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[Thunder Monkey]

The entire market has changed drastically within the span of a generation.

Gaming consoles are increasingly being looked at exclusively as the place to get big multi-million dollar titles which can be a meaty market, but doesn't lend to adoption between. Handhelds are losing dominance over the more casual gamer to Apps and Facebook games.

The state of the industry right now can be blamed purely on nothing having a "new"ness factor. But since we've got nothing new in aside from handhelds (that market has changed drastically in the Western world recently) I can't say if this will affect home consoles overall. The newest system on the market is about six years old.

If none of these next systems catch on... then we might need to start panicking.

 

[Celine]

PSP < 17K < 50K < PSV < Wii < 90K < DS < 100k < 3DS < PS3 < 150K < 360

Mmmm, creamy !

 

[Nirolak]

Valid point.










Wasn't aware they had a price drop, makes more sense now.



Yeah that makes sense, but I agree it will bite them in the ass later. I really think a revision will be released next year that also can be used as a Wii-U controller.

I imagine the DS will do pretty well this Fall to boot when Black 2 & White 2 come out, so you can buy your kid the newest Pokemon game and a handheld for like $135, or perhaps even less if they bundle.

 

[Pachterballs]

the US economy sucks. People are probably too poor to buy stuff.

anyhow; Dragon's Dogma bombing is a real pity. I hope we get numbers.

 

[Satchel]

Yikes. 360 number 1 with only 160K?

Christ what did the other 2 do?

 

[JaxJag]

I think it's a combination of things. One, there's a lot of digital sales that are happening and are not being counted that is making the market look like it's doing worse than it really is.

This has also been a very bad year for retail games. What has come out so far? Mass Effect 3 and what else? Max Payne 3 was never a huge IP, Rockstar should have either rebooted the franchise entirely, or left off the number 3.

Stuff like Dragons Dogma just isn't going to do well. Name is terrible, no co-op, uninteresting style. I have the game and really like it, but a lot of things would need to be different for that game to be successful.

We need more big game releases, there just has been almost none 6 months into this year.

 

[specialguy]

Info links added for anyone who wants to work it out themselves:

360: 160K
PS3: 124K
3DS: 113.5K
Wii: 71K
PSV: >50K, <56.8K

1 2 3 4 5 6

As you can see, some of this is based on rough numbers from last May, so it's not exact.

So, am I correct our numbers are going to get worse and worse as we move away from working off exact hardware YoY comparisons?

EG, some error this month, when we work off these numbers in May 13 the errors will then compound a little more, etc...

I mean besides 360 which will be exact.

Ugh.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

So, am I correct our numbers are going to get worse and worse as we move away from working off exact hardware YoY comparisons?

EG, some error this month, when we work off these numbers in May 13 the errors will then compound a little more, etc...

Ugh.

Yup, just like our PAL charts threads!

 

[Thunder Monkey]

So, am I correct our numbers are going to get worse and worse as we move away from working off exact hardware YoY comparisons?

EG, some error this month, when we work off these numbers in May 13 the errors will then compound a little more, etc...

I mean besides 360 which will be exact.

Ugh.

Yep.

But there was money to be made!

Not that I'm judging. But it is what it is.

 

[Diablos54]

I imagine the DS will do pretty well this Fall to boot when Black 2 & White 2 come out, so you can buy your kid the newest Pokemon game and a handheld for like $135, or perhaps even less if they bundle.

Nintendo should bundle it with the 3DS at a competitive price otherwise I see lots of people who don't have either a 3DS or DS picking the latter. This isn't a problem in Japan because the DS is long dead, but based on this months NPD it could be a big problem in the U.S. I still think it was the right idea having B/W2 on the DS in the long run, especially since NSMB2 will arrive in a similar timeframe, but it could have given the 3DS an even bigger boost which is needs ATM. Basically, if NSMB2 doesn't start pushing 3DS hardware in a good way, it'll be a king wait until the next Pokemon comes out to do the same.

 

[grimshawish]

Gaming consoles are increasingly being looked at exclusively as the place to get big multi-million dollar titles which can be a meaty market, but doesn't lend to adoption between. Handhelds are losing dominance over the more casual gamer to Apps and Facebook games..

Facebook games are now dead and investors seem to finally be realising that online gaming is not a new thing (seriously the whole facebook thing is a great example of some fucked up human conditioning - in terms of how analysts/investors act so fucking idioticly):
http://www.livemint.com/2012/06/13212806/Zynga-shares-dive-as-craze-for.html?atype=tp

Apps? Apps will do very well however, in the coming years they will innovate (not like browser gaming hasn't innovated and grown, but it reached its peak about 6 years ago and its only that a bunch of idiots have suddenly realised such a thing exists and think Farmville offers new gameplay mechanics) and generally we'll look at it more positively than just now as I do think we'll see some exciting development over time.

But dedicated game systems are important.

