation. Given that they had a massive loss per unit, and seeing some early signs last year that demand was being met (there were several markets even in early 2022 where XSS stock was very easy to come by - its not a supply issue). But seeing how the XS is pretty available in even their largest markets while they are still losing significant market share - its a big problem. I'm not sure how MS gets out of this situation.

I don't think an increase in releases will really move the needle materially for Xbox. There has always been a consumer loophole that MS seemingly has never bothered trying to answer: what about Steam cannibalizing Xbox adoption? yeah, Starfield is gonna be big, but Steam is at the biggest user point now than its ever been at. PC gaming keeps growing while the Xbox keeps shrinking in users. So why would users buy into their console when they can just get their titles on Steam or even PC GP if they want GP?

These are all the factors working against MS' current business plan. And something is going to give, and very very soon.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Could potentially decline? They're already declining; they would have to do everything you suggested just to prevent further decline. With PS5 steamrolling ahead and Switch still holding strong, plus the real possibility Nintendo's bringing the Switch 2 early next year (or who knows, maybe even later this year!), MS are going to find themselves boxed out of the market for more or less the rest of the generation. This really could be their Sega Saturn generation if you know what I mean.

They can still remain in the mix at least in US & UK and some of their other global markets IF Starfield is a big success and makes an impact, all the promised games for 2022 actually release and are both quality and have some impact, and maybe they get another of the big 1P games out this year besides RedFall (will probably underperform) and Forza (doesn't do much to move the needle), like Avowed or Hellblade II.

If they can do that and have a clear, sizable release schedule for 2024, I think they'll be "fine". Still behind Sony & Nintendo, but at least more competitively so, instead of it being a complete blowout. Which is what seems to be forming right now for Xbox in the two markets where they absolutely can't afford it to happen.



That's not going to fix things. What's the most they can get out of it in the short-term if they get ABK with little to no concessions? COD on Game Pass? They can't even do that until the contract with Sony expires. Overwatch 2 is already on both platforms, Diablo 4 will be coming to both as well and I don't know if Sony has marketing rights to it or not.

ABK don't really have that many other games lined up; no new Spyro or Crash, no new Guitar Hero, no new Leisure Suit Larry or Tony Hawk, that MS could use for Xbox or Game Pass within the next 2-3 years. No one's going to flock to Xbox or Game Pass for Candy Crush; they won't jettison WoW revenue by rolling it into Game Pass for "free", so that impact would be lessened.

If Microsoft wanted to prevent the declines that are happening today and will probably continue happening for most of the rest of the year, they should've made the rights moves in 2018 & 2019. Finishing XBO off with a bang would've been the right move. Having big 1P games ready for launch in 2020 would've been the right move. Having at least a good chunk of those games shown off in 2019 & 2020 release in 2021 & 2022 (Halo, Forza Horizon 5, Forza Motorsport, Hellblade II, Avowed, Everwild, State of Decay 3 primarily) would've been the right moves.

Their window of opportunity to really shift things this gen is pretty much gone.

i was trying to be not ass-harsh.

 

[mckmas8808]

If they give up the 30% they would get nothing, just the costs of hosting the games and process payments for the VR manufacturer, just to say "we have VR too".
They are already losing game sales to gamepass, gamepass can't remain at current price to be profitable and if they increase price they'll lose subscribers, it's basically a time bomb, they can't add to that VR at a loss just to stay relevant, and it's probably too late in this gen for that, even if they don't design their own VR headset.

Then maybe GamePass wasn't a good idea to set as the future of their Xbox brand.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Xbox series S is currently $239.99 in select retailers…… and they are still down YoY …… that's very bad

This is the worst part of this for Microsoft. I'd love to see a breakdown here and see if the series X availability is still the primary problem here. That would be the best case scenario for Microsoft. Not being able to sell at 240 is pretty much a doomsday scenario.

Probably because Playstation is up. With PS5 finally in stock, people are likely not impulse purchasing the xbox like they did last year.

Or just like last gen, Xbox has now already sold to its loyal fanbase and has topped out. Remember, it kept pace with Sony for the first two years last gen getting to 25-30 million really quickly before just completely dropping off limping to 50 million.

Series S was $199. The casual market MS was chasing shouldve made this the best selling console of the year. But i guess even the price conscious gamers/soccer moms/grandparents dont want to buy that console for their kids.

I wouldve thought that people wouldve bought it in droves with Starfield coming out next year and CoD going exclusive. It's really odd that XSX is already starting its downward slope 2 years into this gen.

They made a really poor decision in doubling down on XSS stock rather than XSX. Ironically heading into a recession if we are heading into a recession, this move still might pay off down the road, but right now it looks like a foolish decision. They need to shift gears and produce as many XSX as they can, but those XSS are going to stay on shelves which is a bad look for the brand.

