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NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]

foxbeldin

Member
My predictions vs the results.

PS4 : 1690 vs 1582
XB1 : 1480 vs 1376
WIU : 480 vs 463

Can't believe i added 100k to ps4 and xb1 in the last days. I should have trusted my guts, i could have won the biggest month of the year. :(
 

Square2015

Member
3DS HW ?
Dragon Quest Heroes ?
Tales of Zestiria ?
FFXIII - Lighting Returns LTD ?
Final Fantasy X| X-2 HD LTD (PS3, Vita, PS4) ?
 

barit

Member
Good grief! The amount of spin in MS's PR always makes my head spin too!

Best thing is always: Played more hours than in 2014. Made more digital sales than in 2014. No shit Sherlock, maybe because more Xbones are out in the wild than in 2014?! Just lol. No real milestones, no gamesales numbers, no hardware numbers. Why even do a PR statement if you have nothing to say?
 

RexNovis

Banned
I'm hoping we will get some LTD figures for Bloodborne, Halo 5 and NDC at some point. Do we have any reliable estimates through November for these games?

Lots of people seem to want Until Dawn numbers as well.
 
Do you have Xbox One and PS4 console sales for Canada?

Yes, I have data for all four regions.


Why is it that 3DS figures are always such a sticking point every results thread? It's the last figure we get every single time and it usually has the least concrete information. It's so weird! Why? What reason is there for this extra secrecy surrounding 3DS?

One more comment, and then I'm really going to sleep, I swear.


Consoles are the relevant hardware business in the U.S. Video Game Market.

That's why, for the parties interested in my data, there is a focus on comparing the spectrum of the console business (PlayStation 4 + Xbox One + Wii U + Xbox 360 + PlayStation 3) rather than include irrelevant businesses.

Unfortunately, the Portable business is rather esoteric and remains weak sales-wise the United States, so there is far less focus on it within the industry.

If there were a Portable console with the same level of success as the PlayStation 4, I'm sure we would give it far more attention.

As an aside, it is interesting how the converse is true in Japan, where the 3DS and PlayStation Vita reign supreme.
 

slapnuts

Junior Member
The following data release is sourced from The NPD Group's U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Sales Channel) report for December 2015.

All data disclosed to Neo GAF is fundamentally immaterial to the business of The NPD Group, Inc.



NPD's monthly point-of-sale data reports on U.S. Games Industry sales occurring from new physical purchases at retail which is the largest channel for games sales, but does not represent 100% of industry sales; it does not account for consumer purchases made via digital distribution, used game sales, subscriptions, mobiles, rentals, or social network games. NPD's Games Market Dynamics: U.S. is issued quarterly and is NPD's official estimate of the consumer spend on the industry and it does include estimate of the size of these other monetization methods.


Last Month:

U.S. November 2015 Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales:

Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 4': 1539K units (+85.3% year-over-year)
Microsoft Corp's 'Xbox One': 1296K units (+5.3% year-over-year)
Nintendo's 'Wii U': 240K units (+0.1% year-over-year)
Microsoft Corp's 'Xbox 360': 72K units (-76.5% year-over-year)
Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 3': 23K units (-74.1% year-over-year)



This Month:

U.S. December 2015 Video Games Console Hardware Unit Sales:

Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 4': 1582K units (+48.5% year-over-year)
Microsoft Corp's 'Xbox One': 1376K units (+6.1% year-over-year)
Nintendo's 'Wii U': 463K units (-19.5% year-over-year)
Microsoft Corp's 'Xbox 360': 139K units (-55.0% year-over-year)
Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 3': 29K units (-83.3% year-over-year)


Here is a handy bar graph produced for your convenience:


VuBI3GY.png




October 2015 post:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=185308652&postcount=2812

November 2015 post:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=188792408&postcount=2307

That's whats up! Thanks man

PS4 is rock'n hardcore now
 

RexNovis

Banned
One more comment, and then I'm really going to sleep, I swear.


