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NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]

cgcg

Member
I knew hardware sales is going to be horrendous when they are announcing price cut a month right before E3. Yikes. The price cut is probably not going to do much since you can already get the system for cheaper than the price cut.
 
How long was the 360 supply constrained?

What does that have to do with anything? PS4 was not supply constrained in April (if it was, I would like a source and I'd gladly recant my statement). In fact, because it was supply constrained in previous months, sales should be higher in April because people would have waited for it to land on store shelves, no?
 

FiggyCal

Banned
If XB1 does outsell the OGX then the industry is fucked.

I just don't think it will outsell it by that much. i can't see Xbox One selling much more than 40 mil. If that :/

Maybe I was wrong about the state of the industry back in January's thread. I'm still hopeful PS4 can do 120m mil+ though.
 
I am honestly pretty new to all this NPD stuff, so I want to know what I am missing. Any response would be appreciated.

Based on the 360 numbers listed for past Aprils, wouldn't that mean that a ~215k month for the PS4 is pretty good? It seems to be above par for April sales of the 360. Also, I assume the PS4 has a higher ratio of WW to US sales. I don't see how the doom and gloom is warranted based on that.
 
Because of the shape of the curves, as stated. They were tremendously front loaded, with sharp declines in sales already, particularly on the Xbox One. Yes, so far, the Xbox One has sold more than the 360, but the way the sales have been shaped -- with strong sales in the first couple of months with a significant drop off afterwards -- is less promising for the future.

The software was much stronger for that first year of Xbox 360. If there's any fault for this its with the console manufacturers. 360s first year was unstoppable. Just excellent games coming out every month or two.

I wonder why we haven't seen that this gen? Publishers too scared to drop last gen ports, scared away by the mobile phone bogeyman?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't particularly care what Nintendo has said they will do. I have never been more confident that this is what they need to do.

Like it or not, the 3DS is a device that feels designed for a prior generation of mobile devices. The OS is slow and limited. The store is poorly designed. There's no real multitasking. It has few network features.

I feel that they need to leapfrog into the next gen of mobile devices to keep mindshare because their device is unfortunately not well suited to the software the casual audience likes to play...
 

B.O.O.M

Member
Because of the shape of the curves, as stated. They were tremendously front loaded, with sharp declines in sales already, particularly on the Xbox One. Yes, so far, the Xbox One has sold more than the 360, but the way the sales have been shaped -- with strong sales in the first couple of months with a significant drop off afterwards -- is less promising for the future.

I really don't think we should consider things like overall sale curve of the new gen consoles less than an year into the launch. Too many variables compared to previous gens. Different hardware release schedules on various markets, software release schedules, Japanese market decline which skews the overall result a bit (when it comes to the PS4 at least), even the tax situation in Japan and more should be taken into consideration. I think an annual comparison would be more appropriate here.
 

thefro

Member
Do you personally think that poignant software releases could change the shape of that curve, or do you think this is a trend that is likely to stick? Be interesting to gauge your thoughts on this, and why you think there's been more of a drop off this time around.

The issue is there's not the userbase on PS4/XB1 yet for a 3rd party big-budget game to be profitable without PS3/360 ports.
 

Riki

Member
I am honestly pretty new to all this NPD stuff, so I want to know what I am missing. Any response would be appreciated.

Based on the 360 numbers listed for past Aprils, wouldn't that mean that a ~215k month for the PS4 is pretty good? It seems to be above par for April sales of the 360. Also, I assume the PS4 has a higher ratio of WW to US sales. I don't see how the doom and gloom is warranted based on that.

It's not just about the PS4, which many people seem to be missing.
It's about console gaming as a whole. Which, right now, is looking dire.
If the PS4 was doing well (and it would need to be doing a bit better than it is now) and the WiiU and XBox One weren't doing nearly as bad as they are, there would be no cause for concern.
That isn't the case, though,
 
Seeing it at this E3 might be premature. But with the Wii U essentially dead and all the major 3DS franchise titles already out the door, they need to get hardware finalized and launch titles ready sooner rather than later.

I would have said that last year, but like you said I feel that's some good reasoning right there to go ahead and introduce it.
 

Opiate

Member
Do you personally think that poignant software releases could change the shape of that curve, or do you think this is a trend that is likely to stick? Be interesting to gauge your thoughts on this, and why you think there's been more of a drop off this time around.

It's definitely possible. Also, as already mentioned by Man-is-obsolete, it's possible the unusually front loaded sales of both the PS4/Xbone just mean the well of early adopters has run dry sooner than expected, but that this will "even out" as time goes on and more releases come out to pull in more casual buyers who won't buy until the games they want are released.

6 months of data gives us enough data to start speculating without feeling like wildly gesticulating idiots but not enough data to reach confident, definitive conclusions.
 

stonesak

Okay, if you really insist
What does that have to do with anything? PS4 was not supply constrained in April (if it was, I would like a source and I'd gladly recant my statement). In fact, because it was supply constrained in previous months, sales should be higher in April because people would have waited for it to land on store shelves, no?

Because if the 360 was supply constrained until its first April, it would give an inaccurate indication of demand for the 360 during it's first April.
 