 

[Robbinhood]

Truth Bombs:

MS is so incredibly fortunate that PS5 was sales capped due to shortages in the first two years, creating relative sales parity artificially. Otherwise the gap would be insurmountable.

Series S is completely unwanted by the general pop. I've been saying since day 1 people don't want a weak POS, they want a true next gen machine. They should have doubled down on XSX but they clearly weren't confident in it alone. A cheap underpowered console option? They can just keep their existing last gen console, whos going to spend another 300 for a marginal upgrade. It also limits your main consoles potential.

Gamepass is fine but only when they start having crazy next gen games on it. People aren't going to choose Xbox over PS because Plagues Tale and Hi Fi are "free" on their service. Those games don't do anything unless added to a large pile of AAA great games.

 

[Ar¢tos]

Then maybe GamePass wasn't a good idea to set as the future of their Xbox brand.

It was a good idea, but it needed balance, instead of throwing everything in it from the start. Too late to change that now.

 

[SneakersSO]

Could potentially decline? They're already declining; they would have to do everything you suggested just to prevent further decline. With PS5 steamrolling ahead and Switch still holding strong, plus the real possibility Nintendo's bringing the Switch 2 early next year (or who knows, maybe even later this year!), MS are going to find themselves boxed out of the market for more or less the rest of the generation. This really could be their Sega Saturn generation if you know what I mean.

They can still remain in the mix at least in US & UK and some of their other global markets IF Starfield is a big success and makes an impact, all the promised games for 2022 actually release and are both quality and have some impact, and maybe they get another of the big 1P games out this year besides RedFall (will probably underperform) and Forza (doesn't do much to move the needle), like Avowed or Hellblade II.

If they can do that and have a clear, sizable release schedule for 2024, I think they'll be "fine". Still behind Sony & Nintendo, but at least more competitively so, instead of it being a complete blowout. Which is what seems to be forming right now for Xbox in the two markets where they absolutely can't afford it to happen.

I really don't think a sizeable release calendar fixes this situation. These games are largely all PC games now, MS just hasn't caught onto that market reality yet. In fact, the big thing that has kept their SW revenue from appearing even worse than it is is that MS' output is selling on Steam. You can see the Steam results on things like Grounded or Sea of Thieves and see that it sells. Its just not pushing adoption in the arena they'd prefer, which is GP growth and Xbox HW sales growth. Nothing they have on the pipe fixes that. And as for Avowed or Hellblade 2 - the larger market doesn't even know what these games are. They are basically only speaking to a select few group of users. And again - day 1 PC/Steam sales right there. PC gaming being at its biggest point ever directly hurts the point of adoption they wanted users to primarily flock to (GP/Console). They could release 4 GOTY-tier games this year that set sales records on Steam and that still wouldn't change the reality they are working with.

Add to that the ungodly losses they take for every HW unit they do sell, and the situation is increasingly becoming untenable. The radio silence from Xbox right now, starting with the CMA last week, is fucking *deafening* at this point.

That's not going to fix things. What's the most they can get out of it in the short-term if they get ABK with little to no concessions? COD on Game Pass? They can't even do that until the contract with Sony expires. Overwatch 2 is already on both platforms, Diablo 4 will be coming to both as well and I don't know if Sony has marketing rights to it or not.

ABK don't really have that many other games lined up; no new Spyro or Crash, no new Guitar Hero, no new Leisure Suit Larry or Tony Hawk, that MS could use for Xbox or Game Pass within the next 2-3 years. No one's going to flock to Xbox or Game Pass for Candy Crush; they won't jettison WoW revenue by rolling it into Game Pass for "free", so that impact would be lessened.

If Microsoft wanted to prevent the declines that are happening today and will probably continue happening for most of the rest of the year, they should've made the rights moves in 2018 & 2019. Finishing XBO off with a bang would've been the right move. Having big 1P games ready for launch in 2020 would've been the right move. Having at least a good chunk of those games shown off in 2019 & 2020 release in 2021 & 2022 (Halo, Forza Horizon 5, Forza Motorsport, Hellblade II, Avowed, Everwild, State of Decay 3 primarily) would've been the right moves.

Their window of opportunity to really shift things this gen is pretty much gone.

If ABK closed tomorrow, it wouldn't make a material difference to the fundamental issues facing the Xbox's current business plans. They need to find a way to make it profitable to actually produce HW - this is something Sony focused on figuring out with the PS4 gen due to how long they had to eat HW losses on PS3. Nintendo has operated this way after the Gamecube taught them a similar lesson. It really shackles your ability to expand hardware marketshare if you have to spend 2 years per user on average worth of sw purchases to make up for the losses you ate to get them into the ecosystem.

