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[James Sawyer Ford]

<Sigh> I'll say this again: PS4's January #s are HIGHER than PS2's first January #s. PS4 is trending above the PS2. 6th gen was very lopsided but that didn't lead to a glut of subpar games or devs closing shop.

Yes, average game dev is higher cost today, but I'm seriously befuddled why people are taking these numbers and saying the console industry is dead/dying. It makes zero sense to me. XBO is about where OG XBox was in its first Jan. Wii U...probably below Gamecube but can't (hopefully) be that far off.

Right now it looks like PS4 will be picking up the slack from the other two, and I sure don't see the market collapsing. Maybe a reasonable contraction from last gen (Wii included), but I see a bump up in terms of core users and it's not like every casual's left the console market, either.

Agreed. This gen is looking to be a lot more like the PS2 gen. Only with Nintendo doing a lot weaker, and Microsoft managing to do a bit better (so far...) relative to the GC and original XB.

That gen was healthy, no reason to believe this gen won't be healthy. Nintendo and Microsoft made huge mistakes with their consoles, Sony did many things right. The market has spoken and just because this gen will be a lot more lopsided doesn't mean the industry is screwed.

 

[jiminycracken]

And then they say 'but America is the biggest market' as if that in some way negates sales in the entire world outside of America.

Japan console market is nearly dead and Europe isn't as big as the American market. The rest of the markets are pretty much small peas compared to those three giants.

Unless China suddenly gets really excited for console gaming this is basically a large amount of the market suddenly shrinking which means a decrease in demand which is not good news in the slightest.

For example, say that you produce a news show. Most of your audience is older people (65 and up), some is middle age and you used to have a large amount of young people watching your show but they no longer watch it. It's alright, because more older people came in to fill that gap. But say the 65+ group stops watching it. All you have left is some remnant of that group and middle age. That's what people are afraid is happening.

 

[Averon]

Wow.
PS3 and 360 completely collapsed the moment the XB1 and the PS4 came on the scene.

 

[NandN3DS]

Wii fit u's bomba was only slightly less predictable than the sun rising.

Wel,l it has been out as a digital download for a while now.

 

[Lexxism]

hey, maybe it's time to drop the price of the ps3/360 to some price below 250 fucking dollars. drop the price of the xbox one while you're at it.

They probably won't drop the price that easily after they lost a lot of money during their first 2-3 years or something.

 

[noobasuar]

No different than the mid tier developers they replaced.

I just don't see it. I feel like team sizes must have been somewhat larger than indie devs we have today. I'm just saying sometimes it doesn't feel like they can make something with huge scope. IDK I really just don't feel like they replace mid-tier studios. Indies can just be something else they don't need to be what something else was and that's fine.

 

[prag16]

<Sigh> I'll say this again: PS4's January #s are HIGHER than PS2's first January #s. PS4 is trending above the PS2. 6th gen was very lopsided but that didn't lead to a glut of subpar games or devs closing shop.

Yes, average game dev is higher cost today, but I'm seriously befuddled why people are taking these numbers and saying the console industry is dead/dying. It makes zero sense to me. XBO is about where OG XBox was in its first Jan. Wii U...probably below Gamecube but can't (hopefully) be that far off.

Right now it looks like PS4 will be picking up the slack from the other two, and I sure don't see the market collapsing. Maybe a reasonable contraction from last gen (Wii included), but I see a bump up in terms of core users and it's not like every casual's left the console market, either.

Don't forget the Wii U tracked ahead of PS360 early on. This long gen led to bigger than usual pent up demand out of the gate. The real test is happening now thru the first half of this year.

 

[Gorillaz]

The only silver lining I can see right now is the prospect of another PS3 price drop so I can finally play Demon's Souls and a few other exclusives.

PS3 should be like $99 now


Kaz pls

 

[FiggyCal]

.

Free to play games aren't much better.

 

[Tobor]

3DS is in need of a price cut. Dedicated handhelds should be $100-$150 for the mass market, maybe a bit higher at launch. Nintendo are suffering because they made the elementary mistake of targeting a $249 launch price. $169 is too high for three years in but a price cut hurts their bottom line.

They have a model at $129. Nobody cares.

 

[prwxv3]

The market is not going to spend $300+ to play a new Donkey Kong game.

He so joking

 

[ViewtifulJC]

The market is not going to spend $300+ to play a new Donkey Kong game.

Donkey Kong? Maybe not

Cranky Kong tho?

 

[Finalizer]

The market is not going to spend $300+ to play a new Donkey Kong game.

p sure there was a lil' humor in there

 

[Sandfox]

Difference is there's still every incentive to develop for both Xbone and PS4. So at the very least, it'll continue to get multiplatform games with PS4. Nintendo doesn't have that luxury and has no real western 3rd party support for either of it's platforms. At the least, it has japanese 3rd party support on the 3DS.

