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[Crash Station]

I really don't think how the Wii U is selling has any real bearing on how the the PS4 and Durango will do next January and February.

There are fundamental problems with the Wii U, which they won't have.

And I think the comparison to 2006 indicates that even with "last gen" systems like the PS3 and 360 still selling relatively well, new systems don't necessarily have to sink to the levels the Wii U is currently seeing.

I don't think Sony and MS are exempt from massive fuck ups either. It's probably less likely though.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

I gotta say, I'm somewhat enjoying this new shtick you've decided to run with lately. An improvement anyway.

lol, well the way the majority pronounces something as dead or irrelevant it matches the atmosphere.

 

[farnham]

I gotta say, I'm somewhat enjoying this new shtick you've decided to run with lately. An improvement anyway.

Downsizing if you cant sell is just about as importing as expanding if your doing well. Nintendo failed at the latter so they now better do the former right.

 

[StevieP]

Seriously.

There's no way in hell the Ps4 and the next Xbox will underperform like the Wii U. Look at the current charts. People still prefer their Sony and MS consoles. And that's thanks to the support.

Nintendo was just lucky with the Wii. Now it's back to normal status. And by normal I mean Gamecube-N64

They will not underperform relative to the Wii U (frankly, I don't think that's possible). However, they will underperform relative to expectations.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Nor does it mean PS4 & Durango will sell well. Too many unknown variables right now. I expect strong sales from their launch until early 2014 just because hardcore people will flock to them. But, if both launch during the same week, who knows what will happen.

Once launch lineups and prices are announced way down the line, we'll have a better picture.

The problem is, the more time progresses, the more I think one needs to consider the possibility that the Wii U is simply a fundamentally flawed and unappealing product for the US market.

Considering the $599 PS3, with this advertising:

And not exactly the best of line-ups managed to sell better.

There are issues with the core philosophy of the product, imo, that are simply not harmonious with the (early adopter, at least) market beyond Nintendo's core following.

It really doesnt to be honest, but if talking about next gen system I guess just use the current one out as example which is no doubt not very wise, but hey. Its kinda too early to tell which kind of problems they may have there could be all kinds of issues let alone the rumors of stuff like "always online" and "no used games".

Semantics. Gen 4. Whatever you want to call it.

I'm going to hazard to say in the eyes of the market the Wii U isn't a new generation of hardware; it's a late-to-the-party contemporary of the PS3 and 360 with no back-catalog, less games coming for it, and apparently inferior networked services. Oh, and a touch screen.

Sure they could have other issues, but they won't have these issues.

 

[Shaanyboi]

So we don't have three new Wii U games launching in literally a week's time? Ok then.

Monster Hunter which, as history has repeatedly shown, isn't a big deal here in the west.
A late port of Need for Speed being charged at full price
and Lego City, which, hey, has the best chance of doing pretty well.

These three are also coming out on the same date, in the same month as God of War, Gears of War, Bioshock, Tomb Raider, etc which will all likely be soaking most of the attention of the gaming media, as well as the enthusiast crowd.

I want the WiiU to do well, but come on, we gotta be realistic here.

 

[sleepykyo]

Let's hope the PS4 / 720 at least mirrors the 360 / PS3 adoption curve. If not, we'll be in trouble.

The 720 should be ok with Halo 5 and Ryse. I just can't see Killzone selling PS4s. The series hasn't been able to become huge on two different platforms already.

Next gen is going be pretty bad for consoles though.

 

[Sandfox]

The 720 should be ok with Halo 5 and Ryse. I just can't see Killzone selling PS4s. The series hasn't been able to become huge on two different platforms already.

Next gen is going be pretty bad for consoles though.

Halo 5 probably won't be out until late 2014 at the very least.

 

[Aquamarine]

Is there a graph with ps3, 360 too, just for comparison sake

I'll make one.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

If Wii U is 64k, we know the total Nintendio eco system numbers, and we know 360 accounted for 41%, shouldn't we be close to figuring out PS3 numbers? Without doing any calculations, I'm guessing its somewhere around 275k?