I still think Nintendo are missing a trick with a 3DS revision that offers more battery; that way their offering better games and a battery that won't have its life sucked dry by all the different apps/ideas being squeezed onto a single system.

Nintendo just need to really get on the ball and think about what their customers want. Yes, they want games - but being able to play them is important. Battery is part of this.

 

[Foffy]

I think the issues we see here lie within more than just generation fatigue. Lack of original titles, falling out of the middle ground, high retail pricing... coupled with the fact that the economy hasn't gotten better and people are spending less and less, especially on games that have become too similar.

Truly a terrible situation the industry has found itself in and I don't see it getting any better next year.

This is too true. As I've mentioned in another thread I think, I'm buying less and less games, and this isn't because my interest is waning. It's just so much of the shit pumped out are games I don't care for, and some franchises making questionable decisions so I don't jump aboard, like Ninja Gaiden III and Armored Core V.

If the industry keeps this track record going, I suppose I'll have less to play, but there's probably a lot of people like me that will make their situation worse by having less to play and want to purchase. I don't mind $40 3DS games because there's so few that actually interest me, so that should tell you how I find the portable horizon to be.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

I imagine the DS will do pretty well this Fall to boot when Black 2 & White 2 come out, so you can buy your kid the newest Pokemon game and a handheld for like $135, or perhaps even less if they bundle.

But how many people/kids buying Black and White 2 don't already have a DS or has upgraded to a 3DS?

I think it's a combination of things. One, there's a lot of digital sales that are happening and are not being counted that is making the market look like it's doing worse than it really is.

You can't download a console.

 

[chixdiggit]

From Pachter

Damn. That's too bad. Curious what Steam numbers are though.

 

[DTKT]

So, Max Payne underperforming?

First Rockstar branded game to do so?

 

[dreamer3kx]

COD destroyed gaming.

 

[jbug617]

So, Max Payne underperforming?

First Rockstar branded game to do so?

maybe Bully or The Warriors.

 

[Pranay]

I think it's a combination of things. One, there's a lot of digital sales that are happening and are not being counted that is making the market look like it's doing worse than it really is.

This has also been a very bad year for retail games. What has come out so far? Mass Effect 3 and what else? Max Payne 3 was never a huge IP, Rockstar should have either rebooted the franchise entirely, or left off the number 3.

Stuff like Dragons Dogma just isn't going to do well. Name is terrible, no co-op, uninteresting style. I have the game and really like it, but a lot of things would need to be different for that game to be successful.

We need more big game releases, there just has been almost none 6 months into this year.

Games on Xbla/PSN are doing well. but most are indie games or games which are priced @ 20 to 30$

Problem is whether how 60$ do in digital market. Spending 50$ and 60$ for games which are not diablo/skyrim etc in digital is too much and you cant resell your game.

So thats why i think 60$ games are genreally not doing well seeing the retail sales

 

[NateDrake]

Info links added for anyone who wants to work it out themselves:

360: 160K
PS3: 124K
3DS: 113.5K
Wii: 71K
PSV: >50K, <56.8K

1 2 3 4 5 6

As you can see, some of this is based on rough numbers from last May, so it's not exact.

My predictions aren't too bad if these are accurate.

 

[twothunder]

PSP < 17K < 50K < PSV < Wii < 90K < DS < 100k < 3DS < PS3 < 150K < 360

This month's sales are pretty horrible all around.
Just seeing that Vita number makes me wonder how they will ever reach Sony's goal of 10 million.

 

[BlackJace]

Nintendo should bundle it with the 3DS at a competitive price otherwise I see lots of people who don't have either a 3DS or DS picking the latter. This isn't a problem in Japan because the DS is long dead, but based on this months NPD it could be a big problem in the U.S. I still think it was the right idea having B/W2 on the DS in the long run, especially since NSMB2 will arrive in a similar timeframe, but it could have given the 3DS an even bigger boost which is needs ATM. Basically, if NSMB2 doesn't start pushing 3DS hardware in a good way, it'll be a king wait until the next Pokemon comes out to do the same.

That would be a bad idea considering DS games look terrible blown up on the 3DS screen. I'm still baffled at how they couldn't scale properly.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Not looking good for Dragon's Dogma. =(
Damn shame to see how my current favorite of 2012 is doing.

 

[A Human Becoming]

So based on what we know, here are my estimates:

YTD
DS - 490,648
360 - 1,463,000
PS3 - 1,184,000
Wii - 718,000
3DS - 896,741
PSV - 563,400

LTD
DS - 51,635,649+
360 - 34,127,373
PS3 - 21,161,921
Wii - 39,402,494
3DS - 4,982,741
PSV - 563,400

 

[schuelma]

I have a really bad feeling about next gen. Someone tell me I'm overreacting and the industry will be fine.

 

[Celine]

Nintendo is losing money on every 3DS sold and will until about September of this year.

