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[RexNovis]

55/45 split in favour of PS4.

The RPG crowd is bigger on PS4 but I think a lot of Xbone owners having played the series before will be buying this game in droves too.

The UK charts next week will definitely serve as a good barometer for how things should pan out but the PS4 will no doubt claim majority of sales.

Edit: Actually how well did The Witcher do on 360?
Must have released in the midst of shooter-mania?

Ahh good point I had forgotten 2 came out on 360. That said, a good portion of the core 360 userbase seems to have swapped to PS4 this gen so I'm not convinced it will have too much of an affect on the final split especially when the existing base on the XB1 seems to heavily favor sports and shooters over all else (see low sales of Sunset Overdrive). I'm hoping we can get some retailer insight to gauge platform demand and get a better idea of what to expect.

Funny, I never heard of it. 0_0

If you are into animation at all I highly recommend checking it out. The art and animation is top notch and its a really fun albeit campy movie. The GIF is way funnier if you know where it comes from. The griffon is hilarious.

 

[OléGunner]

Ahh good point I had forgotten 2 came out on 360. That said, a good portion of the core 360 userbase seems to have swapped to PS4 this gen so I'm not convinced it will have too much of an affect on the final split especially when the existing base on the XB1 seems to heavily favor sports and shooters over all else (see low sales of Sunset Overdrive). I'm hoping we can get some retailer insight to gauge platform demand and get a better idea of what to expect.

Yeah a lot of games if not a shooter or sports game don't do amazing sales figures on Xbox barring a few exceptions like AssCreed or GTA (still a shooter?). Coupled with the slightly larger install base on PS4 and its possible the split I predicted is even low balling it.

Dragon Age did better on PS4 overall too. I think that serves as a good measuring stick for TW3 as well.

 

[Javin98]

If you are into animation at all I highly recommend checking it out. The art and animation is top notch and its a really fun albeit campy movie. The GIF is way funnier if you know where it comes from. The griffon is hilarious.

Yeah, thanks, but no thanks. Not much of a movie fan. Anyway, I predict a split of 55/45 as well.

 

[DustyVonEric]

If you are into animation at all I highly recommend checking it out. The art and animation is top notch and its a really fun albeit campy movie. The GIF is way funnier if you know where it comes from. The griffon is hilarious.

On it. Thanks for the heads up

 

[Game Guru]

Yeah a lot of games if not a shooter or sports game don't do amazing sales figures on Xbox barring a few exceptions like AssCreed or GTA (still a shooter?). Coupled with the slightly larger install base on PS4 and its possible the split I predicted is even low balling it.

Dragon Age did better on PS4 overall too. I think that serves as a good measuring stick for TW3 as well.

If Dragon Age did better on PS4 then the Witcher should also do better on PS4. Bioware actually has a favorable history towards the Xbox line, given Bioware was exclusive on the original Xbox and continued to favor the 360 even when they went multiplatform. It's likely that the majority of Xbox One owners are mostly just interested in shooters and sports games.

 

[allan-bh]

SUPER METROID (#4) debuts with 58,000.

Poor Metroid...

 

[RexNovis]

Yeah a lot of games if not a shooter or sports game don't do amazing sales figures on Xbox barring a few exceptions like AssCreed or GTA (still a shooter?). Coupled with the slightly larger install base on PS4 and its possible the split I predicted is even low balling it.

Dragon Age did better on PS4 overall too. I think that serves as a good measuring stick for TW3 as well.

Ooh good call. Does anyone recall what the split fur Dragon Age was? I can't remember off the top of my head. But yeah I'd imagine the split would be fairly similar to DAI.

On it. Thanks for the heads up

Awesome! Hope you enjoy it. It's good silly fun. I'm somewhat of an animation nerd so it's always nice to indoctrinate introduce others to relatively unknown gems. （≧∇≦）
If you are so inclined, once you have the chance to watch it, shoot me a PM and let me know what you thought of it.

 

[Herman Cain]

but they do tell us the trend of purchases

No they don't, Amazon does not show anything on Software, and never has. You are ocne again using Amazon as an excuse to believe that there will be not only a gap, but also that the game will help" the PS4, which as rexnovis also noted, is something that is not likely t happen. Also there are games that chart in NPD, that either don't chart at all in Amazon, or in the lower parts of the top 10, and they are numbers 3-6 or so all the time. Why do you think Amazon has "software" trends? They don't. Esepcially the hourly charts you mentioned, which REALLY don't.

