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[Man-is-Obsolete]

So handhelds are deader and deader in the US, consoles are deader and deader in Japan. The state of Japanese development is going to be reaaaaaaally "interesting" in a couple of years.

This is the wild part to me. Throw on top of that devs that are developing for consoles will be slow to move away from PS3. It's like they never learn. If you want successful markets to make games for you have to make games early and often to make sure that a market is there. Look at the Vita. They avoided that and now all of sudden it is on an upswing in Japan, so now what? Start making games for it that won't release for another 2 years and in that time the market collapses or say "oh well, what could have been?"

 

[The Hermit]

yup gaming as we know it is almost dead

I hope Gaf survives, I am nothing without this place

 

[maxcriden]

I know about MK8 for Wii U and I guess SSB for 3DS. What are the next big tentpole releases for PS4 and XBO?

 

[Busaiku]

Sounds reasonable to me.

What was the 3DS at in Apr 13?
It doesn't seem to be doing too well, but hopefully it can at least stay above 100K.

jvm's pixel counting of this chart had it around 113k.
So in all likelihood, it's about flat YoY.

 

[John Harker]

Interesting perspective. To be honest, I was originally tossing the question out there to see if it prompted discussion. So many are down on consoles, and we all point to Wii U as obviously struggling and Xbox One beginning to languish, but why would it only be on Nintendo and Microsoft to improve the situation? Is the situation not also improved with an even stronger PS4? The industry wouldn't care how the pie is split, they just want a large pie, or am I wrong?

Perhaps it is as you say, the worry is not there yet for current generation adoption, as it has certainly been faster out of the gates for 2 of the entrants. But the pace has slowed, they're going to start losing ground, as based on what we can discern, PS4/Xbox One/Wii U did not combine to sell what Wii did by itself in that first April, let alone matching the total with PS3 and Xbox 360 chipped in.

Hypothetical scenario time.

I have a base of 12MM consoles I can sell on with the same development pipeline in only 6 months, with less competition than ever in the market for your dollar - what do I care how that 12mm breaks down?

Unless of course someone is hungry enough to give me money haha.

Anyway yea, if I we're a third party publisher I'm not scared till I see trends. People are freaking over one month and there weren't even any games out this month! Page me after October and let's have this chat for real.

(Also you can't include wii u in your analysis, it's a total non factor for my hypothetical pipeline and would require you to compare it to wii at this point last gen and that will not be replicated this gen, and I'm not set up to monetize against that audience anyway)

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

It's not just April's numbers, it's the general trends.

Wii U is dead and buried. It's got well over a year's track record at this point to give us reliable data.

Xbox One is trending absolutely terribly. It's not a dead system, but it's going to be a weaker second rather than a stronger one, based not just on sales this month but the curve of the sales over the first 6 months or so.

PS4 is doing well overall, not great this month. The 6 month curve is troubling and not particularly great for the leading console of a generation where both other competitors are weak.

That's what we're looking at here: not just this month's sales, but the shape of the sales curve so far in the 6 month (or 14 month history, for Wii U) of this young generation.

I get what you're saying but I also feel like a lot of people's sales expectations are unrealistic. If people honestly thought the industry's #s would just keep growing (with the software that comes out) gen-over-gen, they were mistaken. At some point every market starts to saturate its numbers and contract in size to stabilize at a given girth, and given the sort of games that come out these days it's probably due for the console market to do the same. The Big 3 will adjust, devs will adjust. People w/o jobs will find new ones. Life goes on.

I don't think the industry offers enough diversity in software to justify such massive gains every gen. And no I'm not talking about "casual" games. Where are the new genres and themes? Where are the simulators? Where are the quirky and adventurous mid-tier games. Lately I've been looking back at some of the older PC scene and it amazes me to see the sort of games that used to come out. Why don't we have more games where you can create a robot's A.I in a pseudo-mock up programming language? Or games where you can build cars like an actual engineer?

The market needs to diversify itself in ways it hasn't thought of in a long time or the contracting will be a very big and real thing, really soon.

