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NPD Sales Results for February 2015 [Nintendo Numbers, Majora's, MH4, ~XB1]

heidern

Junior Member
Did we get any hints of the last-gen numbers?

"Home console hardware declined 5 percent as gains in eighth-generation console sales could not offset the 41 percent loss in dollar sales of seventh generation hardware,” NPD analyst Liam Callahan said."

Last Feb it was:
360: 114K
PS3: 103K

In terms of PS4 pricing, Sony will do price cuts based on what is best for their worldwide sales trajectory. They don't need to really worry about competing with MS because people will be buying the PS4 to play the best versions of COD, AC, MGS etc.

MS on the other hand will suffer from some diminishing returns as they won't replicate the impact of last November where the price of entry was close to half what it was at launch(considering bundles). I guess they could go for $249 bundles this year, but then they'll get the diminishing returns the next few years.
 

JaggedSac

Member
Microsoft only reports gross profit at the division level, it is basically impossible to know whether their hardware division makes money as operating costs are not included in the figures.

Do they not include operating costs in any capacity in the reports?

In any case, any statement about money lost or gained from XBone is a tale from a derriere.
 
Every time Microsoft has a big game people immediately jump on the "bundle" band-wagon.

Why?

Do people not realize the point of big games is to actually make money off the game? And that by bundling it you immediately lose some of that?

I understand some bundles will happen. But if every single game they make of note gets bundled you are seriously killing profits, and for what? So that your next game will get bundled too?
 

BadWolf

Member
Every time Microsoft has a big game people immediately jump on the "bundle" band-wagon.

Why?

Do people not realize the point of big games is to actually make money off the game? And that by bundling it you immediately lose some of that?

I understand some bundles will happen. But if every single game they make of note gets bundled you are seriously killing profits, and for what? So that your next game will get bundled too?

They themselves have set that precedent, look at Titanfall and Sunset Overdrive.
 

Nuszka

Member
It is all speculation right now but let me weigh in. I think that 343i lost a lot of credibility with the release of MCC so i for once will wait with a day1 purchase of H5 (big fan here) , TR will not make a big impact if it will be not well advertised as MS "exclusive" - general opinion of a game that is available on all platforms. When Sony does not bring any exclusives to the table it will not change much. My theory is that this holiday season will be under the banner of Star Wars , anything to do with that brand will bring sales and the company who scores a deal with EA on exclusive content for Battlefront(if it releases this fall) will have the upper hand. Nov, Dec will belong to Star Wars, so i think it would be wise for MS to release new Halo and TR before that period.
 

Tom_Cody

Member
This isn't talked about enough, but yes, Capcom's producers are very smart to not give up on Monster Hunter in America.

The smart money told them to stop a long time ago, that MH would never succeed in America, that it's a Japanese series with a Japanese mentality that can't find a foothold in this new, modern game industry. And 300k isn't the biggest deal in the world, they're at least at the ballgame, which very few people could have predicted five years ago.

I think one question to consider now is this - what do you do with Monster Hunter in America now? We forget that this is MH4 2nd Edition. We didn't get MH4 The First. Is this the new gameplan for America, wait for the revision and release that? Or release the first one, then release the revision? Is that something that will fly in the west?

It's at the ballgame, now there's a lot more questions that need to be answered about the future of the series outside of Japan.
I think it is very possible that we'll get some type of console version of 4U, even if it is only a mildly upgraded port of 4U. If Revelaitons 1 made the jump from 3DS to console, so can Monster Hunter.

Monster Hunter's 3rd Generation consisted of (I hope this is complete):

Monster Hunter 3/Tri (Wii)
Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (PSP)
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate/G (3DS, Wii U)

So far the 4th generation only has 4 and 4 U/G. As for 5, god only knows. It will probably won't come out until 2016 or 2017. Given that, I think it's definitely possible that they will try to stretch out 4 for another few releases. I think we might get one more 3DS release, with that release also coming to consoles in some form. The relative success of those releases will probably dictate what they do with the series going forward.

/wild speculation
 
Do they not include operating costs in any capacity in the reports?

In any case, any statement about money lost or gained from XBone is a tale from a derriere.

Not at the division level:

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op...Assets/Downloads/FY15/Q2/MSFT_FY15Q2_10Q.docx

Page 31 of this report shows the gross margin for the gaming division, but on the page below they only show the operating profit for the whole consumer division which includes Windows licences sold to consumer channels so is completely useless.

