C4Lukins said:
You are acting like some odd video game pundit. I know you are a big fan of all things Nintendo, so lets look at Mario as an example. You have Super Mario Bros. then you have the US sequel which was successful but was a step backwards for some, then you had 3 which was huge, then Mario World which was just as huge, and then Mario World 2 which took a big step back as far as sales, then Mario 64......... Point being we recently had Mario Galaxy which was one of the better Mario games and while successful was just completely raped by the "New Super Mario Games" on both the DS and Wii. Mario 64, Sunshine, Galaxy..... Those titles trended downwards for the series as far as sales but Mario is bigger then ever now, and that downward trend did not equate to the death of the series. Mario went from the biggest franchise, to a moderately successful franchise, to once again the biggest franchise. Your metaphor sucks because the very example you are using does not even prove you point. It just makes you look more silly.
What is funny about your analysis, is that you are looking at Halo in the way that someone would attack Mario if they were being really stupid. "The last Mario Party game sold 1/4th of Mario World, the franchise is on the way down. Mario Tennis sold 1 million copies, Mario 3 sold 20 million plus.... " "Mario is dead, well not dead, just it has peaked."
And maybe you are right. GTA possibly peaked and is beyond its best years, the same with Halo... But Mario tells us that there is no simplistic cycle for a franchise. I have never seen someone try so hard to manipulate reality into the Utopian video game universe in which they would like to believe exists to this level.
I would never rigidly assign a definitive cycle to anything in the game industry. However, I assert that those comparing Halo to Mario, at least in this point in the Halo franchises life would be wrong to do so, especially given your example.
In my example I pointed directly to the mainline Halo franchise itself, so let's focus on that for a second. Halo on the XBOX, (like Mario on the NES) really did not have any stiff competition in its genre; FPS. Now, the FPS is the focal point of game development, design, implementation, and popularity. Just as Halo was a big fish in a small pond on the XBOX, it has to deal with a myriad of competition for the same dollars on the 360. That, in addition to its semi-frequent releases, are diminishing its value.
The example you gave, Mario Party, doesn't at all fit within the cycle i'm referring. Mario Party's only association with the Mario platformer is the mascot that appears in them. Mario Party was never going to siphon dollars from Mario 64, or Crash Bandicoot, or Spyro, or other games in the same genre that are competing for the same dollars. Similarly, Halo Wars has little to fear from Modern Warfare as far as its product cycle is concerned.
As for the Mario platformer games themselves, a few things have happened with the series, as well as the genre. First, Mario releases thinned out. It is only now in this Wii generation that we're even seeing more than one Mario platform game release in a generation, whereas on the NES they were far more frequent. Additionally, platformers are no longer the monster genre they were in the 16 bit days, and much of the competition Mario games had say on the SNES and N64 has thinned out. For many, NSMBW and Galaxy are either the only choice or the cream of a very slim crop of games within the genre to pick. The Mario platformer games on the Wii and DS are seeing a rejuvenated product cycle as a result.
Halo, on the other hand, cannot be afforded that luxury. FPS is the master genre of this generation, and as such the competitors for time and attention are thick. Beyond that, as it stands now, Halo isn't even the most popular game IN this genre right now, whereas before it was the definitive title.
This is why I said it would be wise of Microsoft to slow the releases, particularly if it wants Halo to continue to be a marquee franchise beyond this generation. Please understand, by none of this do I mean that Halo will stop selling or that the franchise will die and the Earth will be salted from its presence. However if Microsoft truly intends to maintain Halo as the monster franchise it is, it would do well to not over saturate its userbase with the game lest they grow weary and switch to something else, as is the case with any product at the end of its maturity stages.