Also saying that "having little information we ned what we can get" doesn't work with Amazon because there's nothing to get. It's completely unreliable. Even hardwarewise now after the recent NPD. Amazon is not enough to estimate any sales gap or whether you think The Witcher will move PS4 hardware.

 

[Herman Cain]

Also the splits for the Witcher (in terms of explanations) doesn't make sense in this thread. Dragon Age had basically zero advertisements, so comparing to the deal with The Witcher 3 isn't very solid. Also Wrpgs were also best selling games on the 360 it wasn't just shooters and racers.

It's also amazing how people keep thinking a very significant portion of 360 users moved the the PS4, given 360 software and hardware sales in the last 6 months.

But at that end, I do believe that The Witcher 2 will be heavily PC biased, and PS4 and Xb1 won't really do too much in terms of sales, so it'll probably edge in the PS4's favor. Mostly because, NA wise (This is an NPD thread) I have seen little in the way of MS promoting the game.

 

[Elandyll]

No they don't, Amazon does not show anything on Software, and never has. You are ocne again using Amazon as an excuse to believe that there will be not only a gap, but also that the game will help" the PS4, which as rexnovis also noted, is something that is not likely t happen. Also there are games that chart in NPD, that either don't chart at all in Amazon, or in the lower parts of the top 10, and they are numbers 3-6 or so all the time. Why do you think Amazon has "software" trends? They don't. Esepcially the hourly charts you mentioned, which REALLY don't.

Also saying that "having little information we ned what we can get" doesn't work with Amazon because there's nothing to get. It's completely unreliable. Even hardwarewise now after the recent NPD. Amazon is not enough to estimate any sales gap or whether you think The Witcher will move PS4 hardware.

You're wrong, at the very least on Hardware (I also happen to disagree on Software to some extent).
You can't just dismiss 17 out of 18 correct "predictions" so easily, and particularly when this last Amazon ranking was actually probably spot on.

It showed PS4 ahead by only 1 Rank position (the closest they've ever been, alongside with February 2015 where XB1 had no secondary SKU to back it up), and with a second XB1 SKU right behind.
If anything, the Amazon monthly ranking of April should have warned us that XB1 could very well be ahead this month, if only marginally (which ended up being the case).

 

[donny2112]

Quest for Camelot. A fantastic and horribly underrated animated movie. One of my personal favorites.

Watched it again last year from Netflix. Also played through the GBC game based on the movie last year. Love the two-headed dragon. (^_^)

 

[Herman Cain]

You're wrong, at the very least on Hardware (I also happen to disagree on Software to some extent).
You can't just dismiss 17 out of 18 correct "predictions" so easily, and particularly when this last Amazon ranking was actually probably spot on.

It showed PS4 ahead by only 1 Rank position (the closest they've ever been, alongside with February 2015 where XB1 had no secondary SKU to back it up), and with a second XB1 SKU right behind.
If anything, the Amazon monthly ranking of April should have warned us that XB1 could very well be ahead this month, if only marginally (which ended up being the case).

This is pointless because we don't know how much the XB1 sold, and the PS4 regular SKU was still charting pretty high but did not show up at all this month (and before people say it's because it was discontinued being sold by Amazon that's not how the charts work.)

But we'll have to disagree then. I think Hardware may show a ver small amount but not much at all. also software, no again, things not charting have charted, things that were in the lower 80-100 range, have charted higher than games in the top 40, software is never right unless that software stays in the top 10 since release for an extended period of time (BB is an example).

But anyway agree to disagree.

 

[FATALITY]

Quest for Camelot. A fantastic and horribly underrated animated movie. One of my personal favorites.

the only good thing from this thread thanks

 

[RexNovis]

Also the splits for the Witcher (in terms of explanations) doesn't make sense in this thread. Dragon Age had basically zero advertisements, so comparing to the deal with The Witcher 3 isn't very solid. Also Wrpgs were also best selling games on the 360 it wasn't just shooters and racers.

So far this gen the only multiplat titles that have sold aggressively well on the XB1 in the NPD reports have been FPS and Sports games. Every other genre has seen a sizable split favoring the PS4. This is the current trend. Last gens trends were the trends of a console in a dominant market position and as such are less applicable this generation.

