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[Bizzyb]

hmm so nintendo releasing games is the proof that they are shutting the system down. i believe normally you would expect the opposite.

what can nintendo release in the future ?

we dont know. they have not shown anything. wii relax and pikmin 3 are kinda confirmed but anything beyond that is not clear.

They are clearing the inventory so to speak. putting as much product out on the market as can to soak up as many sales as possible before the next system comes along.

Pikmin 3 I believe will be on the Wii 2. Miyamoto has been quoted on record stating that Pikmin is the kind of game that he believes will benefit from HD visuals. Based on the fact we have seen not, 1, not 2, but THREE E3s come and go with ZERO mention of Pikmin, I think it's safe to assume Pikmin 3 will be announced next E3 as a Wii 2 title.

 

[Vinci]

Pikmin 3 is probably a 2011 title, and if Wii Relax wasn't shelved (it was pretty damn absent from E3), it should be a relatively big title. Unless they start bringing stuff over like Reginliev, Xenoblade, and The Last Story as well, 2011 is going to be extremely barren and 2012 is going to be even worse.

Still think there's a possibility that they've shifted [Wii] Relax towards their next console, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Well, that's in a different space altogether. It's not really a living room device. If anything, the 3DS is going to be competing with the new iPod Touch.

If it's a consumer product, it's a competitor for consumer attention. So no, the 3DS isn't in a different space entirely.

 

[FoneBone]

Pikmin 3 I believe will be on the Wii 2. Miyamoto has been quoted on record stating that Pikmin is the kind of game that he believes will benefit from HD visuals. Based on the fact we have seen not, 1, not 2, but THREE E3s come and go with ZERO mention of Pikmin, I think it's safe to assume Pikmin 3 will be announced next E3 as a Wii 2 title.

Miyamoto specifically said at E3 that it would be a Wii game. I guess you can qualify that with "but which Wii?", but it seems like a stretch.

 

[AniHawk]

Still think there's a possibility that they've shifted [Wii] Relax towards their next console, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Actually, that's a good point. They might not be into prolonging the Wii's life with peripherals when they can save it for another generation.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

They are clearing the inventory so to speak. putting as much product out on the market as can to soak up as many sales as possible before the next system comes along.

Pikmin 3 I believe will be on the Wii 2. Miyamoto has been quoted on record stating that Pikmin is the kind of game that he believes will benefit from HD visuals. Based on the fact we have seen not, 1, not 2, but THREE E3s come and go with ZERO mention of Pikmin, I think it's safe to assume Pikmin 3 will be announced next E3 as a Wii 2 title.

Yeah, after the quote from him about Pikmin being the kind of title that would suit HD (in a discussion about different game types requiring/not requiring HD, IIRC) I think we've got a fairly big indication that that is what they're planning.

A game like Pikmin would be - just as natural history programming on TV is - perfectly suited to really showing a new HD system, so I can understand why they would lean in that direction.

 

[farnham]

They are clearing the inventory so to speak. putting as much product out on the market as can to soak up as many sales as possible before the next system comes along.

this makes no sense whatsoever

why would they clear the inventory in regard of kirby, dk and metroid and move over to wii HD in regard of Pikmin 3, zelda and wii relax ? also how will they be able to develop the launch + launch window lineup of 3ds AND Wii 2.

Pikmin 3 I believe will be on the Wii 2. Miyamoto has been quoted on record stating that Pikmin is the kind of game that he believes will benefit from HD visuals. Based on the fact we have seen not, 1, not 2, but THREE E3s come and go with ZERO mention of Pikmin, I think it's safe to assume Pikmin 3 will be announced next E3 as a Wii 2 title.

he mentioned Pikmin 3 is going to be a Wii title this E3 though

 

[Bizzyb]

No, SE can't. Educate yourself before you run off your mouth. SE gets to give their input. They can make suggestions. They can ask nicely. But ultimately? Yuji Horii makes the decision, and Yuji Horii cares far more about having the bigger userbase than going after the new hotness.

