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NPD Sales Results For December 2010 [Up5: Some Kinect/Move Data]

[Nintex]

Member
a Master Ninja said:
At various points in the 1990's it felt like SEGA did this.
I don't know why but both Microsoft and Sony 'copied' Sega's approach of crazy spending and are trying to beat the competition by bundling their best game and selling hardware at a loss. It seems that Microsoft is slowly moving away from that path. Sony is still stuck in this strategy. The chart says it all, they've spend a crazy ammount of money just to keep up. They could've/should've come up with a smarter strategy. They need to bring in some business magic, get some new people to run SCEE and SCEA. They have some great studios under their belt they just need to push the right products at the right time.
 

TAS

Member
Yeah..Sony developed motion controllers back in 2001 and waited 9 years before they released it. My ass. The reality is Sony 'borrows' ideas from the true innovator in the business [Nintendo] and improves upon them. This has been happening since the SNES days. Nothing new here.
 
P90 said:
This is a video that could have been made anytime. Any links to patents, I.e. Verifiable and objective proof? I'm not knocking the move at all,just the timeline.

No, it couldn't have been made any time. It's from 2003. That was running on the PS2.

Apenheul said:
That video has NOTHING to do with the Wii Remote or even the aspects that Move is accused of copying. It seems purely image-based to me.
It was a WIP, that transformed into Move.

TAS said:
Yeah..Sony developed motion controllers back in 2001 and waited 9 years before they released it. My ass. The reality is Sony 'borrows' ideas from the true innovator in the business [Nintendo] and improves upon them. This has been happening since the SNES days. Nothing new here.
That's such a narrow minded read of the situation... Sony, or better yet, Mark, was clearly working on that A LONG time ago. But it's also probably true that Sony only gave it the green light after seeing Wiis success, specially considering the subpar performance of the EyeToy.
 
It doesn't matter that the move has been in dev since 2003, companies always have R&D in these kinda tech in the vault, but it was the success of the Wii that pushed Sony to bring the move to market. Microsoft got lucky with Kinect but that luck didn't come without effort.
 

Zoe

Member
P90 said:
This is a video that could have been made anytime. Any links to patents, I.e. Verifiable and objective proof? I'm not knocking the move at all,just the timeline.

http://worldwideintertubes.com/2010...playstation-move-with-sonys-dr-richard-marks/
The new device builds upon on ten years of research that also produced the EyeToy, an earlier motion control product that used only a video camera.

...

Back in 2001 we made a demo with a camera tracking colored ball on a stick, and onscreen it projected a character over the ball.

Did the final release depend on the Wii's success? Sure, why not. But to claim that people were forced to drop their prestigious Cell R&D in order to copy the Wii would be completely false.
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
i'm not sure why it matters how long sony has been experimenting with motion controls.
 

[Nintex]

Member
The public doesn't care if Atari or a college kid cooked up a wand with the same experience in the 90's. It's all about the experience and with the current line-up Sony offers the same experience that Nintendo had in 2006. Sony ignored 5 years of trial and error in motion gaming, unlike Microsoft who took what worked and gave it their own unique spin.
 

apana

Member
The problem is Sony tries to take the best of what everyone has already done and put it into one box. People are no longer interested in that type of console, but it worked for PS1 and PS2.
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
well they did. sorta.

look, plenty of movie studios released movies in 3d decades ago. do you think that means the recent 3d movie craze is unrelated to Avatar's success?

doesn't matter how long they worked on it. the move (and kinect) only exists as a product because of the success of the wii.
 

Koren

Member
TAS said:
Yeah..Sony developed motion controllers back in 2001 and waited 9 years before they released it. My ass.
Nintendo was developing the Wii Remote back in the late 90s... Sega reps once said they was a bit worried by GameCube motion controller. It takes for projects to become actual products. Besides, that's not surprising, given that in 2003, the tech Sony was developping was similar to student projects in the University I was working at at this time.