There is no way of judging whether Xbox makes or loses money.
 
Microsoft only reports gross profit at the division level, it is basically impossible to know whether their hardware division makes money as operating costs are not included in the figures.

And, IIRC, Microsoft's Android payments go into the division that they put Xbox and Surface in, so that alone could buoy the division into profitability even if the products aren't doing that well.
 

sörine

Banned
Both Sony and Microsoft have obfuscated their closed games boxes performance in recent years with division reorgs and creative accounting.

Only Nintendo is being fully transparent with this stuff and even they're giving out less info when possible (investor meetings).
 

Tom_Cody

Member
The Order also cost a lot more then MH4U to make, 290k for MH4U is a huge success for Capcom, only about 300k for The Order is probably not as big a success if it's a success at all. Hard to imagine those graphics were cheap to make.
The 290k is trivial compared to the 2.7 million copies MH4U already sold in Japan. Even more so when you consider that 4U is essentially an expansion pack to MH4 vanhilla, which has already sold 4.1 million copies.

The Order is a disaster and MH4U is a mega hit.
 

Kyoufu

Member
I would have agreed with you a week ago.

But with uncharted delayed, I'm not so sure anymore.

I have a gut feeling we're gonna have a repeat of holiday 2014. Except this time Ms is gonna have Halo 5 and tomb raider.

We'll see what Sony has for e3, but right now it seems like nothing, which is even worse than last year. At least last year they had lpb3.

Losing Uncharted 4 is a big blow, but Uncharted 4 was never really a 2015 game, so Sony has had a long time to prepare for this. Surely they have something up their sleeves?

Personally, I think a price cut worldwide would make sense, and before anyone counters this with "bububut it's selling like hotcakes" then I'd like to remind them that PS2 dropped price when it was also selling like hotcakes.
 

Tom_Cody

Member
Great news for Monster Hunter!

Nice to see Monster Hunter landed there! I'm hoping it does well enough to encourage future international support even if they can't capture all of Japan's success, doubly so without the disadvantage DQ can have (mounds upon mounds of text to translate.)
Ironically, it has more text than most RPGs (although maybe not DQ titles).

To start with MH is essential an action RPG series (by loose definition) and this one actually has a fairly robust story. Beyond that, there are thousands of items that all needed to be translated/renamed. The head of localization ran a blog leading up the game's release and this is one of the topics he mentioned.

/Randomness
 
MS is 100% Guaranteed going to do a $299 Halo 5 and/or Tomb Raider bundle this year, you can take it to the bank. They already did a $320 Master Chief bundle at Walmart last year. It will happen even if Sony stays at $399. I can't even imagine what they'd do if PS4 dropped to $299.
Yeah, I agree, MS will almost surely drop to $299, and I think it will be an official WW pricecut, not just for the US.

I'll take the bet. This year Sony will drop the price to 299$ permanently.



First month less than 120K I think. No idea about LTD, I didn't see it leaked.
Alright!! Your on!
But just remember, limited deals don't count.

Also, interesting about SSO numbers.

I wonder if it would have sold about the same as TO 1886 for it's first month if it would have had the same amount of days tracking....I wouldn't be surprised if thier LTDs end up very similar.
 
Bloodborne is going to do gangbusters. 500k in its first month is conservative.

Late responding to this...but I'd love some of what you are "dabbling" in if you think Bloodborne will clear 500K in the US first month. For comparison, Evolve across 3 platforms sold 500K....It will be lucky to sell more than The Order.
 

vpance

Member
Not at the division level:

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op...Assets/Downloads/FY15/Q2/MSFT_FY15Q2_10Q.docx

Page 31 of this report shows the gross margin for the gaming division, but on the page below they only show the operating profit for the whole consumer division which includes Windows licences sold to consumer channels so is completely useless.

There is no way of judging whether Xbox makes or loses money.

If it did make money they'd probably separate it out. So I guess we should infer the opposite.
 
I predict that by the end of the year the gap between PS4 and X1 in America will be between 300-500k. Unless PS4 drops price which I highly doubt.
 
No but the question is this: will those games encourage Xbox fans to spend three times the amount of hours the average user spends on social networks? If not, they can pack it up, PS4 won't need any exclusives to counter.

