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[RPGamer92]

Just realized we haven't got a monthly "Playstation 4 has reached X million sales" statement from Sony yet. At this point are they waiting to announce 10 million units sold worldwide at E3?

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Yes, I definitely agree this is possible. It's possible the data on this generation is unique, and it's one of the primary reasons I'm referring to 6 months of data as useful but not conclusive. We'll have to wait and see. I'd say by 14-15 months, we'll have a strong idea how the generation will play out. People often make too much noise about a single data point (i.e. a single month), but can also be too conservative when extrapolating from 15 months of data, just as people can't believe that a sampling of a few thousand people can accurately predict the behavior of 300 million.

This is a much better analysis imo than looking at the sales curve of the first 6 months. I think that curve is only half of the picture.

 

[GoofsterStud]

But the Titanfall SKU was $450, wasn't it?

I guess the casual consumer will bite on a $399 price tag based on perception alone, but it really isn't much of a deal when compared to the TF bundle.

Don't forget the $399.98 Forza bundle.

 

[Mysterious]

Because if the 360 was supply constrained until its first April, it would give an inaccurate indication of demand for the 360 during it's first April.

I wasn't talking about Xbox 360; it wasn't the market leader last gen. I was talking about Wii.

Wii was supply constrained in April 2007, and sold ~360k.

 

[MrCookiepants]

Woo lawd. And this is Microsoft's strongest market. One of like two strong markets in the world for them, actually. What a disaster.

Gonna be slaughter next month with Watch Dogs fueled by a PS4 centric marketing campaign and people waiting for Kinect-less Bone.

 

[FourMyle]

I can't see a situation in which the PS4 outsells the Wii world wide.
Unless you expect Europe to pick up the slack for a trailing NA and Japan.

I'm fairly certain you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

Where's creamsugar at?

Dunno. He logged in 40 min ago.

 

[hawk2025]

Yeah, I'm not sure why no one was allowed to sell $20-$40 retail console titles until well into the second half of the generation. May have hurt a lot of games that could probably have succeeded for their publisher but were instead DOA at full price.

I don't think this is true.


It would also be a breach of anti-trust legislation, by the way.

 

[maabus1999]

Just realized we haven't got a monthly "Playstation 4 has reached X million sales" statement from Sony yet. At this point are they waiting to announce 10 million units sold worldwide at E3?

They aren't going to reach 10 million by E3.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I don't particularly care what Nintendo has said they will do. I have never been more confident that this is what they need to do.

Like it or not, the 3DS is a device that feels designed for a prior generation of mobile devices. The OS is slow and limited. The store is poorly designed. There's no real multitasking. It has few network features.

I feel that they need to leapfrog into the next gen of mobile devices to keep mindshare because their device is unfortunately not well suited to the software the casual audience likes to play...

Looking at their comments, though, I think even they realise how it affects what they want to do with things like Miiverse, NNIDs, engine sharing across system and so on. It's fortunate that the online things were hacked to work on the system, but I think even they know how the device is holding some of the plans back. I just don't have confidence they'll be ready - software or hardware-wise - to have a new system out by holiday next year.

 

[RiggyRob]

Not Quality of Life enough.

More like too third-party and hence Nintendo have to pay Apple a cut.

I don't agree rushing out a new handheld is what Nintendo need to do.

 

[Mass Effect]

Don't see even that. 3ds is barely 3 years old isn't it.

Yes, but sales are tanking fast. I think we'll end up seeing a reveal of their next handheld system before next year's E3.

 

[allan-bh]

Just realized we haven't got a monthly "Playstation 4 has reached X million sales" statement from Sony yet. At this point are they waiting to announce 10 million units sold worldwide at E3?

Probably don't hit 8 million yet.

 

[BananaSprinkles]

I don't see it, their press release only talks about XBO+X360 combined software

Oh, I saw that part. I also saw where it said "lead in software sales with the most cumulative units sold for any eighth generation home console platform life-to-date." which made me think the PS4 sold the most software in April.

 

[Syphon Filter]

Where's creamsugar at?

who is that?

 

[FiggyCal]

I suspect the primary problem is the cost of making games. As costs have risen, there are simply fewer and fewer games being made. Epic is seeing about 1/3 as many AAA games being made so far this gen (both released and in development) compared to last.

We're seeing less games being made so far because quantity of studios is being replaced with bigger game releases and larger dev teams. You said it yourself that costs have risen, obviously that would have an effect on the amount of games being made.

 

[Miles X]

Just realized we haven't got a monthly "Playstation 4 has reached X million sales" statement from Sony yet. At this point are they waiting to announce 10 million units sold worldwide at E3?

At this rate? No. 200k in US, 50k in Japan? No way is it doing 750k in Europe/elsewhere. I imagine production of 1m a month is going to slow down now at those sales rates.

 

[MikeE21286]

I'm still hoping it can....... maybe. If MK8 can't turn things around, I'll give up on it.

It's just too expensive for MK8 to turn it around

MK8 hits a mass-market appeal at a lower price point only.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Just realized we haven't got a monthly "Playstation 4 has reached X million sales" statement from Sony yet. At this point are they waiting to announce 10 million units sold worldwide at E3?

sales have probably slowed.

i doubt they've reached 8 mil yet.