I think Sony may have been reluctant to push something like Move without the Wii success, but I have no doubt that they try a couple of options all the time. See the Iwata Ask, Nintendo keeps testing ideas.
 
apana said:
The problem is Sony tries to take the best of what everyone has already done and put it into one box. People are no longer interested in that type of console, but it worked for PS1 and PS2.
What? Why WOULDN'T they want something that does everything? I sure as hell would want one that does.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
apana said:
The problem is Sony tries to take the best of what everyone has already done and put it into one box. People are no longer interested in that type of console, but it worked for PS1 and PS2.

I disagree with that. People still wonder if the 360 has a blu-ray player.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Kagari said:
I disagree with that. People still wonder if the 360 has a blu-ray player.
Yeah, that approach is still fairly effective if priced appropriately.

The PS3's main problem in North America is that it has already lost the momentum war, so anyone who wants to play with their friends who already have Xbox 360s needs to get an Xbox 360 instead of a PS3.

Given the popularity of online multiplayer this generation, that's a pretty fatal blow to Sony's ability to really have sales take off again.

Getting first on the scene with some very strong multiplayer titles next generation would be a really smart move for them.
 
Nirolak said:
Yeah, that approach is still fairly effective if priced appropriately.

The PS3's main problem in North America is that it has already lost the momentum war, so anyone who wants to play with their friends who already have Xbox 360s needs to get an Xbox 360 instead of a PS3.

Given the popularity of online multiplayer this generation, that's a pretty fatal blow to Sony's ability to really have sales take off again.

Getting first on the scene with some very strong multiplayer titles next generation would be a really smart move for them.

Sony has definitely lost NA with the Kinect launch this Fall. They can only hope that we Europeans buy enough PS3s to sway back sales in their favor.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Lagspike_exe said:
Sony has definitely lost NA with the Kinect launch this Fall. They can only hope that we Europeans buy enough PS3s to sway back sales in their favor.

Europe is definitely their strongest market. The Q4 reports will be interesting to see.
 
apana said:
The problem is Sony tries to take the best of what everyone has already done and put it into one box. People are no longer interested in that type of console, but it worked for PS1 and PS2.
It was a great strategy in the beginning when that was pretty much the best/cheapest way to get a Bluray player. Now I'm not so sure.
 

Retrocide

Member
Gravijah said:
I think it's sort of expected for a console to do "everything" these days.
The it's does everything strategy has put Sony in the position it is today. It cost like $800 to build the original model PS3. Build the next system with 2X the power but launch it at $299 and Sony can regain it's former glory.
 
Lagspike_exe said:
Sony has definitely lost NA with the Kinect launch this Fall. They can only hope that we Europeans buy enough PS3s to sway back sales in their favor.
This was apparent from 2007 on. If Europe fails, Sony fails. It's just that simple.
 

AniHawk

Member
Nirolak said:
Getting first on the scene with some very strong multiplayer titles next generation would be a really smart move for them.

They seem to be going all-out this year. Naughty Dog, Insomniac, Jaffe's guys, Team Ico, Evolution Studios, Guerilla, Sucker Punch/Foster City, and Media Molecule all have games hitting this year. And Sony Bend's probably making a PSP2 game. How many would be ready for a 2012 PS4 launch? I'm thinking San Diego Studios, North West Studio Group (Wipeout guys? ...if they aren't working on a PSP2 game), and maybe Media Molecule. And uh, getting PD on board for a launch 2 years away seems like a pipe dream, but they could get something out early 2013 ala GT3.

Anyway, seems like they might have already missed the boat if Microsoft plans on launching 2013 and not next year.
 

szaromir

Banned
Gravijah said:
"SONY COPIED MOTION CONTROLS FROM NINTENDO"

"NO THEY DIDN'T"
Sony is the origin of everything.
The it's does everything strategy has put Sony in the position it is today. It cost like $800 to build the original model PS3. Build the next system with 2X the power but launch it at $299 and Sony can regain it's former glory.
They no longer have the brand power advantage.
 

