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NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
cartographer
Member
April is when the real season starts.*
*
Unless results don't go the way I like, then it's still pre-season.
slavesnyder
Member
But Quantum Break will bring it's own TVseries with it.
And we all know that this is far hotter than those old-fashioned celluloid vehicles.
Quantum Breaking Bad
Edit:
Is the life action stuff still a thing?
Have we seen anything of this yet?
I don't know what to think about it.
I'm thinking it's going to sell under a million(700K-999K) in it's launch month in the US.It's launching in a slow month. It should sell between 2 and 3 million WW in it's first week probably.This is only if the game does not disappoint people.
slavesnyder
Member
Welfare
Member
Blame Uncharted lol
I think we have discussed everything that we can so far about December. Until something new pops up, it's preseason hype.
January will be dead, February will be better than January, March will be below February, and April will be interesting.
I do wonder if MS will do a surprise Easter price cut. Worked out well with the original Xbox, and they have been $349 for over a year now.
Chobel
Member
That won't work unless there's a big game released that week, and lol at bundling free TR2, that won't do shit.
Welfare
Member
It's the little things.
If that $349 Choose your game bundle sticks around until then, I would not be shocked to see that get some good deals.
Obliterator
Member
Wait is someone debating MS will win April or am I understanding something wrong here? It won't imo
MS best shot at winning an NPD month in the first half of the year is March with The Division bundle
MS best shot at winning an NPD month in the first half of the year is March with The Division bundle
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Eh even than thats debatable, depends if the division will be big/good enough to push it
Chobel
Member
MS has a chance to win April, but only if they cut the price.
The Division bundle is $400, MS chance of winning March is very slim.
The Division bundle is $400, MS chance of winning March is very slim.
If they will do a 349 $ bundle maybe ...
Obliterator
Member
Division is going to be huge opening month no matter what.
Certainly up for debate how much it will push Xbox hardware, and by no means am I saying it wins the month. I'm just saying that is their best chance.
SnowFlakeCake
Member
Of course, but if UC4 has the quality of TLOU I really hope it does a million. What I've seen of the game so far looks so good, I would rather have the TLOU2 but UC4 from Druckley will have to do for now.
Everything about the game seems lovely, really liked the beta as well and if this game has co-op I'm buying day 1. I don't think the Uncharted games were big at all in NA, it was EU that was pushing the franchise sales. It's fair to say UC2 and UC3 pushed well over 5 million copies and can't remember a time when both were heavily bundled. This is an NPD thread so I think 700k first month would be amazing since that would only be one week but WW I see UC4 doing something like a couple million sell through within 4 weeks, at worst.
If nothing else, Sony will push UC4 like no other game they've done in the past. At least here in the UK, I don't think anyone could say they did not push TLOU or even UC collection really heavily.
slavesnyder
Member
Agree.
And Xbox would surely win March if an Uncharted 4 Bundle was announced.
That would leave to the same shift of PS4 pre-orders from March to April, leaving a hole March. Same thing as we have seen with Battlefront/COD for Oct to Nov.
So, will we see an Uncharted 4 Bundle?
DriftingSpirit
Member
What were the third party deals/bundles for X1 last year?
The Witcher 3, Evolve, Fallout 4, ?
Aside from Fallout 4, I do not think the rest did much for X1 hardware. I am not seeing The Division doing much either.
The Witcher 3, Evolve, Fallout 4, ?
Aside from Fallout 4, I do not think the rest did much for X1 hardware. I am not seeing The Division doing much either.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Actually thinking about it? The division has the month all to itself? I mean aside from to niche products(nights of azure&senran kagura ev). Hm yea i can see xbox taking it.
Speaking about March and The Division, How much do you think it Will sell?
If i'm not wrong, it has an intere month of sales, right? ( 4 weeks )
Whach_Dogs sold 1.25 million in May NPD, but with only one week...
Do you think Will The Division sell more in 4 weeks?
I think it could. I say 1.3 million in March NPD.
If i'm not wrong, it has an intere month of sales, right? ( 4 weeks )
Whach_Dogs sold 1.25 million in May NPD, but with only one week...
Do you think Will The Division sell more in 4 weeks?
I think it could. I say 1.3 million in March NPD.
I could see 2 million easily because of the amount of time it has to sell in March unless the game disappoints people which will lead to the game selling less in the weeks after it's launch.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
UC4 will definitely surpass 1 million if you combine its first two NPDs
Obliterator
Member
Over a million for sure. How much over that no idea yet
Well it is dominating the Amazon charts atm (I know, probably doesn't mean much)
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-...rd_r=02YRKH8GEFFWWNBD39AH&tag=viglink20241-20
I think it will do similar to Watch Dogs first month. If it ends up being a genuinely great game then maybe it could get close to 2 million.
gundamkyoukai
Member
UC4 will sell more than 3 million WW easy first week .
As for The Division i have no idea how much that is going to do .
I guess the beta will give me a better idea .
Don't they have Madden and FIFA too? I know they still have FIFA (at least in the UK). There was also TR, but that bundle didn't do much either.
Well, as already said Watch_Dogs sold 1.25 million first week, and was At 1.86 million by end of June, which mean it sold in 6 weeks less than 2 million.
Imo, i really don't see The Division doing better than Watch_Dogs.
