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NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]

Thank you cream, especially for the Yoshi numbers! I wonder if Yoshi can make it (worldwide) to a million. It will most likely cross the half million bar in NA, but Japan was so weak that Yoshi didn't even pass 100k (but close enough that I think it still has a chance of barely doing it over time).

I remember Yoshi having fairly low numbers in europe too.
It will probably be a crawl to 1 million for Yoshi
 

Welfare

Member
Xbox One 1376k

MoM rise was 6%

YoY rise is 6%

Weekly average

November: 1296k / 4 weeks = 324,000

December: 1376k / 5 weeks = 275,200

PS4 1582k

MoM rise was 3%

YoY rise is 49%

Weekly average

November: 1539k / 4 weeks = 384,750

December: 1582k / 5 weeks = 316,400

Wii U 463k

MoM rise was 93%

YoY drop is 20%

Weekly average

November: 240k / 4 weeks = 60,000

December: 463k / 5 weeks = 92,600
.
 

Fess

Member
So NPD+UK+Steam puts Siege somewhere over 1.2 million in December

Normally that would be considered a great launch but Ubi wanted 7 million out of this game. Wonder what they feel about the numbers
I think you're missing lots of sales with that equation since NPD is US only and UK is UK only and neither shows the digital sales. Aren't you missing uPlay sales too here if you just count Steam figures?
 
I find it funny that NPD is finally coming around to public data when the significance of their reports has drastically fallen due to sales shifting towards digital. All they will really have left to stay relevant is hardware data. The quicker NPD dies the better, fuck them for going in the dark for so many years.
 
I think you're missing lots of sales with that equation since NPD is US only and UK is UK only and neither shows the digital sales. Aren't you missing uPlay sales too here if you just count Steam figures?

Oh of course, I'm in no means trying to imply 1.2 million is its total sales, Im just saying 1.2 is the baseline KNOWN figure for sales volume. In other words a number we can work with which is much better than "who knows"

Just trying to piece some data together for people :)
 

kadotsu

Banned
I think you're missing lots of sales with that equation since NPD is US only and UK is UK only and neither shows the digital sales. Aren't you missing uPlay sales too here if you just count Steam figures?

Digital sales are 20% on average and Steam accounts for the majority of PC game software sales. Even if we fudge the numbers in favor of Siege it still ends up somewhere way below 3 million.
 
I mean in a vacuum I cant see how Siege launch can be anything other than a success. Ubi should not have put that 7 million estimate out there as thats what figures will be compared with, but the actual software itself is a nice number
 

Welfare

Member
Updating this! It's the transition between November and December and comparing the differences in the weekly average. November is 4 weeks, December is 5.

2010

Xbox 360 November: 1370K / 4 = 342,500
Xbox 360 December: 1860K / 5 = 372,000

Weekly average up 9%

PS3 November: 530K / 4 = 132,500
PS3 December: 1210K / 5 = 242,000

Weekly average up 83%

Wii November: 1270K / 4 = 317,500
Wii December: 2360K / 5 = 472,000

Weekly average up 49%

2011

Xbox 360 November: 1700K / 4 = 425,000
Xbox 360 December: 1700K / 5 = 340,000

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 November: 900K / 4 = 225,000
PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000

Weekly average down 16%

Wii November: 860K / 4 = 215,000
Wii December: 1060K / 5 = 212,000

Weekly average down 1%

2012

Xbox 360 November: 1260K / 4 = 315,000
Xbox 360 December: 1400K / 5 = 280,000

Weekly average down 11%

PS3 November: 750K / 4 = 187,500
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000

Weekly average down 32%

Wii November: 420K / 4 = 105,000
Wii December: 475K / 5 = 95,000

Weekly average down 10%

2013
Xbox 360 November: 647K / 4 = 161,750
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 November: 407K / 4 = 101,750
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800