Spoiler

If any of this gives Sega a chance to make another console, I'm 100% for it. Forget everything else.

 

[zeopower6]

I still think Sony can improve Vita situation considerably, by lowering the price a little, releasing VitaTV in the West wish PS Now and getting Minecraft on the system. I also hope they fix the memory card prices and multiple account issue.

Sony should have secured stronger partners for the Vita in Japan like Capcom and Level-5. They also wasted to much money on FPS for the Vita like CoD, Killzone and Borderlands 2, I think that Killzone would have suficed. God of War Ascension should have being a Vita game.

I'm still more than satisfied with my vita, but its frustrating to see how slow Sony is to try anything, they just don't seem to care. Vita is a great hardware, 2 years is to soon to give up.

The memory cards are probably one of the bigger hurdles tbh Even with the price drop or w/e.

 

[DangerMouse]

The graph is someones prediction ....

Was it? I didn't see it say predicted April compared to the other months, but If so sorry for jumping the gun based on Artist's graph.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

Still low, and SS 2nd month is also low.

Software low. Hardware low. We know May will be tough on X1. If May is tough on PS4, better be one heck of an E3 for all involved.

You cannot judge software without digital.

 

[Officerrob]

Still no PS4 numbers?

199k

 

[maabus1999]

Sony was smart to put a title like The Last of Us in June. The summer will be an epic sales drought for other systems but the Ps4 could continue along the same sales lines with a steady stream of indies and The Last of Us, along with the E3 hype. And then the promise of things like the Destiny Beta hitting in the summer.

No doubt someone is not gonna buy a console for a beta, but more and more people could begin seeing the future of software and the abundance of current choice as reason enough to go ahead and pick up the console while the others literally have nothing coming out for it.

The next 4-5 months is going to be interesting.

While TLOU may keep current owners happy, I don't see it moving the needle on the PS4 in a noticable way.

 

[blakep267]

So for x1 Titanfall we have

865k
300k - bundles

77k
55k bundles

Not bad.

 

[Boke1879]

May should see a sales surge for PS4 with MLB and WatchDogs hopefully. I really wouldn't expect constantly high numbers until around Sept. though. That's when the big guns start showing up.

 

[LordOcidax]

Fu.. mobile games. i dont like how this look. At all. :/

 

[Cubed]

I don't think Sony needs to give numbers right now. My bet is they will come out at E3 and announce 8,000,000+ PS4s sold.

 

[psn]

Are there PS4 numbers yet?

Gz to Titanfall.

 

[nib95]

Creamsugar, can you tell us the number for the PS4 InFamous bundle sales?

 

[allan-bh]

Creamsugar, can you tell us the number for the PS4 InFamous bundle sales?

US don't have this bundle.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I am serious.

The market leader cannot be a sub-200K system, particularly with the Xbox One headed to obscurity and the Wii U already long past it. If PS4 sales, having satiated demand, fall into the mid 100s in non-holiday months, publishers will feel a lot of pain.

The months of April-August are always going to be lower selling months. This isn't an issue at all. Historically, there's been very few instances of 360/PS3 exceeding 200K for April.

I was speaking from the perspective of publishers. They need an audience, Sony's income statement isn't EA's problem. The strong start helps mitigate it, but if that well is now dry, then publishers will run into problems as game sales do not ramp up as fast as last generation sales decline.

Also, PS4 is beyond struggling to gain traction in Japan (and Xbox One might as well not even launch there), so the west needs to compensate that much more, because otherwise, Japanese publishers might as well not even bother.

Edit: Let it be clear, this is a thought exercise. Just thinking out loud, disagree all day if everyone wishes.

The uptake on next-gen consoles has far exceeded any other generation. I don't think EA or other publishers are worried about adoption at all; in fact, given that many titles are still cross-generational, I suspect that publishers are quite surprised at how much quicker the core audience has transitioned to the new generation.

360/PS3 aren't really selling anywhere close to the PS4/XB1 versions of new cross generational games.

Plus, with the early lull in software, it's not really surprising to see sales fall within historical norms after demand has been satiated.