I just don't think it will outsell it by that much. i can't see Xbox One selling much more than 40 mil. If that :/

Maybe I was wrong about the state of the industry back in January's thread. I'm still hopeful PS4 can do 120m mil+ though.

I think the PS4 will do better than the PS1, but it won't do 120 million. I'd say 100-105 million. The X1 will do 35-40 million. And the Wii U will do 15-20 million. That's just what I think.
 
Why would you compare Xbox 360 in April 2007 and PS4 in April 2014? That's Xbox 360's second April and PS4's first April.

I mentioned April 2007 to compare Wii, for which it was its first April. Wii was the market leader last gen.
Because I'm trying to compare US market leaders at similar price. Wii was its own thing at $250. I don't see how that is relevant. Price is a huge factor for consoles.

After google searching I didn't realize in April 2007 MS dropped the price of the consoles AND it had 3 SKUs.

Retailers will knock $50 off the Premium systems (bringing it to $350), $30 off the Elite (down to $450), and $20 off the Core (bringing it to $280). Expect it to take effect this Wednesday, the 8th

So it's not the best comparison. But i think it shows the ps4 is doing just fine at its price point with its rival competitor launching right with them
 
It will probably be below the Wii's trend line soon and it will be below the Wii's trend line the rest of this gen most likely.

The Wii dropped off hard and fast, whereas Playstations tend to have very good sustained sales over a long span. The PS3 did over 80 million, so it wouldn't take much for the PS4, given its trajectory, to outsell the Wii LTD.
 
Midrange got squeezed out of the market because of the pricing limitations in place last gen; it was too early to ask customers to pay more than $15 for a digital game, but the economics of retail made anything but $60 games worthless in physical media, and most midrange games simply couldn't sell copies at that price.

Yeah, I'm not sure why no one was allowed to sell $20-$40 retail console titles until well into the second half of the generation. May have hurt a lot of games that could probably have succeeded for their publisher but were instead DOA at full price.
 
For PS4 maybe, considering it's been getting the brunt of the marketing push.

Wouldn't most people just buy the current gen version of the game? I don't see a cross gen game pushing a lot of console sales for next gen systems when the game comes out the same time for every system.
 
PS4 is doing well overall, not great this month. The 6 month curve is troubling and not particularly great for the leading console of a generation where both other competitors are weak.

I'm of the opinion Sony sent ~280/280/380k to USA for Jan/Feb/Mar and sold out. Now if they sent ~380k for April that's a big drop off and I don't think they can hide that in their "demand is still outstripping supply" quote, if they went back to 280k and sent the extra to Euroland, maybe they can show the PS4 still outstripping production.

BntlMmKCYAEthhc.jpg:large


this "demand is outstripping supply" quote.
 

Riki

Member
The Wii dropped off hard and fast, whereas Playstations tend to have very good sustained sales over a long span. The PS3 did over 80 million, so it wouldn't take much for the PS4, given its trajectory, to outsell the Wii LTD.

I can't see a situation in which the PS4 outsells the Wii world wide.
Unless you expect Europe to pick up the slack for a trailing NA and Japan.
 
360:

April 2006 - 295K

April 2007 - 174K

April 2008 - 188K

April 2009 - 175K

April 2010 - 185K

April 2011 - 297K

April 2012 - 236K

April 2013 - 130K



Xbox One:

April 2014 - 115K


Xbox 360 has never managed such a low number for April.

This is maybe spinning for Xbox, but the fact that the One costs 25% more the 360 ever did is surely a cause for the low April (as compared to previous gen)
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah, I'm not sure why no one was allowed to sell $20-$40 retail console titles until well into the second half of the generation. May have hurt a lot of games that could probably have succeeded for their publisher but were instead DOA at full price.

What do you mean "was allowed"? I think publishers just knew that $20-40 titles didn't meet the expectations of the AAA crowd because they perceived something was wrong with it or whatever.
 

Bruno MB

Member
I was counting on David Gibson but NPD probably scolded him last month for revealing the hardware sales for every system :p
 

jedimike

Member
Yes, I definitely agree this is possible. It's possible the data on this generation is unique, and it's one of the primary reasons I'm referring to 6 months of data as useful but not conclusive. We'll have to wait and see. I'd say by 14-15 months, we'll have a strong idea how the generation will play out. People often make too much noise about a single data point (i.e. a single month), but can also be too conservative when extrapolating from 15 months of data, just as people can't believe that a sampling of a few thousand people can accurately predict the behavior of 300 million.

Every gen is unique... 360 sales took a dump when RROD issues surfaced and then jumped when Kinect was released. PS3 sales rebounded with a slew of hits (Uncharted, Lou).

Things could easily shift with combinations of price drops, unforeseen hits, or new hardware accessories (VR glasses, MS's projector thing)
 

Opiate

Member
The software was much stronger for that first year of Xbox 360. If there's any fault for this its with the console manufacturers. 360s first year was unstoppable. Just excellent games coming out every month or two.

I wonder why we haven't seen that this gen? Publishers too scared to drop last gen ports, scared away by the mobile phone bogeyman?

I suspect the primary problem is the cost of making games. As costs have risen, there are simply fewer and fewer games being made. Epic is seeing about 1/3 as many AAA games being made so far this gen (both released and in development) compared to last.
 
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