Weekly average down 41%

Wii November: 68K / 4 = 17,000
Wii December: 150K / 5 = 30,000

Weekly average up 76%

Wii U November: 223K / 4 = 55,750
Wii U December: 481K / 5 = 96,200

Weekly average up 73%

2014

Xbox 360 November: 306K / 4 = 76,500
Xbox 360 December: 309K / 5 = 61,800

Weekly average down 19%

Xbox One November: 1231K / 4 = 307,750
Xbox One December: 1297K / 5 = 259,400

Weekly average down 16%

PS3 November: 89K / 4 = 22,250
PS3 December: 174K / 5 = 34,800

Weekly average up 56%

PS4 November: 831K / 4 = 207,750
PS4 December: 1065K / 5 = 213,000

Weekly average up 3%

Wii November: 25K / 4 = 6,250
Wii December: 29K / 5 = 5,800

Weekly average down 7%

Wii U November: 240K / 4 = 60,000
Wii U December: 575K / 5 = 115,000

Weekly average up 92%

2015

Xbox 360 November: 72K / 4 = 18,000
Xbox 360 December: 139K / 5 = 27,800

Weekly average up 54%

Xbox One November: 1296K / 4 = 324,000
Xbox One December: 1376K / 5 = 275,200

Weekly average down 15%

PS3 November: 23K / 4 = 5,750
PS3 December: 29K / 5 = 5,800

Weekly average up 0%

PS4 November: 1539K / 4 = 384,750
PS4 December: 1582K / 5 = 316,400

Weekly average down 18%

Wii DATA INCOMPLETE

Wii U November: 240K / 4 = 60,000
Wii U December: 463K / 5 = 92,600

Weekly average up 54%
 
Rounded to nearest 10k.

YTD 2015

PS4 - 5740K (+23% YoY)
XB1 - 4940K (+13% YoY)
WIU - 1340K (-14% YoY)
Something doesn't jibe here. That's an 800k lead for PS4, but creamsugar said the LTD gap is 1.285m. That'd put the gap for end of 2014 at 485k. That's a lot lower than anyone was estimating back then. So which number is wrong?
 

Petrae

Member
Fascinating stuff. Serves to futher solidify the idea that Gen8 here in the USA will see a PS4/XBO/WiiU finish. No landslide for Sony (as in Gen6), but another sales victory seems all but assured.

Also interesting to see-- in spite of the MoM rise-- WiiU unable to more strongly capitalize on its low-priced holiday bundle. Indicates to me that Nintendo shouldn't bother with price cuts. Keep HW pricing level, weather sales peaks (when StarFox and Zelda arrive) and valleys (lots of dead space in the release schedule), and get NX ready to go ASAP. WiiU can't be salvaged; take the loss on the chin and try to do better with for Gen9.
 
Something doesn't jibe here. That's an 800k lead for PS4, but creamsugar said the LTD gap is 1.285m. That'd put the gap for end of 2014 at 485k. That's a lot lower than anyone was estimating back then. So which number is wrong?

So this would be wrong too?
Here's the fixed NA LTD figures

12372k PS4
11088k XB1
4969k WiiU

I had originally put in 3.52% as the sales gap instead of 4.52%. Mea culpa
 

Welfare

Member
Something doesn't jibe here. That's an 800k lead for PS4, but creamsugar said the LTD gap is 1.285m. That'd put the gap for end of 2014 at 485k. That's a lot lower than anyone was estimating back then. So which number is wrong?

The gap I have as of now is ~1290k so it's basically correct.

The gap at the end of 2014 was ~500k.
 

Fess

Member
Oh of course, I'm in no means trying to imply 1.2 million is its total sales, Im just saying 1.2 is the baseline KNOWN figure for sales volume. In other words a number we can work with which is much better than "who knows"

Just trying to piece some data together for people :)
Ah, that's okay I guess as long as everyone gets that there are many markets uncounted, Ubi might very well be cheering at the sales right now for all we know, US retail+UK retail+Steam digital isn't even close to counting world-wide sales on a multiplat world-wide release.
 
I find it funny that NPD is finally coming around to public data when the significance of their reports has drastically fallen due to sales shifting towards digital. All they will really have left to stay relevant is hardware data. The quicker NPD dies the better, fuck them for going in the dark for so many years.

NPD packaged goods unit sell-through data is still very relevant for the thousands of stores throughout the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand that sell video games and video game accessories.

It's also the only way for developers, publishers, and industry analysts to understand the broader landscape of the U.S. video game market because Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo do not share internal digital sell-through data from their online stores.

And even though digital shares have risen (to >20%), NPD Group data still captures the good majority of sales from the video game market.

For that reason, it will continue to hold relevance for quite a while. And even when packaged goods data is no longer relevant in a digital future (which I'm not sure is a certainty due to the mass outrage over Microsoft's attempt at it in 2013), there are numerous other sectors which The NPD Group tracks.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
Correct me if im wrong welfare but I you have PS4 sales for December 2015 listed as 1065K but yet, it's listed as 1582K a few posts earlier. Which one is accurate?
 

Welfare

Member
Correct me if im wrong welfare but I you have PS4 sales for December 2015 listed as 1065K but yet, it's listed as 1582K a few posts earlier. Which one is accurate?

