I'd argue that Destiny as a whole had more hype going into it than Uncharted 4 has. Plus Destiny had a bundle with months of pre orders on top of it. Sony would have to announce a bundle fairly soon for it to have the same amount of time that the Destiny bundle had for pre orders
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NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
While I know you are joking I actually do think R&C is a bit of a wildcard. I think it will sink or swim based on the quality of the title itself. The franchise is at a tipping point where future relevance or irrelevance seems likely to be decided.
Welfare
Member
Not happening. The hype behind Destiny and the marketing/release are far ahead of what UC4 has going for it. Destiny sold more PS4's in September 2014 than Halo 3 did for Xbox 360 back in September 2007 (538k vs 528k, but Destiny was out for 2 weeks longer) and while some here are betting UC4 will do something like beat a mainline Halo title in the US (could happen or not), this is April. Not even GTA 4 could sell as many 360's and PS3's in April 2008 (188k 360's and 187k PS3's, 375k total).
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
How big is Uncharted in the US anyway? Do we have any LTD numbers of the series?
There seems to be an healthy growth from title to title if you look to opening month numbers. 100k (u1) > 500k (u2) > 800k (u3) > 1m (tlou).
But don't know what they ended up selling. I guess U3 sold 2/ 3 million, maybe TLoU 3 million+?
There seems to be an healthy growth from title to title if you look to opening month numbers. 100k (u1) > 500k (u2) > 800k (u3) > 1m (tlou).
But don't know what they ended up selling. I guess U3 sold 2/ 3 million, maybe TLoU 3 million+?
Wasn't there some buzz a while back about the surprising negative effect caused by launching games at a discount? Maybe I'm misremembering, but I could have sworn it had to do with people perceiving budget launch games as more likely to be shovelware.
What boost did TLOU give the PS3 out of interest?
I am expecting UC4 to have a similar first month to TLOU. Perhaps more if it is another "GOTG 11/10" game.
Uncharted 3 sold 700k in his first month in US.... The game shipped around 10 ML ww anyway...
The Mad Draklor
Member
If an Uncharted 4 bundle is to be announced, then it won't be until after Street Fighter V comes out since I bet Sony will want to take advantage of its console exclusivity as much as it can.
This is actually the first time I've heard about this, so I can't really answer your question
Good points, but sony still have some time until U4 launch. If they announce a bundle next month there's still 2+ months of potential sales.
The Destiny hype was really huge, but when the marketing kicks in (if Sony at least try) I think Uncharted anticipation will really explode. Just a final great trailer that airs on TV and movie theaters.
Bottom line is that i personally can't see how Tivor can say that QB has a chance of beating Uncharted. If XB1 really outsell PS4 in april it will be because of deals, not because a QB.
Well, reading this numbers i guess april really is a slow month. I would argue that a possible U4 bundle has the price advantage in relation to the Destiny one. But Destiny even had the white ps4 special bundle.
Yeah, now i think there's no way of beating Destiny month.
Edit: Man, how do you guys have all this numbers at hand so fast?! It's incredible =]
ethomaz
Banned
Xbone ratio in EU is the same than 360...
I can go on.
BTW these is no quote in your post... there is no guy.. you can check lol
Welfare
Member
May 2013 84,000
June 2013 108,000 (+29%)
However, this would not be attributed to TLOU, but more June just being a much better month overall to May.
For example, the 360 in the same period.
May 2013 114,000
June 2013 140,000 (+23%)
Also, looking back to 2012
PS3 May 2012 130,000
June 2012 188,000 (+45%)
360 May 2012 160,000
June 2012 257,000 (+61%)
Destiny was supposed to be the second coming though. UC will get anticipation but I don't see it reaching Destiny. I think it'll do around what UC3 did in its first month, 700-800k ish. Which for a single platform is pretty good this gen
Also if QB did uncharted numbers I think MS would be singing from the heavens. I think that 200k would be solid, and 300+ would be pretty good for it
Hmm that seems kinda low. The hype around the game is pretty strong and Naughty Dog are a much bigger name now than when UC3 released.
*I don't think it will do Destiny numbers btw
I doubt the creators feel that way. You don't expand the franchise into a major motion picture release if you feel it's on the precipice of obsolescence.
I think it'll do more, really close to Halo 5 numbers.
But thinking about it, the Destiny hype close to launch was really crazy. And it had Activision's marketing force behind it, that should never be discounted.
Imagine if Destiny actually delivered. Man ... The hype would've carried it through the holidays
Oh I'm sure they don't agree. But neither do the AssCreed people who took so long to put their film together that the franchise it's based on began to decline.
Films often miss the boat. Especially ones based on a fairly fickle medium like gaming.
This is actually the first time I've heard about this, so I can't really answer your question
Yeah I'm having a hell of a time tracking down the source. Doesn't help that it's hard to come up with a decent Google search string.
