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[jackdoe]

November is just going to be nuts.

GTAV
MCC
CoD:AW

What fun will be had in the NPD thread.

Don't forget AC Unity.

 

[KillerMan91]

November is just going to be nuts.

GTAV
MCC
CoD:AW

What fun will be had in the NPD thread.

AC Unity, Far Cry 4, Dragon Age: Inquisition, Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire etc.

 

[xxracerxx]

Don't forget AC Unity.

AC Unity, Far Cry 4, Dragon Age: Inquisition, Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire etc.

Totally forgot, thanks. November is nuts.

A lot of consoles are going to be sold in Nov/Dec.

 

[jayu26]

We might be the only three on the planet Though honestly when I do pickup my PS4 I doubt I'll go out of my way to try it. Maybe if it were to come around in the free psplus rotation I'd give it a download. I'm just not the builder type.

Also that post from Nirolak up above with the link to that compilation post in regards to handheld gaming was a fascinating read. Makes me curious about when the end of this current generation comes, just how on point, or far off people are gonna be in their thoughts.

The way it sells every month...there is no way that will happen.

 

[RespectThySole]

AC Unity, Far Cry 4, Dragon Age: Inquisition, Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire etc.

Smash Bros U

 

[theprodigy]

November is just going to be nuts.

GTAV
MCC
CoD:AW

What fun will be had in the NPD thread.

Wii U Smash, Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire, Assassin's Creed: Unity, and more!

Spoiler

actually 3DS Smash next month could be interesting

 

[Aquamarine]

3DS: -32% YOY


Happy now?

 

[Atone13]

The way it sells every month...there is no way that will happen.

Well, I mean I'm not expecting it pop up on there in the next couple months, nor am I sitting in anticipation hoping it does, 'cause like I said it's not something that's ever really appealed to me. But a couple years from now, who knows right, all I'm saying is that would pretty much be the only scenario where I would download that game, for me personally.

 

[Zekra Dezivad]

Call of Duty Ghosts XBO vs PS4

Month      Winner
 Nov        PS4
 Dec        XBO
 Jan        XBO
 Feb        XBO
 Mar        PS4
 Apr        PS4
 May        PS4
 Jun        PS4
 Jul        XBO
 Aug        XBO
 Sep
 Oct
 Nov
 Dec

Note: Battlefield 4 was absent from the top10 since last March

 

[Eddie Griffin]

Forza Horizon two comes out at the end of august so I guess that will really only have an effect on oct along with sunset overdrive bundle which should be helping oct as well, although the game probably won't do anything itself until Nov.

So I am guessing that September will be murda unless these insanely crazy promotions going on for Xbox are enough to stop or close the gap in difference.

So instead of murda, hospitalized with an IV. The again, Destiny sales have still not been announced, so i'm starting to wonder. Maybe Activision sold so much they are just waiting for the 10 million announcement next week.

 

[Mory Dunz]

About people saying a 3DS successor should've come out next year instead of the n3DS revision:


That would just result in another 3DS first months situation. Cause there's no way HW driving software is ready for Fall 2015. I don't anyone think wants that again. They need to at least have a Mario game for launch so Fall 2016 is my guess.

Maybe even Majora's Mask too if that ends up not coming to n3DS.

 

[flkraven]

So do we have any clear numbers yet for hardware?

 

[Aquamarine]

So do we have any clear numbers yet for hardware?

We have clear numbers for EVERY hardware that's still alive and even a few hardware that's dead.

 

[lightning2k3]

3DS: -32% YOY


Happy now?

I think we already got 91k from someone else but thanks!

 

[Aquamarine]

I think we already got 91k from someone else but thanks!

yeah i want donny2112 to post the prediction results already!

 

[Game Guru]

I've been going back to older NPD threads recently, and it's amazing the defensiveness (including myself) about how much handheld gaming had changed. It's only been a few years and now it's an indisputable fact. I wonder what we will be saying about the current consoles 3 years from now.

It probably will be something on the order of "Why are only the PS4 and its games selling?" XB1 is really only selling in the US while 3DS is really only selling in Japan while everything else is not selling a damn to anyone. One could already predict that the core gaming market is going to collapse into basically just the PS4 with XB1 and 3DS being in weak second and third places while PC and mobile eat all the lunches.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

Oh man "superior" fashion? I gotta get in on that. Difference has got to be amazing I'm sure.

Spoiler

EL OH EL

still cracks me up that people act like the cross-plat games are ever gonna be extremely different from each other. showmethereceipts.gif

You don't have to wait much longer, the differences are gonna be pretty notable once current-gen only SW starts hitting shelves... the differences haven't been big so far because most releases have been cross-gen, so don't sweat it... you'll see the big differences soon enough.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

Those posters are insane.