Gravijah

Member
Retrocide said:
Build the next system with 2X the power but launch it at $299 and Sony can regain it's former glory.

I dunno if it's that simple. Plus, wouldn't that put the PS4 and PSP2 at around the same price (hell, might the PSP2 be even more expensive)?
 
Retrocide said:
The it's does everything strategy has put Sony in the position it is today. It cost like $800 to build the original model PS3. Build the next system with 2X the power but launch it at $299 and Sony can regain it's former glory.
The Playstation name, at least in the US, doesn't carry that much weight anymore.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
AniHawk said:
They seem to be going all-out this year. Naughty Dog, Insomniac, Jaffe's guys, Team Ico, Evolution Studios, Guerilla, Sucker Punch/Foster City, and Media Molecule all have games hitting this year. And Sony Bend's probably making a PSP2 game. How many would be ready for a 2012 PS4 launch? I'm thinking San Diego Studios, North West Studio Group (Wipeout guys? ...if they aren't working on a PSP2 game), and maybe Media Molecule. And uh, getting PD on board for a launch 2 years away seems like a pipe dream, but they could get something out early 2013 ala GT3.

Anyway, seems like they might have already missed the boat if Microsoft plans on launching 2013 and not next year.
I can't really imagine them getting out in 2012 given their output. My guess would be Fall 2013 at the earliest.

We're also not seeing any rumors from third parties about PS4 hardware, and they would definitely have to be informed around a year and a half in advance if they want any kind of quality to their early generation games.

That said, I can't really imagine them getting out later than Fall 2013 either given their slowdown in sales in both NA and Japan. I don't think they want a less harsh version of the PSP situation where their platform is only really selling well in Europe.
 
If Sony were going to copy something about motion controls, they probably should have considered the following:

- Software
- Commitment
- Advertising

Whether Sony copied the idea or not is irrelevant - or rather, who the fuck cares. They didn't follow through very well and, in a sales thread, that's the key point. Of all the motion solutions out there, Sony's is probably the best, but they're considered the sideshow in the market.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Gravijah said:
I think it's sort of expected for a console to do "everything" these days.

Wii says no. And guess what's winning.

Look, it might be "sort of expected" but you have to look at who is doing the expecting, and whoever it is, whether industry analysts, marketing departments etc etc, it isn't the mass consumers - who probably already have twice as many DVD drives as they really need.
 

Gravijah

Member
phisheep said:
Wii says no. And guess what's winning.

Look, it might be "sort of expected" but you have to look at who is doing the expecting, and whoever it is, whether industry analysts, marketing departments etc etc, it isn't the mass consumers - who probably already have twice as many DVD drives as they really need.

Yeah, but even though the Wii cannot play DVDs you can browse the internet, check out your photos, listen to mp3s (? can't remember), etc. It might not be able to do every single thing, but most consoles are expected to do quite a few different things these days. To succeed, though, you have to differentiate yourself in the market like the Wii or even the 360 has.
 
Retrocide said:
The it's does everything strategy has put Sony in the position it is today. It cost like $800 to build the original model PS3. Build the next system with 2X the power but launch it at $299 and Sony can regain it's former glory.

The pain of the situation now is that if MS, Sony, or Nintendo do not do what the other does next time around the developer base will be fractured again. It was luck that the 360 and PS3 were essentially on the same level that games could be cross ported while the Wii had its own software base.

If next time around it turns into a 3 way game of each system being very different expect the third place loser to be a big loser.
 

Sipowicz

Banned
there's always this talk about sony copying things, but a lot of the times they perfect them in the process as with dual shock. the new back touchpad on the psp2 could do the same thing for touchscreen technology

with the move it doesn't matter if they thought of it in 1972. without nintendo they wouldn't have had the balls to release it. now that they have the software is completely underwhelming and in real world terms it's just a wiimotion+ knockoff with better motion sensing and worse pointer functionality. oh and a camera

if they'd have perfected the eyetoy and released it as a pack in with the ps3 they would have minted it this gen. as it was they left that to microsoft so they've got jack shit left
 

AniHawk

Member
Nirolak said:
I can't really imagine them getting out in 2012 given their output. My guess would be Fall 2013 at the earliest.