And you are underestimating Dragon Quest's influence in Japan. There is literally nothing in the entire world that compares to when a new DQ releases here.

Look here buddy, SE can do whatever they hell they want. They can keep a game in development for a FULL generation if they so choose (KH3). Yuji Horji may have a great deal of input but ultimately SE and its investors will have the final say. They Pay the bills, not Horji. You saw how Tecmo did Itagaki.

 

[FoneBone]

Pikmin 3 is probably a 2011 title, and if Wii Relax wasn't shelved (it was pretty damn absent from E3), it should be a relatively big title. Unless they start bringing stuff over like Reginliev, Xenoblade, and The Last Story as well, 2011 is going to be extremely barren and 2012 is going to be even worse. 2006 for the Gamecube was Odama, Chibi-Robo, Baten Kaitos Origins, and Twilight Princess (with 3 other games shown off at E3 and eventually moved to the next system). Somehow, I don't see something like that happening this time.

How is the 2011/2012 situation not "something like that"?

 

[Foil]

I really hope they save Pikmin for the next console.

they could just sell the wii without WSR as a 150 sku.

Or they could sell the package with WSR for $150. Why would they take WSR out or bother with another sku? It shows off motion plus to the new buyer and the cost of them keeping that in is next to nothing outside of potential game sales they could have got.

 

[Bizzyb]

this makes no sense whatsoever

why would they clear the inventory in regard of kirby, dk and metroid and move over to wii HD in regard of Pikmin 3, zelda and wii relax ? also how will they be able to develop the launch + launch window lineup of 3ds AND Wii 2.


he mentioned Pikmin 3 is going to be a Wii title this E3 though

I'm not sure what you're asking..??

3DS launch is in 2010

Wii2 launch is in 2011, how will either be a problem for each other?? They did the same with DS and Wii.

Oh and Pikmin WILL be a "Wii" title. A Wii 2 title

 

[farnham]

Or they could sell the package with WSR for $150. Why would they take WSR out or bother with another sku? It shows off motion plus to the new buyer and the cost of them keeping that in is next to nothing outside of potential game sales they could have got.

A real pricedrop would be better . sure

 

[AniHawk]

How is the 2011/2012 situation not "something like that"?

The GC managed to get 4 games published by Nintendo in 2006. I'm just guessing there will be considerably less for the Wii in 2012.

BizzyB: A Wii 2 in 2011 doesn't make sense. There's just not enough teams available. The 3DS is soaking up all the work from the important developers not named EAD Tokyo. The only way I can see a Wii 2 in 2011 is if Wii Relax and Pikmin, or whatever those teams were working on, are doing Wii 2 launch games. If they have something, and maybe Nd Cube and SPD 1 have something (although I think SPD1 might be doing Wario Ware for the 3DS), they might be able to make a really shitty system launch.

 

[SapientWolf]

Still think there's a possibility that they've shifted [Wii] Relax towards their next console, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.



If it's a consumer product, it's a competitor for consumer attention. So no, the 3DS isn't in a different space entirely.

I meant that it is feasible that people looking to purchase a successor to the 3DS would still be interested in an entertainment device for the living room. It's not as direct a competitor to Move and Kinect as the Wii is. The 3DS offers a very different type of gaming experience.

 

[Neo C.]

I disagree. With the catalog of games that not only Nintendo, but every single major 3rd party out there has announced for it, the support for this thing is beyond anything I've ever seen, and that includes the PS2. When they just kept announcing more and more and more titles for the thing at E3 I nearly died, it's like everyone got together and wanted to make a super system, and this is what came of it. Besides even if the 3D isn't something you like, you can just turn it off. The major draw here for me isn't necessarily 3D, although that's mind-blowingly amazing if it looks as good as everyone said it did at E3 (or better even), but the software catalog.

That's my viewpoint too. The 3D effect is mostly a gimmick and only improves gameplay to a certain point (though it potentially improves IQ). I think in less than two years we'll mostly talk about the games themselves than the 3D effects in the games.

 

[cgcg]

I think it's about time you stopped making predictions about GT5.