It's also amazing how people keep thinking a very significant portion of 360 users moved the the PS4, given 360 software and hardware sales in the last 6 months.

We know this for a fact thanks to Shuhei Yoshida's reference to surveys conducted by Sony attesting as much in a number of interviews about the unexpected runaway success of their console. Couple this with the readily available evidence here in GAF that has seen a vast majority of 360 gamers jump over to PS4 as their main console this gen and it's a pretty safe conclusion to make.

But at that end, I do believe that The Witcher 2 will be heavily PC biased, and PS4 and Xb1 won't really do too much in terms of sales, so it'll probably edge in the PS4's favor. Mostly because, NA wise (This is an NPD thread) I have seen little in the way of MS promoting the game.

You are of course entitled to your opinion but all indications are that it has sold exceedingly well on consoles this time around. While the split will undoubtedly favor PC more than most releases it will not be as drastic as you seem to think it will be. Both consoles will likely sell a good amount.

the only good thing from this thread thanks

Watched it again last year from Netflix. Also played through the GBC game based on the movie last year. Love the two-headed dragon. (^_^)

Wow I had totally forgotten about the GBC game. Man that was so long ago. I'm getting long in the tooth. I wonder if the movie is still on Netflix. It has been a while since I last saw it and my DVD copy is back home in the states. Might check next time I find myself with a bit of free time.

Regardless, It's nice to know others appreciate the movie in all it's superbly animated cheesy glory. It's so rare that people even know what it is when I mention it these days. Thank you both you've made my day. <3

 

[Herman Cain]

So far this gen the only multiplat titles that have sold aggressively well on the XB1 in the NPD reports have been FPS and Sports games. Every other genre has seen a sizable split favoring the PS4. This is the current trend. Last gens trends were the trends of a console in a dominant market position and as such are less applicable this generation.



We know this for a fact thanks to Shuhei Yoshida's reference to surveys conducted by Sony attesting as much in a number of interviews about the unexpected runaway success of their console. Couple this with the readily available evidence here in GAF that has seen a vast majority of 360 gamers jump over to PS4 as their main console this gen and it's a pretty safe conclusion to make.



You are of course entitled to your opinion but all indications are that it has sold exceedingly well on consoles this time around. While the split will undoubtedly favor PC more than most releases it will not be as drastic as you seem to think it will be. Both consoles will likely sell a good amount.





Wow I had totally forgotten about the GBC game. Man that was so long ago. I'm getting long in the tooth. I wonder if the movie is still on Netflix. It has been a while since I last saw it and my DVD copy is back home in the states. Might check next time I find myself with a bit of free time.

Regardless, It's nice to know others appreciate the movie in all it's superbly animated cheesy glory. It's so rare that people even know what it is when I mention it these days. Thank you both you've made my day. <3

1. I am not disagreeing with that, just that some people make it seems than even on the 360 this was the case but it was only recently with the current Xbox One userbase.

2. I agree some jumped from 360, but a very significant portion is odd considering how much the 360 is still moving in the strongest 360 territories, and also in territories were the 360 wasn't strongest. There are still people buying 360 games in Europe (sure mostly Minecraft and few others but they are still there.) I think we'll have a clear picture after this holiday.

3. Well there are 1.5 million pre-orders (correct me if I'm wrong) If even over 700k of that was consoles that would be a pretty huge surprise. I'm not saying that consoles will flop but I don't see them in my opinion, doing that well, at least during the first month of sales.

4. Quest for Camelot was slandered by crazy people, it's a good movie that never got recognition.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Anyone see this? Does it deserve its own topic?
http://gonintendo.com/stories/233832-npd-toys-to-life-viewed-as-positive-investments-keep-families-a

Some excerpts

According to Interactive Gaming Toys, the latest report from global information company, The NPD Group, 70 percent of parents in the U.S. are familiar with Interactive Gaming Toys (IGT), also known as Toys to Life, with 40 percent stating that they own at least one franchise, and 41 percent of those who own an IGT indicating they own more than one franchise.

In the past six months, parents estimate that they have spent an average of $131 on IGT games and characters from Skylanders, Disney Infinity, and Nintendo amiibo franchises for their primary player.