Maybe I'm just misremembering or conflating some unrelated statements to produce the newest episode of tales from my ass. In which case my bad.
edit: shit DP. Sorry.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I think Uncharted 4 is going to have a huge opening. Best in the series.
gundamkyoukai
Member
UC4 should do more than that .
UC3 did 700k and TLOU did 950k .
Also i expect it to have a bigger opening since it's the first one on PS4.
If i remember Infamous SS and BB had bigger opening months than they did before .
I'd just like to join in with some of the skepticism I've read in this thread about the claim that Rise of the Tomb Raider "sold through well over one million units".
There was some speculation when the one million figure was announced that ROTR must of had a really great December but now we know that this wasn't the case.
There was some speculation when the one million figure was announced that ROTR must of had a really great December but now we know that this wasn't the case.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Alan Wake wasn't exactly a gangbuster in sales, and that is this studio's previous game. They simply don't have the momentum in the public sphere ND has been building since 2013 w/ TLOU.
UC4 should have no problem outselling QB, but I'm not expecting QB to bomb, either.
Welfare
Member
Also, for the whole "ND is a bigger name." "TLOU sold amazing!", don't be shocked if UC4 does not beat TLOU in launch month.
Once again, this is April, a slow month for sales. Just in April 2015, the number 1 title MKX did > 1.25m, however, that was a multiplatform title, only doing >733k on the PS4, and was available for all 4 weeks in April.
TLOU did an impressive ~985k in June 2013, but, that was in June, an overall better sales month than April, and TLOU had 4 weeks of sales in the June NPD out of the 5.
UC3 did 700k in the November 2011 NPD, and that was with all 4 weeks of the month.
UC4 is going to only have 1 week this April. Don't expect a lot.
Once again, this is April, a slow month for sales. Just in April 2015, the number 1 title MKX did > 1.25m, however, that was a multiplatform title, only doing >733k on the PS4, and was available for all 4 weeks in April.
TLOU did an impressive ~985k in June 2013, but, that was in June, an overall better sales month than April, and TLOU had 4 weeks of sales in the June NPD out of the 5.
UC3 did 700k in the November 2011 NPD, and that was with all 4 weeks of the month.
UC4 is going to only have 1 week this April. Don't expect a lot.
Jarod McChicken
Member
That creamy Nintendo LTD dump wasn't only niche games though, with Splatoon, Super Mario Maker or Yoshi.
In case there was any doubt, I'm aware that no one here has the duty to deliver numbers, and every single data found here is a great bonus.
Despite that, I don't think it was wrong to point out that all the numbers are stacked on one side. People on this thread were expecting that the same kind of data would leak for other platforms, that's all.
Welfare, as you have a lot of numbers there, what was the best selling game that launched in April? Was MKX?
I have "huge" expectations for U4 . > 1 ML would be very good.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
That's a reasonable expectation. Expecting QB to outsell UC4 LTD is a very unreasonable expectation, however. That's what Tivor made it sound like they were saying would happen, which is kind of ridiculous.
Welfare
Member
I don't have all the sales numbers for April, but I'm going to go with the safe answer of GTA 4, doing 2.85m.
Wanna post my opinion about April NPD as well...
First of all: Software
Uncharted 3 sold over 800k back in November 2011 including bundle, and around 700,000 withouth bundle.
It sold those numbers in 4 weeks, including of course the bigger week of the year, Black Friday.
Now, Uncharted 4 will release in 27 April 2015, and has only one week of sales.
I think overall Uncharted 4 will be a bigger game than Uncharted 3, but i think people should get that is not THAT easy sells more than Uncharted 3 first NPD, because we are talking about 1 week of April, a very slow month, Versus 4 weeks of November, the bigger month of the year.
And don't forget digital sales which are now bigger than in 2011
In short, if Uncharted 4 will beat Uncharted 3 first month at retail, i will be very surprised honestly. Not saying is impossible, just, i don't see this happen...
I think ~600,000 for Uncharted 4 first week seem reasonable (retail).
Quantum Break... it's a new IP and all, but i believe MS will do a good work with this game in term of marketing. A bundle is almost a given, and some promotion are possible.
With 4 weeks of sales, i wanna be optimist, and i say 300,000...
Now, about hardware.
Well, i see PS4 wins very easy the first two month of the year, March should be closed than the others months because The Division marketing of XB1, but i still see a PS4 victory.
March is waaaaaaaay bigger than April, and has 5 weeks as well. But with Uncharted 4 / Quantum Break and some deals, is not impossible for XB1 and PS4 sells equal / more than in March.
For example, XB1 sold 236,000 unit in 5 weeks of March 2015 (47.2k weekly sales), and 187,000 in 4 weeks of April 2015 (46,750). It was around flat in weekly sales.
My guess is that, talking about weekly sales, PS4 and XB1 should be flat or a bit down compared to March, and if so, a -20% MOM drop.
Since i see a PS4 victory in March, i expect a PS4 victory in April as well. But there are a lot of thing that can happen and for now we have no idea, so, hard to say now.