 

[Nothing1234]

Put those Xbox 360 console sales numbers to bed.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The million-dollar question: how? They have nothing big on the horizon to change the market perception.

I can't put myself in Phil's shoes at the moment; he really has a tough job to do. I'd have 0 ideas of what to do at this point if I were him.

If I'm him I'd go for GTA6 exclusive for a year, but I don't know if he can afford it, that and it probably won't come out until next year or the year after, which is just too late.

I'd definitely make Diablo 4 exclusive unless contractually obligated to release it on PS5.

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

Madden, yuck.

 

[SneakersSO]

If I'm him I'd go for GTA6 exclusive for a year, but I don't know if he can afford it, that and it probably won't come out until next year or the year after, which is just too late.

I'd definitely make Diablo 4 exclusive unless contractually obligated to release it on PS5.

There is no check Phil could write that would get GTA6 exclusively for a year, doubly so if GP inclusion is involved. T2's goal for GTA 6 is to make it the biggest thing since GTAV. Only way that happens is to be on the biggest platforms imaginable. Shit, at this rate, if T2 just held off on the Xbox version for a year simply cause SW sales are tanking in the Xbox eco, I wouldn't be surprised

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Right?

Just really think about it, and you gotta tip off your hat to SIE's management for their strategic, ever-building momentum strategies:

• January-February = PSVR 2 + Hogwart's Legacy + TLOU Show
• March-April = All of the above + Horizon Burning Shores
• May-June = Final Fantasy XVI
• H2 2023 = Spider-Man 2, TLOU Online (marketing and/or release), Helldivers 2, PS5 w/ detachable disc drive.

In between, there will be smaller exclusive games like Stellar Blade, Pacific Drive, Eternights, etc. Another big third-party like Hogwart's Legacy in the form of Avatar, which is also being marketed by Sony.

2023 will be crazy for PlayStation.

I think that Playstation smartly bet on transmedia IPs this gen. Unlike the previous gen, it really seems that this gen it is really the time when the folks who watch movies are becoming more interested in games too.

Though I don't expect much success from PSVR2, Spider-man 2 will do gangbusters. Maybe I will even buy PS5 with detachable drive if it looks better than the current one.

 

[Kacho]

Then maybe GamePass wasn't a good idea to set as the future of their Xbox brand.

I still firmly believe that

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Xbox is doomed. And I am not even joking. Time for MS to smash that panic button.

They are way ahead of us, they already pushed the panic button.

around this time last year to be exact. It was a $69B button.

 

[MasterCornholio]

first half of 2022 was bad for PS5 so with the influx on stock its right to think they will be up now but Xbox seems to be hit with constraints now and floundering due to no releases. Tyey need to turn this around ASAP.

They need to improve their production pipeline. Xboxs are clearly selling its Microsoft inability to increase production that's the issue.

Sony found a way to do it but I believe they always designed their system that way. Kind of hard to explain but the PS5 is designed for ease of cost reduction and mass production. It's why I believe they managed to increase their supply so quickly.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Phil said they were in constraint in the last communication about stock levels. Sony has seen an absolute monstrous boost in hardware so I have no idea what is going on with Xbox.

We know Sony was in constraint the first half of 2022 and MS was leading sales, Sony only managed to turn that lead around JUST in the second half of 2022. MS looks to be suffering now with unit sales.

Maybe its part of their plan with ABK deal, they may be doing something slimy to be able to say look how far behind we are?

I dunno, something seems a little off.

They built more Series S than they did Series X... there's not much else to it. The problem is people aren't buying it.

The Series S is how they were able to outproduce Sony early last year. Some successful strategies are short-sighted ultimately and this was one of them.

More and more people are getting 4KTVs because that is basically all you can buy and they're asking themselves is the Series S worth upgraded from the PS4 and X1. The answer has been no.

Sony created the digital and disc versions of the PS5, but these are the same production lines. It's not difficult for them to make a PS5 physical edition instead of the digital. PS4 Digital with a game bundled is cheaper than an XSX... it's kind of a no brainer...

 

[SneakersSO]

They are way ahead of us, they already pushed the panic button.

around this time of year to be exact. It was a $69B button.

Last year, we didn't really have a solid enough picture to understand just how the business plans of Sony & MS were being met by the various markets; I never thought the ATVI sale was a panic buy move. But looking at it now, with 12 months of data in our hands, with supply issues largely in the rear view, its quite clear that ATVI is exactly what you described it as: a $69b panic button.

 

[Ash Sparrow]

Is this the Hill you want to die on

Wondering how many units separate 1st and third, Xbox being down from a year it probably overperformed, yeah I'd like to know. Cause it still could have done decently.