Whoops, missed that. Thanks.

I also went back and updated 360+PS3 2014 thanks to working back from Mulcair's YoY drops.
 
NPD packaged goods unit sell-through data is still very relevant for the thousands of stores throughout the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand that sell video games and video game accessories.

It's also the only way for developers, publishers, and industry analysts to understand the broader landscape of the U.S. video game market because Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo do not share internal digital sell-through data from their online stores.

And even though digital shares have risen (to >20%), NPD Group data still captures the good majority of sales from the video game market.

For that reason, it will continue to hold relevance for quite a while. And even when packaged goods data is no longer relevant in a digital future (which I'm not sure is a certainty due to the mass outrage over Microsoft's attempt at it in 2013), there are numerous other sectors which The NPD Group tracks.

Hello mister Mulcair, is there any way you would share LTD figures for PS4/Xbox One/Wii U for NA, pretty please?
 
NPD packaged goods unit sell-through data is still very relevant for the thousands of stores throughout the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand that sell video games and video game accessories.

It's also the only way for developers, publishers, and industry analysts to understand the broader landscape of the U.S. video game market because Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo do not share internal digital sell-through data from their online stores.

And even though digital shares have risen (to >20%), NPD Group data still captures the good majority of sales from the video game market.

For that reason, it will continue to hold relevance for quite a while. And even when packaged goods data is no longer relevant in a digital future (which I'm not sure is a certainty due to the mass outrage over Microsoft's attempt at it in 2013), there are numerous other sectors which The NPD Group tracks.

Dont worry Mulcair we appreciate the data we really do.

Also you are correct, with current internet infrastructure, pricing of digital games, data caps, etc. a digital only future is still a LOOOOONG way off
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
Whoops, missed that. Thanks.

You're welcome. PS4 continues to sell like hotcakes. Ideally, PS4 should sell even better this year once their exclusives start getting released. It would be funny if the opposite happens though.
 

donny2112

Member
Something doesn't jibe here. That's an 800k lead for PS4, but creamsugar said the LTD gap is 1.285m. That'd put the gap for end of 2014 at 485k. That's a lot lower than anyone was estimating back then. So which number is wrong?

< 500K gap at end of 2014 seems about right.

USConsole_PS4gap_annual_201512.png
 
Ah, that's okay I guess as long as everyone gets that there are many markets uncounted, Ubi might very well be cheering at the sales right now for all we know, US retail+UK retail+Steam digital isn't even close to counting world-wide sales on a multiplat world-wide release.

Thats still the majority of its main markets, I dont really see how it could be above 2 million for example given what we have.

And if Ubi is smart they are cheering as thats a very nice success. I doubt Rainbow Six Vegas 1 or 2 launched that high
 
to this day I believe those 2 holidays spooked sony more than ever.

It had to be a bit of a wake up call. They dominated for months and then Xbox BLEW UP in November / December when to be honest Sony took it too easy last holiday. You can tell they totally rethought the strategy this year with better pricing, better bundles, and better marketing. All that combined for a MUCH improved holiday season so good on them.
 
I will share more data tomorrow.

It's 2:08 AM where I live and I'm going to bed.


Be sure to quote my previous post with data and use my graphs. They're meant to be shared. :)
 

Petrae

Member
I will share more data tomorrow.

It's 2:08 AM where I live and I'm going to bed.


Be sure to quote my previous post with data and use my graphs. They're meant to be shared. :)

Thanks again for sharing this info & for participating in the discussion. It's very much appreciated.
 

joecanada

Member
Yup, dude's a confirmed NDP employee. He just showed up a couple months ago saying as much. Pretty awesome to have around.

Ofcourse, he's the leader of the NDP I mean captain obvious here

Lol just playing with you

Great to have numbers here to discuss also I'm impressed by our previous sources too pretty accurate information getting around somehow.

We went legit!
 
Fascinating stuff. Serves to futher solidify the idea that Gen8 here in the USA will see a PS4/XBO/WiiU finish. No landslide for Sony (as in Gen6), but another sales victory seems all but assured.

Also interesting to see-- in spite of the MoM rise-- WiiU unable to more strongly capitalize on its low-priced holiday bundle. Indicates to me that Nintendo shouldn't bother with price cuts. Keep HW pricing level, weather sales peaks (when StarFox and Zelda arrive) and valleys (lots of dead space in the release schedule), and get NX ready to go ASAP. WiiU can't be salvaged; take the loss on the chin and try to do better with for Gen9.