Interestingly, among Nintendo amiibo-playing households with children, 21 percent of parents state that no child is playing these games; only adults are playing. This contrasts greatly with the other franchises, with the other franchises having 10 percent or less of adult-only players in the households.

 

[Square2015]

I was waiting to get this at the top of the page, oh well...

APRIL Historical Sales Report:
Chart extended another quarter and tidied up a bit.
*click to enlarge*

Note: I'm going to write @ for LTD out of convenience.
When referencing the rank (#1) it's out of a SW chart of 50 best sellers.
MoM = month over month

APRIL 2015 - WiiU:

Mario Party 10 (#10) sells between 60k-70k @ 350k. WiiU goes another month with a much needed price drop...maybe at E3?


APRIL 2009 - Wii:

The Post-Easter slowdown. Wii sales almost fall in half from 600k to 340k MoM along with all next-gen systems. I have in my notes: "post-Easter slowdown worse this year due to the [Great] Recession". The US [and world] went into recession last year if memory serves, the stock market had crashed the previous fall...is this a factor in the slowing sales?

Wii Fit was No. 1 for the month reclaiming that spot having maintained it since last November (only ousted last month) to sell 471,000 this month and @ 7 million total, Wii Fit officially available one year now. 7m in a year, probably a record. Mario Kart (#3) sold 210,000 @ 5.9m total, Wii Play (#4) with 170,000 @ 10.6m total.

That's it for Wii in the top 20.


APRIL 2004 - Gamecube:

GC slows a bit for Spring and sells just under 100k this month (@7.3m), XB has 'dat surprise Easter price drop' from $179>149 and becomes the winner this month. XB sells 275,000 almost 100k more than PS2! The price drop ignites 2004 as XBOX's strongest selling year, and at times even giving PS2 a run for its money....This may have sealed the fate of the 'cube as the THIRD PLACE console, the gap between the GC and XB stands now at 1 million and will only grow from here on. Sorry Gahiggidy...

Pokémon Coliseum in its second month falls to #5 with 156,000 @ 500k. Harvest Moon falls to #33 @ 105k. Debuting at #39 is WarioWare Inc. with 35,000 and January's Sonic Heroes (#49) bottoms out the chart @ 365,000 LTD.

APRIL 1999 - Nintendo 64:

N64 sells 120,000 to PSX's 215,000 (@ 11.3m to 16.1m LTD, respectively). The comeback expected with Zelda 64 failed to narrow the gap between the two, we're still looking at Sony doubling N64 each month.

February's hit, Mario Party [1], remains the highest seller on the console (#4 for the month) @ 590,000 LTD. The Nintendo all-star scuffle: Super Smash Bros. (#5) debuts nicely selling 120,000, and that is its opening week! Expect SSB to be a hit if not a long seller, sales are already about a million in Japan! EA's Beetle Adventure Racing (#9) sells 60,000 @ 99,000.
Other notables: Acclaims' All-Star Baseball 2000 (#12) debuts with 56,000. Super Mario 64 (#20) breaks 4.5 million, Mario Kart 64 (#23) is nearing 3.5m. SM64 and MK64 are just staples in the charts staying within the top 30 throughout the life of the system.

APRIL 1994 - SUPER NES:

Likely in response to Sega's boom since the release of the Genesis 2 with Mortal Kombat last fall NoA begins bundling its hit titles to keep the SNES from continuing to get marginalized. Last month it was a Super Mario Kart "Super Set" this month a "control set" with Zelda, and next month we'll see a Star Fox super set. All in all the SNES sold 120,000 this month, NoA may have more effectively warded off the post-Easter crash than Sega did: The Genesis sales actually cut in half MoM selling 130,000 (to last month's 270,000). Congrats NIntendo? Or is Sega just taking a breather from all those TV ads?

Ken Griffey Jr. (#4) in its second month sold 75,000 @ 120,000. Sega's World Series Baseball (#2) also in its second month ousted it with 93,000 @ 125,000...can you get any closer?? Last month's "Boomshakalaka" NBA Jam slam dunk, approaches 1.3m LTD in just two month! With this and Mortal Kombat, Acclaim is ON FIRE.
SUPER METROID (#4) debuts with 58,000. This gem will sell over the slow spring until the hits start picking back up like Street Fighter (Super!) this summer, Oh and another FX chip game, Stunt Race. This and the upcoming Virtua Racing, arcade-like 3D gaming is on its way!

