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[slavesnyder]

Let's put it this way:
If Quantum Break was an Uncharted killer we would have heard about that by now.

 

[Night Angel]

I see a lot of you guys saying this, the issues is that agreeing with that is a little odd since we know NOTHING about the game outside its an AAA title and it will have a big budget. We know NOTHING else. Literally nothing about QB. nothing. So i have to give the 5o, 5o, chance.

S0 y0u think there's a 5o, 5o chance 0f a game we kn0w n0thing ab0ut influencing sales m0re than an established, successful, and critically acclaimed franchise getting a sequel 0n an already more p0pular c0nsole with higher mindshare and better w0rd 0f m0uth?

0k.

 

[El_Cinefilo]

Mortal Kombat X in the top ten for the year surprised me. Well done them.

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

Your argument is that a game we know nothing about three months before its release has a chance to outsell Uncharted? Step back and think on this mate.

Again,l I did, when I did this with Uncharted Collection. And ps4 won. So this could be the same. or it could not.

But i know the consensus will remain unchagned here so Ill just drop the subject, but like I said, same with Uncharted collection, and ps4 won.

But anyway lets go back to the instability of the current game industry everyone was discussing.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

I see a lot of you guys saying this, the issues is that agreeing with that is a little odd since we know NOTHING about the game outside its an AAA title and it will have a big budget. We know NOTHING else. Literally nothing about QB. nothing. So i have to give the 5o, 5o, chance.

I have actually seen the demo play on a Xbone launch party last year. The game looks awesome, but it was/is your typical shooter with some superpower, quite much like InFamous without the open world. It was based in tight corridors/small rooms. It doesn't possess any surprise effect, it is very typical. Story might be cool, but the gameplay is just your typical scifi shoot and use your power thing. And at that point it even looked rough: stuttering, screen tearing and all, and it ran on hi-power PC.

And this comes from a Finnish guy. Remedy is a Finnish dev, you know.

Nope, it has nothing against UC4. Sorry.

 

[SURGEdude]

Issues is that I had this same argument with the Uncharted Collection, and Gears Collection bundles, and guess which consoles won, ps4. There was doubt about the Uncharted bundle for a bit around the internet. Then they started revealing more things and look what happened.

The difference is that those are both known franchises. Publishers can get away with lower profile launches and still sell a large number of units.

New titles don't generally blow-up the charts without a lot of effort and PR investment for months or even years leading up to launch. Even with that the likelihood of a new IP being able to win an uphill battle against a larger install base and massive franchise is much much lower than a 50/50 split.

 

[Elandyll]

I like how you edited out RECENT post, so didnt quote the original post that everyone was responding to that clearly said ONE of the first 6 months. interesting.

I did not edit RECENT. I edited to add my own analysis at the end.
You did write "the first 6 months", I directly quoted you, and so did someone else.

Still interested in knowing how that would happen btw.

 

[etta]

Maybe they'll do a Quantum Break bundle at $299 or $329 with a $50 store credit.

 

[SURGEdude]

Mortal Kombat X in the top ten for the year surprised me. Well done them.

That was the biggest surprise for me as well. Sold very well with surprisingly little apparent hype.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I dont even know what the game offers, how can I answer that question.

I did the same with Uncharted Collection, and look what happened, i was right to give it the 5o, 5o, and guess what consoles won, the ps4.

This is no different. I dont know about the game, and until I do I cant really just assume Uncharted will win. Just like I cant assume Uncharted will lose.

You not knowing about a game tells you something .
Most games that sell big have a huge amount of hype months before they come out .
The marketing for them also starts early .

Also i don't understand your point about the UCC ?

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Huh odd, nowhere in the post can anyone who can read think that I said Xbox one will catch the ps4. Again your bad reading comprehension. And his.

Blaming other people for bad reading comprehension for your bad reading comprehension? Yep, another typical Tivor Tontomo tactic.

 

[Lemondish]

Again,l I did, when I did this with Uncharted Collection. And ps4 won. So this could be the same. or it could not.

But i know the consensus will remain unchagned here so Ill just drop the subject, but like I said, same with Uncharted collection, and ps4 won.

But anyway lets go back to the instability of the current game industry everyone was discussing.