Consoles are the relevant hardware business in the U.S. Video Game Market.

That's why, for the parties interested in my data, there is a focus on comparing the spectrum of the console business (PlayStation 4 + Xbox One + Wii U + Xbox 360 + PlayStation 3) rather than include irrelevant businesses.

Unfortunately, the Portable business is rather esoteric and remains weak sales-wise the United States, so there is far less focus on it within the industry.

If there were a Portable console with the same level of success as the PlayStation 4, I'm sure we would give it far more attention.

Oh well cheers for the explanation. So, since it's considered esoteric, is it just not tracked by NPD at all? If so then we should definitely remove it from our predictions slate this year.

As an aside, it is interesting how the converse is true in Japan, where the 3DS and PlayStation Vita reign supreme.

As someone currently living in Japan I completely agree. It's been really fascinating seeing and experiencing the cultural zeitgeist around gaming in this country.

Anyways thanks again for participating! Sorry we kept you up so late. Sleep well!
 

NolbertoS

Member
Same old NDP, PS4 is king, Xbox One 2nd, GAF LOL at Xbox One sales, Wii U no pulse :( I miss ZhugeEX graphs, Creams pies anf Aqua's numbers
 
Oh well cheers for the explanation. So, since it's considered esoteric, is it just not tracked by NPD at all? If so then we should definitely remove it from our predictions slate this year.



As someone currently living in Japan I completely agree. It's been really fascinating seeing and experiencing the cultural zeitgeist around gaming in this country.

Every Console and Portable system is tracked down to the individual unit, including abject failures such as the "Ouya."
 

slapnuts

Junior Member
PS4 is winning by a too thin of a margin, though.

Next gen MS will take back US for sure, Sony did not capitalize enough on MS mistakes this gen, and next gen MS will not have the crappiest console reveal ever (aka XB1).

Why people make U.S.A out to be the standard still amazes me. I feel world wide sales is the true and only standard and PS4 is by far smoking X1 in overall sales. Granted this is a U.S. only numbers thread but to take U.S. sales as the standard and final guage of how well each console is doing is simply short sighted, imho.
 
NPD includes Canada, doesn't it?

I've always thought so, like NA covers Canada but the threads in recent weeks about Tomb Raider and 18 million suggest they're separate.

NDP_Mulcair can you say if the US NPD figures cover Canada, so when you say this game sold 200k, does that mean Canada is included and same for the consoles like here.

U.S. November 2015 Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales:

Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 4': 1539K units (+85.3% year-over-year

Even if it's always combined, would be nice to know the breakdown. If separate then it would clear up a lot of speculation to the Canada market and how much it's adding to the hardware units sold worldwide and software.

What is the install base of the Xbox One and PS4 in Canada?
 

donny2112

Member
You know Donny I've been wondering lately why we include 3DS in our predictions. It dies seem like less and less people care about or track its sales. It's also the only handheld system being predicted. What's the reasoning behind its inclusion.

Because it sells~100K or more most months. Therefore, it's 1) relevant and 2) pretty statistically stable/useful for predictions.

On that note, plan on dropping Wii U from monthly predictions in 2016. If we still get results for it, that'd be great, but it sells so little that a relatively minor absolute difference (e.g. 20K) could end up being a huge percentage difference (e.g. 50% off). Was hoping it'd have a better 2015 after 2014 ended up, and I don't like only having 3 systems in the results (too much importance on each system, in my opinion). However, just can't justify it with it selling so little each month resulting in huge swings in the percentage diffs for it.

Hopefully NX comes out in 2016 to bring it back to 4 systems, but if/until it does, we'll just have the 3 systems predicting for 2016. (-_-) Edit: Annual predictions would still include Wii U, as we'll likely be able to get numbers for it, but the monthlies would not include it.

It's just over 580k

Is that a software number or a 3DS number?
Hope it's 3DS, but unclear antecedent!
 