I just noticed that the SNES and N64 are selling lock-in step with each other and the GC just below them. Similar patterns.

MAR '15: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=163487902&postcount=3799
XMAS '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=152533238&postcount=2394
SEP '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=134923372&postcount=5568
AUG '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=130360538&postcount=2855

Bump

 

[Herman Cain]

Whoa, member already.

Bump

I remember those days, OoT artificially inflated hype was all over, and it didn't really move the N64 hardware like people were expecting. Lots of salt.

BTW what site did you get the info from?

 

[Ricky_R]

Whoa, member already.

Already? I was asking myself how it was taking so long.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

Whoa, member already.

How did you get there before me? I guess I need to spam some threads... -cheap shot-

 

[Square2015]

Whoa, member already
BTW what site did you get the info from?

Oh it's not from a website. You won't find this on a website. I'm Square2005 one of GAF's veteran Sales-Age Defense Enforcers since about 2002, well didn't become active until about '04 then re-emerged after the great transition (purge) to NEO-Gaf that year as Square2005. Terry Travis is not my name BTW. I've accumulated quite a bit of sales data for Japan and the USA over the past, geez sixteen years now.

...I cannot divulge data sources.

 

[EatMyFace]

55/45 split in favour of PS4.

The RPG crowd is bigger on PS4 but I think a lot of Xbone owners having played the series before will be buying this game in droves too.

The UK charts next week will definitely serve as a good barometer for how things should pan out but the PS4 will no doubt claim majority of sales.

Edit: Actually how well did The Witcher do on 360?
Must have released in the midst of shooter-mania?

You seem to forget that a lot of those 360 owners ending up upgrading to a PS4 not an XB1. So saying that a lot of Xbone owners have played the series before is just flat out wrong.

 

[Herman Cain]

Oh it's not from a website. You won't find this on a website. I'm Square2005 one of GAF's veteran Sales-Age Defense Enforcers since about 2002, well didn't become active until about '04 then re-emerged after the great transition (purge) to NEO-Gaf that year as Square2005. Terry Travis is not my name BTW. I've accumulated quite a bit of sales data for Japan and the USA over the past, geez sixteen years now.

...I cannot divulge data sources.

No I understand, just the issue with that is it's hard for credibility purposes if I show anyone on the outside.

 

[Obliterator]

I've got a feeling Witcher 3 is gonna be realllllllly big

 

[Herman Cain]

I feel like trends in multiple many stores across my area show that Xbox may win this month of May as well.

Last month Xbox One's were selling out, and PS4's were decent but you saw some piles of them. There was usually few Xbox's and plenty of Playstations.

So far this month I have seen stores sold out and waiting for orders, PS4's still selling decent, but not anywhere close.

I ignored the anecdotal evidence across multiple stores last month. So I'm wondering if I should pay attention to this one.

Then you have the white Halo Bundle which will come out across multiple stores nationwide soon, only 2 right now if not mistaken.

Hmm maybe I'll flip a coin.

edit: Looks like as of this moment the white Xbox One is 57 on Amazon, so I'm wondering what the limit is since they are taking orders without revealing a date and they also don't seem to be showing how much one can pre-order or how many they will have in stock.

 

[Welfare]

I feel like trends in multiple many stores across my area show that Xbox may win this month of May as well.

Last month Xbox One's were selling out, and PS4's were decent but you saw some piles of them. There was usually few Xbox's and plenty of Playstations.

So far this month I have seen stores sold out and waiting for orders, PS4's still selling decent, but not anywhere close.

I ignored the anecdotal evidence across multiple stores last month. So I'm wondering if I should pay attention to this one.

Then you have the white Halo Bundle which will come out across multiple stores nationwide soon, only 2 right now if not mistaken.

Hmm maybe I'll flip a coin.

Just remember that May is usually a decrease in sales from April.

 

[Herman Cain]

Just remember that May is usually a decrease in sales from April.

Right but I think it will be higher for both consoles than last may, especially Xbox which did beyond terrible last may at 75k.

 

[Welfare]

Right but I think it will be higher for both consoles than last may, especially Xbox which did beyond terrible last may at 75k.

77k

Also remember that last May had Watch Dogs. There is no equivalent this year and with it the PS4 did 197k. Only consoles that'll be up YOY will be the Xbox One and probably the 3DS.

