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NPD November 2012 Results [Up6: Black Ops 2, Halo 4, Most Wanted, Assassin's Creed 3]

If I had to predict I'd say almost every one of those will bomb. The Last of Us is the only one that could buck the trend. God of War will probably be a mild hit, which would be a disappointment for the franchise. Beyond Two Souls, Sly Cooper, Puppeteer, all mega bombs.

Yeah, all those should have came out this year. Sony needed those... Especially last of us.
 

braves01

Banned
the system has been selling out at a decent pace throughout the month, but they haven't been impossible to find. it's not like the 360 or wii launch where it was incredibly hard to find, and i think it'll have a pretty slow 2013, prompting some major changes in the latter half of the year to get things moving. expect some months where it sells worse than the ps3 in america.

I really expect a price cut by next fall to counter the new xbox.
 
Number of original IPs: 0
Number of first sequel: 1 (Skylanders Giants)
Number of second sequels: 0
Number of third sequels: 0
Number of fourth sequels: 1 (Just Dance 4 . . . maybe?)
Number of N sequels where N is at least 5 and I'm not gonna count: 8

:-/


Edit: We need a new console generation if for no other reason than to get some new fresh IP.



Damn . . . he's right. 9/10 games on the list are on at least their 5th iteration. Ugh . . . I understand publishers being reluctant to take risks with multi-million dollar budgets. But on the other hand, we can't just live on endless retreads.

I doubt originality is coming back to retail. Budgets are going to be too big for retail for a lot of majorly new stuff to be approved by publishers. The smaller, downloadable area is where new ideas have gone and are probably going to stay.
 
Than it depends on what Microsft means for 'nearly'.
If PS3 sold 750k which sounds more reasonable considering the 525k units sold during BF, double that is 1.5m which in my mind is not nearly 1.26m.
But maybe I gave them too much credit for being realistic in their claims :p


i agree.. but if PS3 sold near 700K should be nearly enough to 1.26 (imho)

again.. without any concrete indication , it's just speculation

waiting for some Sony NPD Press release (if any) :D
 
Under 790k, hmm by how much I wonder

Is it leaning closer to 630k or 790k?

Closer to 790k. When cream sugar drops these sorts of hints they're usually right on the money.

Pretty good sales for both MS and Sony this November.

Wii U is going to have a really difficult uphill battle.
 
The EA sports guy tweeted this too, not sure if it was posted, FWIW.

https://twitter.com/EA_Jorge/status/276831107981402112

Hmm, maybe EA now thinks Battlefield has a shot of dethroning COD. I don't see it happening though.

It might also be down because people didn't really like MW3 as much as BO.

I Know people say BO2 hurt Halo 4 and I agree with that and I also feel Halo 4 had an effect on BO2. I don't think it was a good thing that they released in the same month.
 

QaaQer

Member
I can't help but think those PS3 numbers that it was a huge disappointment; if it sold ~550k during the Black Friday, it did pathetic numbers for the rest of the month. The Vita numbers are an embarrassment and there isn't much of anything to help it right now besides a potentially small bump from an official price cut bundle, but they've really missed the mark by not getting that out before the shopping season really started. Their holiday games were a complete and utter failure. LittleBigPlanet Karting? I'd be surprised if people even knew this game existed. No marketing from Sony... because they absolutely fucking suck at it. Those All-Stars number really say it all... absolutely horrible.

Not a good November for Sony. Pretty horrible, if I think.

Microsoft has no reason to rush the next Xbox. The U.S is the market for them now. They can take the time they need. Sony on the other hand might be a little more pressed now.

I agree that Sony isn't putting any pressure on MS.

My guess is that they release the xbox/win8 mediabox (non-gaming) in the first half of next year for $99, and then soft launch 720 proper nov/dec. I can see MS focusing on content delivery more than gaming going forward.

Sony's plans I'm not too sure about. I doubt they will be releasing a monster console. & I can see them waiting until the company as a whole is profitable before releasing their next console. I really doubt they want the PS4 to add to their debt. If things work out, mid 2014 seems pretty reasonable for their launch. There position in the market though...IDK.

Nintendo will have the low end, and MS will have the high end gaming + cheap mediabox, and Sony will have?? If they had the must-have IP of Nintendo, I'd feel alot more confident about the playstation future. As it is, I'm expecting Vita type success with the PS4.
 

Miles X

Member
Closer to 790k. When cream sugar drops these sorts of hints they're usually right on the money.

Pretty good sales for both MS and Sony this November.

Wii U is going to have a really difficult uphill battle.

Unless you have the numbers don't make statements like they're facts ...

All we have is 630k - 790k and MS saying 'nearly x2'
 
No point in a price drop when you have no software to move units.

