Que sera, sera.
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NPD Sales Results for August 2014 [Up4: PS4 #1, XB1 last week sales 2x last Jul week]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Que sera, sera.
On this note, stump did a compilation earlier of people's opinions (including an embarrassing one of mine from 2009) on how mobile would or would not impact handheld gaming from threads ranging from 2009-2012: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=96627173&postcount=32
Before the New 3DS announcement, I was quite convinced the new console would have been released on Q1 2016, given Iwata's statement in May's Investor Metting about "waiting around 2 years to see the new hardware plan being opened to the public". But such theory got a bit dragged down seeing how New 3DS releases in Q1 2015 here in the West. I mean, it'd be only around 1 year between the revision and the brand new console being released. However, in Japan a Q1 2016 launch for next handheld would mean being out 1 year and 4 months later than New 3DS, which sounds like a less strange period from a revision to a brand new console than just one year. And then, it comes to my mind how this is basically the same scenario that happened between 2009, 2010 and 2011:
DSi XL: November 21st, 2009 (Japan), March 5th 2010 (Europe), March 28th 2010 (US)
3DS: February 26th, 2011 (Japan), March 25th, 2011 (Europe), March 27th 2011 (US)
DSi XL to 3DS: 1 year and 3 months (Japan), 1 year and 20 days (Europe), 1 year (US)
Could we see a similar scenario this time too?
New 3DS / New 3DS XL: October 11th, 2014 (Japan), Q1 2015 (Europe/US)
4DS: Q1 2016 (Japan/Europe/US)
New 3DS / New 3DS XL to 3DS: 1 year and 2-to-5 months (Japan), around 1 year (Europe/US)
DSi XL: November 21st, 2009 (Japan), March 5th 2010 (Europe), March 28th 2010 (US)
3DS: February 26th, 2011 (Japan), March 25th, 2011 (Europe), March 27th 2011 (US)
DSi XL to 3DS: 1 year and 3 months (Japan), 1 year and 20 days (Europe), 1 year (US)
Could we see a similar scenario this time too?
New 3DS / New 3DS XL: October 11th, 2014 (Japan), Q1 2015 (Europe/US)
4DS: Q1 2016 (Japan/Europe/US)
New 3DS / New 3DS XL to 3DS: 1 year and 2-to-5 months (Japan), around 1 year (Europe/US)
Continuing the fallacy that the most important factor for the average consumer are exclusives?
Really? What are the current LTD numbers?
Didn't Killzone outsell Titanfall?
PS4 busted my predictions pretty good. Really thought Last of Us + Madden + Diablo would push it over 200k easily. Disappointing. Wii U right where I expected, same with 3DS. Xbone a little higher than I thought. September is gonna be tough for the guessing game.
Anyway right now it's clear Nintendo needs new consoles.
Anyway right now it's clear Nintendo needs new consoles.
If Nintendo plans for a new handheld in 2016, a holiday release in the west with Japan getting it earlier wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Not in the US to my knowledge.
Eddie Griffin
Banned
We don't know yet, we haven't had Killzone numbers since the 2.1 million.
RespectThySole
Member
C'mon man. We've gone over this so many times. If we look at the major retailer charts, the Xbox One version of Advanced Warfare has been far ahead in every month since the announcement. I'll use Amazon as an example(since it's a popular choice on GAF in regards to Destiny, Watch Dogs, etc.) There are three XB1 versions ahead of the highest selling PS4 sku of Advanced Warfare in the August best sellers. The standalone game was FAR ahead and even the bundle and $120 limited atlas edition were a decent distance ahead of the standalone PS4 game.
I don't recall having strong opinions on it other than that people's time is what's limited and anything taking more of people's time is going to affect other things they could've spent their time on.
Eddie Griffin
Banned
We also don;t know the split of the 2.1 million.
CosmicQueso
Member
More defensiveness... but not in the same way I think.
On the handhelds, it's clear that play patterns have changed, and that the offerings in the mobile space continue to improve and are indeed an acceptable substitute (improvement?) for most people to what was the dedicated handheld base.
On the Consoles, it's different. Demand for core consoles has been strong. However, the increase in development costs combined with uncertainty at the start of the gen has caused a significant pullback in published release count, at least for now. Money's starting to flow again now, but games take time to make.
When you look at the correlation between disc based release count and disc based total software sales, you can see they're almost perfectly aligned.