 

[shinra-bansho]

If Wii U is 64k, we know the total Nintendio eco system numbers, and we know 360 accounted for 41%, shouldn't we be close to figuring out PS3 numbers? Without doing any calculations, I'm guessing its somewhere around 275k?

262K or thereabouts. Wii U is 66K.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

They will not underperform relative to the Wii U (frankly, I don't think that's possible). However, they will underperform relative to expectations.

What are the expectations?

 

[Gorillaz]

The 720 should be ok with Halo 5 and Ryse. I just can't see Killzone selling PS4s. The series hasn't been able to become huge on two different platforms already.

Next gen is going be pretty bad for consoles though.

Wat?

Halo 5 ain't launching with the 720....your lucky to even get a 2014 launch. Maybe a halo 2 anniversary game. 720 will fall back on new IP's and 3rd party for the first few years

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

The problem is, the more time progresses, the more I think one needs to consider the possibility that the Wii U is simply a fundamentally flawed and unappealing product for the US market.

Considering the $599 PS3, with this advertising:

And not exactly the best of line-ups managed to sell better.

There are issues with the core philosophy of the product, imo, that are simply not harmonious with the (early adopter, at least) market beyond Nintendo's core following.

Semantics. Gen 4.

Whatever you want to call it.

I'm going to hazard to say in the eyes of the market the Wii U isn't a new generation of hardware; it's a late-to-the-party contemporary of the PS3 and 360 with no back-catalog, less games coming for it, and apparently inferior networked services. Oh, and a touch screen.

Sure they could have other issues, but they won't have these issues.

I dont think the hardware means anything. Even blackops 2, asscreed, darksiders whatever had a "most wanted" jump in graphics it would still be in the same situation. The market is just not attracted to it in its current state. Its basically a more expensive Ps3/360 software wise with 2 quiet Nintendo games. Even so 360/PS3 has it beat in online feature wise, and 3rd party games that Wii U dont have.

 

[NateDrake]

The problem is, the more time progresses, the more I think one needs to consider the possibility that the Wii U is simply a fundamentally flawed and unappealing product for the US market.

Considering the $599 PS3, with this advertising:
And not exactly the best of line-ups managed to sell better.

There are issues with the core philosophy of the product, imo, that are simply not harmonious with the (early adopter, at least) market beyond Nintendo's core following.

Semantics. Gen 4. Whatever you want to call it.

I'm going to hazard to say in the eyes of the market the Wii U isn't a new generation of hardware; it's a late-to-the-party contemporary of the PS3 and 360 with no back-catalog, less games coming for it, and apparently inferior networked services. Oh, and a touch screen.

Sure they could have other issues, but they won't have these issues.

I just expect a slower adoption rate to next-gen systems, in general. With Sony/MS launching, likely, at the same time, one system could suffer a result. It'll depend on pricing and software from each company. I think MS has the advantage, but Sony certainly has momentum coming off the PS4 unveiling.

 

[AdventureRacing]

I just expect a slower adoption rate to next-gen systems, in general. With Sony/MS launching, likely, at the same time, one system could suffer a result. It'll depend on pricing and software from each company. I think MS has the advantage, but Sony certainly has momentum coming off the PS4 unveiling.

I expect both the PS4 and 720 to do much better at launch than either the 360 or PS3. I'm sure some would disagree but i'm pretty confident about how the home console market will perform next gen and i don't think it's facing as much of a decline as the handheld market. Of course we will have to see what they both have to offer and also at what price.

I gotta say, I'm somewhat enjoying this new shtick you've decided to run with lately. An improvement anyway.

Shame he couldn't change it in the GSL threads as well.

 

[Aquamarine]

Is there a graph with ps3, 360 too, just for comparison sake

I'll make one.

Okay, here it is.

Orange = Wii
Green = 360
Purple = PS3
...
Blue = GameCube
Red = Wii U

The PS3's software drought + insanely high price caused an incredible slowdown throughout most of 2007. Also, keep in mind that the PS3 + 360 + Wii had to suffer through lots of supply issues.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

What put the Wii up in oct-nov? Galaxy? Or simply Holiday season?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I dont think the hardware means anything. Even blackops 2, asscreed, darksiders whatever had a "most wanted" jump in graphics it would still be in the same situation. The market is just not attracted to it in its current state. Its basically a more expensive Ps3/360 software wise with 2 quiet Nintendo games. Even so 360/PS3 has it beat in online feature wise, and 3rd party games that Wii U dont have.