Actually let him. So far everything happened the opposite of what he predicted. "OMG no way GT5's going to have more than one car on a track with that kinda detail." :lol :lol :lol

So basically this is a confirmation that GT5 will sell a lot of systems.

Confirmed!

 

[Vinci]

Look here buddy, SE can do whatever they hell they want. They can keep a game in development for a FULL generation if they so choose (KH3). Yuji Horji may have a great deal of input but ultimately SE and its investors will have the final say. They Pay the bills, not Horji. You saw how Tecmo did Itagaki.

No offense to his fans, but comparing Itagaki to Horii clearly shows you've no idea what you're talking about. Segata was being polite: Educate yourself on the distinction.

I meant that it is feasible that people looking to purchase a successor to the 3DS would still be interested in an entertainment device for the living room.

It really depends on who they're buying the product for. Kinect, at the least, seems very much directed software-wise towards young folks and families. Odds are, most parents aren't going to choose to buy their kid both a Kinect (w/ 360) and a 3DS. A choice will have to be made. Anytime that choice arises, competition exists. It's not 100% direct, I agree - but hell, Iwata considers magazines competition to his products. :lol

It's not as direct a competitor to Move and Kinect as the Wii is. The 3DS offers a very different type of gaming experience.

It also offers a very different type of gaming experience to the iPod Touch, but that didn't remove any merit from your earlier comparison.

 

[Bizzyb]

The GC managed to get 4 games published by Nintendo in 2006. I'm just guessing there will be considerably less for the Wii in 2012.

BizzyB: A Wii 2 in 2011 doesn't make sense. There's just not enough teams available. The 3DS is soaking up all the work from the important developers not named EAD Tokyo.

I think based on how this Holiday season goes It will be a must that Wii 2 launch in 2011. Nintendo knows that they can only do so much more with Wii. Motion Plus in Zelda is probably the pinnacle in what they can achieve with this systems hardware. 3DS games won't take THAT much time to make and I'm sure Wii 2 has been in development for at least 3 or 4 years now with titles like Pikmin already having been in production.

Nintendo got this.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Look here buddy, SE can do whatever they hell they want. They can keep a game in development for a FULL generation if they so choose (KH3). Yuji Horji may have a great deal of input but ultimately SE and its investors will have the final say. They Pay the bills, not Horji. You saw how Tecmo did Itagaki.

I think you need to check who owns the IP.

 

[Bizzyb]

No offense to his fans, but comparing Itagaki to Horii clearly shows you've no idea what you're talking about. Segata was being polite: Educate yourself on the distinction.

I know Horji is more of a Hideo or a Miyamoto, the point is, the suits have the final words, not the devs. Except maybe in Miyamotos case where he is like untouchable royalty there

I think you need to check who owns the IP.

doesn't matter, they pay the bills. If he doesn't like it, maybe he can have Namco-Bandai produce his game, or hell even SEGA.

 

[FoneBone]

Eh... from a business standpoint, I think they should have the Wii 2 out by the end of 2011, but I don't think the software is going to be ready. 1st half of 2012 seems more likely.

BizzyB: A Wii 2 in 2011 doesn't make sense. There's just not enough teams available. The 3DS is soaking up all the work from the important developers not named EAD Tokyo. The only way I can see a Wii 2 in 2011 is if Wii Relax and Pikmin, or whatever those teams were working on, are doing Wii 2 launch games. If they have something, and maybe Nd Cube and SPD 1 have something (although I think SPD1 might be doing Wario Ware for the 3DS), they might be able to make a really shitty system launch.

I'm not totally disagreeing with you, but how can you possibly be so certain about NCL's internal staffing levels, and the number of projects they could be working on?

 

[Cornbread78]

GT5 is going to be a sales beast. It is the only ps3 game I am planning to play this year, and it is going to sell a lot of steering wheels, but I think Che (as an independent and fair minded observer of the gran turismo franchise) simply means that the audience of GT fans who can wait five years between versions, that haven't picked up a PS3 yet, may not be all that big. Maybe in Europe. In fact I could easily see that in Europe.