I fell Like the hype is not even Close to 2013/2014... It was delayed so many Times...
The Mad Draklor
Member
FIFA, Madden, Rise of the Tomb Raider, and Rainbow 6.
Obliterator
Member
It certainly faded for a bit as people started questioning when the hell its going to come out, but I think you are going to start seeing a huge spike in interest the next 2 months as it sets in that this thing is finally coming out.
I mean look at Siege, yeah it was December but that still launched at 800k. I don't see less than a million for Division, but yeah 2 million sounds awfully high
spatenfloot
Member
Do we even know if The Division is any good yet or are we looking at another Watchdogs?
Also, has SE decided on a release date for Rice of the Tomb Raider yet?
Also, has SE decided on a release date for Rice of the Tomb Raider yet?
Oh, but i agree Here, 1 million should be a given.
I think something between 1.2-1.5 million as For now... We'll see.
I'm pretty sure Ubisoft would be happy with it if it performs like watch dogs.
slavesnyder
Member
Division should depend heavily on reviews and the ability to explain what kind of game it is.
From screenshots and artwork alone you could first think it's just another Modern Warfare clone.
From screenshots and artwork alone you could first think it's just another Modern Warfare clone.
Obliterator
Member
Quality does not affect week one sales all that much. Stuff like marketing and hype do a LOT MORE. And The Division is going to be Destiny for the COD crowd.
Its gonna be damn big opening week / month. Question will be how it legs out
Its gonna be damn big opening week / month. Question will be how it legs out
slavesnyder
Member
Destiny had heavy marketing starting over at least half a year prior already. Even the first announcmement itself was sensational.
Is there any buzz around Division yet? I remark it starts by now, but does it reach the masses apart from educated gamers?
Destiny had a huge "narrative" as the new game from the Halo guys, on PS4! This was priceless.
slavesnyder
Member
I don't think SE has anything to decide on the Raid of the Rice Tomber release. It's all in the contracts with MS. I guess they only wonder when would be the least cringy moment to announce it, that the exclusivity was 1 year and that they will happily repeat the 2015 debacle this holiday all over again.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Out of curiosity, does anyone have old Four Swords Adventures US sales #s? I'm curious how TFH sales compare to it.
Obliterator
Member
The Division has plenty of hype and mindshare from its original reveal. A lot of people have been waiting for this one for a long time
gundamkyoukai
Member
Yeah destiny had much more hype going for it
Plus it had a huge beta going for it also .
I think the beta will decide how much this really sells in the first week .
slavesnyder
Member
For me it seems that reveal was phantastic, even so good many took it for vaporware.
Then they somehow managed to slowly cool any excitement for the game down to flatline. And now they almost start from scratch.
Don't get me wrong, I believe there are, as with most games, people in anticipation and excitement since reveal, and I loooved the 3minute trailer.
But their communication so far wasn't too impressive and caused a lot of unnecessary doubts in the meantime.
Edit: if the game is as good as promised.
If it's a mess I'd be no wonder we didn't hear much along the way.
Square2015
Member
I'm officially retiring this graph, as the year comes to a close. Year Three complete. This started out as a WiiU vs. past Nintendo consoles but as the WiiU fades it's better to focus on the big guns in the console war from now on. So going forward I'd like to focus on Year Three [again heh] instead of going on to Year Four.
Lining up that SW takes forever/ I'm done with it.
Lining up that SW takes forever/ I'm done with it.
Obliterator
Member
I mean does anyone think it has any chance of opening lower than Siege? That game didn't seem to have any big push at launch. Still did 800k. Yes I know that was December
Division will be above a million imo for sure
Division will be above a million imo for sure
Hitman could have some impact.
Dead or Alive: Get jiggy with it v. 3 releases in march aswell iirc
I think we all agree with this. The real question is How much over that.
Speaking about Zelda, i think 300k is the minimum, i Will go with ~400,000.
Majora's Mask sold 515,000 first month, and twilight princess is waaaaaaaay bigger than Majora's Mask.
The only reason why i believe it Will sell less is because Wii U has a smaller userbase than 3DS, and because the New 3DS released has probabily helped Majora's Mask.
Also, it's 4 weeks of twilight princess VS 3 weeks of Majora's Mask.
boredandlazy
Member
Dark Souls 3 is the first March title that comes to mind.
not really. Besides the show there aren't any other relatively big releases. There will probably be small residual sales of Far Cry Primal and Street fighter though. There should be a big gap between #1( Division) and the rest of the games
Edit: Dark Souls 3 but thats prob not gonna do more than Bloodbourne
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
Dark souls 3 and pokken
I wouldn't take The Division pre orders as a proof for now.
It's a pre order and receive a beta code now. Who knows how many people will cancel the orders after that.
Seriously, Microsoft bundles decision are a really disaster.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
I dont think either MS or Sony can get away with a new AAA $6o game being bundled for $35o or less. Im sure Ubisoft is the factor thats making the price that high.
Now to be fair I know someone is going to say AC, but that was the holiday so it could make up the numbers.
Sony bundles Star Wars and BO 3 for $349.
Why would be Ubisoft's fault when they had Assassin's Creed for that price last year.
Also Tomb Raider is a game edited by Microsoft, at $399.
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