 

[RedAssedApe]

Also the splits for the Witcher (in terms of explanations) doesn't make sense in this thread. Dragon Age had basically zero advertisements, so comparing to the deal with The Witcher 3 isn't very solid. Also Wrpgs were also best selling games on the 360 it wasn't just shooters and racers.

It's also amazing how people keep thinking a very significant portion of 360 users moved the the PS4, given 360 software and hardware sales in the last 6 months.

But at that end, I do believe that The Witcher 2 will be heavily PC biased, and PS4 and Xb1 won't really do too much in terms of sales, so it'll probably edge in the PS4's favor. Mostly because, NA wise (This is an NPD thread) I have seen little in the way of MS promoting the game.

1.5 million pre-orders no? Betting console versions account for a large portion of that.

 

[Javin98]

No they don't, Amazon does not show anything on Software, and never has. You are ocne again using Amazon as an excuse to believe that there will be not only a gap, but also that the game will help" the PS4, which as rexnovis also noted, is something that is not likely t happen. Also there are games that chart in NPD, that either don't chart at all in Amazon, or in the lower parts of the top 10, and they are numbers 3-6 or so all the time. Why do you think Amazon has "software" trends? They don't. Esepcially the hourly charts you mentioned, which REALLY don't.

Also saying that "having little information we ned what we can get" doesn't work with Amazon because there's nothing to get. It's completely unreliable. Even hardwarewise now after the recent NPD. Amazon is not enough to estimate any sales gap or whether you think The Witcher will move PS4 hardware.

You keep misunderstanding me. I'm not using the hourly charts to estimate the sales of software. But from the hourly charts, the PS4 version of The Witcher 3 has been selling better than the XB1 version. Does it tell us how much the difference is? No. Does it tell us which version buyers are choosing? Yes. That's all I meant. Need more proof? Abdiel, a fellow GAFfer who works at retail, says that the PS4 version is selling better as well. Sure, it doesn't represent US as a whole, but we get a rough idea. Regarding boosting the PS4 sales, that's my own prediction. Nothing to do with Amazon unless the XB1 version was ahead. And to be fair, Amazon was still right last month. Despite a single PS4 SKU being a spot ahead, two XB1 SKU's were not too far behind.

I'll just come out clean and say this. Some of the recent junior members are getting really annoying. It's like you guys think you can challenge everyone else.

 

[Welfare]

I'll just come out clean and say this. Some of the recent junior members are getting really annoying. It's like you guys think you can challenge everyone else.

I don't see any junior members

 

[Refreshment.01]

3ds decreased or increased in relation to april 2014?

 

[Javin98]

I don't see any junior members

You know who I mean Although one of them was lucky enough to get to full membership.

 

[gioGAF]

I feel like trends in multiple many stores across my area show that Xbox may win this month of May as well.

Last month Xbox One's were selling out, and PS4's were decent but you saw some piles of them. There was usually few Xbox's and plenty of Playstations.

So far this month I have seen stores sold out and waiting for orders, PS4's still selling decent, but not anywhere close.

Do you work in retail or do you just go around your local electronics stores counting Xbone and PS4 boxes? Serious question.

 

[cakely]

I don't see any junior members

BAM!

 

[theprodigy]

3ds decreased or increased in relation to april 2014?

increased, but barely

 

[Refreshment.01]

increased, but barely

Thank you.

So far the New model is serving it purpose it seems. So far increasing sales in Ameica and diminishing the size of the decline in japan. Wonder what the effect is like in europe.

 

[Herman Cain]

You keep misunderstanding me..

No I'm not misunderstanding you, and you're backpedalling+shallow snide comment at the bottom of your last post is unnecessary and unwarranted.

See below:

I saw your explanation, but I really think The Witcher 3 might give the PS4 a win in May.

Which doesn't make sense. You also admit later that you gained this opinion also based on findings on Amazon.

Also, an interesting thing to note is that based on Amazon

Boom. Regardless of amount you are using it.

but could potentially tell the gap between the two consoles. When have you ever seen me using the hourly charts to obtain numbers. That's beyond foolish that I doubt even Patcher would do. I only use it to tell the trend of sales, not numbers. You're welcome to search in my post history.

1. No you can't. Not in software, it has never worked that way, and has done the opposite.

2. Hourly doesn't show trends, it's inaccurate.

And what I meant in my reply to RexNovis was that The Witcher 3 may push several PS4's but it is definitely not a system seller.