RexNovis

Banned
Every Console and Portable system is tracked down to the individual unit, including abject failures such as the "Ouya."

Ah ok thanks for clearing that up. Ouya really cratered that bad huh? I heard it was a good retro emulator machine. Figured it might sell some units off that premise.

Now go get some shut eye! We will al be here when you wake up :)
well most of us anyway
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Because it sells~100K or more most months. Therefore, it's 1) relevant and 2) pretty statistically stable/useful for predictions.

On that note, plan on dropping Wii U from monthly predictions in 2016. If we still get results for it, that'd be great, but it sells so little that a relatively minor absolute difference (e.g. 20K) could end up being a huge percentage difference (e.g. 50% off). Was hoping it'd have a better 2015 after 2014 ended up, and I don't like only having 3 systems in the results (too much importance on each system, in my opinion). However, just can't justify it with it selling so little each month resulting in huge swings in the percentage diffs for it.

Hopefully NX comes out in 2016 to bring it back to 4 systems, but if/until it does, we'll just have the 3 systems predicting for 2016. (-_-)



Is that a software number or a 3DS number?
Hope it's 3DS, but unclear antecedent!

Cmon Donny, I know I'm pretty whimsical but I thought I was replying pretty well to the general direction the thread was going, your previous post included
 

donny2112

Member
Cmon Donny, I know I'm pretty whimsical but I thought I was replying pretty well to the general direction the thread was going, your previous post included

Okay, on the weight of what most of the preceding questions were vs. what the immediate preceding question was, going with this being 3DS. Thanks!

That also means that GAF Aggregate was almost spot-on for PS4 and XB1, and were 21% low on both Wii U and 3DS for the month. Crazy.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Because it sells~100K or more most months. Therefore, it's 1) relevant and 2) pretty statistically stable/useful for predictions.

Understood. Makes sense. I just wish that people were more forthcoming with the numbers every month.

On that note, plan on dropping Wii U from monthly predictions in 2016. If we still get results for it, that'd be great, but it sells so little that a relatively minor absolute difference (e.g. 20K) could end up being a huge percentage difference (e.g. 50% off). Was hoping it'd have a better 2015 after 2014 ended up, and I don't like only having 3 systems in the results (too much importance on each system, in my opinion). However, just can't justify it with it selling so little each month resulting in huge swings in the percentage diffs for it.

Well I totally understand your reasoning here and I agree with you. However, dropping the WiiU from predictions will ruffle more than a few feathers methinks no matter how logical it would appear to be. I do not envy you having to wade through the inevitable stream of hate and vitriol that would accompany such a change.

Hopefully NX comes out in 2016 to bring it back to 4 systems, but if/until it does, we'll just have the 3 systems predicting for 2016. (-_-)

Morituri te salutant.


Is that a software number or a 3DS number?
Hope it's 3DS, but unclear antecedent!

Exactly why I asked as well haha. Hopefully it is 3DS so we have our complete dataset for the month.

Edit: yep seems like it is 3DS :D
Cheers John!
 

Jumeira

Banned
Why people make U.S.A out to be the standard still amazes me. I feel world wide sales is the true and only standard and PS4 is by far smoking X1 in overall sales. Granted this is a U.S. only numbers thread but to take U.S. sales as the standard and final guage of how well each console is doing is simply short sighted, imho.
US is the biggest and most important market, winning this region sets up these consoles with 3rd parties and marketing deals amongst other things. The others don't hold the same importance.
 

Aceofspades

Banned
January of last year nobody expected Sony to maintain the gap let alone doubling it. Sony have done great job to counter MS aggressive pricing and Halo, Gears combination. This year will be even better with the games and VR.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
It's just over 580k

Makes sense given the decline number we were given somewhat earlier. Thanks! Looks like Vita sold 72.8K or so then (given the 32% decline in portable sales). Actually, that's kind of surprising to think it outsold the PS3 hehe.