 

[TheDarkKnight774]

They aren't going to reach 10 million by E3.

Yea. We're entering the sales dry spell. I'm guessing 8 or 8.5mil by E3

 

[Darksol]

Where's creamsugar at?

Thinking of clever titles for games that we have to decode.

 

[Opiate]

Every gen is unique... 360 sales took a dump when RROD issues surfaced and then jumped when Kinect was released. PS3 sales rebounded with a slew of hits (Uncharted, Lou).

Things could easily shift with combinations of price drops, unforeseen hits, or new hardware accessories (VR glasses, MS's projector thing)

Not really. Most generations follow pretty clear patterns. The last was the most uncommon, because the Wii took everyone by surprise then virtually none of the players made games for the leading console, but even then it started out with PS3/360 very close in sales but trailing the Wii, and with record breaking sales numbers out of the gate. The generation ended with... PS3/360 very close in sales but trailing the Wii, with record breaking sales for the generation in total.

Obviously, a few details can change. The PS3 was a few million behind the 360, now it's a few million ahead. The Wii was still way ahead, but died earlier than either the PS3 or 360. The Xbox One is getting outsold 2:1 right now by the PS4, maybe it will end up 3:1 or 1.5:1. Dramatic shifts are not common once we have 15+ months of data. 6 months (which we have now) is less conclusive but enough to start doing some rough sketches.

 

[artist]

edit: Wii U's numbers are its first year so Nov '12 - Apr '13.

 

[7DollarHagane]

What the fuck is this?

A scathing critique of drive by posters with general statements og game industry failure and no actual insight or connection to the figures being discussed.

Others have made insightful concerns about game industry sales but "WHOA WE SURE ARE DOOMED HEY GUYS" is obnoxious.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

What do you mean "was allowed"? I think publishers just knew that $20-40 titles didn't meet the expectations of the AAA crowd because they perceived something was wrong with it or whatever.

Was under the impression that X360 retail games were limited to two specific price points that required a certain threshold of sales/time sold at full price to sell at the lower one.

 

[shinra-bansho]

6 months of data gives us enough data to start speculating without feeling like wildly gesticulating idiots but not enough data to reach confident, definitive conclusions.

For reference this is the TTM PS/XBX HW. 200K inputted for PS4 for now, excludes PS3 for now.

I don't think hardware is really the problem.

Software is more the issue, and may simply be a function of the number of releases - for which there's no easy fix. A greater breakdown of software sales would be useful though; where are the declines coming from, where are the gains. Is the fundamental market still intact. Is the average revenue per title increasing, flat, decreasing (I suspect increasing). And so on.

 

[tuffy]

I would have said that last year, but like you said I feel that's some good reasoning right there to go ahead and introduce it.

I'm just skeptical they're far enough along with a new portable platform to have something to show yet, even though it's sorely needed. A 2015 E3 intro followed by a November 2015 launch seems more plausible.

 

[hawk2025]

Questions:


How quickly did the announced Titanfall bundle jump up on the Amazon charts?

Was it as soon as it was announced? Or closer to release?


How much should we read into the slow pre-order numbers for the Kinect-less Xbox One on Amazon (#123)?

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00KAI3KW2/?tag=neogaf0e-20

 

[DC1]

It's not just about the PS4, which many people seem to be missing.
It's about console gaming as a whole. Which, right now, is looking dire.
If the PS4 was doing well (and it would need to be doing a bit better than it is now) and the WiiU and XBox One weren't doing nearly as bad as they are, there would be no cause for concern.
That isn't the case, though,

So much praise and amazement at how well consoles sold last month.
So much doom and damnation today.

I feel like I'm at an old school playground painfully balanced on a broken see-saw in an island of concrete.

 

[Guymelef]

Nope.

PS4 is +/- 1% 200k.

So 198k or 202k.

 

[TomShoe]

Wouldn't most people just buy the current gen version of the game? I don't see a cross gen game pushing a lot of console sales for next gen systems when the game comes out the same time for every system.

In theory, they would. It just depends on how much the game would be considered as a "reason to jump into next-gen."

 

[vinnygambini]

Iwata-san says hi, everyone.

I hope you spoke about Nintendo's financial prospects and scolded him for the past three consecutive years of losses.

After that, a polite bow.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

So 198k or 202k.

That's the best number you'll get outside of Sony.

 

[crazyprac]

Wow @ no infamous SS in the top 10. Such a good game, wish they'd have marketed it better to give it some more legs.

best selling next gen game... lets take time to read past comments or the OP

It's only one month. You can't make a trend out of it. But I'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. I don't personally see the numbers for either the Xbox One or the PS4 being anything to write home about.

Do you work for Ars Technica based in New Zealand?

 

[Opiate]

For reference this is the TTM PS/XBX HW. 200K inputted for PS4 for now, excludes PS3 for now.

I don't think hardware is really the problem.