I remember some of those posts, shockingly enough they were Nintendo hardcore guys.

 

[jcm]

3DS: -32% YOY


Happy now?

Hmm, that means I had a bad number for 3DS last year. I'm going to have to update my YOY comps. Updated:

Year Over Year

         2014    2013  % Change
XB1                     
360                        -56%
PS4                     
PS3                        -68%
WIU                         71%
WII                        -61%
3DS                        -32%
NDS          
PSV                        -60%
PSP         
                        
Family                  
MSFT      209     114       83%
SONY      223     104      114%
NINT      165     238      -31%
                        
HAND       97     186      -48%
CONSOLE   500     270       85%

Gen over Gen

Console  2014    2007  % Change
360               277     
PS2               202     
WII               404     
PS3               131     
TOTAL    500    1,014      -51%
                        
Handheld 2014    2008  % Change
NDS               518     
PSP               253     
Total      97     771      -87%

 

[eddfromtheriver]

Yeah nothing is saving X1 this holiday thats for sure.

*Grinchsevilgrinwithcurlinghair.gif*

 

[mejin]

3DS: -32% YOY


Happy now?

I'm lost. What does it mean?

 

[Popnbake]

I'm not sure if Amiibo will catch fire like Skylander or Infinity did. The idea behind it will confuse parents and their kids. You buy figures, but you don't play as them. In stead you train them to be your partner or your offline cpu opponent. It was already hard for me to grasp the concept the first time I saw the trailer and I won't be surprise if non-gamers don't understand it.

Yeah...I'm not sure if Amiibo will have that success either.

But hopefully it works out for them.

 

[Aquamarine]

I'm lost. What does it mean?

3DS sold -32% from August 2013.

I wanted to post a confirmation so donny2112 could go ahead with tallying up the prediction results.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Well I guess my thought process is more this.

What's releasing for the 3DS in the West after the New 3DS comes out?

It's not timed with Smash so anyone getting that in the first few months might end up finding they're fine with playing it on the system they have already been using it on.

And more generally, I actually am having trouble thinking of what games are coming out after that point. Maybe Bravely Second and Final Fantasy Explorers? Project STEAM? Am I forgetting anything else?

That's why I think the notion of "Nintendo won't release exclusive software for n3DS" is ridiculous. They won't sell n3DS throught a pititful upgrade of hardware or VC releases they will sell it with software, otherwise it dosn't make sense.

I'm lost. What does it mean?

That 3DS is heading to it's tomb faster than most people thinks.

 

[Xianghua]

what are the tricks to find clean hardware number in this thread? I can't find it.

and why it's not in the first post?

 

[opticalmace]

what are the tricks to find clean hardware number in this thread? I can't find it.

and why it's not in the first post?

Only official numbers get put in the OP.

 

[Aquamarine]

what are the tricks to find clean hardware number in this thread? I can't find it.

and why it's not in the first post?

Think about NPD threads and how they play out...it's not that hard.

And it's not in the first post because it's not officially stated data...it's leaked by insiders.

 

[metalslimer]

So yeah that forecast for the 3DS is getting revised down in January.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Call of Duty Ghosts XBO vs PS4

Month      Winner
 Nov        PS4
 Dec        XBO
 Jan        XBO
 Feb        XBO
 Mar        PS4
 Apr        PS4
 May        PS4
 Jun        PS4
 Jul        XBO
 Aug        XBO
 Sep
 Oct
 Nov
 Dec

Xbone version has often been available at a cheaper price. A lot of people were snapping up X1 copies of Ghosts at Target for under $4 recently by taking advantage of a promo and price matching their website. They're buying them cheap and then flipping to Best Buy and Gamestop.

 

[Tripon]

We have clear numbers for EVERY hardware that's still alive and even a few hardware that's dead.

Ouya and Amazon console numbers?

(I forgot what Amazon calls their micro console.)

 

[dragonfart28]

Gen over Gen

Console  2014    2007  % Change
360               277     
PS2               202     
WII               404     
PS3               131     
TOTAL    500    1,014      -51%
                        
Handheld 2014    2008  % Change
NDS               518     
PSP               253     
Total      97     771      -87%

Not so good but what about PS4/XBO?

Are they included in the totals?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Not so good but what about PS4/XBO?

Are they included in the totals?

He's doing PS3+PS4+X360+XBO(+Wiiu?) vs PS3+PS2+X360+Wii

 

[Opiate]

Not so good but what about PS4/XBO?

Are they included in the totals?