If America was serious about GT, it would not have staffed US Top Gear with clown farts and pretty boys.

GT5 isn't a shooter, it'll sell more in Europe and JPN probably. We love our cars here, but it appears if it's not a frontline shooter, like Halo or CoD, or a Madden game, sales will not be so great.



Also, is it fair to say we're only looking at number 2 next month, since Reach will sell 3X as much as the next ranked game? Hardware for 360 will probably also get a bump next month with the Halo bundle and increased Slim sales...

 

[Vinci]

I know Horji is more of a Hideo or a Miyamoto, the point is, the suits have the final words, not the devs. Except maybe in Miyamotos case where he is like untouchable royalty there



doesn't matter, they pay the bills.

So you're suggesting that S-E is going to pass on publishing Dragon Quest because their perspective on which system it goes to doesn't match Horii's? Yeah, that isn't going to happen. If Horii says it goes somewhere, it goes there. Period. S-E doesn't want to bite the hand that feeds it, and DQ feeds it more than everything else it produces outside of Final Fantasy.

 

[AniHawk]

I think based on how this Holiday season goes It will be a must that Wii 2 launch in 2011. Nintendo knows that they can only do so much more with Wii. Motion Plus in Zelda is probably the pinnacle in what they can achieve with this systems hardware. 3DS games won't take THAT much time to make and I'm sure Wii 2 has been in development for at least 3 or 4 years now with titles like Pikmin already having been in production.

Nintendo got this.

I think the other issue is that this stuff doesn't exist in a vacuum. Nintendo will need to have nailed down or at least come close to nailing down next system specs. That means if they have (early) 2010 tech in their new system, they won't have had a ton of time to get everything in gear.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I know Horji is more of a Hideo or a Miyamoto, the point is, the suits have the final words, not the devs. Except maybe in Miyamotos case where he is like untouchable royalty there



doesn't matter, they pay the bills. If he doesn't like it, maybe he can have Namco-Bandai produce his game, or hell even SEGA.

Whatever. You're right, Square-Enix would totally tell Horii to fuck off and take his little Dragon Quest thing elsewhere just for wanting to put his game on the system with the highest install base.

 

[Cornbread78]

Eh... from a business standpoint, I think they should have the Wii 2 out by the end of 2011, but I don't think the software is going to be ready. 1st half of 2012 seems more likely.


I'm not totally disagreeing with you, but how can you possibly be so certain about NCL's internal staffing levels, and the number of projects they could be working on?

What's the rush for a nwe system already? They should be able to easily get 2-3 moer good years outta the Wii before launching a new system. It's gotta all be pure profit for them by now. The new Wii, should include full 3D tech to compliment the 3DS. Let the 3DS rule the market and bring increased interest in their 3D tech, then hit the market up with the Wii2 if it is extremely successful.

 

[farnham]

What's the rush for a nwe system already? They should be able to easily get 2-3 moer good years outta the Wii before launching a new system. It's gotta all be pure profit for them by now. The new Wii, should include full 3D tech to compliment the 3DS. Let the 3DS rule the market and bring increased interest in their 3D tech, then hit the market up with the Wii2 if it is extremely successful.

yeah nintendo sold the gamecube for 99 dollars and made profit on it

wii is a refurbished gamecube so they can pull the 99 dollar pricetag without a problem.

doesn't matter, they pay the bills. If he doesn't like it, maybe he can have Namco-Bandai produce his game, or hell even SEGA.

shit namco bandai and sega are going to have a rave party and all of japan is invited if that happens

 

[FoneBone]

What's the rush for a nwe system already? They should be able to easily get 2-3 moer good years outta the Wii before launching a new system.

:lol Have you been reading this thread at all? Wii's hardly a failure by any stretch, but it's clearly starting to flag -- let's not talk about Japan.

The new Wii, should include full 3D tech to compliment the 3DS.

:lol Ok, you have no idea what you're talking about. Nintendo can't do anything that Sony isn't already doing, and that's not going to be more than a niche market anytime soon -- way, way too expensive.