PS4 doesn't need a price drop, it just needs more content that furthers widespread adoption. Destiny is going to be pretty huge for them, because friends will want to play with eachother online, and people stuck in last-gen will be forced to upgrade.

 

[NeededSleep]

:,(

poor vita, its such a comfy awesome machine.

 

[Pain]

So yeah... under 200K for PS4. This is terrible for everyone.

Not its not. It's good Sony. Its only terrible for Microsoft and worst of all for Nintendo.
May is a slow month. We can't expect anything to sell like the holidays especially with a lack of true next-gen games out there.

 

[maabus1999]

You cannot judge software without digital.

In the console space, add 20%. Still poor. Console users still like physical for whatever reason, as the NPD survey showed. Plus just look at the digital only reaction MSFT had. It is growing but not a major component I believe in the market as a whole...yet.

 

[MormaPope]

And people wonder why devs and publishers make cross gen games. I get the feeling current gen console sale numbers are going to be lower in May, with a spike in June possibly, and then tapering off again until big titles this fall.

Depending on how next gen consoles continue to sell, cross gen support might not be going anywhere.

 

[Sectorseven]

I still think Sony can improve Vita situation considerably, by lowering the price a little, releasing VitaTV in the West wish PS Now and getting Minecraft on the system. I also hope they fix the memory card prices and multiple account issue.

If they were to even do that, at this point wouldn't it make sense just to release some type of vita - ps4 adapter?

 

[Hellsing321]

Nintendo is so doomed they've begun to sink everyone with them

Guess it's time to get a tablet to and accept our new gaming over lords ios/android

That or get way into MOBAs.

 

[creamsugar]

Creamsugar, can you tell us the number for the PS4 InFamous bundle sales?

Yes, 1,002.

 

[LordOcidax]

Not its not. It's good Sony. Its only terrible for Microsoft and worst of all for Nintendo.
May is a slow month. We can't expect anything to sell like the holidays especially with a lack of true next-gen games out there.

Is not good for anybody my friend.

 

[nib95]

US don't have this bundle.

I saw it on Amazon and thought it did exist?

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00J4X93FC/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Yes, 1,002.

Cheers. Not a lot then.

 

[maabus1999]

Creamsugar, can you tell us the number for the PS4 InFamous bundle sales?

I don't think there is an official US one. They don't count store created bundles (like Gamestop).

 

[astrogamer]

I kind of want to see how badly Disney Magical World performed

 

[Miles X]

Yes, 1,002.

How much is 3DS down yoy?

 

[MikahR]

Not its not. It's good Sony. Its only terrible for Microsoft and worst of all for Nintendo.
May is a slow month. We can't expect anything to sell like the holidays especially with a lack of true next-gen games out there.

Why is the PS4 underselling good for Sony, but the XO underselling bad for Microsoft in a known slow month?

Please explain.

 

[Wildarmsjecht]

Yes, 1,002.

Wait there was an infamous bundle? in the US?

Wha?

 

[eighty(one)]

Any idea of 2DS sales?

Going by Nintendo shipments, it makes the Vita seem like a success (they shipped only 90k 2DS last quarter).

I wonder if it was the idiotic name, the appearance or both. (I think) the price was right.

Anyway, 4DS should come out November 2015.

Spoiler

I think I collected your Mii during National StreetPass weekend ^_^

If Nintendo plans to keep dual screen for the 3DS successor, hopefully they scrap the numerical naming (2DS/3DS), as 4DS might add confusion to the average consumer.

Starting fresh (assuming it has decent IQ), calling it the HDS makes much more sense.

I'm hoping they have some amazing stuff in the pipeline for the 3DS handheld space (beside Pokemon remakes in Nov), then reveal a successor during 2015 and launch in 2016.

I hope Smash 3DS sells decently in NA, upon release, as that's the version I'm mostly interested in.

 

[nbthedude]

-"PS4 software combined with Xbox One software sales are up over 40 percent compared to sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360 through their first six months. Wii U software sales were up over last year by over 80 percent," said NPD analyst Liam Callahan.