A "NFS: Most Wanted jump" likely isn't a sufficient upgrade to upgrade. This hardware means nothing, graphics mean nothing mantra that's continually repeated rings hollow.

Consumers would not have bought the PS1 if it wasn't an upgrade from the SNES.
Consumers would not have bought the PS2 if it wasn't an upgrade from the PS1.
Consumers would not have bought the PS3/360 if it wasn't an upgrade from the PS2.

Every generational transition in recent history has been sold on the promise of greater hardware power delivering new games not possible before, with the exception of one - the Wii. To deny that is folly.

The Wii stands out as an anomaly. A market disruptor, that hasn't been repeated.

Regarding, the EDIT: underlined, that's essentially what I just said. Except that isn't it's "current state" that's fundamentally what the system is except later it will have more Nintendo games.

There isn't any incentive for someone who owns a PS3 or 360 to make a generational transition to the Wii U - there isn't a discernible upgrade; and I can't see what Nintendo intend to do or even can do that will change that.

 

[MikeE21286]

Okay, here it is.

Orange = Wii
Green = 360
Purple = PS3
...
Blue = GameCube
Red = Wii U

The PS3's software drought + insanely high price caused an incredible slowdown throughout most of 2007. Also, keep in mind that the PS3 + 360 + Wii had to suffer through lots of supply issues.

What was the lowest monthly total for the PS3 during this time frame (which would be its lowest ever as well)?

82k?

 

[farnham]

I'll make one.

Thanks

 

[Aquamarine]

What was the lowest monthly total for the PS3 during this time frame (which would be its lowest ever as well)?

82k?

Yep. The GameCube's lowest was 61.7K (January 2002), and the PS3's lowest was 82K (April-May 2007).

The Wii U hitting 57K last month was an all-time record low.

 

[farnham]

So what would be the best exit scenario to nintendo without loosing too much face? They did a recall on virtual boy right?

Okay, here it is.

Orange = Wii
Green = 360
Purple = PS3
...
Blue = GameCube
Red = Wii U

The PS3's software drought + insanely high price caused an incredible slowdown throughout most of 2007. Also, keep in mind that the PS3 + 360 + Wii had to suffer through lots of supply issues.

I have a feeling iwata is going to get the boot on april 14th

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

A "NFS: Most Wanted jump" likely isn't a sufficient upgrade to upgrade. This hardware means nothing, graphics mean nothing mantra that's continually repeated rings hollow.

Consumers would not have bought the PS1 if it wasn't an upgrade from the SNES.
Consumers would not have bought the PS2 if it wasn't an upgrade from the PS1.
Consumers would not have bought the PS3/360 if it wasn't an upgrade from the PS2.

Every generational transition in recent history has been sold on the promise of greater hardware power delivering new games not possible before, with the exception of one - the Wii. To deny that is folly.

The Wii stands out as an anomaly. A market disruptor, that hasn't been repeated.

Regarding, the italicized, that's essentially what I just said. Except that isn't it's "current state" that's fundamentally what the system is except later it will have more Nintendo games.

There isn't any incentive for someone who owns a PS3 or 360 to make a generational transition to the Wii U; and I can't see what Nintendo intend to do or even can do that will change that.

Graphics will not mean much to the mainstream I bet. Pretty sure there will be people satisfied playing MW4 in 360 over 720. I wont for sure but I think we are at a point where graphics will be mattering less and less that argument can only last for so long.

 

[farnham]

I gotta say, I'm somewhat enjoying this new shtick you've decided to run with lately. An improvement anyway.

You call it shtick but nintendo has bombed in NA and EU and is not generating money. You gotta go if you dont generate money. If you maintain business you have to pay rent, pay salaries, pay for marketing, pay for localization etc.