It's really that simple. If $200 bundles for Vita's biggest software releases (to date, in the foreseeable future, and likely ever) could only move 160K on Black Friday, how much good would a price cut next year do?
 

AniHawk

Member
vita wound up doing pretty well for itself. it's basically its launch month again, and those were decent numbers. we'll see how much better it can do. i was kinda surprised to see a pile of vita bundles haphazardly stacked on top of each other behind a display case at target yesterday. i wonder how many units sony stuffed down the channels.
 
Unless you have the numbers don't make statements like they're facts ...

All we have is 630k - 790k and MS saying 'nearly x2'

MS wants to stretch how well their console sold relative to the competition, I don't think cream sugar has an agenda. And, like mentioned, there's another combo he could have used if it indeed was closer to the 630K figure.

The PS3 black friday sales make sense in the context of ~790K sales, but not ~630K sales.
 

Klocker

Member
If thats the case then what the heck was Greenberg going on about nearly "2x". Maybe he's not good at math lol.

I was thinking PS3 could be 690~ and would be good enough to say nearly 2x... much more than 700 and that's a stretch

1.26 million half is 630 so 650 - 700~ would be about right
 
the system has been selling out at a decent pace throughout the month, but they haven't been impossible to find. it's not like the 360 or wii launch where it was incredibly hard to find, and i think it'll have a pretty slow 2013, prompting some major changes in the latter half of the year to get things moving. expect some months where it sells worse than the ps3 in america.

Yeah, November was probably hit to some degree by demand shortages just because of the very often replenishment rates in such a tiny space of time.

December should be unaffected. So no excuses there.

2013 it should do 'decent'. Depends on marketing.


EDIT: COD down alot - ouch. Poor Treyarch.
 

Lenardo

Banned
not too surprising about the wiiu number, it was sold out.

software wise, again launch of new system but the numbers should- overall- be decent.


and for those saying only ~270k for nsmbu...if the wiiu sells anywhere close to the wii, in 2 Years it still will be selling ~100k a month.

not worried about the wiiu number- for now check with me in 8 months
 

Miles X

Member
MS wants to stretch how well their console sold, I don't think cream sugar has an agenda.

I didn't say CS had an agender, just that all he stated was it was under 790k. You're the one assuming here.

If it was 780k that's 1.52m. MS would surely just use marketshare rather than X2.

Even if PS3 did 790k, it's still under 1.26m with Wii combined so 50%+ marketshare (for current gen, which is totally what they're gonna tout next year)
 

mujun

Member
Closer to 790k. When cream sugar drops these sorts of hints they're usually right on the money.

Pretty good sales for both MS and Sony this November.

Wii U is going to have a really difficult uphill battle.

How can two things be pretty good when one thing is almost double the other?

I never get this.
 

AniHawk

Member
bo2 probably didn't do as well as mw3, but i'll bet it beat out bo1. still a sign of this generation looking long in the tooth.
 

terrisus

Member
If thats the case then what the heck was Greenberg going on about nearly "2x". Maybe he's not good at math lol.

It's probably not the case, but the "nearly" could be read as "We almost outsold all of the other consoles by 2x. The only thing that stopped us from outselling all the other consoles by 2x was the PS3, which sold 1 million." That is, the "nearly" could refer to the amount of systems that it did that to, not necessarily how close it came on the system it missed on.

That said, I'm assuming it's not exactly like that.
 

Elios83

Member
i agree.. but if PS3 sold near 700K should be nearly enough to 1.26 (imho)

again.. without any concrete indication , it's just speculation

waiting for some Sony NPD Press release (if any) :D

I don't think we'll get a Sony press release :p
But if PS3 numbers were close to 700k, creamsugar would have used a different hardware combo like 3DS+Vita or 2*DS or simply would have stated <750k.
The 790k figure should be close enough to the actual number so Microsoft stretched the definition of 'nearly' just a bit :p
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Halo 4 and Black Ops II relative disappointments.
On BO2, I'm not sure what to say.

On the one hand, seven fewer days of sales. On the other, a game like that is so front-loaded. It would be really interesting to know precisely what the sales curve looked like.
 
If this is right, both are lower than MW3 last year:

MW3 (360): 5.2MM
MW3 (PS3): 3.2MM

AND lower than the original Black Ops.

2009:
MW2 (360): 4.2MM
MW2 (PS3): 1.87MM

2010:
BO1 (360): 4.9MM
BO1 (PS3): 3.1MM

2011:
MW3 (360): 5.2MM
MW3 (PS3): 3.2MM

2012:
BO2 (360) ~4.5MM
BO2 (PS3) ~2.9MM

We're seeing a definite contraction of the franchise.
 
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