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[Zoramon089]

There isn't enough talk about tons of people being wrong when they predicted EM would bomb

 

[Why For?]

But Sony makes money off the software...?

PS3 software is actually selling really well down here as it is.

Most multiplats down here sell better on PS3. Not by a lot, but still better. We seem to buck the trend that happens in the US/UK.

But as I said, given the Top selling consoles (DS, Wii PS2) sell around 2-2.5 mill lifetime, Sony having already given away over 100K PS3s down here is pretty bad, given they're probably not even anywhere near 1 million consoles here yet.

360 only just hit a mill, and it's a head of the PS3 here.

But we were talking about Console sales, and piracy will help the PS3 sell more consoles, but maybe less software.

 

[GeoramA]

Yeah, while the 2011 lineup looks impressive I don't think it will translate that much in sales.

Not when the entry point is still $299.

But at this point, I doubt Sony cares about marketshare in NA anymore. It's a lost cause. They just want to make money on it.

 

[CreatureX3]

Yes, people are not buying PS3 because of Kevin Butler ads...

Yup. Whoever decided at Sony to use Kevin Butler to sell the Move, should be fired. :lol

 

[Vinci]

Well it certainly doesn't appear to be helping them sell more consoles...which is the whole point of an ad campaign.

Although I guess you could argue that the sales would be worse if there was no Kevin Butler?

I don't think you could argue that, no. Kevin Butler ads, while funny, basically serve the express purpose of making PS3 owners feel better about their purchase.

 

[Kenka]

Again for the new page, the Just Dance 2 numbers are likely right but the calculation is wrong. My method was flawed.





Please remove them. It was just too big of a mistake.

 

[Mrbob]

Let's say the 360 drops 20% next year, and 20% the year after that. That's a fairly precipitous drop, so I'm being conservative here. That would mean that in 2012, as the 360 passes its eighth Christmas, the 360 would be selling ~4.4 million units, or just 300k short of its average totals in year 2-4.

And all of this is assuming the 360 has peaked, which may not be the case.

MS hasn't even messed with price points either in about 3 years. System is still at $199/$299. MS perfected the Apple method of giving you updated hardware at the same price and netting big sales. MS still has the $149/$249 and $99/$199. I don't see sales slowing down significantly anytime soon.

 

[zero_suit]

There isn't enough talk about tons of people being wrong when they predicted EM would bomb

That, and some people thought the 360 would beat the Wii...

 

[lowrider007]

By any measurement, GT5 did not perform to expectations. All hyperbole aside, could you at least agree with that? I agree others are exaggerating the extent of its drop, but it has definitely had a drop in prominence according to this turnout.

Agreed, but I don't think that makes it a failure, and I've also already said that I agree that critically it should of done better but I will not concede that it is a financial failure.

 

[apana]

I predicted Wii would be at 3 million but I feel that is very unlikely now. Probably closer to 2.4.

 

[gregor7777]

The continuing success of Just Dance makes me cry.

I'm personally responsible for at least 3 or 4 copies. I've had several Just Dance 2 parties.

 

[Why For?]

Not when the entry point is still $299.

But at this point, I doubt Sony cares about marketshare in NA anymore. It's a lost cause. They just want to make money on it.

Whcih is what I've been saying for aaaages that that's all Sony should care about now. Not some mythical fanboy race.

Nintendo showed that there's nothing wrong with a profitable 3rd, and Sony should concentrate on that. I mean, when was the last time '3rd place' hit 50 mill plus? (what I assume Sony will end up with for PS3)

 

[Nirolak]

Again for the new page, the Just Dance 2 numbers are likely right but the calculation is wrong. My method was flawed.





Please remove them. It was just too big of a mistake.

That's okay, we removed it already.

 

[Mojojo]

I hope 2011 gets better for PS3. They are pushing out every goddamn franchise they got this year.

um beside Uncharted 3, does Sony really have any exclusive system seller on the horizon?
I don't expect any growth from their foray to the casual crowd with Move in 2011.. Last Guardian will probably do as well as ICO or shadow of the colossus ...
And with a new console (3DS) this year that will probably take a big chunk of families' gaming budget..