So why doesn't the publishing community freak out when the NPD for the consoles hit? Because average game sales continue to improve, and the declines are recognized as being supply, not demand, driven. The declines in the Nintendo platforms impact Nintendo pretty much alone at this point.
So, we're going to have the same kinds of conversations we've been having for some time now. Looking at just the macro, you look at NPD and see a lot of bad news. Once you scratch the surface (and see the detail) you can see plenty of opportunity for individual titles and publishers.
Truth is people liked to run with the incorrect commentary that Nintendo systems have terrible attach ratios and stuck this wrong assumption with the 3DS attach rate.
In fact the XL seems to have sold very strongly and the low attach ratio is explainable by a large ratio of 3DS users moving to the XL.
This feeds into its quite sluggish sales. It's username is probably more comparable to the N64 than anything else.
N3DS with games using the analogue and CPU might be a nice driver for another 20M WW.
In fact the XL seems to have sold very strongly and the low attach ratio is explainable by a large ratio of 3DS users moving to the XL.
This feeds into its quite sluggish sales. It's username is probably more comparable to the N64 than anything else.
N3DS with games using the analogue and CPU might be a nice driver for another 20M WW.
I don't care about any pre-order speculation.
I'm interested in evidence for this:
Do you have evidence for this or not? I don't want to have yet another dance in a NPD thread. I'm asking for evidence for that specific statement, not anything else.
If you have inference for the title in question based on NPD data that's also fine, but not pre-order numbers for a different title.
Do you have the same graphs but with each platform broken out.
shinra-bansho
Member
I've never understood the referencing of unquantified retailer charts in a thread about actual tracker data.
I wonder what's the attach rate with new ps4 owners since that announcement.
After 42 months:
3DS: 12.50 million
PSP: 12.45 million
PSP September 2008: 238k
3DS needs to sell at least 188k in September to avoid falling behind the PSP launch aligned. (Not gonna happen, but the 3DS could get ahead again after Nov/Dec.)
Note: it's possible the numbers are wrong by a couple dozen thousand units or more, since NPD constantly changes them.
It is donezo, but the successor needs to be released in Q4 2015 in the US.
CosmicQueso
Member
Never underestimate the sales Shooters can do on MS platforms.
metalslimer
Member
So 3DS is going to cross the streams with the PSP. Of course the PSP was never a hardware failure, so it's not some catacylsmic event either.
I think the best bet is to wait and see how Japan reacts to the new 3DS. If reception is good and Nintendo manages to release games catering to the west(3DS Zelda, 3DS Metroid) along with important Japanese localizations(Yokai Watch) then 2015 could be a decent year for 3DS in the west.
Releasing new hardware should not be Nintendo's priority. Software is the major issue. Nintendo needs to find a way to convince western third parties to release games for the 3DS and the 3DS' successor.
BotoxAgent
Member
You keep posting this, what does it even mean?
RespectThySole
Member
Yes, it is obviously speculation as the game hasn't been released yet. There are no numbers other than Chartz which we're obviously not going to use. However, looking at the retailer charts it pretty clear which version has been outselling which(whether you choose to deny it or not) just as it was clear which version of Destiny/Watch Dogs would sell the most. It's not rocket science, that's the way these things work. Hell, I always figured that Madden 15 PS4 was ahead due to that same evidence.
metalslimer
Member
If Nintendo's game is to try and increase hardware sales even more thinking more developers will make games for them they are done. Western 3rd parties are done with dedicated handhelds and they aren't coming back without some kind of gamechanger. Also why do you think another Zelda on 3DS and a not so popular franchises in Metroid would drive 3DS sales?
I don't really doubt the potential of the big players (EA,Activision,Ubisoft) in getting huge games out of the new systems, but shift towards a lot fewer games with more budget is certainly jarring. I can certainly understand why Japan doesn't want to go the route western gaming is headed.
Actually, there was nothing obvious about your post being speculation.
In NPD threads we are expected to back our statements with hard data, or clearly mark them as such.
I understand the impulse to use online ranking charts, and they can be very useful, but I think it's important to qualify where you are coming from here. It keeps the discussion a little more clear and easy to read
It's success likely led to Sony identifying that there was room for two in the market and an older group of gamers clearly buying and Advance.
He's making fun of the XB1.
He better take it easy though before he gets banned like before.
theprodigy
Member
according to Aquamarine, as of last month it's a 51/49 split in favor of Xbox One, and it outsold it again this month, so it still is
RespectThySole
Member
Actually it was. That was taken out of context. I've already explained what I was doing previously in the thread with a convo I was having with @SwiftDeath and others.