 

[pieatorium]

Graphics will not mean much to the mainstream I bet. Pretty sure there will be people satisfied playing MW4 in 360 over 720. I wont for sure but I think we are at a point where graphics will be mattering less and less that argument can only last for so long.

What he is saying is the people who bought PS3's and 360's 6-7 years ago are the ones who are looking for a PS4/720 not the mainstream. The people fine playing MW and BF on 360/PS3 are the ones who bought one in the last couple of years and were never going to be the early adopter crowd anyway.

 

[Aquamarine]

So what would be the best exit scenario to nintendo without loosing too much face? They did a recall on virtual boy right?I have a feeling iwata is going to get the boot on april 14th

It all depends on how profitable Nintendo is as a company. The bottom line. That's what matters to Nintendo.

And that depends very much on the strength of the yen. The Wii U may be a money sink, but all it has to do is be stagnant for the time being, and if the 3DS can make it up in profits, Nintendo will be all right.

Unfortunately, Nintendo has a lot riding on the Wii U. It isn't an ill-fated experiment they can just recall. If Nintendo pulls the Wii U out early, it will SEVERELY damage their relationship with all consumers and very likely create a Sega Saturn-esque situation where any future console would be unsustainable.

 

[farnham]

It all depends on how profitable on how profitable Nintendo is as a company. The bottom line. That's what matters to Nintendo.

And that depends very much on the strength of the yen. The Wii U may be a money sink, but all it has to do is be stagnant in profits for the time being, and if the 3DS can make it up in profits, Nintendo will be all right.

Unfortunately, Nintendo has a lot riding on the Wii U. It isn't an ill-fated experiment they can just recall. If Nintendo pulls the Wii U out early, it will SEVERELY damage their relationship with all consumers and very likely create a Sega Saturn-esque situation where any future console would be unsustainable.

I guess monetary refund will not cut it. At the sametime if you want to pull the plug pull it asap. A gamecube like failure will not bode well for them especially since the cost for software development has risen

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

What he is saying is the people who bought PS3's and 360's 6-7 years ago are the ones who are looking for a PS4/720 not the mainstream. The people fine playing MW and BF on 360/PS3 are the ones who bought one in the last couple of years and were never going to be the early adopter crowd anyway.

Is this what you mean Shinra? Maybe Im misunderstanding.

 

[Black Republican]

Ni no kuni ~ 50k this month, and better than DMC (360+PS3).

good for Ni no, as for DMC..... atleast i can wait for the bomba prices, nice going Ninja Theory!

 

[axisofweevils]

Wii U sales up 40% - there's no way you could call that good, but considering the lack of games (Thanks, Ubisoft!), it could have been worse.

 

[Aquamarine]

What put the Wii up in oct-nov? Galaxy? Or simply Holiday season?

Wii's unprecedented craze that swept the nation. It was the latest fad...everyone had to have one.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Wii U sales up 40% - there's no way you could call that good, but considering the lack of games (Thanks, Ubisoft!), it could have been worse.

Can you really blame Ubi tho?

 

[farnham]

Can you really blame Ubi tho?

The only one to blame is nintendo for making 2 first party games and calling it a day. They are not sony or microsoft

I still think the game would have sold more and made far more of an impact on Wii U at the moment, than it will when its multiplatform and trying to compete against GTA and the new Durbis consoles.

Thats also true. Still nintendo should have moneyhatted them

 

[axisofweevils]

Can you really blame Ubi tho?

I still think the game would have sold more and made far more of an impact on Wii U at the moment, than it will when its multiplatform and trying to compete against GTA and the new Durbis consoles.

 

[CadetMahoney]

It's probably the only thing that is keeping the Vita from being straight up discontinued in the West.

Hate to see what happens during a drought.

Vita ~ 38k

damn, and that's with killer app - cod

Perfectly explains why they're in absolutely no hurry whatsoever to divulge anything about the Durango and take momentum away from their current platform.

Yea, I think Sony was trying so hard to with the rumors and whatnot to force a response from MS and they didn't blink.