We're also not seeing any rumors from third parties about PS4 hardware, and they would definitely have to be informed around a year and a half in advance if they want any kind of quality to their early generation games.

That said, I can't really imagine them getting out later than Fall 2013 either given their slowdown in sales in both NA and Japan. I don't think they want a less harsh version of the PSP situation where their platform is only really selling well in Europe.

That's going to make for a rough 2012 and especially 2013 then. Microsoft looks to be content on riding the wave out until 2013 too with the success of Kinect, but I think they're in a position where they could have launched 2012 if Kinect was a failure.

I think Nintendo's "done" for this generation after Zelda. A lot of studios making 3DS games doesn't leave a lot of time to be spared, but they'd have enough people working for a decent launch in 2012 or launch window (unless Tokyo, NDCube, Retro, EAD 2, EAD 4, and Monolith are all working on 3DS/Wii stuff at the time).
 

Dabanton

Member
Warm Machine said:
The pain of the situation now is that if MS, Sony, or Nintendo do not do what the other does next time around the developer base will be fractured again. It was luck that the 360 and PS3 were essentially on the same level that games could be cross ported while the Wii had its own software base.

If next time around it turns into a 3 way game of each system being very different expect the third place loser to be a big loser.

Yep the moneyhats would probably have to come out again. To guarantee loyalty.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Gravijah said:
Yeah, but even though the Wii cannot play DVDs you can browse the internet, check out your photos, listen to mp3s (? can't remember), etc. It might not be able to do every single thing, but most consoles are expected to do quite a few different things these days. To succeed, though, you have to differentiate yourself in the market like the Wii or even the 360 has.

It can. But did it need to? I doubt it. Level of use of these things is pretty low.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo's next offering be far more focussed on gaming and be far less featured than the Wii even. Probably, yet again, against the grain. And probably, again, winning.
 

Gravijah

Member
phisheep said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo's next offering be far more focussed on gaming and be far less featured than the Wii even. Probably, yet again, against the grain. And probably, again, winning.


Part of me really hopes so.
 

Opiate

Member
Warm Machine said:
The pain of the situation now is that if MS, Sony, or Nintendo do not do what the other does next time around the developer base will be fractured again. It was luck that the 360 and PS3 were essentially on the same level that games could be cross ported while the Wii had its own software base.

If next time around it turns into a 3 way game of each system being very different expect the third place loser to be a big loser.

I'm not sure "luck" is the term I'd use. Both Microsoft and Sony followed the obvious historical pattern of generational upgrades: better graphics, larger storage medium and/or more storage, same baseline controller (dual analogs). Unless you're suggesting that they both came up with that basic strategy coincidentally. It's the same reason the Xbox/PS2/GC were all reasonably similar.

The real hiccup is the Wii, and following from that, the future hiccup is that the Wii was hugely successful, and that encourages Sony/MS to reject the "traditional" strategy in the future as well. Microsoft has all but explicitly stated that they have abandoned that approach: not only do we have the Kinect, but they have stated that they will not be loss leading platforms in the future.
 

Opiate

Member
Kagari said:
Europe is definitely their strongest market. The Q4 reports will be interesting to see.

Q3, I believe you mean. Since we're operating on FYs here. Oct-Dec is Q3 for Sony.

I think this seems impossible to people, but it's entirely plausible that the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide last quarter (Oct-Dec). I wouldn't be surprised if it went the other way, either, but I don't think people realize just how regional the 360 is. It's a very US/UK centric phenomenon. However, if you were gonna pick two territories to win, those would be they: I suppose if I had to put rough odds on it, I'd say 60/40 chance the 360 outsells the PS3 this quarter.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
AniHawk said:
That's going to make for a rough 2012 and especially 2013 then. Microsoft looks to be content on riding the wave out until 2013 too with the success of Kinect, but I think they're in a position where they could have launched 2012 if Kinect was a failure.