His post is nothing more then cherry picking unless he claims to have not seen my previous posts in the thread.
KillerMan91
Member
After 42 months:
3DS: 12.50 million
PSP: 12.45 million
PSP September 2008: 238k
3DS needs to sell at least 188k in September to avoid falling behind the PSP launch aligned. (Not gonna happen, but the 3DS could get ahead again after Nov/Dec.)
Note: it's possible the numbers are wrong by a couple dozen thousand units or more, since NPD constantly changes them.
Keeping up with early Wii was a pipe dream but PS4 should actually increase the gap to PS2 if it has great holiday season ( I really don't know why it wouldn't have when you look at the software it gets in october/november).
PS2 2001:
September: 343,719
Ocktober: 332,117
November: 919,131
December: 1,971,318
Not an impossible target in any way for total sales of next four months. As an individual months not probably going to match those december sales though.
I see now that people are conflating Ghosts sales with Advanced Warfare pre-orders, sorry. I apologize!
I cleared up my post above to make the point more clear (which I think still stands for the community in general when talking about sales, but is obviously not directly aimed at you anymore), but I see that it was a small part of your full post now.
I left the initial part you quoted intact for fairness.
I went back to the post and reading it in context it seems you were talking about predictions.
I read it too quickly and only saw "COD on XB1 and PS4" in a NPD thread and assumed this conversation was about the already released COD which we had numbers for.
I've used those numbers in different arguments so I was looking for new updated numbers especially in light of the high price drop in July. I got the split from theprodigy so all is good.
Well, you used "outselling" for sales that will not be discussed until 4 months from now and will not happen until 3 months from now. My auto-correction in my head did not correct that into out-pre-ordering.
I think it isn't that hard to do. Most exclusivity deals are more based on lowered royalties, dev help, advertising and more online stores/retails space. And they secured these deals with Destiny and Watch Dogs, so they are doing it. I think they just won't do that with CoD.
This game's sales are going down each year, so maybe it's wise to put your cash on new franchises that can dominate in a new gen than using it on one that may be on decline. Advanced Warfare sales will show if we will have some kind of dispute for the franchise or if they will move on for the next big seller.
Me too. I was thinking of trying it when I get a PS4 (next year).
I think that when the new 3ds comes out and sells so badly, people will realize how bad things are for Nintendo. If people had disinterest now, wait till new hat 3ds comes out.
RespectThySole
Member
Lone_Prodigy
Member
I think a DSi to 3DS comparison is more relevant. The DSi was released in Nov. 2008 in Japan and April 2009 in US/Europe, so it was out for about 2 years before the 3DS was released.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
I remember this time clearly. I also remember getting lambasted, ridiculed, and completely disregarded by Nintendo fans whenever I'd mention the decline of handhelds and mobile's impending dominance.
Birgitte2004
Member
The PS4 version of ghosts is pretty much dead even. You didn't specify that pre-orders of a not-released game are tracking ahead for Xbox One, you just said "CoD".
*EDIT* Oh, I see this has been addressed.
I think most people already think it won't do well in the west. I think it's primarily aimed towards Japan, kind of like how the 2DS was for the west (which didn't do too great), but the n3DS might also have potential in the 3DS Euro markets (Italy and France). But North America? I'm not expecting anything. We'll see if it can average 40-50K or more in Japan for a bit though.
That Iwata statement seemed to me about development for the next systems rather than the release dates which could be a year or more later than that. In other words a couple of years of R&D with something like an E3 2016 unveiling is possible with a release of hardware Q4 2016. However with QOL releasing 2015 and Nintendo likely wanting to spend a fair bit of time to try and get things right it could be 2017 before we see a new handheld/console release.
As it is, this month was pretty uneventful all round really. PS4 was steady this month and X1 improved a bit thanks to Madden. Wii U unsurprisingly is dropping post Mario Kart but consistent with this years performance rather than to last years. 3DS is again down 20-30% YOY as it's been all year. Overdue a price cut but may finally get one at some point soon seeing as the new SKU is on the way.
We might be the only three on the planet
Though honestly when I do pickup my PS4 I doubt I'll go out of my way to try it. Maybe if it were to come around in the free psplus rotation I'd give it a download. I'm just not the builder type.Also that post from Nirolak up above with the link to that compilation post in regards to handheld gaming was a fascinating read. Makes me curious about when the end of this current generation comes, just how on point, or far off people are gonna be in their thoughts.