 

[Vinci]

What's the rush for a nwe system already? They should be able to easily get 2-3 moer good years outta the Wii before launching a new system. It's gotta all be pure profit for them by now. The new Wii, should include full 3D tech to compliment the 3DS. Let the 3DS rule the market and bring increased interest in their 3D tech, then hit the market up with the Wii2 if it is extremely successful.

Depends entirely on what Nintendo's motivations are. If it's simply profit, then yes, they could possibly sit tight a while longer; if it's something else, like cutting their competitors off at the knees for example, it might very well make a lot of sense to bring out a new system soonish.

 

[FrankT]

Where be that top 20?

Ask this again have we gotten any of the other numbers from the top 10?

 

[AniHawk]

I'm not totally disagreeing with you, but how can you possibly be so certain about NCL's internal staffing levels, and the number of projects they could be working on?

Because this is how it looks right now:

EAD 1 (Mario Kart, Nintendogs): Mario Kart 3DS, Nintendogs + Cats
EAD 2 (Animal Crossing, Wii Sports): Animal Crossing 3DS, Pilotwings Resort
EAD 3 (Zelda series): Skyward Sword, Ocarina of Time 3DS
EAD 4 (NSMB series): Pikmin 3
EAD 5 (Wii Fit series): Wii Relax?
Comprehensive Software Development (Pac-Man vs., SM64 DS): Star Fox 64 3DS, Steel Diver
Intelligent Systems: Paper Mario
Project Sora: Kid Icarus
Retro Studios and SPD 3: Donkey Kong Country Returns

EAD Tokyo, Monolith, Nd Cube, parts of Intelligent Systems, and SPD 1 are total guesses. SPD 2, NST, and Brownie Brown are pretty much handheld-only teams.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Where be that top 20?

Ask this again have we gotten any of the other numbers from the top 10?

It be all not comin' and shit.

 

[FrankT]

It be all not comin' and shit.

Puff, puff, pass?

 

[FoneBone]

Because this is how it looks right now:

EAD 1 (Mario Kart, Nintendogs): Mario Kart 3DS, Nintendogs + Cats
EAD 2 (Animal Crossing, Wii Sports): Animal Crossing 3DS, Pilotwings Resort
EAD 3 (Zelda series): Skyward Sword, Ocarina of Time 3DS
EAD 4 (NSMB series): Pikmin 3
EAD 5 (Wii Fit series): Wii Relax?
Comprehensive Software Development (Pac-Man vs., SM64 DS): Star Fox 64 3DS, Steel Diver
Intelligent Systems: Paper Mario
Project Sora: Kid Icarus
Retro Studios and SPD 3: Donkey Kong Country Returns

EAD Tokyo, Monolith, Nd Cube, parts of Intelligent Systems, and SPD 1 are total guesses. SPD 2, NST, and Brownie Brown are pretty much handheld-only teams.

That's not actually a response to what I posted. How are you so certain that that roster of projects puts those teams at full capacity, without specific knowledge of project sizes and staffing (including hiring over the past few years)?

(Unless Nintendo's made that sort of info public, anyway...)

 

[Vinci]

Because this is how it looks right now:

EAD 1 (Mario Kart, Nintendogs): Mario Kart 3DS, Nintendogs + Cats
EAD 2 (Animal Crossing, Wii Sports): Animal Crossing 3DS, Pilotwings Resort
EAD 3 (Zelda series): Skyward Sword, Ocarina of Time 3DS
EAD 4 (NSMB series): Pikmin 3
EAD 5 (Wii Fit series): Wii Relax?
Comprehensive Software Development (Pac-Man vs., SM64 DS): Star Fox 64 3DS, Steel Diver
Intelligent Systems: Paper Mario
Project Sora: Kid Icarus
Retro Studios and SPD 3: Donkey Kong Country Returns

EAD Tokyo, Monolith, Nd Cube, parts of Intelligent Systems, and SPD 1 are total guesses. SPD 2, NST, and Brownie Brown are pretty much handheld-only teams.