I think Nintendo's "done" for this generation after Zelda. A lot of studios making 3DS games doesn't leave a lot of time to be spared, but they'd have enough people working for a decent launch in 2012 or launch window (unless Tokyo, NDCube, Retro, EAD 2, EAD 4, and Monolith are all working on 3DS/Wii stuff at the time).
Yeah, I don't think it's ideal, but given their current circumstances, I think it's about the best they can do.

I suspect the remaining years of the PS3 to be used to launch stuff like Guerrilla's new IP, Santa Monica's new IP(s), and help try to build their smaller franchises like MotorStorm and LittleBigPlanet among gamers who are more hardware price sensitive.

I suspect Sony wants to get larger titles like Uncharted 4, Gran Turismo 6, and Killzone 4 out early next generation to help push the console and/or grow the series, so I don't expect to see new entries this generation for any of those. Out of that list, I realize that Killzone isn't a very big seller, but given Guerrilla's technical expertise, I expect Sony wants it out as a graphical showcase and to try and position it as their flagship FPS series.

Series that aren't huge sellers like Infamous, but are still out in the second half of this year I'm less sure about. It's kind of a hard decision on whether to release a new entry with the bigger PS3 install base (perhaps even after the PS4 is out barring a very short development cycle), or to give them extended development cycles and try to grow them with an earlier PS4 release.

But yeah, from that perspective, I think Sony's in pretty alright shape going into next generation if they're shooting for a 2013 launch, but I agree with you that 2013's PS3 sales probably won't look super amazing.

As for Nintendo, I agree with you, but they are a bit harder to predict.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Opiate said:
I'm not sure "luck" is the term I'd use. Both Microsoft and Sony followed the obvious historical pattern of generational upgrades: better graphics, larger storage medium and/or more storage, same baseline controller (dual analogs). Unless you're suggesting that they both came up with that basic strategy coincidentally. It's the same reason the Xbox/PS2/GC were all reasonably similar.

The real hiccup is the Wii, and following from that, the future hiccup is that the Wii was hugely successful, and that encourages Sony/MS to reject the "traditional" strategy in the future as well. Microsoft has all but explicitly stated that they have abandoned that approach: not only do we have the Kinect, but they have stated that they will not be loss leading platforms in the future.

It's curious, and wasn't luck. It will be interesting to see which way they jump next time around. Taking an extreme punt:

Sony, which always relies on technology spinoffs, will go heavily for 3D and remain a one-box approach.

Microsoft, which after all in money-making terms is a network with some boxes attached, will buy Onlive and rebrand it Kinect OnLive.

Nintendo, having by now already taken over the family living room (as opposed to MS and Sony who tried instead to 'redefine the living room' to be whatever they wanted it to be) will move outside to social networking, but real face-to-face social networking unlike the pretend sort we have now. 3DS is that start of that. There's more to come.
 

TheOddOne

Member
Nirolak said:
I suspect Sony wants to get larger titles like Uncharted 4, Gran Turismo 6, and Killzone 4 out early next generation to help push the console and/or grow the series, so I don't expect to see new entries this generation for any of those. Out of that list, I realize that Killzone isn't a very big seller, but given Guerrilla's technical expertise, I expect Sony wants it out as a graphical showcase and to try and position it as their flagship FPS series.
I think will still see those titles this gen, if you look at their roster per year its pretty much guaranteed.
 

legend166

Member
Zoe said:
http://worldwideintertubes.com/2010...playstation-move-with-sonys-dr-richard-marks/


Did the final release depend on the Wii's success? Sure, why not. But to claim that people were forced to drop their prestigious Cell R&D in order to copy the Wii would be completely false.