What are you talking about? We knew almost everything there was to know about the Uncharted Collection. That was because it was a collection of previously released Uncharted titles. It's right there in the bloody name.

This is not even remotely in the same realm. Things do not have a 50% chance of happening simply because you think up two possible scenarios. That's not how any of this works.

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

I have actually seen the demo play on a Xbone launch party last year. The game looks awesome, but it was/is your typical shooter with some superpower, quite much like InFamous without the open world. It was based in tight corridors/small rooms. It doesn't possess any surprise effect, it is very typical. Story might be cool, but the gameplay is just your typical scifi shoot and use your power thing. And at that point it even looked rough: stuttering, screen tearing and all, and it ran on hi-power PC.

And this comes from a Finnish guy. Remedy is a Finnish dev, you know.

Nope, it has nothing against UC4. Sorry.

We know nothing about the game since Gamescome which was a similar demo that was already pre, prevaired that aired in 2k14, we know nothing about what the game actually is than showing off time vowers, we know nothing of the features, we know nothing about the TV show. None of that has been SHOWN to us even in a limited form. its been talked about and discussed and thats it.

Now again, this is my view, and I see no reason to change it jsut like when i figured there was a chance of Uncharted Collection beating gears , and guess what, ps4 won that month.

But feel free to disagree.

dropping that subject. The AA situation for games needs to be solves as Nirolack said.

 

[hawk2025]

Oh man.

The $5o bill, the 5o/5o scenario.

What a goldmine, these past couple of days.

 

[SURGEdude]

You not knowing about a game tells you something .
Most games that sell big have a huge amount of hype months before they come out .
The marketing for them also starts early .

Compare the profile of QB to Alan Wake. That's a scary thought. AW had tons of hype and was a great title that MS pushed hard. And it didn't do great.

QB is launching in a much worse position.

Remedy deserves a hit so fucking bad it hurts. But I think it's quite likely that QB won't deliver it to them.

 

[Yurikerr]

When was the last time that a new ip without huge marketing muscle sold a huge amount of consoles?

I'm not even talking about game copies, but about selling hardware. As that's what is being discussed.

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

Blaming other people for bad reading comprehension for your bad reading comprehension? Yep, another typical Tivor Tontomo tactic.

Show me where one can be confused or just admit your wrong and stop being a baby.

Actually thats not likely, you dont seem to really have anything to say so i guess its better to just not even look at your posts for civil discussion. Your the first circular argument whiner Ive seen on here, I dont like those. So you know, when you do the above let me know.

So continue with the thread, i got other threads to look at.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Show me where one can be confused or just admit your wrong and stop being a baby.

Actually thats not likely, you dont seem to really have anything to say so i guess its better to just not even look at your posts for civil discussion. Your the first circular argument whiner Ive seen on here, I dont like those. So you know, when you do the above let me know.

I already pointed out at your fallacies, such as repetitive assertion, strawman, and appeal to silence, and you never fixed your arguments to avoid those fallacies. If you can't back up your points, then you can't be taken seriously. After all, you're the one that made the positive claims so the burden of proof lies on you, not me.

But hey, do continue to post shit because it makes this thread even more entertaining.

 

[Lemondish]

Compare the profile of QB to Alan Wake. That's a scary thought. AW had tons of hype and was a great title that MS pushed hard. And it didn't do great.

QB is launching in a much worse position.

Remedy deserves a hit so fucking bad it hurts. But I think it's quite likely that QB won't deliver it to them.

I think Remedy deserves a hit when they start to figure out how to release more than one game a decade.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

Show me where one can be confused or just admit your wrong and stop being a baby.

Actually thats not likely, you dont seem to really have anything to say so i guess its better to just not even look at your posts for civil discussion. Your the first circular argument whiner Ive seen on here, I dont like those. So you know, when you do the above let me know.

So continue with the thread, i got other threads to look at.

Why even start that whole thing if you weren't going to stick around for it

 

[AmaterasuOni]

When was the last time that a new ip without huge marketing muscle sold a huge amount of consoles?

I'm not even talking about game copies, but about selling hardware. As that's what is being discussed.