Based on what? It selling more? Hi Mortal Kombat X?

But when we have so little info to make predictions every month, every little bit counts. Of course I don't just predict the gap from the monthly charts alone. Which month of the year is also taken into consideration (gap is usually smaller in slow months). To clarify, I was simply predicting that The Witcher 3 might give the PS4 a win because it has been selling better on PS4 for weeks now.

1. No Amazon is inaccurate, there's no actual info to gain, the closest thing to accuracy is strict hardware difference and even that is questionable as people are debating distances on Amazon now after last month changing the game.

2. Just like Mortal K- ohhhh.

Now, the hourly charts are very inaccurate, but they do tell us the trend of purchases.

No they don't. There are games that have never charted that were selling highly, there's games that chart that were not even charting very well at all or not at all. What trends does it show us? Occasionally a very popular game hovering over the top 5 for weeks without moving could potentially mean it sold well, but we have had this and opposites have a different outcome.


Now I'd let this roll and move on, as I tried to do, but for some reason you have this need to throw in indirect side comments/insults in disguise in your posts. You also seem to think you're better, which is why you made that Junior comment, without actually looking at who you were talking to.

All I'm saying is that Amazon is not a good indicator, and I don't agree with your opinion, mistakes happen,let's move on.

 

[Raist]

Edit: Actually how well did The Witcher do on 360?
Must have released in the midst of shooter-mania?

In the UK? Between 15k and 34k first week (#1 in individual charts).
Dropped to #4 on its second week (-73%).

 

[Herman Cain]

Do you work in retail or do you just go around your local electronics stores counting Xbone and PS4 boxes? Serious question.

Not really walking around local (well it's a bit further than local then just calling some friends or old associates I used to work with for Info, I used to be in retail so that helps a bit.. Usually do it for other things, just a little side thing.

Of course not being in retail and usually calling for other trends related to my work, I usualy ignore video games, however the information I got last month was unusual shouldn't have ignored it, but it is what based my prediction that both consoles would sell over 200k, I think I gave to much credit there lol. Welfare I'm looking at you.

 

[Javin98]

No I'm not misunderstanding you, and you're backpedalling+shallow snide comment at the bottom of your last post is unnecessary and unwarranted.

See below:



Which doesn't make sense. You also admit later that you gained this opinion also based on findings on Amazon.



Boom. Regardless of amount you are using it.



1. No you can't. Not in software, it has never worked that way, and has done the opposite.

2. Hourly doesn't show trends, it's inaccurate.



Based on what? It selling more? Hi Mortal Kombat X?

But when we have so little info to make predictions every month, every little bit counts. Of course I don't just predict the gap from the monthly charts alone. Which month of the year is also taken into consideration (gap is usually smaller in slow months). To clarify, I was simply predicting that The Witcher 3 might give the PS4 a win because it has been selling better on PS4 for weeks now.

1. No Amazon is inaccurate, there's no actual info to gain, the closest thing to accuracy is strict hardware difference and even that is questionable as people are debating distances on Amazon now after last month changing the game.

2. Just like Mortal K- ohhhh.



No they don't. There are games that have never charted that were selling highly, there's games that chart that were not even charting very well at all or not at all. What trends does it show us? Occasionally a very popular game hovering over the top 5 for weeks without moving could potentially mean it sold well, but we have had this and opposites have a different outcome.


Now I'd let this roll and move on, as I tried to do, but for some reason you have this need to throw in indirect side comments/insults in disguise in your posts. You also seem to think you're better, which is why you made that Junior comment, without actually looking at who you were talking to.

All I'm saying is that Amazon is not a good indicator, and I don't agree with your opinion, mistakes happen,let's move on.

Sure, bring in Mortal Kombat X which was released last month when the XB1 had a trade in deal. That's really smart. But whatever, I'm done debating with you.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Pro-tip, PS4 will lead in W3 sales.

 

[Chobel]

Meh, people may argue with me, but as high as 30% of sales on Day 1 are digital, falling to the 20%+ range by end of week 1, then falling over time to 10-15%, usually because of pricing discrepancies between physical and digital (digital pricing tends to be more expensive as titles age, either due to intentional strategy or, more likely, indifference) as well as catalog titles being very difficult to discover digitally outside of flash sales and the like.