This needs to be kept in mind anytime someone suggests that a Wii successor might be coming soon. Nintendo must be able to create an adequate amount of content for the system's launch, and honestly I don't think they can do that right now given the lineup they're prepping for the 3DS. The Wii's successor is at least two years out, more than likely.

 

[AniHawk]

That's not actually a response to what I posted. How are you so certain that that roster of projects puts those teams at full capacity?

Well in the past, that seems to be about as much as we knew them to be working on at any given time, except for EAD 2. They were doing Wii Sports Resort, Wii Music, and Animal Crossing: CF all at the same time. Considering they are the Wii Sports guys, and seeing as they might have a team available, they could be doing next console stuff as well.

Retro is a one-game-at-a-time studio, and I think EAD 4 and 5 are as well. 3 never works on more than two products at a time (TP + PH, SS + PH, SS + ST, SS + OoT3D), and EAD 1 is probably in the same boat.

 

[LM4sure]

Based on the fact they are pumping out The rest of their major franchises in late 2010
(Metroid, Kirby, DK),
and sometime in 2011 with Zelda
AND they already released a Mario sequel (which they NEVER do), I don't see what else they could release that's just as significant for Wii. Not when it's so late in it's console life cycle. Seriously, Zelda WILL be the Swan Song. What better game can you open or close a consoles life with? I'm almost expecting them to play that part up, i.e. "We opened this chapter with Zelda, and now sadly we will close this chapter with Zelda"

Ok, that's all fine and good, but saying that there are only 2 big titles coming in 2011 is kind of short sighted. How many games are in development but not yet announced? Pikmin 3, for instance, is very likely to make it out in 2011. When was Goldeneye announced? June. When was DKCR announced? June. Both these titles were announced just a few short months before their release, so again, I think you are being a little short sighted here.

 

[Cornbread78]

:lol Have you been reading this thread at all? Wii's hardly a failure by any stretch, but it's clearly starting to flag -- let's not talk about Japan. :lol Ok, you have no idea what you're talking about. Nintendo can't do anything that Sony isn't already doing, and that's not going to be more than a niche market anytime soon -- way, way too expensive.

Seriously, did you read, or just comment? Who said anything abot the Wii not being successful, where did you pull that from...?
So Wii currently markets all their 3D tech Right ON THEIR CONSOLES...? I seam to remember a bunch of marketing vids on that.....Oh right.

The 3DS would be a great tool to lead them into their next gen system that offers the same goods as PS3 and 360, but will they? They seam to be heading in the right direction with the 3DS, technology wise, but is that how they want to market considerign their current success?

:
Depends entirely on what Nintendo's motivations are. If it's simply profit, then yes, they could possibly sit tight a while longer; if it's something else, like cutting their competitors off at the knees for example, it might very well make a lot of sense to bring out a new system soonish.

Good point, but are they looking to add the "Next-Gen" tech into their console, or market/create another system like the Wii

 

[evangd007]

What's the rush for a nwe system already? They should be able to easily get 2-3 moer good years outta the Wii before launching a new system. It's gotta all be pure profit for them by now. The new Wii, should include full 3D tech to compliment the 3DS. Let the 3DS rule the market and bring increased interest in their 3D tech, then hit the market up with the Wii2 if it is extremely successful.

Compare the DS and the PSP: the 3DS is being released while the DS is still strong, so while the 3DS is exciting on its own the DS brand is still strong so DS excitement will carry over to the 3DS. The PSP had good sales initially but now is a broken brand in the West, so if a PSP2 gets announced excitement will be lower due to the fact that the brand has waned in popular opinion. Nintendo needs to release the Wii2 (or Wii Plus or Power Wii or whatever they call it) while the Wii brand is still hot. Milking the Wii for profit after its "past due" date will result in a weaker brand which could allow MS or Sony to one-up them in the next gen.

Depends entirely on what Nintendo's motivations are. If it's simply profit, then yes, they could possibly sit tight a while longer; if it's something else, like cutting their competitors off at the knees for example, it might very well make a lot of sense to bring out a new system soonish.