Watch Doges. I pre-ordered my PS4 because of that bloody Watch Doges. I know few others who did that as well. Then WD got potponed, then it turned out to be utter shit. GG. At least PS4 is awesome.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

Maybe they'll do a Quantum Break bundle at $299 or $329 with a $50 store credit.

i think a buy a game free offer with a xbox one purchase is more likely for quantum break week or even uncharted week

 

[Night Angel]

Show me where one can be confused or just admit your wrong and stop being a baby.

Actually thats not likely, you dont seem to really have anything to say so i guess its better to just not even look at your posts for civil discussion. Your the first circular argument whiner Ive seen on here, I dont like those. So you know, when you do the above let me know.

So continue with the thread, i got other threads to look at.

I'll give you one, since going through your incoherent ramblings for all of them will take too much effort:

When you say that the Xbone will win the first 6 months of 2016, this reads as if you believe it will win EVERY MONTH of the first 6 months of the year. This is a failure on your part to present a clear point. It may be due to a language difference, but it's on YOU to present a clear point, not on US to decipher it.

 

[Lemondish]

I'll give you one, since going through your incoherent ramblings for all of them will take too much effort:

When you say that the Xbone will win the first 6 months of 2016, this reads as if you believe it will win EVERY MONTH of the first 6 months of the year. This is a failure on your part to present a clear point. It may be due to a language difference, but it's on YOU to present a clear point, not on US to decipher it.

Furthermore, consider backing up your claim with logical conclusions, not some 5o/5o could go ANYWAY GUYZ hand waving nonsense.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Watch Doges. I pre-ordered my PS4 because of that bloody Watch Doges.

WD had a huge amount of marketing and hype .
Of course we had downgrade threads after a while but still it had both .

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

Why even start that whole thing if you weren't going to stick around for it

I dont think you understand how this works.

I gave my opinion, and have sixtupled down ont hat opinion, and the reason why. So now there nothing more to discuss. I have already also tripled down on my defense for the opinion, which has not changed, and everyone knows what that is.

What did I *start*, nothing. Theres nothing else to discuss. What your suggesting is just a circular endless argument of me making the same post over and over again for pages. no thanks.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

WD has a huge amount of marketing and hype .
Of course we had downgrade threads after a while but still it had both .

Damn yeah, I somehow missed that WITHOUT. My bad.

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

Furthermore, consider backing up your claim with logical conclusions, not some 5o/5o could go ANYWAY GUYZ hand waving nonsense.

Uh no this didnt happen, i already backed up my claim.We know nothing about the game, we got no new info. Im not going to assume uncharted 4 will beat Qb, jsut like I didnt assume Gears Remake would beat the Uncharted Collection. I was right not to do the latter, as ps4 won.

My opinion wont change, the conversation is done, stop wastingvosts trying to change an opinion you dont agree with.

So with that, please go back to the other topics that are discussed in this thread.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I dont think you understand how this works.

I gave my opinion, and have sixtupled asserted ont hat opinion, and the reason why. So now there nothing more to discuss. I have already also tripled asserted on my defense for the opinion, which has not changed, and everyone knows what that is.

What did I *start*, nothing. Theres nothing else to discuss. What your suggesting is just a circular endless argument of me making the same post over and over again for pages. no thanks.

FTFY.

What did I tell you about argumentum ad nauseam? And you're the one who keeps blaming us for having bad reading comprehension... -__-"

 

[SURGEdude]

WD had a huge amount of marketing and hype .
Of course we had downgrade threads after a while but still it had both .

It was also early in the gen and positioned as "truly" next gen. Whatever the fuck that means.

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

I'll give you one, since going through your incoherent ramblings for all of them will take too much effort:

When you say that the Xbone will win the first 6 months of 2016, this reads as if you believe it will win EVERY MONTH of the first 6 months of the year. This is a failure on your part to present a clear point. It may be due to a language difference, but it's on YOU to present a clear point, not on US to decipher it.

This was never said the post everyone is responding to, the original post, makes it clear its ONE of the months of of the first 6 months. backpedaling and rearranging posts to be what other want it to be,. is an issue with this thread. You can have it.

 

[SURGEdude]

This was never said the post everyone is responding to, the original post, makes it clear its ONE of the months of of the first 6 months. backpedaling and rearranging posts to be what other want it to be,. is an issue with this thread. You can have it.