Yes. That is all sales from last gen (PS2/PS3/360/Wii) compared to PS4/One/WiiU/PS3/360 today. As will be noted, the decline is (thus far) almost entirely a consequence of Nintendo's decline and 360/PS3's unexpectedly sharp drop offs. On the other hand, historically when one competitor has done worse in a new generation, the others have taken up the slack (e.g. last generation with Sony's collapse, Nintendo and Microsoft did much better). That doesn't seem to be happening this generation.

 

[dragonfart28]

So the industry hasn't grown then.

 

[Opiate]

So the industry hasn't grown then.

Hm.

Do you mean the console industry? Definitely not. It's contracting sharply. It's doing so quite unevenly, however -- that shouldn't be a surprise -- so the most invested audience (usually referred to as the "hardcore") that most third parties have always focused on anyway are relatively intact.

Are we seeing a shift to iOS?

And Android, and Facebook, and other casual portals, yes. There may even be some bleed from Steam, but that's more difficult to separate out if it exists at all. It's most pronounced in handhelds, but consoles are feeling the burn, too.

 

[dragonfart28]

Yea but staying with the hardcore base is not a safe plan because they can get very fickle and drop interest.

Do you think we are going to see a shift to iOS?

Edit: lol @ our edits.

Thank you for answering my questions.

I was watching Apple's conference the other day and it looks like they are pushing harder on games than previously.

 

[Opiate]

Yea but staying with the hardcore base is not a safe plan because they can get very fickle and drop interest.

Do you think we are going to see a shift to iOS?

Edit: lol @ our edits.

The "hardcore" are not fickle, relatively. The problems with focusing on the "hardcore" are this:

1) It's a relatively stagnant market. It isn't growing very rapidly.
2) It's low margin. Because "core" games cost so much to make, there's relatively little profit to be made.

But there are benefits, too:

1) Very dense market. That is, a product that really appeals to the "core" can potentially attract 10, 20 or even 30% of the market at once. That's a lot, by the standards of most market segments.
2) Reliable. These "core" users have highly predictable tastes, which means publishers can more reliably predict how their games will sell. This makes the market safer for publishers who have an established presence there.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

Xbone version has often been available at a cheaper price. A lot of people were snapping up X1 copies of Ghosts at Target for under $4 recently by taking advantage of a promo and price matching their website. They're buying them cheap and then flipping to Best Buy and Gamestop.

Thanks man, that's interesting, and yes i do recall seeing several special offers for Ghosts (XBO version), that's what is helping it sell more/equal to the PS4 version.

 

[lightning2k3]

what are the tricks to find clean hardware number in this thread? I can't find it.

and why it's not in the first post?

Read through the thread. It's not in the first pose because NPD ninjas are real. Hell, you might even be one.

 

[Nirolak]

I think the best example of how predictable the core audience is would be looking at the top 10 best selling games list NPD puts out every December and noticing it's almost identical to the previous year (sans the subtitle or iteration number in the game titles). Even for the games that aren't the same they're usually similar in concept like trading GTA for Red Dead or Halo for Battlefield.

I mean seriously:

2013:

2012:

2011:

Annual 2011 Top 10 Games (New Physical Retail only; across all platforms incl. PC) Rank Publisher
1.) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (360, PS3, Wii, PC)** 1 Activision Blizzard
2.) Just Dance 3 (Wii, 360, PS3) 2 Ubisoft
3.) Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (360, PS3, PC)** 3 Bethesda Softworks
4.) Battlefield 3 (360, PS3, PC)** 4 Electronic Arts
5.) Madden NFL 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PSP, PS2)** 5 Electronic Arts
6.) Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, Wii, NDS, PC)** 6 Activision Blizzard
7.) Batman: Arkham City (360, PS3, PC)** 7 Warner Bros. Interactive
8.) Gears of War 3 (360)** 8 Microsoft
9.) Just Dance 2 (Wii) 9 Ubisoft
10.) Assassin's Creed: Revelations (360, PS3, PC) 10 Ubisoft

2010:

Annual 2010 Top 10 Games (New Physical Retail only; across all platforms incl. PC) Rank Publisher
01. Call of Duty: Black Ops** (360, PS3, Wii, PC, NDS) ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
02. Madden NFL 11 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP) ELECTRONIC ARTS
03. Halo: Reach** (360) MICROSOFT
04. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii) NINTENDO
05. Red Dead Redemption (360, PS3) TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
06. Wii Fit Plus** (Wii) NINTENDO
07. Just Dance 2 (Wii) UBISOFT
08. Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare 2** (360, PS3, PC) ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
09. Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood** (360, PS3) UBISOFT
10. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC) TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE

 

[IndoAssassin]

so what is current LTD in US?