These day 1/week 1 digital as % of total percentages are going up with every release, but the longer term percentages are not... at least not yet.

For the platform splits... the Xone has a slightly higher digital share % than PS4 on the titles I've seen. The Xone also has a higher tie ratio. This could be due to lots of things. The smaller audience on Xone could be more traditional "Core" audience (therefore, higher tie ratios & likelihood to buy digital) while the PS4 has gone bigger and more "Mass" (and lower tie ratios, lower likelihood to buy digital). Or PS+ is driving down PS4 sw purchase tie ratios, while GWG is not. No real answers or research on that yet, so just theories.

Is this WW or just US?

 

[Herman Cain]

Sure, bring in Mortal Kombat X which was released last month when the XB1 had a trade in deal. That's really smart. But whatever, I'm done debating with you.

Usually people leave when the proof of what they say is right there. So i understand how you want to not address anything.

I mean I can throw another example of a game if you want since you like to keep backpedaling just say the word, but personally i don't like the way you post (dishonest and insulting) so i'll probably just not bother continuing this subject with you.

 

[Abdiel]

Pro-tip, PS4 will lead in W3 sales.

That's what I've seen, at least. It's not been to the same slant as Japanese titles, but ps4 still the bigger seller from what I've tracked in stores.

Hardware wise, I'm hesitant to make an assumption based on how close things were last month, and it didn't match what I saw, so it seems likely that it was influenced by one of the bigger retailers, gamestop in particular. But ps4 has sold better so far for us at least.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Is this WW or just US?

US

Hardware wise, I'm hesitant to make an assumption based on how close things were last month.

I'm with you. It's reasonable to assume there could be some relationship between top title sales and hardware, but I don't think its as direct as some posters are assuming.

 

[Nirolak]

Hell yeah there is. And every time a Dying Light, a Bloodborne, or even a Mortal Kombat sets some type of sales record in a particular month or for a particular genre, that message is delivered. As it is when a game like Hardline comes out and struggles... while these other "niche" titles sell incredibly well, the message is reinforced. Some (maybe one) publisher "gets" that right now. I think others are learning with every sales announcement or NPD release.

Make some gawdammed games, publishers. What the hell are you people doing??



Dude, you're better at what you do than 99% of the people doing it professionally. You're an asset to the community (hell, the industry) so right back at you.

Did Hardline actually struggle?

They noted they were only expecting 1/3rd the sales of a mainline game and then seemed notably happy with it.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Hardware wise, I'm hesitant to make an assumption based on how close things were last month, and it didn't match what I saw, so it seems likely that it was influenced by one of the bigger retailers, gamestop in particular. But ps4 has sold better so far for us at least.

I'm on the same boat. I was a bit surprised to see the XB1 win last month because I assumed hardware buying habits were similar across Best Buy, Target, Walmart, Gamestop, and Amazon. Apparently, I was wrong.

 

[On Demand]

I'm on the same boat. I was a bit surprised to see the XB1 win last month because I assumed hardware buying habits were similar across Best Buy, Target, Walmart, Gamestop, and Amazon. Apparently, I was wrong.

I think the GS trade in deal gave XB1 the win. That's also why it was such a small amount.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Did Hardline actually struggle?

They noted they were only expecting 1/3rd the sales of a mainline game and then seemed notably happy with it.

Rex called me out on that language too. You're right... it did meet stated expectations and for all we know it could end up being highly profitable.

I was using the term "struggle" more in terms of what similar titles in the genre have done historically. Benchmark FPS releases in that quality score range have been bigger sellers in the past. Maybe its a reflection of a new market for FPS games, maybe there's more impact from digital on this title than others. Tough to say.

But why would a company have expectations that low when similar titles have been so much bigger? The question then becomes why that assumption was settled on; whether that change in expectation was market driven or driven by something they saw in the title itself is a good question.

My suspicion would be that they realized it wasn't going to be a very big shift from the previous games and that the differences would more so be "different" than "different and better", and modeled it off of similar "filler games".

It was a spring release. I think it did about the same as Bad Company 2. Not really sure what else to compare it to since most major FPS releases are in the Fall/Holiday season.

Both great points. Thanks. This is why I usually stick to actual data points rather than blabbing my more subjective opinions. So easy to be misguided on those!