 

[DenchDeckard]

They need to improve their production pipeline. Xboxs are clearly selling its Microsoft inability to increase production that's the issue.

Sony found a way to do it but I believe they always designed their system that way. Kind of hard to explain but the PS5 is designed for ease of cost reduction and mass production. It's why I believe they managed to increase their supply so quickly.

Sony recovered because chip demand dropped. There weren't any on shelves for the first half of last year hence the huge percentages of uplift you are seeing now vs YoY.

Somethings going on with the series x now and I'm not sure what it is. I don't think any of us know as there seems to be less series x now than a year ago which doesn't make sense. Maybe they are going through an internal design change or chip size reduction that's affected production.

They need to get it sorted before starfield.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

They have the studios already to counter Sony, even without AB. So just deliver game after game after game. With the number of studios it should even be no problem if a few of them can't get their prototype into full production.
MS now has the punching power to deliver, they just need to do it consistantly.
Neither Nintendo nor Sony have that one big hit that is solely responsible for their situation. I am not even sure why the Switch is selling, at least not to that extent. And PS5 exclusives are also not really that many, but both have trusting customers, and they think eventually there will be a hit here and there and other stuff runs on it too, so I buy it already. MS has imho tradionally very bad end of gen support and only has a couple of Forza, Halo and Gears fans, but other than that they have not managed to be that synonymous with gaming. Bethesda alone, once people realize their RPGs and id shooters will only be on Xbox, should shift perception. That change has not happened yet. Skyrim etc is on PS+, Deathloop was even a Sony exclusive.
At this point they just have to continue this course. Day and Date on GP is basically all they have objectively in their favor though, since HW difference is kind of neglectible. A diverse game lineup should be coming. And depending on anyone's varying taste this could of course be very important. Sony seems to be betting a bit more on GaaS even though one would assume those games would naturally fit on GP more since, and MS focuses a lot more on GP, while Sony seems not so eager to advertise Plus at all. Getting AB too, would of course be huge, even if CoD stays on Sony and comes to Nintendo, Day and Date on GP would be a talking point for that game more than for anything else. So, imho just doing their current lineup should be noticed with time.

His job was spending money his division did not earn, in hope that it will move the needle some day and at worst be an asset that can be sold again to eg Tencent or some sheikh or whoever is investing some gajillions in something if MS actually ever pulls out. I think there are a lot harder jobs.

I'm just going to say here and without getting into console warring, this is a pipe dream. It's not about the quantity of studios but rather the quality.

Sony's studios are reaching maturity and will only further do so with multiplatform revenue and transmedia revenue. It doesn't matter if you have 10 studios or 100 studios.

Ghost of Tsushima was probably bigger than anything Microsoft did on Xbox One and it was just among a number of titles that Sony put out.

 

[Melchiah]

I'm personally interested but I'm not buying $70 games unless I absolutely want to play it day 1. I suspect sales may pick up a bit once the price drops

It sold 11 million copies in three months.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Sony recovered because chip demand dropped. There weren't any on shelves for the first half of last year hence the huge percentages of uplift you are seeing now vs YoY.

Somethings going on with the series x now and I'm not sure what it is. I don't think any of us know as there seems to be less series x now than a year ago which doesn't make sense. Maybe they are going through an internal design change or chip size reduction that's affected production.

They need to get it sorted before starfield.

Well Sony did do some redesigns which probably helped with production. As for chip demand dropping that would help Microsoft as well.

If something is going on with the Series X it has to be the other components. Especially given how its designed its possible that some of those components are harder to get than what's in the PS5.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Sony recovered because chip demand dropped. There weren't any on shelves for the first half of last year hence the huge percentages of uplift you are seeing now vs YoY.

Somethings going on with the series x now and I'm not sure what it is. I don't think any of us know as there seems to be less series x now than a year ago which doesn't make sense. Maybe they are going through an internal design change or chip size reduction that's affected production.

They need to get it sorted before starfield.

There is no shortage, they are meeting demand.

 

[systemr123]

no games no sales

Gamepass no sales too

 

[Lyrical]

Whaaaaat? Hifi rush isn't a system seller? Well colour me surprised!

 

[xiskza]

NPD no longer sharing the platform specific charts is so shady of them! Cant we get them replaced by another company?

 

[DenchDeckard]

There is no shortage, they are meeting demand.

Of course you would say that...

 

[DeepEnigma]

Of course you would say that...

You can literally buy them right now. In stores and online.

Amazon.com: Xbox Series X – Forza Horizon 5 Bundle : Everything Else

Amazon.com: Xbox Series X – Forza Horizon 5 Bundle : Everything Else

www.amazon.com

If there were a shortage through demand, it would not be so easy like it wasn't initially.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Of course you would say that...