 

[Balb]

nvm I'm blind

 

[Majine]

I doubt GT5 is a financial failure since it's doing just fine in EU, it's constantly in the Top 5 of every list in the PAL threads

 

[Vinci]

Agreed, but I don't think that makes it a failure, and I've also already said that I agree that critically it should of done better but I will not concede that it is a financial failure.

On an average metric, hell no, it's not a failure. I mean, I don't know how much Sony spent developing the game, but I doubt it'll come anywhere close to a commercial failure from a bottom line standpoint. But as Sony's biggest IP ever, it underperforming expectations is not a good thing.

 

[apana]

PS3 will have a rough 2011, eventhough Last Guardian will do better than people imagine.

 

[Paracelsus]

um beside Uncharted 3, does Sony really have any exclusive system seller on the horizon?

Sony hasn't had a system seller since MGS4, and even that didn't help much (one month only)

 

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

Interesting that NBA2K11 outsold Madden for the year.

what ?

Annual 2010 Top 10 Games (New Physical Retail only; across all platforms incl. PC) Rank Publisher
02. Madden NFL 11 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP) ELECTRONIC ARTS
10. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC) TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE

 

[see5harp]

That, and some people thought the 360 would beat the Wii...

Well MS was on a pretty good roll. That and a Epic Mickey bomb after average reviews seemed possible to me.

 

[Shurs]

Interesting that NBA2K11 outsold Madden for the year.

Huh?

 

[YYZ]

Actually, I was talking about game sales being in trouble for Sony, not hardware. How many months have had a first-party Sony game in the top 10 since its launch? I think hardware sales will be just fine and more appealing now as mentioned.

 

[plufim]

Agreed, but I don't think that makes it a failure, and I've also already said that I agree that critically it should of done better but I will not concede that it is a financial failure.

The question for Sony becomes: has it performed well enough to justify its' astronomical budget and time in development?

The budget of GT5 could have made 3 or more AAA games, in less time. Would the combined sales of those 3 exceed 8 million? If they included more God Of Wars and Uncharteds, then yeah.

 

[Kenka]

That's okay, we removed it already.

Thanks to not take it in account.

Spoiler

I won't dare to post in this thread anymore

 

[Vinci]

Actually, I was talking about game sales being in trouble for Sony, not hardware. How many months have had a first-party Sony game in the top 10 since its launch? I think hardware sales will be just fine and more appealing now as mentioned.

Then obviously Sony's software woes have nothing to do with piracy.

 

[V_Arnold]

Agreed, but I don't think that makes it a failure, and I've also already said that I agree that critically it should of done better but I will not concede that it is a financial failure.

Yeah, and notice how I did not say it was a failure. Well, it was after all, this should have been THE game to top charts both in US, EU and in Japan. It basically failed to perform well in 2 out of 3 markets, we can all agree on this.

It is not about what the profits are or what the sales will be 3-4 years down the road, with bundles and Platinum versions adding more sales. It is about the POTENTIAL this game had.
That is about it.

The question for Sony becomes: has it performed well enough to justify its' astronomical budget and time in development?

And another very important question: how can Sony create a franchise with the power to actually TOP charts, let alone stay in the top 10 for more than one month, consecutively. They have a lot of great IP's, but Gran Turismo was supposed to have Halo-level of sales, at least. In the US aswell. I would be worried if I were Sony, because this franchise will be still going in 2020, on Ps4 or Ps5, or whatever its name will be.

 

[FrankT]

MS hasn't even messed with price points either in about 3 years. System is still at $199/$299. MS perfected the Apple method of giving you updated hardware at the same price and netting big sales. MS still has the $149/$249 and $99/$199. I don't see sales slowing down significantly anytime soon.

Well without a price drop this year the numbers YoY likely will not look so hot. They would have to do more than 500GB HDD to keep the points. Though I was certainly in the price drop camp before the 360s. Depending on stock the first half of the year could be strong. Still I've said we wouldn't see another Xbox before fall 2013 and I stick by that, which would give a 10 year span easy. Should hit over 62M million next spring and 80-100M by life end.

I predicted Wii would be at 3 million but I feel that is very unlikely now. Probably closer to 2.4.