Wiiu couldnt capitslize because its far too little far too late.

It was far to reactionary, had little advertising behind it and in terms of mindshare Nintendo have done a bad job of reminding people they exist.

The cut should have been done before Splatoon launched and Nintendo should of been putting out targeting advertising showing the best of their first party line up for months.

A random hoilday price drop isnt going to do much when you are competeing with much more desired products.
 
Ofcourse, he's the leader of the NDP I mean captain obvious here

Lol just playing with you

Great to have numbers here to discuss also I'm impressed by our previous sources too pretty accurate information getting around somehow.

We went legit!

There are very powerful and very influential people reading NeoGAF sales discussion on the regular. Believe it or not we have some very bright, informed people on this board and there are plenty of people in the industry who like to read our analysis and breakdown. So the better numbers we get the more "legit" the discussion will be :)

Any Rainbow Six Siege numbers?

Somewhere around 800k in US Worldwide above 1.2 million but no idea how much
 

Matt

Member
Ah, that's okay I guess as long as everyone gets that there are many markets uncounted, Ubi might very well be cheering at the sales right now for all we know, US retail+UK retail+Steam digital isn't even close to counting world-wide sales on a multiplat world-wide release.
Umm, it's pretty close. For R6 it's probebly around 70%.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Why is it that 3DS figures are always such a sticking point every results thread? It's the last figure we get every single time and it usually has the least concrete information. It's so weird! Why? What reason is there for this extra secrecy surrounding 3DS?
 
Uhh no. My post has a gap of 1284k. The 1k difference is due to rounding. My figures are accurate provided that cream's chart was.



His numbers were the same as mine just rounded to a higher figure. I rounded to the nearest 1k he rounded tithe nearest 100k...FFS.

Sorry, I just woke up, my brain can't deal when there are too many numbers, rounded figures are easier for my wakey brain.

Edit: so thank you too RexNovis! :)
 
Why is it that 3DS figures are always such a sticking point every results thread? It's the last figure we get every single time and it usually has the least concrete information. It's so weird! Why? What reason is there for this extra secrecy surrounding 3DS?

I think its because only regular members of Sales-gaf care about the 3ds.

And pretty much nobody cares about the Vita outside of a few hardcore owners.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sorry, I just woke up, my brain can't deal when there are too many numbers, rounded figures are easier for my wakey brain.

Edit: so thank you too RexNovis! :)

No worries you just made me panic and redo all my calculations to check. So I was a bit perturbed haha

I think its because only regular members of Sales-gaf care about the 3ds.

And pretty much nobody cares about the Vita outside of a few hardcore owners.
That's a good point.

You know Donny I've been wondering lately why we include 3DS in our predictions. It dies seem like less and less people care about or track its sales. It's also the only handheld system being predicted. What's the reasoning behind its inclusion.
 

orochi91

Member
Why is it that 3DS figures are always such a sticking point every results thread? It's the last figure we get every single time and it usually has the least concrete information. It's so weird! Why? What reason is there for this extra secrecy surrounding 3DS?

Yea, I've noticed that as well.

I want to say that perhaps Nintendo may have something to do with it, but that wouldn't make sense considering how easy it is to get Wii U numbers.
 
Why is it that 3DS figures are always such a sticking point every results thread? It's the last figure we get every single time and it usually has the least concrete information. It's so weird! Why? What reason is there for this extra secrecy surrounding 3DS?

I hope Donny would just remove it from 2016 predictions. That way we would get the results much faster.
 

freefornow

Member
Why is it that 3DS figures are always such a sticking point every results thread? It's the last figure we get every single time and it usually has the least concrete information. It's so weird! Why? What reason is there for this extra secrecy surrounding 3DS?

Surely NDP_Mulclair has these numbers if he is with NPD. Maybe we just need to ask him to include these in his info dumps?
 
NPD packaged goods unit sell-through data is still very relevant for the thousands of stores throughout the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand that sell video games and video game accessories.

It's also the only way for developers, publishers, and industry analysts to understand the broader landscape of the U.S. video game market because Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo do not share internal digital sell-through data from their online stores.

And even though digital shares have risen (to >20%), NPD Group data still captures the good majority of sales from the video game market.

For that reason, it will continue to hold relevance for quite a while. And even when packaged goods data is no longer relevant in a digital future (which I'm not sure is a certainty due to the mass outrage over Microsoft's attempt at it in 2013), there are numerous other sectors which The NPD Group tracks.

Do you have Xbox One and PS4 console lifetime sales for Canada?
 
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