Then let's be practical about it. Does MS have problems manufacturing Series S? Why would they have more problems manufacturing the Series X in 2022/early 23 than they did in 2020/2021? Why would yields get worse?

Have they overshot their Series S internal forecasts by having so many Series S in stores that they were doing heavy discounts? Maybe doing that with Series X could be really bad marketing?

This isn't about how I feel about Xbox. I'm an open book there, but we're talking about numbers here not feelings.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Okay, so for your first point: one of the big things MS truly needed to alleviate with this console generation was getting new users to enter the eco. The XSS is the big thing for this, and there were a couple of early numbers that indicated the plan was working in a few select foreign markets, namely JP and India. They also have some metric that Phil touted where some significant % of XSS owners never owned an X1.

From the very beginning I assumed that Series S was their admission that they are planning to sell it to the people who would buy Playstation 5 anyway.

I don't think an increase in releases will really move the needle materially for Xbox. There has always been a consumer loophole that MS seemingly has never bothered trying to answer: what about Steam cannibalizing Xbox adoption? yeah, Starfield is gonna be big, but Steam is at the biggest user point now than its ever been at. PC gaming keeps growing while the Xbox keeps shrinking in users. So why would users buy into their console when they can just get their titles on Steam or even PC GP if they want GP?

Yeah, no doubt it contributes a lot too. Starfield will do a lot in Steam.

These are all the factors working against MS' current business plan. And something is going to give, and very very soon.

I am not sure if Steam releases is the current business plan for Microsoft. They have been releasing games on Steam for years. The thing is that just like with Surfaces, Microsoft does not live or die by the hardware sales at all - recurring revenue from the subscription service and online games allows them to bother less with. It is like with Google Search and Bing like Satya said - it is important for Google to defend their market share, but for Microsoft it all is incremental.

 

[Gambit2483]

It sold 11 million copies in three months.

And? I was referring it's recent drop in sales, not it's total overall sales...which are great, esp for just 3 months.

 

[SLB1904]

And? I was referring it's recent drop in sales, not it's total overall sales...which are great, esp for just 3 months.

I have an odd feeling it might stick around for a little while once these new ps5 owners are done with hogwarts

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Still time to correct course for MS, but they screwed up by not capitalizing on the two first years, when the insane shortages put a dent on Sony's plans to outsell the PS4 by a healthy margin. The next 12 months will, I think, decide the fate of this generation for both players.

Not sure where people think the time is coming from.

It takes a minimum of 4 years to produce AAA games. Microsoft is locked into its current strategy. That strategy for 2023 comes from 2019 at the latest, and 2024 from 2020 at the latest. And in reality, these AAAA-type system-selling games take even longer.

People think you can just change course but it's not really that simple. You can buy more exclusives if you have the money for it either via agreement or by acquisition, but if this merger fails, we'll have to see what appetite Microsoft's board and CEO have for buying exclusives when you can almost guarantee the 70 billion deal was sold with the idea that buying exclusives doesn't work and isn't efficient or effective.

 

[vivftp]

Right?

Just really think about it, and you gotta tip off your hat to SIE's management for their strategic, ever-building momentum strategies:

• January-February = PSVR 2 + Hogwart's Legacy + TLOU Show
• March-April = All of the above + Horizon Burning Shores
• May-June = Final Fantasy XVI
• H2 2023 = Spider-Man 2, TLOU Online (marketing and/or release), Helldivers 2, PS5 w/ detachable disc drive.

In between, there will be smaller exclusive games like Stellar Blade, Pacific Drive, Eternights, etc. Another big third-party like Hogwart's Legacy in the form of Avatar, which is also being marketed by Sony.

2023 will be crazy for PlayStation.

Add to that...

- Forspoken in January
- Destiny 2 Lightfall this month
- A rumored State of Play before the end of this month
- MLB The Show in March
- A rumored showcase around or before June which can bring with it any number of possible additional releases this year.
- Gran Turismo movie in August
- Twisted Metal series dropping sometime this year
- Rumored by a credible insider to be aiming for 30.5 million units next FY

 

[demigod]

Okay, so for your first point: one of the big things MS truly needed to alleviate with this console generation was getting new users to enter the eco. The XSS is the big thing for this, and there were a couple of early numbers that indicated the plan was working in a few select foreign markets, namely JP and India. They also have some metric that Phil touted where some significant % of XSS owners never owned an X1.