So instead of killing off the DSi they are riding that pony as far out as possible.

It will eventually bite them in the ass and I fully expect them to shut down all DS production after this holiday season.

I disagree, eventually Nintendo will kill off DS and the audience is likely to migrate to 3DS as happened when Nintendo decided to kill off GBA in 2007 to boost even more the DS sales.

Vita though is fucked up, that prospect isn't even there seeing how PSP has just sold 16K.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

So based on what we know, here are my estimates:

YTD
DS - 490,648
360 - 1,463,000
PS3 - 1,184,000
Wii - 718,000
3DS - 896,741
PSV - 563,400

LTD
DS - 51,635,649+
360 - 34,127,373
PS3 - 21,161,921
Wii - 39,402,494
3DS - 4,982,741
PSV - 563,400

Prediction: the only numbers we get from Nintendo's PR next month is "3DS crosses 5 million mark in North America."

 

[Kagari]

I have a really bad feeling about next gen. Someone tell me I'm overreacting and the industry will be fine.

I don't think you're overreacting at all. No one really predicted something like this would happen.

 

[Nirolak]

I have a really bad feeling about next gen. Someone tell me I'm overreacting and the industry will be fine.

I expect next gen to focus on ~30-40 franchises that sell 3+ million copies, and everything else is digital.

 

[Pranay]

I don't think you're overreacting at all. No one really predicted something like this would happen.

Last year sales were a bit higher then expected tbh.

I expect next gen to focus on ~30-40 franchises that sell 3+ million copies, and everything else is digital.

Yep 20 and 30$ game

@Nirloak Any chance of 50%/60$ games like max payne 3 selling really well digitally @ that price?

 

[Sky Chief]

Well fortunately E3 was amazing...

 

[schuelma]

I expect next gen to focus on ~30-40 franchises that sell 3+ million copies, and everything else is digital.

I said make me feel better!

 

[NateDrake]

Prediction: the only numbers we get from Nintendo's PR next month is "3DS crosses 5 million mark in North America."

I thought they did that already or was that 4.5 around January?

 

[captmcblack]

I really think it's mostly to do with the economy.

There were enough games and new stuff and even price drops/new bundles to get people to buy stuff, but nobody has any money or jobs to buy them.

 

[Petrae]

I have a really bad feeling about next gen. Someone tell me I'm overreacting and the industry will be fine.

Gen4 will be significantly slower than this console generation in terms of revenue and installed userbase numbers. The big question is how much lower these numbers will be, and whether investors decide that it's time to get out because the ROI won't be worthwhile.

The console sector will live on for at least another generation. We just have to learn to accept lower levels of success and that consoles will have to co-exist with an exploding mobile market.

 

[Nirolak]

I said make me feel better!

Those 30-40 franchises will sure look and sell great!

 

[hosannainexcelsis]

I said make me feel better!

Embrace the digital future.

 

[Celine]

I expect next gen to focus on ~30-40 franchises that sell 3+ million copies, and everything else is digital.

Non-Nintendo japanese games (in retails) will be more rare than a white fly then ...

 

[Kusagari]

I think people largely are overreacting to these numbers. This gen has been going on forever and people are tired of it. The only real horrible sign is the Vita, but, really, it's a badly marketed device with no games of mainstream appeal. Besides the tech it has nothing going for it.

I would hold back gloom and doom until we see how Wii U does.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I thought they did that already or was that 4.5 around January?

Early March actually.

 

[Agent Ironside]

Good, maybe this will make MS and Sony bring out new consoles sooner, rather than later.

 

[Foffy]

Gen4

Don't you mean 8th Gen?

 

[lastplayed]

Everyone is playing Diablo.

I'm a PC gamer and I'm not!

 

[Kagari]

Well fortunately E3 was amazing...

 

[Sky Chief]

I really think it's mostly to do with the economy.

There were enough games and new stuff and even price drops/new bundles to get people to buy stuff, but nobody has any money or jobs to buy them.

The economy was worse last year. It is a lack of interest, we needed a new console generation last year.

 

[Pranay]

The economy was worse last year. It is a lack of interest, we needed a new console generation last year.

Games selling @ 60$ wont work either tbh atleast this late gen

 

[Kagari]

The economy was worse last year. It is a lack of interest, we needed a new console generation last year.

Worse but not by much. It's still bad.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I have a really bad feeling about next gen. Someone tell me I'm overreacting and the industry will be fine.

That is why MS is selling their console as something more than just a gaming machine. As much as we all hate it.

 

[Sothpaw]

Everyone is playing Diablo.

Yup.

Just like I do with all ~10 hour games, I will wait for a major steam discount for Max Payne.

 

[1-D_FTW]

For people placing this solely on the economy, one word: ipad. Look at its sales. It's not affecting everything.

 

[Zee-Row]

I really hate these low handheld numbers , I don't want a touchscreen only future.