But as for now, that's what i predict.
First of all: Software
Uncharted 3 sold over 800k back in November 2011 including bundle, and around 700,000 withouth bundle.
It sold those numbers in 4 weeks, including of course the bigger week of the year, Black Friday.
Now, Uncharted 4 will release in 27 April 2015, and has only one week of sales.
I think overall Uncharted 4 will be a bigger game than Uncharted 3, but i think people should get that is not THAT easy sells more than Uncharted 3 first NPD, because we are talking about 1 week of April, a very slow month, Versus 4 weeks of November, the bigger month of the year.
And don't forget digital sales which are now bigger than in 2011
In short, if Uncharted 4 will beat Uncharted 3 first month at retail, i will be very surprised honestly. Not saying is impossible, just, i don't see this happen...
I think ~600,000 for Uncharted 4 first week seem reasonable (retail).
Quantum Break... it's a new IP and all, but i believe MS will do a good work with this game in term of marketing. A bundle is almost a given, and some promotion are possible.
With 4 weeks of sales, i wanna be optimist, and i say 300,000...
Now, about hardware.
Well, i see PS4 wins very easy the first two month of the year, March should be closed than the others months because The Division marketing of XB1, but i still see a PS4 victory.
March is waaaaaaaay bigger than April, and has 5 weeks as well. But with Uncharted 4 / Quantum Break and some deals, is not impossible for XB1 and PS4 sells equal / more than in March.
For example, XB1 sold 236,000 unit in 5 weeks of March 2015 (47.2k weekly sales), and 187,000 in 4 weeks of April 2015 (46,750). It was around flat in weekly sales.
My guess is that, talking about weekly sales, PS4 and XB1 should be flat or a bit down compared to March, and if so, a -20% MOM drop.
Since i see a PS4 victory in March, i expect a PS4 victory in April as well. But there are a lot of thing that can happen and for now we have no idea, so, hard to say now.
But as for now, that's what i predict.
Welfare
Member
Xbox One had month long trade in deals, that's why the weekly average was flat. That hurt it in May, where it dropped 26%. That's almost the same % drop as May 2014 from April 2014 (price drop announcement), when April -> May was a 30% drop.
I alredy knew that, indeed, XB1 is not dropped so hard like in April 2014, when is dropped by a massive 63%.
March was also the Titanfall month, but still... HUGE drop.
PS4 seem a best example, it sold 340,000 in March, and 174,000 in April, which is a 49% MOM drop and a -36% weekly drop.
I think Uncharted 4, Quantum Break, and the possible deals in April can have the same effect of the XB1 deals in April 2015.
That's why i expect the weekly sales to be flat / a bit down MOM.
Yeah, i think that's safe.
Boombloxer
Member
Free TR and no multiplayer vs one of the generations most anticipated titles with single and multiplayer. Also not including Ratchet, which has a movie tie-in.
Nah, don't see it.
spatenfloot
Member
The question is "how many smaller games could they make using the budget and resources that they spend on a AAA game?"
slavesnyder
Member
But how is the hit/flop ratio on those?
AAA companies need AAA games. Small games could be nice for image reasons and small revenue bumps, but that's all.
spatenfloot
Member
Have you SEEN Quantum Break? I haven't.
I suspect it will underperform badly though.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Uncharted 4 + Ratchet and Clank vs QB.
MS took the month with their biggest title and Sony will do the same with one of their own.
spatenfloot
Member
We know that R&C will launch along with the movie. The last game like that on PS4 was Battlefront. Therefore, Ratchet & Clank will sell millions.
Seem legit!
Well, look at it this way. Yes, MKX had all month for NPD. But maybe MKX sold in majority in first week. Maybe 90% of total sales. Same thing for TLOU.
1 week should be enough for Uncharted 4 + early preorders for bundle and for the game.
Obliterator
Member
UC4 aint launching anywhere near Destiny size
I haven't been following this discussion too closely, but really? We can't be satisfied with discussing the biggest month of the year. We can't even be bothered to talk about the next 3 months. Therefore, we need to jump to April discussions? :lol Mightn't we want to see what happens with PS4's price in January/February? Maybe see if XB1 tries to get a $50 leg up on PS4 again? Didn't we learn from discussion of XB1's dominance of October in the Summer before a PS4 price drop was announced that skewed much of our assumptions?
Anyways, carry on! (^_^)
I saw a lot of People talking about April and i thought was funny.
Major sales are during first week, but there is no way For be 90%, or even 80%...
( Mortal Kombat )
gundamkyoukai
Member
I sure no one is expecting that .
If they get near or pass TLOU that would be a success.
donny, April will be interesting.
How do you define what is most anticipated. I don't think there is anything but previous sales in a franchise that can be used and Uncharted is not one of the biggest in those.
CosmicQueso
Member
April?
Who gives a f&%( about April?
What?
Who gives a f&%( about April?
What?