The thing is that any new IP has far less than a 50/50 chance of even being a hit. So it's already at a huge disadvantage against a title that will almost certainly do gangbusters.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

Let make this simple

Guy says Xbox one wont win a month this year.

I say it will likely win a month during the first 6 months of this year. Im mostly focusing on QB when I say this.

Dont see any issues here. Could be wrong, depends on how big QB is. Or rather if MS actually promotes it.

Uncharted 4 comes out in April too. The best chance it has at winning a month is September/October - Whenever Gears 4 drops.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Uncharted 4 comes out in April too. The best chance it has at winning a month is September/October - Whenever Gears 4 drops.

Ratchet and Clank will also come out in April.

 

[Night Angel]

This was never said the post everyone is responding to, the original post, makes it clear its ONE of the months of of the first 6 months. backpedaling and rearranging posts to be what other want it to be,. is an issue with this thread. You can have it.

Here's a quote brah. Since your thoughts are not well presented and mostly impossible to follow, it's important to present a consistent argument. Your original post was less than crystal clear, and this one only added to the confusion.

I said there was a chance for them to win the first 6 months of the year.

Also, just a tip, we don't need to know 100% of everything to draw reasonable conclusions about sales of UC4 vs QB. Uncertainty is generally a part of forecasting, because if we knew everything we wouldn't need to forecast at all.

There's no substance to the points you're making.

 

[Lemondish]

Uh no this didnt happen, i already backed up my claim.We know nothing about the game, we got no new info. Im not going to assume uncharted 4 will beat Qb, jsut like I didnt assume Gears Remake would beat the Uncharted Collection. I was right not to do the latter, as ps4 won.

My opinion wont change, the conversation is done, stop wastingvosts trying to change an opinion you dont agree with.

So with that, please go back to the other topics that are discussed in this thread.

We have also established that your opinion is worth nothing if you can't back it up with logical analysis or facts. Carry on with your insane ramblings if you want, but you will never avoid the ridicule if you can't back it up.

 

[SURGEdude]

Uncharted 4 comes out in April too. The best chance it has at winning a month is September/October - Whenever Gears 4 drops.

Gears 4 month is absolutely the most likely to give the MS a month on top. Not a certainty, but about 5 million times more likely than Quantum.

Barring any insane firesales on the hardware.

 

[Tubie]

Uh no this didnt happen, i already backed up my claim.We know nothing about the game, we got no new info. Im not going to assume uncharted 4 will beat Qb, jsut like I didnt assume Gears Remake would beat the Uncharted Collection. I was right not to do the latter, as ps4 won.

My opinion wont change, the conversation is done, stop wastingvosts trying to change an opinion you dont agree with.

So with that, please go back to the other topics that are discussed in this thread.

How is the whole Gears vs Uncharted (HD re-releases of old games) thing you keep bringing up even remotely comparable to a new IP that we know nothing about vs one of the most anticipated games of this generation?

 

[Yurikerr]

Damn yeah, I somehow missed that WITHOUT. My bad.

Yeah, that's the difference between QB and the other new IP's from this gen. Microsoft isn't exposing the game the same way that they did with Gears last gen, for example.

 

[Cornbread78]

You just can't make this shit up, lol

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Gears 4 month is absolutely the most likely to give the MS a month on top. Not a certainty, but about 5 million times more likely than Quantum.

Barring any insane firesales on the hardware.

It also depends on when Sony releases Horizon. If Gears 4 and Horizon come out in the same month, then there's a good chance for the PS4 to win.

 

[Welfare]

I see April as an either or situation. Quantum Break is at the beginning of the month, UC4 at the end. UC4 will provide the bigger boost in hardware sales, but MS could have deals throughout the month like last year, and possibly have a free game deal during the week of UC4 (possible TR promotion/TR with every Xbox One for a week).

April is a slow enough month that depending on the deals, either Xbox One or PS4 could win, but if that were to happen, it would be extremely close.

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

I see April as an either or situation. Quantum Break is at the beginning of the month, UC4 at the end. UC4 will provide the bigger boost in hardware sales, but MS could have deals throughout the month like last year, and possibly have a free game deal during the week of UC4 (possible TR promotion/TR with every Xbox One for a week).

