AniHawk said:
That's going to make for a rough 2012 and especially 2013 then. Microsoft looks to be content on riding the wave out until 2013 too with the success of Kinect, but I think they're in a position where they could have launched 2012 if Kinect was a failure.
I think Nintendo's "done" for this generation after Zelda. A lot of studios making 3DS games doesn't leave a lot of time to be spared, but they'd have enough people working for a decent launch in 2012 or launch window (unless Tokyo, NDCube, Retro, EAD 2, EAD 4, and Monolith are all working on 3DS/Wii stuff at the time).
Yeah, I don't think it's ideal, but given their current circumstances, I think it's about the best they can do.
I suspect the remaining years of the PS3 to be used to launch stuff like Guerrilla's new IP, Santa Monica's new IP(s), and help try to build their smaller franchises like MotorStorm and LittleBigPlanet among gamers who are more hardware price sensitive.
I suspect Sony wants to get larger titles like Uncharted 4, Gran Turismo 6, and Killzone 4 out early next generation to help push the console and/or grow the series, so I don't expect to see new entries this generation for any of those. Out of that list, I realize that Killzone isn't a very big seller, but given Guerrilla's technical expertise, I expect Sony wants it out as a graphical showcase and to try and position it as their flagship FPS series.
Series that aren't huge sellers like Infamous, but are still out in the second half of this year I'm less sure about. It's kind of a hard decision on whether to release a new entry with the bigger PS3 install base (perhaps even after the PS4 is out barring a very short development cycle), or to give them extended development cycles and try to grow them with an earlier PS4 release.
But yeah, from that perspective, I think Sony's in pretty alright shape going into next generation if they're shooting for a 2013 launch, but I agree with you that 2013's PS3 sales probably won't look super amazing.
As for Nintendo, I agree with you, but they are a bit harder to predict.