I wonder if Nintendo will follow a loss-leader model next gen, not to take a loss initially in favor of future profits from game royalties but to steal market share and put immense pressure on MS and Sony to try and push one of them out of the industry.

 

[LM4sure]

Compare the DS and the PSP: the 3DS is being released while the DS is still strong, so while the 3DS is exciting on its own the DS brand is still strong so DS excitement will carry over to the 3DS. The PSP had good sales initially but now is a broken brand in the West, so if a PSP2 gets announced excitement will be lower due to the fact that the brand has waned in popular opinion. Nintendo needs to release the Wii2 (or Wii Plus or Power Wii or whatever they call it) while the Wii brand is still hot. Milking the Wii for profit after its "past due" date will result in a weaker brand which could allow MS or Sony to one-up them in the next gen.

Well the Playstation brand was hot when the PS3 launched. That didn't help sales though.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Well the Playstation brand was hot when the PS3 launched. That didn't help sales though.

Not when you launch after your competitors and at a much higher price...

 

[FoneBone]

Well the Playstation brand was hot when the PS3 launched. That didn't help sales though.

It wasn't what hurt sales, let's put it that way...

 

[farnham]

I wonder if Nintendo will follow a loss-leader model next gen, not to take a loss initially in favor of future profits from game royalties but to steal market share and put immense pressure on MS and Sony to try and push one of them out of the industry.

Nintendo never follows a model where they loose money

 

[charlequin]

Exactly, if Nintendo does do a mid-generation console it definitely wouldn't be a traditional successor to Wii

Nintendo doesn't have time for a "mid-generation console" anymore. 2011 will be five years from their launch, six years into the overall generation. If they launch a successor early in 2012 (very possible) they'll have supported Wii for 5 1/2 years and it's unlikely either Sony or Microsoft will wait more than a year and a half to follow them.

As much as we consumers complain about the lack of quality third party software, Nintendo really does not care since the lion's share of game sales will be of their own titles.

Opportunity cost. When Wii was constantly selling out everywhere, it didn't matter that there was no good third-party software since Nintendo had a self-contained ecosystem. Now that the Wii has fallen to earth in every territory, the lack of third-party software is problematic because Nintendo does not currently have the capacity (or software ideas, or whatever) to drive the system's sales higher and so the Wii would be more successful overall if other publishers were also supporting it.

It seems most people got enough of that "blockmaster" of the month scheme and a lot got (again) burnt after the mediocre but hyped to hell and back blockbuster of the month like the recently released Red Dead Redemption.

This conclusion makes no sense whatsoever. Not only did RDR sell over a couple months (rather than falling off to zero instantaneously like, say, FFXIII) it received none of the measurable backlash that GTA4 got.

What's actually happening with software (a situation that's been growing all generation) is exactly the opposite of what you've described: for $60, consumers are increasingly distrusting of games they're unfamiliar with and don't believe they'll provide a sufficiently large amount of sufficiently good content to make a purchase worthwhile, so they increasingly plow their gaming dollars into "sure-fire" blockbuster titles that are guaranteed to at least have a certain level of polish and quantity of finished, playable content.

I always enjoy reading people post about the Wii's demise, or fall from grace, when it's in 1/3rd of all US households.

Yeah, neither of those words is really accurate. The issue with Nintendo's console strategy here really has nothing to do with the Wii (whose overall success is assured no matter how badly they botch its last year) and much more to do with their strategy going forward: can Nintendo learn from the mistakes they've made with this system and more successfully capture the entire market next time around?

I'm in the camp that doesn't believe the holidays will help the Wii that much.

Even a complete failure of a system like the Gamecube saw an immense uptick during the holidays for Nintendo. Their audience skews young enough that they're going to do a higher portion of annual sales every holiday regardless of their relative level of performance.

Without seeing the 3d there is zero reason to be excited about it.

Well, except for being the successor of the best system from the current generation, anyway.

We did this back when PS3 got its second wind from a redesign too. The funny thing is that all this extra momentum in both systems comes from a card Nintendo has yet to play.