This is what I don't get - if you use the TV HDMI-in doesn't the console have to be always-on and connected to Live even if you're watching TVTVTV? So they collect numbers Live access even if the user is watching The Price is (Just About) Right?
 

jcm

Member
"Home console hardware declined 5 percent as gains in eighth-generation console sales could not offset the 41 percent loss in dollar sales of seventh generation hardware,” NPD analyst Liam Callahan said."

Last Feb it was:
360: 114K
PS3: 103K

Thanks, that's helpful.
 

Chuck

Still without luck
oZ55XgP.gif
Yo what's this from?
 

Boke1879

Member
It is all speculation right now but let me weigh in. I think that 343i lost a lot of credibility with the release of MCC so i for once will wait with a day1 purchase of H5 (big fan here) , TR will not make a big impact if it will be not well advertised as MS "exclusive" - general opinion of a game that is available on all platforms. When Sony does not bring any exclusives to the table it will not change much. My theory is that this holiday season will be under the banner of Star Wars , anything to do with that brand will bring sales and the company who scores a deal with EA on exclusive content for Battlefront(if it releases this fall) will have the upper hand. Nov, Dec will belong to Star Wars, so i think it would be wise for MS to release new Halo and TR before that period.

I guess it's already being heavily rumored and suggested here that Sony already has a partnership with EA with Battlefront.

I think if that's the case Sony really doesn't need an exclusive this holiday even though I'm sure they will have one.
 

Cheebo

Banned
The Microsoft war chest is why the Zune beat the iPod, and why we all use Windows Phones, and...lol.

That argument needs to die.
Microsofts warchest is much bigger than Sony and Nintendo.

Their warchest is MUCH smaller than Apple. Not nearly as comparable.
 
The big question is will those 2 games redeem the Xbox One?

I don't know. I think that they will boost X1 sales significantly, but as far as 'saving' it.....well first of all it doesn't need saving in the US or UK....it is mainly the rest of the world that it struggles in, and so if we are talking about the rest of world, then I think that no, these games will not make a big difference at all.

But as far as the PS4 not having anything to combat it....I have a feeling that Sony has something big up it's sleeve...
I find it interesting though how thier spring lineups are seeming stronger than thier fall lineups....
This year we have BB and The Order, and possibly Tearaway for summer...
And for the Fall, the only thing we know that we might get is Until Dawn, and maybe Deep Down?
And next Spring we will have Street Fighter V and Uncharted 4....just think about that for a minute or two...
 
Late responding to this...but I'd love some of what you are "dabbling" in if you think Bloodborne will clear 500K in the US first month. For comparison, Evolve across 3 platforms sold 500K....It will be lucky to sell more than The Order.

Agree. It only has like one week of tracking, so ~200-250k would be considered very good for them I think.
 
If it did make money they'd probably separate it out. So I guess we should infer the opposite.

At this point, unless it's doing absolutely spectacularly (i.e. GTA 5), gaming companies are obfuscating the numbers even if they're good. For example, see Activision with Destiny sales, or EA with Titanfall sales.
 
Regarding The Order, we don't know.

Even if Sony greenlits a sequel, we won't necessarily know.

Shu Yoshida once said that only 4 out of 10 games are 'profitable', and even amongst the profitable ones, the big hitters are the real money makers that make up for the losses of the 6 other games.
 

Xion_Stellar

People should stop referencing data that makes me feel uncomfortable because games get ported to platforms I don't like
I think it is very possible that we'll get some type of console version of 4U, even if it is only a mildly upgraded port of 4U. If Revelaitons 1 made the jump from 3DS to console, so can Monster Hunter.

Monster Hunter's 3rd Generation consisted of (I hope this is complete):

Monster Hunter 3/Tri (Wii)
Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (PSP)
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate/G (3DS, Wii U)

So far the 4th generation only has 4 and 4 U/G. As for 5, god only knows. It will probably won't come out until 2016 or 2017. Given that, I think it's definitely possible that they will try to stretch out 4 for another few releases. I think we might get one more 3DS release, with that release also coming to consoles in some form. The relative success of those releases will probably dictate what they do with the series going forward.

/wild speculation
Wild speculation indeed...
I just don't see where this is coming from and if feels more like port begging/wishful thinking to me.The series did good here in the US for the longest time but it's still nowhere near the millions it sells day 1 in Japan and simply put Console versions of Monster Hunter don't sell well enough in Capcom's eyes to justify making one not to mention Capcom already said its not happening (for MH4U) so the dream was dead before it began.
 
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