Have to wonder why 3DS numbers are declining though. It's not like it didn't have holiday titles.

Nintendo's devices are in trouble(though I think the 3DS could be helped somewhat with a few price reductions), but I find the MS situation more worrisome because they would probably quick to get out if Sony ate their lunch given all the things we've been hearing.

 

[sphagnum]

Ugh, if the console industry collapses I think I'll probably back out of most gaming. At least I'll always have the backlog...

 

[Jamix012]

The market is not going to spend $300+ to play a new Donkey Kong game.

Ok. I'm sure he was being serious.

Are we getting to the point where the Xbox division being scrapped could be a legitimate worry? Would be good for Sony and to a lesser extent Nintendo.

 

[sueil]

Vita please don't get discontinued. I love you too much and keep buying games for you. My favorite console in a long time.

 

[Y2Kev]

Hey I like Indie games but it's not like they excel in every single genre nor is every indie game some amazing experience.

Retro gaming is where it's at anyways.

Of course, but who thinks otherwise? The same is true for AAA games. My point is just that people should be less stupid about letting rigid monikers define the intrinsic quality of something. Retro, indie, AAA...it is ultimately meaningless about where quality comes from.

The "100 games coming to PS4 this year" thread was absolutely embarrassing and half the posters in there are the same people bitching about the "DROUGHT" for the console they bought 8 weeks ago while also bitching about how the graphics in Calladuty 10 are not good enough for them.

Where do you think the AAA industry is headed? I'm curious? Do you think the PS4 can carry the industry?

Carry? I don't know. The past few years has seen tremendous consolidation. Japan has completely refocused on handheld and mobile-- we're talking about maybe 2-3 relevant releases from non-Nintendo Japanese developers a year now on console. The West has seen an insane number of studios and publishers go down; those who didn't go down became massively less profitable or not profitable at all.

I think the PS4 is doing pretty damn awesome, so I'm not one of those annoying Wii U fans licking my lips at the chance that maybe the Wii U's failure isn't Nintendo's fault (to put it bluntly).

I do think people who say, "Third parties didn't really sell software on Wii so it is no big deal," have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

She's already holding Y2Kev.

Oh my

 

[Radec]

I don't get it.

Is wiifitu supposed to be big?

 

[NateDrake]

Don't forget the Wii U tracked ahead of PS360 early on. This long gen led to bigger than usual pent up demand out of the gate. The real test is happening now thru the first half of this year.

This. We need to see what PS4/X1 sales do in the coming months when they finally level-off. If the X1 continues to decline and goes to sub-100k levels and the PS4 balances at 100k or whatever, then we have an issue.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Donkey Kong? Maybe not

Cranky Kong tho?

If memory serves, the Wii U sold about 66k last February. I'm calling for 200k this year due to Cranky.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

It's not a parody post. I've been consistent on this point. I especially have been very consistent in my absolute contempt for the, "Indie games don't count," crowd. Those people can go get fucked while the industry burns.

Apologies, then. The "parody" quip was only regarding the console market stuff. I loathe the "indies aren't real games" shit as much as every other sane person.

But I still don't see the "industry collapse" everyone else keeps talking about. PS4 at least seems to be doing very well. Wii U isn't worth talking about and XBO...I just don't know about that one yet. It may not do as well as I thought it would (respectable, but profitable, 2nd).

Until PS4 starts trending below PS2 (or PS1, for that matter) long term, the industry'll be okay.

 

[AstroNut325]

If I had to guess the videogame market is gravitating to the extremes. Either you find success at the casual end of the market with iOS or you find success at the enthusiast end with PC/PS4 end. I just don't see a market for anything in between.

 

[Dragonborn]

I don't get it.

It's fitu supposed to be big?

No, Wii Fit U flopping was obvious.

 

[demigod]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=100278155&postcount=167

Well, looks like I was right about PS4 trouncing "The One". Although if I had to guess, I would've put Xbones number at 250k and PS4 at 450k. Those numbers are pretty sad for Xbone, that's worse than PS3's first January numbers. It will only get worse for MS. Titanfall will NOT save Xbone.

 

[pieatorium]

Europe isn't as big as the American market.

total markets been neck and neck for a few years now iirc, EU PC takes a bigger peice of the pie though

 

[FourMyle]

fitu < 20K




Too mach for all of them.

Wii U sub 55k? holy shit kill it now

 

[Kandinsky]

Nintendo, for the love of god, lower your 3DS software prices, do it man.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

If memory serves, the Wii U sold about 66k last February. I'm calling for 200k this year due to Cranky.

