confuziz said:
Fine, but it sure looked like it. The year has just started and a lot of (3rd party) games can be announced if for instance nintendo lowers the price to 180 dollars/euros and the interest in the console gets renewed somehow. I wouldn't say it's over yet, and that post seems to imply it is.
Right, now you've actually made a point.
I'd say your scenario is very unlikely. First, the Wii is currently $199 dollars; why would a $19 price drop do anything? I think it's pretty much accepted that $40-50 is the minimum price drop increment.
Secondly, the timing on your hypothetical seems unlikely. Games, even modest ones, take at least a year to develop. Any support that is hypothetically being drummed up by Nintendo's actions in 2011 will not manifest until 2012 or 2013. Any games being announced for 2011 are already in development now.
But, assume they are already in development, let's do a survey of publishers:
- Activision; doesn't believe in exclusives (although Goldeneye is obviously something worth making an exception to that policy). Do you see room for another Goldeneye-style exclusive?
- Square Enix / Eidos; On the Square Enix side, short of Dragon Quest X, every internal development team is currently working on a project and none of them are for the Wii. They've just announced a series of titles for 3DS. I think it's possible there could be some token support from the SE side before DQX, but unlikely. On the Eidos side, Crystal Dynamics is working on Tomb Raider which will either be omni-platform or PS360PC. IO Interactive is working on Hitman 5, which will be PS360. The Championship Manager team will continue with that series. Eidos Montreal is on Deus Ex 3 and Thief 4, both of which will be PS360PC. I think Eidos still owns some of Rocksteady, who are mostly owned by WB and are working on Arkham City (PS360PC). There are no Eidos teams who will be able to work on Wii titles.
- EA; has converted their Wii exclusive teams to making HD console titles, has began to port their family friendly titles to PS360 (MySims Sky Heroes being one example of this strategy) Visceral? They're working on several IPs right now, but all PS360. EALA? The Boom Blox team is gone, so that pretty much precludes further Wii titles, although we don't know what they're working on. Montreal? Wii teams dismantled and converted to PS360PC. BioWare? They've got 3 projects, 0 for the Wii. DICE? Mirror's Edge 2, Battlefield 3. That leaves EA Sports, which will release no exclusives and only half their SKUs for the Wii, and whatever the mess that's going on with Criterion and Black Box--IE the next racing game, which will likely be PS360PC, but possibly have a Wii SKU. EA Salt Lake? My Garden 3DS. EA Bright Light? XBLA/PSN for Spare Parts. The Sims Team? Omniplatform. EA Partners? Insomniac's game will be PS360, Respawn's game will be PS360, Crysis 2 from Crytek (and Crytek are elsewhere busy making PC and 360 games), Bulletstorm with Epic Games... I'd include the team at Armature (ex-Retro), but 1) their deal seems to have mysteriously disappeared, and 2) one of the reasons why they supposedly left Retro was a desire to work on other consoles.
- THQ; shut down / converted their most Wii-friendly studios to digital distro studios. All major titles in development, accounting for virtually all of their development resources, are on PS360. Vigil? PS360. Volition? PS360. Montreal? Presumably PS360 but their title won't release for at least two more years. Blue Tongue? Multiplatform. Kaos? PS360. Relic? PC. Juice? XBLA/PSN. Rainbow? Presumably XBLA/PSN. They've got the old Midway San Diego studio, but all of their projects were PS360. The only studio they have that isn't committed to a non-Wii platform is their Australian studio.
Edit: I have been reminded that I forgot that uDraw has been very successful for THQ and so we might hope for them to publish some external uDraw titles in 2011. Great catch!
- Ubisoft; major development teams committed to PS360, minor development teams now porting Wii games to PS3 and 360. Will release a port of one of the PC Sherlock Holmes games for Wii. Driver? Multiplatform. Ghost Recon? PS360. Assassin's Creed 3? PS360. From Dust? PSN/XBLA. Child of Eden? PS360. Far Cry 3? PS360. Many previously Wii-exclusive franchises (Your Shape as one example, but the others are casual as well) now PS3/360/Wii. It's possible Rayman Origins will have a Wii SKU although not guaranteed. Just Dance 3 is the best chance--the question is will it be Wii-exclusive or multiplatform?
- Sega; Well, here's a good chance. You could easily see a Wii-exclusive Sonic and perhaps another Monkey Ball (although Monkey Ball 3DS might preclude this). They've got 6 3DS titles slated. Other than that, we know their major titles for the year--Conduit 2 (Wii!), Yakuza 4, Rise of Nightmares, Binary Domain, Aliens: Colonial Marines.
- Bethesda; Never made a Wii game, never will, all studios accounted for.
- Namco; Running headlong away from the Wii. All new games announced for PS360 or just PS3, Tales of Graces (seen to be a Wii killer app for third parties) ported to PS3 where it sold more copies. Next Tales is PS3.
- Atlus; none announced, biggest internal team working on PS360, no good candidates for localization by Atlus USA. Possibility of fourth Wii Trauma game, I guess, but seems unlikely to me.
I've left out Capcom, Konami, Tecmo-Koei, WB, Majesco, LucasArts, and all the piddly ZOO Games-style ultra-budget publishers. I'm sure Majesco will have some Wii exclusives, but whether they fall under the casual-but-not-garbageware or casual-and-garbageware categories will be hard to tell. WB took a Wii exclusive and made it Wii/PS3 last year, I expect that trend to continue. Tecmo-Koei doing the same thing with Samurai Warriors 3. Konami has never given the Wii a meaningful exclusive and the exclusivity on DDR has faded. LucasArts' go-to team for Wii versions (Krome) is now defunct. Capcom has announced a bunch of 3DS support and a bunch of PS360/PSN/XBLA support, I think it's hypothetically possible they could do a new Wii rail shooter, although if you were making a rail shooter, wouldn't it also be on the PS3 at this point?
I'm not saying there won't be a few handfuls of third party Wii titles worth looking into over 2011, but the landscape is pretty locked up and the trend is kind of clearly not working in the Wii's favour.
We also have comments on GAF and off GAF from developers confirming publishers Wii-skepticism. The Renegade Kid guys have confirmed it. On GAF, Mario Wynands (from Sidhe) has confirmed it.