April is a slow enough month that depending on the deals, either Xbox One or PS4 could win, but if that were to happen, it would be extremely close.

Interesting opinion.

 

[Night Angel]

I see April as an either or situation. Quantum Break is at the beginning of the month, UC4 at the end. UC4 will provide the bigger boost in hardware sales, but MS could have deals throughout the month like last year, and possibly have a free game deal during the week of UC4 (possible TR promotion/TR with every Xbox One for a week).

April is a slow enough month that depending on the deals, either Xbox One or PS4 could win, but if that were to happen, it would be extremely close.

Read this, Tivor. This is how normal people construct arguments.
Edit: OH, goodie! Now try it yourself.

 

[cartographer]

Ratchet and Clank will also come out in April.

Ok, but what do we know about Ratchet and Clank for us to even make a guesstimate about its performance, nothing. We have very little info on the game, we dont know how it will launch or how the advertising will be. We dont know if it along with some odler games will attract more guys over or if Uncharted 4 will.

 

[Yurikerr]

I see April as an either or situation. Quantum Break is at the beginning of the month, UC4 at the end. UC4 will provide the bigger boost in hardware sales, but MS could have deals throughout the month like last year, and possibly have a free game deal during the week of UC4 (possible TR promotion/TR with every Xbox One for a week).

April is a slow enough month that depending on the deals, either Xbox One or PS4 could win, but if that were to happen, it would be extremely close.

Couldn't Uncharted 4 propel PS4 sales to September 2014 (Destiny launch) numbers if there's a good bundle?

I seriously don't see MS making any crazy deals just to win the Quantum Break month. Maybe a free game selection on U4 week, not something that goes the whole month, like some gift card.

 

[Night Angel]

Ok, but what do we know about Ratchet and Clank for us to even make a guesstimate about its performance, nothing. We have very little info on the game, we dont know how it will launch or how the advertising will be. We dont know if it along with some odler games will attrack more guys over or if Uncharted 4 will.

Because we don't know much about it, we could say there's a 5o, 5o chance Ratchet will outsell UC.

 

[Lemondish]

I see April as an either or situation. Quantum Break is at the beginning of the month, UC4 at the end. UC4 will provide the bigger boost in hardware sales, but MS could have deals throughout the month like last year, and possibly have a free game deal during the week of UC4 (possible TR promotion/TR with every Xbox One for a week).

April is a slow enough month that depending on the deals, either Xbox One or PS4 could win, but if that were to happen, it would be extremely close.

That is possible, but I think this would be the case only if Sony does not plan for, market, and begin taking pre-orders on an Uncharted 4 bundle. If a U4 bundle goes up for pre-order, I highly doubt it would matter what time of the month either game launches.

Not to mention this is the same month that the Ratchet & Clank movie and game releases. Sony will have a lot of options to take and hold the microphone the entire month, so to speak.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Ok, but what do we know about Ratchet and Clank for us to even make a guesstimate about its performance, nothing. We have very little info on the game, we dont know how it will launch or how the advertising will be. We dont know if it along with some odler games will attract more guys over or if Uncharted 4 will.

So because we aren't sure how much Sony will advertise R&C or have any idea of its performance, we should just assume that it won't do anything? That is not how logic works. Here's what we do know though:

The game won't be priced at $60, but instead at $40, which will definitely help. In addition, the series will also get a movie and that will help advertise the game simultaneously. Lastly, the reboot appeals to the demographic that neither Quantum Break nor Uncharted 4 appeal to: the platformer fanbase.

You missed the joke

But all your points are valid.

Dammit!! Time to tinker with my sarcasm meter...

 

[Lemondish]

So because we aren't sure how much Sony will advertise R&C or have any idea of its performance, we should just assume that it won't do anything? That is not how logic works. Here's what we do know.

The game won't be priced at $60, but instead at $40, which will definitely help. In addition, the series will also get a movie and that will help advertise the game simultaneously. Lastly, the reboot appeals to the demographic that neither Quantum Break nor Uncharted 4 appeal to: the platformer fanbase.

You missed the joke

But all your points are valid.