The important thing is to fill-out those Nintendo Club survey suggestion box: "I bought this because Cranky Kong". We can't let Nintendo confuse the message here.

 

[Taurus]

Agreed. This gen is looking to be a lot more like the PS2 gen. Only with Nintendo doing a lot weaker, and Microsoft managing to do a bit better (so far...) relative to the GC and original XB.

That gen was healthy, no reason to believe this gen won't be healthy. Nintendo and Microsoft made huge mistakes with their consoles, Sony did many things right. The market has spoken and just because this gen will be a lot more lopsided doesn't mean the industry is screwed.

You can't compare 2001 to 2014. Dev costs have rised so much that in its current form the devs and pubs won't make it. Haven't you seen the publisher's cries how 3-4 million sales are barely enough to break even? The dev costs have gone UP since then.

 

[Nirolak]

I don't get it.

It's fitu supposed to be big?

The market for that doesn't really exist on consoles anymore IMO, but Wii Fit did sell 31.89 million copies, so I don't think it's overly shocking that some people would be rather surprised at its performance.

 

[quest]

Agreed. This gen is looking to be a lot more like the PS2 gen. Only with Nintendo doing a lot weaker, and Microsoft managing to do a bit better (so far...) relative to the GC and original XB.

That gen was healthy, no reason to believe this gen won't be healthy. Nintendo and Microsoft made huge mistakes with their consoles, Sony did many things right. The market has spoken and just because this gen will be a lot more lopsided doesn't mean the industry is screwed.

Well except development costs are a lot more now. So if MS and Nintendo put up basically combined GC+OXBOX then it be basically over for the hobbie. The Sony can't carry the industry alone anymore. And if the PS4 sellls less than 150 million we are at pre PS2 market levels. It is scary stuff thankfully my last gen of gaming. Feel bad for the younger gamers though with the mobile free to play crap as the future.

 

[BlackJace]

If I had to guess the videogame market is gravitating to the extremes. Either you find success at the casual end of the market with iOS or you find success at the enthusiast end with PC/PS4 end. I just don't see a market for anything in between.

Then we are truly fucked.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Nintendo is fucked. A lot of people where wondering what would happen of the 3ds was not selling ok. Welp we are going to find out. And vita lol

Iwata's going to drive that ship right into the ground. Fucking health products. I bet he took the best talent at Nintendo and made them work on it also. He already said they were going to use existing resources for it on the conference call. It will be entertaining when it crashes and burns, even though I was a huge Nintendo fan from the NES to the Nintendo 64. They deserve what they will get.

 

[Y2Kev]

Apologies, then. The "parody" quip was only regarding the console market stuff. I loathe the "indies aren't real games" shit as much as every other sane person.

But I still don't see the "industry collapse" everyone else keeps talking about. PS4 at least seems to be doing very well. Wii U isn't worth talking about and XBO...I just don't know about that one yet. It may not do as well as I thought it would (respectable, but profitable, 2nd).

Until PS4 starts trending below PS2 (or PS1, for that matter) long term, the industry'll be okay.

Because the market has to expand. Costs have gone way, way up. Profits are way, way down.

There is a point where the opportunity cost of making a console game is just going to be so high.

And let's be real. The PS4 is not going to match the PS2.

 

[reKon]

What happened to the guy who had his name changed by a mod to The One or something? Didn't bet his account that Xbox One would beat the PS4 in January NPD?

 

[N.Domixis]

I guess titan fall is coming to ps4 sooner than we thought.

 

[Teletraan1]

I expected the 360 to fall faster than the PS3 because of both systems respective end of life strategies. MS basically said fuck 360 a while ago, Sony didn't treat the PS3 like that. PS3 will have a much longer tail due to this and it still being a pretty solid media device. Especially if they can get the cost/price down further. This will all continue to lay the foundations on emerging markets as well. It probably wont be as cost effective as they were able to get the PS2 so it wont match the PS2s sales post successor launch obviously but these sales still have value in a long term way rather than an immediate investor/stockholder now now now focused way or at least whoever is cultivating this strategy thinks so.

PS3 and 360 were never able to get cheap enough until too late in their lives and way past the normal console cycle. Its pretty well common knowledge that price was the crux of the issue of Gen7 for Sony and expecting them to dodge that even later in the systems life is unrealistic. It is simply an over engineered device that was too complex for its own good. PS4 in year 4-5 probably wont cost them as much to make as a PS3 cost them now.

 

[AvoidDaNoid]

The market is not going to spend $300+ to play a new Donkey Kong game.

Better than paying $400 to $500 to play EA games honestly. (plus the $300 console comes with at least 1 game)

 

[Danny Dudekisser]

I just don't see it. I feel like team sizes must have been somewhat larger than indie devs we have today. I'm just saying sometimes it doesn't feel like they can make something with huge scope. IDK I really just don't feel like they replace mid-tier studios. Indies can just be something else they don't need to be what something else was and that's fine.