Out of curiosity, is Vita YTD less or greater than Wii U December (464K)? I'm guessing under?

Halo not on NPD list in one of the craziest months of the year.

Not good...Not good.
And if you read Harker's comment, Siege almost opened as well as Halo 5 (some ~30K short). Shows you how much Halo has fallen (at least with 5) :/.
 
LTD
Z:MM3D ~ 942
MH4U ~ 458
AC:AHL+ ~ 9
FF:F ~ 93
S.T.E.A.M. ~ 50
XC3D ~ 147
EMD ~ 20
P&D ~ 103
SMT:DS2RB ~ 42
LBX ~ 33
EO2U:TFK ~ 19
AC:HHD ~ 270
Miku ~ 45
SK2:DC ~ 16
Z: TH ~ 312
DBZ: EB ~ 48
Chibi ~ 57
TLOL ~ 31
PSMD ~ 352
YKW ~ 195
SK ~ 27

Kirby ~ 193
MP10 ~ 633
S ~ 849
SMM ~ 944
Yoshi ~ 457
MT: US ~ 67
AC: AF ~ 63
SK ~ 23

Good numbers overall for niche 3DS software, especially Atlus RPGs and Miku; surprised by The Legend of Legacy. Bad performance for LBX, P&D and SK2 (even though it might not be that far from the first entry).

YW sold better in December than November, which is a good sign - but it'd be interesting to see how farther it can go considering 2DS bundles, which are not counted here. Not a smash hit, of course, but at least not a bomb-level such as LBX.

Zelda is a quite strong IP on 3DS; MM3D at a million, and TriForce selling 300k+ in US along shows that. I wonder whether TriForce can reach the million milestone worldwide over time - it sold at least 312k+154k=466k units in US+Japan, and we know portable Zelda tend to have some legs.
 

donny2112

Member
It should not contain Canada, it is branded as US sales data, like for instance in the Sony PR reply.

Exactly. The NPD data in this thread just covers U.S. NPD also tracks Canadian sales, but that's a different subscription not included here.
 
Woolly World is doing very well, as are its wool yoshi's probably.

But I was speaking more of the niche titles that mostly populate the lists. Take LoL, for example, its 31k LTD (NPD) vs. 75k LTD (Japan). That's what I call better than expected considering what the title is, what it was in its major territory, and such.

Similarly, Break Record (enchanced port): 42k LTD (NPD) vs. 75k LTD (Japan).

I believe initial results were with this Miku being the higher selling by a bit (at retail, digital is unknown), but the model for earnings is different so its had to compare.

IIRC, the first Devil Survivor on DS sold 26k units in its first month in US (I'm pretty sure it was below 30k, though). Therefore, I think Record Breaker result is pretty good, considering that digital sales are lacking and might represent a good % of overall sales.

As for Miku, didn't the last PS3 entry sold 16k in its opening?

For P&D? What did GiantBomb do lol?

Also kind of interesting how Yoshi is doing quite well, but I'd say Kirby is lagging behind. Usually I pin these two series as selling pretty similarly to each other (like these 2 games are in Japan), but it seems like Yoshi Woolly World was more popular here (it's adorable, so I can't disagree).

Also I'm kind of thinking Level 5 should try to play the long game with Youkai Watch just like Capcom has been doing with Monster Hunter. Let the TV show settle in (hopefully it gains more traction), and release the 2nd game (which apparently is better than the 1st) and see whether you can slowly grow the franchise.

Kirby is really popular in Western markets but I think that its launch window this time wasn't right. Yoshi had the benefit of releasing close to the holiday season, which is vital for an IP targeted towards a young audience, especially if the platform is not that popular to begin with.
 

Occam

Member
Nice, the gap between PS4 and Xbone is widening.
PS4 sales up 85% in November and nearly 50% in December compared to 2014, while Xbone was outsold in both months and its sales increased by only ~6%. PS4 is on the rise in the US.
 