Given that we have all the other numbers here, it seems like it would be just a bit of math to figure out what PS4 sold.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

You cannot judge software without digital.

This. Infamous Second Son has sold at least 20k on PSN in NA alone. That is based on the number of people that bought AND rated it on the store. so it is likely much higher than that obviously. Not saying it sold half a million on the store, but it probably added a cool 100k to the total since its release.

The game sold a million copies in 9 days, it is likely at around 1.5 million right now world wide, which puts it on pace to be the best selling in the franchise. Hardly anything to sneeze at.

 

[allan-bh]

Hey creamsugar, how about Titanfall 360 ?

 

[catmario]

Yes, 1,002.

Owwwwwwwwwch

 

[MilesTeg]

Xbox 360: 130K (-44.9%) [NPD: Top selling platform, so everything including handhelds is less.]
PS3 - 100,000

We're up a fair amount.

Considering successor platforms are out, the numbers are ugly imo.

Back in 2007 or 2008, the Wii alone crushed all of these hardware numbers combined, didn't it?

 

[Maninthemirror]

Can someone post a comparison of when a console price dropped more than 75$ in the previous generation what the jump was from the previous month? I want to estimate what the X1 jump will be IF the sales are flat in May.

 

[nib95]

Why is the PS4 underselling good for Sony, but the XO underselling bad for Microsoft in a known slow month?

Please explain.

115K vs 199K I presume. The extent to which either is underselling is vastly different.

 

[IAmRandom31]

And people wonder why devs and publishers make cross gen games. I get the feeling current gen console sale numbers are going to be lower in May, with a spike in June possibly, and then tapering off again until big titles this fall.

Depending on how next gen consoles continue to sell, cross gen support might not be going anywhere.

It is a slippery slope though. Without dedicated next gen software those devs are just adding reasons for consumers not to purchase the next hardware. Why buy a X1 for Titanfall when you can get it for 360? Why buy a PS4 for Metal Gear 5 when it is on PS3? So on and so forth.

2015 is going to be the real breakout year I think because of so much next gen only software but for now the Ps4 seems to be handling the transition the best. Sales are staying steady and the stream if titles is very steady even heading into the usual summer droughts.

 

[Pain]

Is not good for anybody my friend.

You make it sound like the industry is doomed. It's not. What PS4 and Xbox One appeal to is the core gamer and by extension the casual core gamers. I don't see this market going anywhere. What is lost though is the "Brain Age" and "Wii Fit" audience.

Nintendo is the one hurting here. Everyone else is just having transition troubles, especially devs with trying to hang on to the almost decade old 360/PS3. People want NEW hardware and NEW games. This is why we bought a next-gen console.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

That Infamous Bundle was just an Amazon thing right? Because I never saw that anywhere, and this is the first time I have heard about it.

 

[Cubed]

This. Infamous Second Son has sold at least 20k on PSN in NA alone. That is based on the number of people that bought AND rated it on the store. so it is likely much higher than that obviously. Not saying it sold half a million on the store, but it probably added a cool 100k to the total since its release.

The game sold a million copies in 9 days, it is likely at around 1.5 million right now world wide, which puts it on pace to be the best selling in the franchise. Hardly anything to sneeze at.

Yeah, I'm not worried about Second Son's performance. It's not a game that had a huge team or bloated budget. It's probably already turned a profit.

 

[MikahR]

115K vs 199K I presume. The extent to which either is underselling is vastly different.

The main point I wanted him to explain was why it's good for Sony that the PS4 is underselling.

 

[Sectorseven]

So based on these past few months, is there any way to determine if lack of backwards compatibility is having an effect on sales?

 

[Vashetti]

PS3 HW?

 

[Kusagari]

Wii U sales increased YoY once again! dat momentum!

Spoiler

lol

 

[IN&OUT]

So Xbone didn't even break 200k mark WW? WTF, now I see why MS backtracked on Kinect.

I can bet that PS4 is outselling Xbone 2.5:1 or even higher LTD. Gap is widening as we speak.