The larger issue is the production costs of their machines, relative to Sony's. By MS' own admission from the last year, they are still losing over $100 on average for every XS unit produced. No clue how much on XSX units. There was a lot of ink written in early 2022 about Sony's production shortages hampering their ability to ship and hit their forecasts. Note that that is NOT what is happening here with the XS; MS isn't having production issues, they are merely producing far fewer of them, in sync with demand. MS lost an absolute fortune on the over-production they did on X1X's at the end of the last generation. Given that they had a massive loss per unit, and seeing some early signs last year that demand was being met (there were several markets even in early 2022 where XSS stock was very easy to come by - its not a supply issue). But seeing how the XS is pretty available in even their largest markets while they are still losing significant market share - its a big problem. I'm not sure how MS gets out of this situation.

I don't think an increase in releases will really move the needle materially for Xbox. There has always been a consumer loophole that MS seemingly has never bothered trying to answer: what about Steam cannibalizing Xbox adoption? yeah, Starfield is gonna be big, but Steam is at the biggest user point now than its ever been at. PC gaming keeps growing while the Xbox keeps shrinking in users. So why would users buy into their console when they can just get their titles on Steam or even PC GP if they want GP?

These are all the factors working against MS' current business plan. And something is going to give, and very very soon.

XSS didn't have a shortage in the states since September 2021. Wouldn't surprise me if they have a ton of stock in their warehouses that they can't move. That could explain the deep discounts we are seeing.

 

[demigod]

Whaaaaat? Hifi rush isn't a system seller? Well colour me surprised!

It's already won so many GOTY awards among gamers yet folks ain't buying the game.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Then let's be practical about it. Does MS have problems manufacturing Series S? Why would they have more problems manufacturing the Series X in 2022/early 23 than they did in 2020/2021? Why would yields get worse?

Have they overshot their Series S internal forecasts by having so many Series S in stores that they were doing heavy discounts? Maybe doing that with Series X could be really bad marketing?

This isn't about how I feel about Xbox. I'm an open book there, but we're talking about numbers here not feelings.

I'm just touching on that, we had a thread on here saying it's out of stock in a lot of Europe and is more scarce than ps5 now. Even currys on the UK is out of stock of standalone.

Like I said I don't know why. Why was Sony out of stock for 6 months and then is now readily available.

Maybe there's a redesign coming or something. Maybe they are holding back stock to make sonys dominance look larger while ABK is on going?

That 69 billion transaction is worth a lifetime of investment for Microsoft so I could totally see them with holding stock until it goes through or doesn't lol

6 to 12 months of console sales being 30 percent down year on year is a drop in the ocean compared to that deal.

Phils last communication was stock will be tight, as to why your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Lyrical]

It's already won so many GOTY awards among gamers yet folks ain't buying the game.

It's because gamepass increases sales.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

i was trying to be not ass-harsh.

That's nice of you, but it's not really helping MS :/

This is the worst part of this for Microsoft. I'd love to see a breakdown here and see if the series X availability is still the primary problem here. That would be the best case scenario for Microsoft. Not being able to sell at 240 is pretty much a doomsday scenario.

I don't know about the US, but a lot of accounts across parts of Europe, even the UK, seem to suggest Series X is relatively available regularly in those territories. It's not a crapshoot if you're able to find one, though maybe supply could be a bit better.

The thing is, MS should've known from the outset what territories were going to favor the X, and had the supply readily available for them. I understand for the period where they were upgrading servers with Series X units, why supply for that model would've been low then, but there isn't really much a reason why it would be drastically low now except either out of incompetence from MS in anticipating the production pipeline to meet demand, or that demand is just very soft in general.

In a best-case, the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. But given all other factors, if it leans anywhere, it's towards the 'lacking demand' argument. They've been in this business long enough and know the importance of US & UK long enough to prioritize Series X availability for those markets.

They made a really poor decision in doubling down on XSS stock rather than XSX. Ironically heading into a recession if we are heading into a recession, this move still might pay off down the road, but right now it looks like a foolish decision. They need to shift gears and produce as many XSX as they can, but those XSS are going to stay on shelves which is a bad look for the brand.

Will it pay off? We've had recessions before and that didn't always gravitate people to the cheapest box on the market. In fact just being the cheapest alone isn't enough, look at what happened with Dreamcast and later the Gamecube. I think even in a recession, people will go with what presents the comprehensive best value to them, and that doesn't look like it's Xbox.

Plus let's say the recession (if it comes) doesn't fully kick into effect until latter 2024; we could see a temporary PS5 sales promotion by then for the holidays, we're probably going to get a price drop for the Switch this year, Nintendo might do the Switch/Switch Lite strategy from Day 1 for the Switch 2...Microsoft having the cheap price of Series S may not cut it.