Slim redesigns rely on there being a large untapped market who've passed by your system in the first place who can be tempted to give it another look and discover the wealth of great software they missed out on the first time. The Wii, just by virtue of its own success, doesn't have nearly as much untapped market.

Also, slim redesigns rely on your system being fat in the first place.

doesn't matter, they pay the bills.

It very much matters when the owner of your absolute largest franchise can tell you to FOAD any time he wants and drag his ass over to literally any other Japanese publisher, any one of whom would be happy to accept a 100% guaranteed 3 million seller to add to their roster.

You were ignorant on this subject, you got called out on it. The thing to do now is say "you're right, I'm sorry, I was full of shit and you schooled me," not try to double down on being wrong.

 

[Road]

Where be that top 20?

Ask this again have we gotten any of the other numbers from the top 10?

Vg247 has 87k for NCAA11 (360) and 101k for MW2 (360), but I'm not sure how reliable those are.


Nintendo didn't even bother to do a PR, did they?

 

[Jewbacca]

Welp looks like Microsoft is gonna have the momenteum throughout the holiday season.

September 10'
Halo Reach
Guitar Hero: WoR
Fifa 11
Dead Rising II
(few more releases than this)

October 10'
NBA 2k11
Medal of Honor
Dragon Age
DJ Hero 2
Fallout: Vegas
Tony Hawk Shred
EA MMA
Shaun White
SW: Force Unleashed II
Fable III
Rock Band 3
NBA Elite 11
(Much more than this but Im just glancing at what pops out)

November 10'
Kinect
Call of Duty Black Ops..........

Well you get the point...
This holiday season is gonna be interesting...

 

[Str0ngStyle]

Look here buddy, SE can do whatever they hell they want. They can keep a game in development for a FULL generation if they so choose (KH3). Yuji Horji may have a great deal of input but ultimately SE and its investors will have the final say. They Pay the bills, not Horji. You saw how Tecmo did Itagaki.

I thought Enix was the majority owner in this merger? Especially in regards to DQ?

 

[charlequin]

Well the Playstation brand was hot when the PS3 launched. That didn't help sales though.

That's because they fucked it up. There is literally no force on Earth that can stop a company from blowing an insurmountable lead in one instant with a single, monumental fuck-up.

That's actually exactly the situation Nintendo is in with 3DS. The anticipation and pre-existing brand equity are higher than for anything since the PS2, easily. It is Nintendo's game to lose. They certainly can lose it, the same way Sony lost with PS3, but nobody else is going to lose it for them.

I thought Enix was the majority owner in this merger? Especially in regards to DQ?

There's no such thing as "Square" or "Enix" anymore, but that's also irrelevant to the issue. The Dragon Quest IP is owned by Armor Project, the company founded by Yuji Hori to manage Dragon Quest and hold its trademarks and copyrights. He publishes his games with Square-Enix as a result of a long-term publishing agreement made way back in the day with Enix, not because SE owns the series in any way.

 

[[Nintex]]

This needs to be kept in mind anytime someone suggests that a Wii successor might be coming soon. Nintendo must be able to create an adequate amount of content for the system's launch, and honestly I don't think they can do that right now given the lineup they're prepping for the 3DS. The Wii's successor is at least two years out, more than likely.

They'll just port Zelda to the new system.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Nintendo doesn't have time for a "mid-generation console" anymore. 2011 will be five years from their launch, six years into the overall generation. If they launch a successor early in 2012 (very possible) they'll have supported Wii for 5 1/2 years and it's unlikely either Sony or Microsoft will wait more than a year and a half to follow them.

Looking at the overall drop in sales I'm definitely thinking that next-gen starts in 2012. Which means this gen lasted 7 years before a succeeding gen's hardware launched, which is still longer than the PS1/Saturn/N64 gen or the PS2/Xbox/GCN gen.

 

[FirstInHell]

It is good to finally see the 360 on top. A lot of the usual 'congrats PS3', 'Year of the PS3' and '10 year plan' posters are noticeably absent.

Also, the price of the Wii has nothing to do with the decline in sales.