 

[Aquamarine]

The "hardcore" are not fickle, relatively. The problems with focusing on the "hardcore" are this:

1) It's a relatively stagnant market. It isn't growing very rapidly.
2) It's low margin. Because "core" games cost so much to make, there's relatively little money to be made.

But there are benefits, too:

1) Very dense market. That is, a product that really appeals to the "core" can potentially attract 10, 20 or even 30% of the market at once. That's a lot, by the standards of most market segments.
2) Reliable. These "core" users have highly predictable tastes, which means publishers can more reliably predict how their games will sell. This makes the market safer for publishers who have an established presence there.

This reliability factor is key for greenlighting new AAA games.

If it wasn't essentially guaranteed, for example, that GTA V would be a smash hit based on the precedent of prior GTA releases, it would make no financial sense for Take-Two to pour $265 million into its development and marketing.

The predictability also lends itself to consolidation and fewer risk-taking, a situation that's endemic to the industry as sequels continue to underperform their predecessors.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

The "hardcore" are not fickle, relatively. The problems with focusing on the "hardcore" are this...

Oh dang... a thought crossed my mind, are we (the hardcore gamers) a dying breed that won't be replaced?, kids now are growing up with them dang smart devices and seem to be ok with playing vapid hollow free (next to free) games. I fear for the future of the gaming market as we know it once we (the hardcore gamers) start pushing up daisies... oh well... i wouldn't possibly care about that in the afterlife now would i?.

 

[Devilgunman]

November is just going to be nuts.

GTAV
MCC
CoD:AW

What fun will be had in the NPD thread.

If CoD:AW bundle and MCC can't push Xbone unit pass PS4 in NPD chart, nothing can stop PS4 anymore.

 

[IndoAssassin]

If CoD:AW bundle and MCC can't push Xbone unit pass PS4 in NPD chart, nothing can stop PS4 anymore.

yah especially when you factor in the marketing deal for AC Unity and Dragon Age.

 

[Opiate]

Oh dang... a thought crossed my mind, are we (the hardcore gamers) a dying breed that won't be replaced?, kids now are growing up with them dang smart devices and seem to be ok with playing vapid hollow free (next to free) games. I fear for the future of the gaming market as we know it once we (the hardcore gamers) start pushing up daisies... oh well... i wouldn't possibly care about that in the afterlife now would i?.

Well, this isn't some new phenomenon. Do you know how everyone's Dad seems to have dated taste in music that no longer represents the mainstream? How 40 year olds of every generation think the new music that kids are listening to is "just noise?" How kids today read books like Twilight and Vampire Academy instead of Roald Dahl or Gertrude Warner? How kids today aren't interested in 2D animation films any more?

Yes, it is reasonable to assume that your taste in games will fall out fashion and eventually be replaced by stuff that you hate. That is not particular to you, or to gaming, though. Welcome to the wonderful world of "you're getting older."

 

[kinoki]

If CoD:AW bundle and MCC can't push Xbone unit pass PS4 in NPD chart, nothing can stop PS4 anymore.

I'm thinking that Sony made a really good bet with Destiny. If they win the shooter crowd over before the launch of the next CoD we'll likely see a whole different outcome than what we'd usually expect.

 

[CosmicQueso]

so what is current LTD in US?

Best question of the thread.

Well, this isn't some new phenomenon. Do you know how everyone's Dad seems to have dated taste in music that no longer represents the mainstream? How 40 year olds of every generation think the new music that kids are listening to is "just noise?" How kids today read books like Twilight and Vampire Academy instead of Roald Dahl or Gertrude Warner? How kids today aren't interested in 2D animation films any more?

Yes, it is reasonable to assume that your taste in games will fall out fashion and eventually be replaced by stuff that you hate. That is not particular to you, or to gaming, though. Welcome to the wonderful world of "you're getting older."

Wow, man.

Yep, time to break out the good stuff tonight and reflect.

Oh dang... a thought crossed my mind, are we (the hardcore gamers) a dying breed that won't be replaced?, kids now are growing up with them dang smart devices and seem to be ok with playing vapid hollow free (next to free) games. I fear for the future of the gaming market as we know it once we (the hardcore gamers) start pushing up daisies... oh well... i wouldn't possibly care about that in the afterlife now would i?.

The corest of the core on the PC are playing MOBAs, billions are being spent in iOS, the Consoles are the last bastion of the traditional games market and even those are shifting towards MTX and service models. At some point, someone is just going to give away the client of something like Destiny for free and sell in game content.

But yeah, it's all happening. Just a matter of time.

 

[IndoAssassin]

Do you think the marketing deal with Disney Infinity Marvel will help push PS4's?

 

[Tiberius]

Do you think the marketing deal with Disney Infinity Marvel will help push PS4's?

There's a marketing deal ?