 

[Aquamarine]

I guess monetary refund will not cut it. At the sametime if you want to pull the plug pull it asap. A gamecube like failure will not bode well for them especially since the cost for software development has risen

Nintendo's future as a home console manufacturer may be bleak....but they still potentially have a future as a handheld console manufacturer. Nintendo still has fans and doesn't want to jeopardize their goodwill.

I know I would certainly be pissed if Nintendo suddenly decided to discontinue all support for the Wii U I invested in.

 

[B.O.O.M]

I still think the game would have sold more and made far more of an impact on Wii U at the moment, than it will when its multiplatform and trying to compete against GTA and the new Durbis consoles.

Given the current software sales I'm not sure I would agree with that. Guess we will never know

The only one to blame is nintendo for making 2 first party games and calling it a day. They are not sony or microsoft

THey really should have prepared better that's for sure

 

[pswii60]

Can anyone tell me PS2's monthly hardware sales for this time in its life compared to 360? ie 7 years and 3 months in to its lifecycle (Feb 2008)?

 

[farnham]

Nintendo's future as a home console manufacturer may be bleak....but they still potentially have a future as a handheld console manufacturer. Nintendo still has fans and doesn't want to jeopardize their goodwill.

I know I would certainly be pissed if Nintendo suddenly decided to discontinue all support for the Wii U I invested in.

Even if they would compensate you? Recalling wiiu and just all inning on 3ds, as you imply, may be better for them.

Incredible how you can fall from first place to dead last in one generation. Usually it takes two.

 

[Aquamarine]

Even if they would compensate you?

Well, it's deflating. I'd be extraordinarily hesitant to invest in another console after seeing how gung-ho Nintendo is on giving up when the sales get slow.

 

[Pachterballs]

Hate to see what happens during a drought.


damn, and that's with killer app - cod


Yea, I think Sony was trying so hard to with the rumors and whatnot to force a response from MS and they didn't blink.

well, do you think MS would have had that april event if sony didn't do theirs? Of course they're not going to scurry and react making them look like chimps. They did.. blink.

 

[AniHawk]

Can anyone tell me PS2's monthly hardware sales for this time in its life compared to 360? ie 7 years and 3 months in to its lifecycle (Feb 2008)?

7 years, 3 months would be january 2008. it sold 265k units. in february 2008, it sold 352k units.

 

[Nightstick11]

Fire Emblem Awakening deserves to sell more than every other game combined. Looking at the Top Ten list almost makes me hope for an industry crash, at least to sift out the riff-raff. Alien: Colonial Marines charted? Really?

 

[pswii60]

7 years, 3 months would be january 2008. it sold 206k units.

Thanks. Perhaps Feb 2008 would be a slightly better comparison in this case - do you have those?

 

[CadetMahoney]

Vita ~ 38k

It's probably the only thing that is keeping the Vita from being straight up discontinued in the West.

Still, at 44% cod was a "big" seller and despite a very poor MC rating too.

well, do you think MS would have had that april event if sony didn't do theirs? Of course they're not going to scurry and react making them look like chimps. They did.. blink.

They haven't divulged any real info or reacted to something in particular. . . and their announcement was scheduled to go first then pushed back to april (before Sony revealed anything). So I don't see how they're in any rush or anything, esp when it was delayed before Sony revealed anything.

 

[AniHawk]

Thanks. Perhaps Feb 2008 would be a slightly better comparison in this case - do you have those?

edited my post. i had grabbed the wrong month earlier. the ps2 was essentially a beast for 2008, but died down towards the end of the year.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Is this what you mean Shinra? Maybe Im misunderstanding.

Somewhat. I said earlier in the thread: the market buying the PS3 and 360 now are not the same as the market that bought the PS3 and 360 initially. And for the latter, being a suitable upgrade does matter.

The Wii U seems more and more to be fundamentally flawed for the early adopter market, beyond the Nintendo core; which is why I imagine it's collapsed completely after launch.

 

[Basileus777]

well, do you think MS would have had that april event if sony didn't do theirs?

Yes. They'd want to get it out before E3 in any scenario.

 

[Pachterballs]

Ni no kuni ~ 50k this month, and better than DMC (360+PS3).

that doesn't include DD yes? I wonder just what the LTD of ni no kuni is all up right now.