EvB

Member
Nice, the gap between PS4 and Xbone is widening.
PS4 sales up 85% in November and nearly 50% in December compared to 2014, while Xbone was outsold in both months and its sales increased only by ~6%. PS4 is on the rise in the US.

Nice? Has your Sony stock gone up?
 

EGM1966

Member
Whelp that's that. Trends for this gen have pretty much been solidified I'd say.

Main "shock" for me is Halo 5. I know it sold well enough as an individual title but compared to other numbered Halo titles it's a disappointment and MS (or 343i) must be wondering what they have to do to if the franchise is to return to its former prominence.

Actually "winning" the "main season" NPDs (as defined by MS not Sony) is a huge PR boost for Sony and to do so when Halo 5 hit surely shows were the mass market is US is right now: PS4 best choice with XB1 a decent choice too.

I'm sure XB1 US sales will continue to be decent (and SW too) but any hopes of a turnaround vs their main competitor must surely be all but gone.

The bigger issue for MS I think is ROW. In US things are okay if you remove the PR drive to be 1st. They're a very viable second. UK I'd say while a bit more skewed to PS4 again delivers decent XB1 business.

It's the ROW that really lets XB1 down (Mexico aside I gather) and MS should consider putting more effort there and accepting a decent second place in US and UK.

I think the overall result for them in total would be better and would lay a better foundation for next gen.
 

Fess

Member
Umm, it's pretty close. For R6 it's probebly around 70%.
Pretty close... Probably... That's my point, to my knowledge we really don't have a clue about world-wide sales on all platforms, you could've said 60% or 90% and nobody could prove you wrong without making a guess of their own, which you had to prove wrong by guessing again, etc. Too much guessing for me. :/ And I think the more we keep guessing without questioning the accuracy the less likely is it that we start getting real numbers. It's bad enough that some people even think NPD track digital sales but I get scared when I see people commenting in a way that they believe they track the world-wide sales. :S

Anyhow, is there a reason why we rarely get real numbers? Wouldn't Ubisoft know how many games they've sold, why aren't they releasing the sales figures themselves, wouldn't that be great PR?

But anyway, your guess is that the US and UK retail figures + digital Steamspy figures equals to 70% of the actual world-wide sales in retail and all digital stores for all platforms? Is that for Siege only or all games? Like I said, I can't prove you wrong but it sounds too high imo, or I hope it is anyway :/
 

Mooreberg

is sharpening a shovel and digging a ditch
This goes to show how important bundles and "value" perception are around the holidays. Microsoft had a much stronger lineup of exclusives in 2015 than 2014, in terms of sales potential. But Sony actually made the effort to compete on price for the holidays.

No surprise at the annual top ten being entirely multiplatform games. The market has been going in that direction since Modern Warfare 2. I think it makes the most sense now first party publishing to fill in the gaps on the calendar, and focus on different types of games. No point in competing head to head with third party games of the same genres.
 
US is the biggest and most important market, winning this region sets up these consoles with 3rd parties and marketing deals amongst other things. The others don't hold the same importance.

That is far from the truth .
Marketing deals are done for many reasons .
For eg Sony got the marketing rights for GTA5 and they were getting there ass kick over here last gen .
MS has the marketing rights for FIFA and they getting there ass kick in EU .
 

darkinstinct

...lacks reading comprehension.
Something doesn't jibe here. That's an 800k lead for PS4, but creamsugar said the LTD gap is 1.285m. That'd put the gap for end of 2014 at 485k. That's a lot lower than anyone was estimating back then. So which number is wrong?

The power of digital console sales. ;)
 
LTD diff: 1285

Wow, so the gap has only increased since January 2014 where I believe the LTD diff was 800k.

Sony really nailed the holidays with aplomb in terms of marketing alignments and being aggressive with the price. Kudos to SCEA after their focus on profitability for Holidays 2014.

Now all I need is Until Dawn numbers. Really hope that game is at least close to 500k.
 
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