Software is more the issue, and may simply be a function of the number of releases - for which there's no easy fix. A greater breakdown of software sales would be useful though; where are the declines coming from, where are the gains. Is the fundamental market still intact. Is the average revenue per title increasing, flat, decreasing (I suspect increasing). And so on.

First, those 2012 sales were considered weak, so compared to a weak period, that isn't necessarily a good sign. And second, the reason it was considered weak is because of the sharp drop off of the Wii, which hasn't been replaced since. You'd want this generation's leading console to pick up the slack the Wii left, but it's not doing that at all. I think hardware is a problem, but not the only one, as you note.

 

[allan-bh]

So 198k or 202k.

Definitely not great

 

[maabus1999]

Not really. Most generations follow pretty clear patterns. The last was the most uncommon, because the Wii took everyone by surprise then virtually none of the players made games for the leading console, but even then it started out with PS3/360 very close in sales but trailing the Wii, and with record breaking sales numbers out of the gate. The generation ended with... PS3/360 very close in sales but trailing the Wii, with record breaking sales for the generation in total.

Obviously, a few details can change. The PS3 was a few million behind the 360, now it's a few million ahead. The Xbox One is getting outsold 2:1 right now by the PS4, maybe it will end up 3:1 or 1.5:1. Dramatic shifts are not common once we have 15+ months of data. 6 months (which we have now) is less conclusive but enough to start doing some rough sketches.

The only difference from previous generations is popular electronic sales can be heavily front loaded due to the world changing culturally via the heavy usage of the Internet. As I've said in the months prior, everyone lawding how great the generation started has to wait at least until 6 months and beyond before we start to see a trend shaping.

 

[TheDarkKnight774]

For reference this is the TTM PS/XBX HW. 200K inputted for PS4 for now, excludes PS3 for now.

I don't think hardware is really the problem.

Software is more the issue, and may simply be a function of the number of releases - for which there's no easy fix. A greater breakdown of software sales would be useful though; where are the declines coming from, where are the gains. Is the fundamental market still intact. Is the average revenue per title increasing, flat, decreasing (I suspect increasing). And so on.

Until we have accurate SW sales of digital SW I don't see how you can compare anything with last gen when the digital footprint was tiny. This gen well have less retail games but the number of digital download games, free to play, etc is booming and filling in the void of the Hollywood blockbuster games

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Definitely not great

Big drop off from last months.

 

[FiggyCal]

So much praise and amazement at how well consoles sold last month.
So much doom and damnation today.

I feel like at an old school playground painfully balanced on a broken see-saw in an island of concrete.

To be clear, the Xbox One's numbers are awful and people rightly pointed out that the fact that it could not outsell the PS4 with a price cut and one of the biggest games (in terms of marketing) of the year is not a good sign. I think people have to start being realistic with their expectations.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Definitely not great

In comparison to what, exactly?

To say something is not doing great there must be a better example or an expected goal, so what would that be?

Did anyone else do better in April 2014? Or another April? Or at their current retail price?

 

[Miles X]

Big drop off from last months.

Can you give us a combined WiiU + 3DS number pleeeeease?

 

[spatenfloot]

And a certain other site said xbox>ps4 lmao

That is why the numbers from that site are banned. They showed Xbone ahead by several thousand every week of the month.

 

[Game-Biz]

I'm still hoping it can....... maybe. If MK8 can't turn things around, I'll give up on it.

 

[serversurfer]

Just to give a better perspective

March (5 weeks) - 311,000 units sold -->62,200 units per week
April (4 weeks) - 115,000 units sold -->28,750 units per week

Dat Titanfall bump.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Did some crappy paint analysis.

These are my conclusions...

PS4- Over 200k for sure
WiiU- About 40k.

 

[The Llama]

So 198k or 202k.

Seems all the pent-up demand from the holiday shortages is over. Still, if ~200k is the floor, its not bad. IMO it looks like the PS4 will be roughly at the 360's level in the US.

 

[ScepticMatt]

awful numbers IMO.

 

[brandonh83]

I'm just skeptical they're far enough along with a new portable platform to have something to show yet, even though it's sorely needed. A 2015 E3 intro followed by a November 2015 launch seems more plausible.

Yeah, you could be right. I just want to see what direction they take it.

 

[nib95]

It's definitely possible. Also, as already mentioned by Man-is-obsolete, it's possible the unusually front loaded sales of both the PS4/Xbone just mean the well of early adopters has run dry sooner than expected, but that this will "even out" as time goes on and more releases come out to pull in more casual buyers who won't buy until the games they want are released.

6 months of data gives us enough data to start speculating without feeling like wildly gesticulating idiots but not enough data to reach confident, definitive conclusions.

Right. I personally think there haven't been any really compelling reasons for many new adopters to jump in yet, so whilst some of the hardcore did, much of the softcore probably won't opt in till there are more comprehensive releases and maybe even cheaper prices. I'm sure many are perfectly happy where they are on the previous gen consoles. Then there's the casuals who I don't think are likely to jump in for just a game or two, but will be more interested in some heavier price drops nearing impulse buy territory, which is probably some time away yet.

Be very interesting to see where things are with respect to that curve this time next year, especially after the release of one or two more established exclusives and new IP's.