I agree with you on that. Mid tier games, when they existed, were things like Killer7 or Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturne. Indie games, as they exist now, don't offer that same sort of experience. The budgets and team sizes just aren't there. Yet.

 

[FiggyCal]

You can't compare 2001 to 2014. Dev costs have rised so much that in its current form the devs and pubs won't make it. Haven't you seen the publisher's cries how 3-4 million sales are barely enough to break even? The dev costs have gone UP since then.

Why do dev costs matter? What matters is the audience and we've proven time and time again that the audience for games consoles continue to grow.

 

[heidern]

They have a model at $129. Nobody cares.

A fundamentally downgraded model. Even that should be cut to $99.

 

[ambientmystic]

What happened to the guy who had his name changed by a mod to The One or something? Didn't bet his account that Xbox One would beat the PS4 in January NPD?

He's already been dealt with, long before today lol.

 

[Kriken]

If memory serves, the Wii U sold about 66k last February. I'm calling for 200k this year due to Cranky.

Sorry, but I'm not buying another Wii U to play Tropical Freeze

 

[Orayn]

If I had to guess the videogame market is gravitating to the extremes. Either you find success at the casual end of the market with iOS or you find success at the enthusiast end with PC/PS4 end. I just don't see a market for anything in between.

PC doesn't have to be synonymous with big budget or high end. There have been plenty of recent movers and shakers that are bigger and more involved than casual mobile games, but don't have a $60 price point or eight-figure development budget either.

 

[Mlatador]

I'm kind of glad that previous gen is declining fast. I hope that forces a faster transition to current gen.

But what to you expect from current gen, aside from shinier graphics? Mid-tier developers are dead or just not relevant anymore, low-tier are focusing on mobile and AAA developers are as - if not more - scared to take risks as previous gen, which will result in countless numbered sequels of previously established IPs that probably won't offer much "new" or "innovative" or "fresh".

I hope that more indies experience mid-tier success, because they'll be an important factor in (at least) my enjoyment of videogames.

 

[FourMyle]

Better than paying $400 to $500 to play EA games honestly. (plus the $300 console comes with at least 1 game)

What does that have to do with what he said?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Since we're conceptually talking budget, I'd say things like most higher effort licensed titles or most non top tier Japanese games (Gungrave, Persona, or anything else like that with a budget clamp).

Well part of that reason is because of Japan which gave us a huge amount of mid tier games .
Still a company like GUST are a perfect eg of what i think a mid tier dev should do and i don't think there budget going raise with PS4 it might get cheaper .

EDIT are people really surprise at last gen down fall , we have all gone way past ps2 gen if add everything together for the same point in time .
Then there is also the price PS4 cost only a 100 more that PS3 and that has been out for 7 years .
Still i happy this happen everything should be cross gen if not going to be current gen only .

 

[shinobi602]

PS4 almost doubling Xbox One eh? Good. Gooood. Sooner that price drop hits, sooner I get my hands on an Xbox.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Apologies, then. The "parody" quip was only regarding the console market stuff. I loathe the "indies aren't real games" shit as much as every other sane person.

But I still don't see the "industry collapse" everyone else keeps talking about. PS4 at least seems to be doing very well. Wii U isn't worth talking about and XBO...I just don't know about that one yet. It may not do as well as I thought it would (respectable, but profitable, 2nd).

Until PS4 starts trending below PS2 (or PS1, for that matter) long term, the industry'll be okay.

Thing is, even though Xbox One sales have collapsed, they can still probably eek out a better than the original Xbox performance (40 million sold perhaps?).

Their challenge in the US is similar to the challenge Sony faced early on with the PS3 -- the pricing disadvantage is a huge anchor, the multiplats are better on a rival console, and there's not much noteworthy in terms of exclusives yet to entice the dual-console owners to consider picking one up.

I think that will change, especially as Microsoft grows their exclusive library and drops the price, but it's going to be a slow process, and one in which Microsoft will always be playing from a catch-up perspective in the US.

There's a lot of people, myself included, that owned every console last gen that is now content simply owning a PS4. Right now, I still don't see many compelling reasons to pick up an Xbox One, but I won't rule out the possibility if Microsoft gets hungry and starts beefing up their internal studios like Sony did.

Unfortunately for them, there really is no single game that's going to be a gamechanger. Sony learned that lesson. The days of Halo being a huge system seller are pretty much over. It used to be that if you wanted to play first person shooters online, the only serious place to do that was on the original Xbox and on the Xbox 360 early on, but now the market is saturated and Sony has gotten their online act in gear, and there simply won't be one game-changer that's going to sway massive amounts of people.