Truth Bombs:

MS is so incredibly fortunate that PS5 was sales capped due to shortages in the first two years, creating relative sales parity artificially. Otherwise the gap would be insurmountable.

Series S is completely unwanted by the general pop. I've been saying since day 1 people don't want a weak POS, they want a true next gen machine. They should have doubled down on XSX but they clearly weren't confident in it alone. A cheap underpowered console option? They can just keep their existing last gen console, whos going to spend another 300 for a marginal upgrade. It also limits your main consoles potential.

Gamepass is fine but only when they start having crazy next gen games on it. People aren't going to choose Xbox over PS because Plagues Tale and Hi Fi are "free" on their service. Those games don't do anything unless added to a large pile of AAA great games.

Honestly, I think if Series S were sold instead as an upgraded One S and pitched as being BC for One X games, it would've probably been doing better. Keep it RDNA2 but with lower TF, all the same features as Series X though, and also position it as a Game Pass cloud streaming & multimedia app streaming box. They probably could've sold it for $199 or even less doing it that way, pack it with a controller & universal remote. Would've required even less RAM, smaller storage, weaker CPU & GPU thus smaller chips and could've possibly could've had a lot more Series X units to produce, too.

They should've tried getting bundled subs to Disney+, HBOMax, Hulu, Netflix etc. on the thing from Day 1, rolled them into a Game Pass subscription at a good price, and I think they would've actually done a lot better that way. Plus you wouldn't have a system mandating devs make native versions of games for it (unlike the Series S we actually have), but maybe you get a couple of native releases here and there if the dev chose to (plus it can still play all XBO games natively through BC; 360 and OG Xbox games too, obviously).

I'm actually pretty stunned Microsoft did not do this for Series S in hindsight, and now with Project Keystone shelved it probably has no chance of coming out.

I really don't think a sizeable release calendar fixes this situation. These games are largely all PC games now, MS just hasn't caught onto that market reality yet. In fact, the big thing that has kept their SW revenue from appearing even worse than it is is that MS' output is selling on Steam. You can see the Steam results on things like Grounded or Sea of Thieves and see that it sells. Its just not pushing adoption in the arena they'd prefer, which is GP growth and Xbox HW sales growth. Nothing they have on the pipe fixes that. And as for Avowed or Hellblade 2 - the larger market doesn't even know what these games are. They are basically only speaking to a select few group of users. And again - day 1 PC/Steam sales right there. PC gaming being at its biggest point ever directly hurts the point of adoption they wanted users to primarily flock to (GP/Console). They could release 4 GOTY-tier games this year that set sales records on Steam and that still wouldn't change the reality they are working with.

Their games being on PC Day 1 was always going to cause erosion of sales on Xbox, and Microsoft pushing Steam for those PC sales even more so. I'd argue what's really helped helped MS's software revenue hasn't been sales of XGS games on Steam, but revenue from acquired studio & publisher assets. Minecraft back in 2013/2014, and Zenimax in 2021 being the two big ones. Before that, Microsoft could never include Minecraft, Elder Scrolls Online, DOOM etc. revenue in that of Xbox's own; they're probably looking for a similar revenue injection from ABK so should the deal get approved.

You're right that nothing in the pipeline really "fixes" the problem. That said, if they could get those games coming, make sure they're relatively high-quality, try iterating on at least a few of them to build into actual franchises, and can sustain that for the remainder of the generation...they COULD help Xbox recover good faith and regain a good amount of lost mindshare which would be helpful towards their next console outing. Sony more or less did this with the PS3; Microsoft's mistake is that they SHOULD have done this with the XBO's twilight years. Instead they completely dropped the ball, relied on a service as a crutch that hasn't panned out, and are paying the price for not even really trying to build momentum in the area that mattered most in the XBO's last few years.

The amount of brand respect and mindshare they lost from 2016 to 2020 can't be understated and it feels like the truth of that is finally catching up with them after artificial factors outside of Sony's control have began to subside.

Add to that the ungodly losses they take for every HW unit they do sell, and the situation is increasingly becoming untenable. The radio silence from Xbox right now, starting with the CMA last week, is fucking *deafening* at this point.

Yeah, and I don't really feel "sorry" for them either, it's weird how some people add that emotional type of response to the mix. At most, it's unfortunate for them the situation, but they had many tools & options to avert what's happening, from happening. They just didn't make sure the foundation was strong enough.

If ABK closed tomorrow, it wouldn't make a material difference to the fundamental issues facing the Xbox's current business plans. They need to find a way to make it profitable to actually produce HW - this is something Sony focused on figuring out with the PS4 gen due to how long they had to eat HW losses on PS3. Nintendo has operated this way after the Gamecube taught them a similar lesson. It really shackles your ability to expand hardware marketshare if you have to spend 2 years per user on average worth of sw purchases to make up for the losses you ate to get them into the ecosystem.