Where is the number is all I want to know.

That, and some people thought the 360 would beat the Wii...

Well had they not had the stock issues and depending on where that Wii number comes in it may have been possible. Still depends on that number.

 

[Why For?]

PS3 will have a rough 2011, eventhough Last Guardian will do better than people imagine.

Here we go.

 

[3rdman]

Does anyone know what the production costs for GT5 were?

 

[Nirolak]

Thanks to not take it in account.

Spoiler

I won't dare to post in this thread anymore

Oh no, your speculations are valuable.

It's fine to make mistakes.

 

[Kifimbo]

Happy for Spector his game found an audience. Even if it's not a great game (not even a good game according to some).

 

[apana]

Here we go.

Not really a crazy prediction at this point.

 

[Huevos de Oro]

The question for Sony becomes: has it performed well enough to justify its' astronomical budget and time in development?

That will depend on its sales performance over time. I was under the impression that GT games were slow burners at retail.

 

[LCfiner]

Does anyone know what the production costs for GT5 were?

Truespeed had a pretty good handle on it...

 

[Saiyar]

Does anyone know what the production costs for GT5 were?

$60 million plus whatever the 8 month delay cost them.

 

[WillyFive]

Hurray for Epic Mickey!

 

[Why For?]

Not really a crazy prediction at this point.

'Better than people imagine'.

Nice. So I'd wager most sane people would imagine around 50K? So better than that is what? 100k?

Nice.

Last Guardian will only survive if Sony backs the shit out of it like they did Heavy Rain.

 

[plufim]

Does anyone know what the production costs for GT5 were?

$Texas

 

[antonz]

That will depend on its sales performance over time. I was under the impression that GT games were slow burners at retail.

GT5 will end up getting bundled for like 4 years which will meet goals through compelled ownership rather than desired ownership

 

[sangreal]

Nintendo sold more than 2.5 million Nintendo DS systems and more than 2.3 million Wii systems in December alone, bringing their lifetime U.S.

http://www.pr-inside.com/nintendo-news-nintendo-emerges-with-r2353051.htm

 

[Road]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/01/2010-video-game-sales-from-npd.html

Wii - 2.36 million
PS3 - 1.21 million

360 - 1.86 million

 

[hamchan]

The question for Sony becomes: has it performed well enough to justify its' astronomical budget and time in development?

The budget of GT5 could have made 3 or more AAA games, in less time. Would the combined sales of those 3 exceed 8 million? If they included more God Of Wars and Uncharteds, then yeah.

Didn't prologue cover a large amount of the budget?

 

[user_nat]

GT5 will end up getting bundled for like 4 years which will meet goals through compelled ownership rather than desired ownership

Just because you got the game free in a bundle doesn't mean that you didn't want the game.

I got both GT3 and 4 in bundles, I wanted both of them.

 

[apana]

'Better than people imagine'.

Nice. So I'd wager most sane people would imagine around 50K? So better than that is what? 100k?

Nice.

Last Guardian will only survive if Sony backs the shit out of it like they did Heavy Rain.

:lol Oh you were talking about the Last Guardian prediction. It's just a hunch on my part, for some reason I feel this game has a broader appeal.

 

[Vinci]

PS3 will have a rough 2011, eventhough Last Guardian will do better than people imagine.

What a vague standard.

$Texas

Um... considering it's made by a Japanese dev? No. It won't be as high as it would've been given it were developed in NA or Europe.

 

[V_Ben]

Hey, those PS3 sales aren't bad! Only an 11% drop from last year.

 

[plufim]

GT5 will end up getting bundled for like 4 years which will meet goals through compelled ownership rather than desired ownership

And bundled games do not generate as much profit for Sony.

 

[Saiyar]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/01/2010-video-game-sales-from-npd.html

Wii - 2.36 million
PS3 - 1.21 million

Looks like I over estimated for the Wii and DS in my prediction. Pretty close with the PS3 though.

 

[zero_suit]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/01/2010-video-game-sales-from-npd.html

Wii - 2.36 million
PS3 - 1.21 million

360 - 1.86 million

So, the Wii beat the 360 in YTD sales.