If you don't think that the Move was a direct result on the success of the Wii, then I don't know what to tell you. It's as clear as day, not matter how many "bububu they've been working on it for ages!" videos people produce.


This doesn't mean Sony is some horrible, idea stealing company or anything ridiculous like that. Companies follow other companies all the time.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
TheOddOne said:
I think will still see those titles this gen, if you look at their roster per year its pretty much guaranteed.
The time yearly rosters are most likely to change is when we're near a generational switch though.

For example, say my speculation is right and that the PS4 launches in Fall 2013. Given a two year development cycle, Sony can either launch Uncharted 4 on the PS3 at the exact same time, they can make it a PS4 launch title, or they can give it an extra year and make it the major Fall title for 2014.

The first one heavily distracts from the PS4's launch, the second and third are both helpful to the PS4 instead of the platform they're moving away from.
 

TheOddOne

Member
Nirolak said:
The time yearly rosters are most likely to change is when we're near a generational switch though.

For example, say my speculation is right and that the PS4 launches in Fall 2013. Given a two year development cycle, Sony can either launch Uncharted 4 on the PS3 at the exact same time, they can make it a PS4 launch title, or they can give it an extra year and make it the major Fall title for 2014.

The first one heavily distracts from the PS4's launch, the second and third are both helpful to the PS4 instead of the platform they're moving away from.
This... kinda makes sense.
 

AniHawk

Member
TheOddOne said:
I think will still see those titles this gen, if you look at their roster per year its pretty much guaranteed.

I think GT6 would be an ideal choice for a PS4 launch title or launch window title. One, it's still a big franchise, and two, it could give the series a boost and keep it the megafranchise I'm sure Sony still wants it to be.

Uncharted 4... well, Uncharted's a big franchise, but I'm not sure if ND will be making anymore games this gen outside of Uncharted 3 and Uncharted: Drake X-Kart Racing, and that should be a relatively small endeavor. Regardless, something tells me Naughty Dog will be focusing on a new franchise next generation while the Uncharted series will still get entries on the PSP2 and maybe PS3 from other studios.

Guerilla will probably also have a PS4 game like Nirolak suggests. If there's any 2013 FPS for the PS3, it might fall on Insomniac's shoulders.
 

Zoe

Member
legend166 said:
If you don't think that the Move was a direct result on the success of the Wii, then I don't know what to tell you. It's as clear as day, not matter how many "bububu they've been working on it for ages!" videos people produce.


This doesn't mean Sony is some horrible, idea stealing company or anything ridiculous like that. Companies follow other companies all the time.

I never said that the Wii didn't have any influence on the Move's release. I was taking offense at this:

Kenka said:
Imagine the poor R&D guys how were asked one day to copy what Nintendo did. Those guys worked on CELL for years. It must have broken their heart.

1) the idea that Move R&D would somehow be beneath Cell R&D, 2) it's laughable to think that Sony wouldn't have multiple teams of R&D working on many ideas, and 3) that they would have put all of this together in under 3 years
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
AniHawk said:
I think GT6 would be an ideal choice for a PS4 launch title or launch window title. One, it's still a big franchise, and two, it could give the series a boost and keep it the megafranchise I'm sure Sony still wants it to be.

Uncharted 4... well, Uncharted's a big franchise, but I'm not sure if ND will be making anymore games this gen outside of Uncharted 3 and Uncharted: Drake X-Kart Racing, and that should be a relatively small endeavor. Regardless, something tells me Naughty Dog will be focusing on a new franchise next generation while the Uncharted series will still get entries on the PSP2 and maybe PS3 from other studios.

Guerilla will probably also have a PS4 game like Nirolak suggests. If there's any 2013 FPS for the PS3, it might fall on Insomniac's shoulders.
Actually, Naughty Dog has been quite insistent that they want to make a lot of Uncharted games: http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=282318

One interesting note about Guerrilla though is that they do have a new IP, so they could launch that as an early 2013 PS3 title and Killzone 4 as a 2014 PS4 title.
 
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