Remember the talk a few years ago that said Sony were "paying close attention" to Nintendo's Switch OLED? I think we know why they were doing that now; truth is the high-end consoles aren't going down in MSRP as much as consoles in older generations did, and that's in large part because production costs are not dropping down anywhere to the rate it did for systems like the PS1, PS2 etc.

Even so, smart engineering and planning beforehand can make a lot of difference. Both MS and Sony came to similar conclusions on this, but ultimately I think Sony chose the better option. MS's solution was to "simply" design a weaker, cheaper system to compliment the more powerful one, and have them both sell on the market simultaneously from Day 1. I genuinely think they more or less gave up on a real attempt of a system design that could be pared down a couple or so years down the road.

OTOH, Sony still wanted to attempt that more traditional approach, but they've designed PS5 in a way where they can make some rather smart changes to the design to lower production costs, increase profit margins (outside of the actual price increases, which were unfortunate in a sense but a reaction to increased supply costs), and help facilitate expected price cuts in the following years when those become necessary.

I don't know IF Microsoft can simply redesign the Series X without a disc drive; even if they can, they still need two motherboards. That type of modularity was probably influenced by their experience in the server markets and it works great there, but could end up a liability for the console when it comes to reasonably lowering production costs in a timely manner. But, that's the trade-off they take when the Series X is designed for both regular console & server usage, it's the same reason the RAM setup is the way it is, as another example.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Maybe they are holding back stock to make sonys dominance look larger while ABK is on going?

Don't say crap like that it's embarassing.

Your most likely answer is either the components or Microsoft simply chooses to produce less due to demand.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I don't even think we need to wait that long. I'm pretty sure this generation has already been decided. PlayStation came in hot off of PS4 while Xbox was dragging its own body across the line with XBO. PS5 came out marketing new features and big games at launch with various solid releases for the year ahead. Xbox Series was mostly more of the same with no big releases until a whole year after launch and one of them, arguably the most important, ultimately ended up falling well short. The first two years have watched game after game come out on PS5 while XBS struggles to get consistent, high-profile, and impactful releases. The occasional lower budget gems like Hi-Fi Rush just aren't going to move the needle. Especially when even PlayStation's re-releases are getting more attention than most of Xbox's new games.

No matter how good this year is for Xbox, it's not going to shift things because PlayStation isn't slowing down. Starfield could be amazing but it won't make people forget about God of War and Horizon and then get them to ignore Final Fantasy and Spider-Man coming up. We're seeing clear indications that the neck-and-neck race for North America is slipping out of Xbox's fingers while being painfully obvious that global sales outside that region are still not at all favorable for them. Gamepass has acted as an expensive flotation device to keep Xbox's head above water while hoping the content ship arrives soon enough to save them from a storm. It takes years and a number of big things to happen, both good and bad, for a mindshare shift to happen. That COULD happen this generation but by the time that begins changing sales this generation will be over.

PlayStation has been firing on all cylinders for over a decade now. Xbox, in all that time, still has not mounted a truly effective response yet. Until they do, what we've been seeing happen since 2010 will just play on repeat.

I think it is more of an anchor than a floatation device. It's a broken model and it is acting as a ballast for Microsoft.

 

[Woopah]

Most interesting points for me:

• Fire Emblem at 5 and One Piece shows both had successful launches. Anime games not going away anytime soon
• Very good debut for Dead Space, EA going back to single player games is paying off
• As others have pointed out Xbox being down is worrying. I wasn't expecting it to be below Switch for revenue3
• Switch being up YoY proves that it was very supply constrained this time last year
• Forespoken being at 7 is okay but I expect it to drop heavily in the coming months
• Big boosts for TLoU and MH:Rise from the TV Show / port
• Only 3 Nintendo games in the top 20 is the lowest its been for a long time. I expect this to become the norm now that vouchers are back

GTA 5 OUT OF THE TOP 20

Not in EU, at least. I asked, out of curiosity, 3 weeks ago about stock of next-gen consoles in a big retailer here in Portugal and they told me, while ps5 stock was higher, it wasn't enough to have them in stores, it was only readily available via their online shop, Xbox he said they had stock but it simply wasn't moving much (but it also doesn't help that it wasn't in display at the store, if someone wants one, they have to ask an employee and he will get it from the warehouse, and people aren't psychic to predict that).

Edit: 0_o Hey, where is GTA5 in that chart??????

GTA5 hasn't bene in the top 20 for a while, Take 2 asked NPD to not include digital sales in its reports anymore.

You forgot MLB The Show in March-April for PS.

MLB The Show is multiplatform now