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[pieatorium]

AAA games didnt cost 100m to make back then. And we are yet to see how "healthy" the PS4 sales are, since, unlike other generations, the prior machine (ps3) nosedived the moment the next gen console was released.

they dont cost 100m now outside of mmos and gta, I Think Shenmue was rumoured to be in that region

 

[SwiftDeath]

I just finished playing Assassin's Creed 4. I recognize the Jackdaw from that video game. I think I'll go buy some DLC. brb.

So next year two boats?

 

[kinggroin]

nop]e growth of the whole is what you responded too

As a whole? Then that makes your argument worse. The Wii added 100 million units to the whole.

Not sure if you're watching, but the successor barely has a pulse. So unless Amazon has a console product that will being us an over ~80 million (I'm being very generous here with Wii U's final output), don't expect the overall market to grow.

 

[BigDug13]

Yeah like the current publishers have after the massive contractions that happened in a much healthier market.... Oh wait.

That's a very presumptuous statement there. The more likely outcome of a contraction is that the developers let go, should they re enter developing, will continue migrating to the mom traditional markets.

Maybe the market needs to get unhealthy for awhile. Fired developers become indie developers. Innovation starts to take hold when developers have creative control and publishers are gone. Eventually gaming goes through another renaissance and then new publishers rise up.

The way the industry is going with microtransactions in paid games, broken releases, splintering of online communities through DLC, same paint by numbers development of the next installment of AAA franchise whatchamacallit, maybe it needs to see some failure with no consumer bailout.

 

[Biker19]

If the industry contracts that's likely to lead Sony to contract. At the moment the industry still has momentum but if things become unviable you could see investors leaving and publishers not having the leverage to go ahead with projects. Even Sony are reliant on third parties providing a library of games. Death for third parties = Death for Sony

Not if PS4 starts with a big userbase like say, 20 million.

 

[heidern]

That's their problem. Let them fail. Other publishers will step up. They always do. The overall demand is still there and that's what counts.

Publishers haven't stepped up.
2004 to 2011, January software sales have averaged $518 million
January 2014: Total software sales were just $232 million

If you see publisher spending $50M or $100M on a game and failing why would you step up? The smart thing would be to walk the other way. That's what investors will do.

 

[pieatorium]

So next year two boats?

cboats

for watchdogs

 

[kinggroin]

Not if PS4 starts with a big userbase like say, 20 million.

An arbitrary number. What matters most is the buying power of the user base, attach ratio for instance.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

finally unbanned. no more jokes from me for a while. lol

 

[CadetMahoney]

Interesting numbers. Sony has been outplaying Microsoft from the get-go, and it shows statistically. Microsoft needs to be much more aggressive in other markets.

Microsoft needs to start gearing up fast and start adjusting.

I think it's too late to start shifting gears at this point.

Yurop is proven to be a lost cause with no chance of a comeback. It's gone. They didn't support the cheaper 360 and they've shown even more disdain for bone. UK has gone too.

USA is their best chance and the best they can hope for is close parity but really they will be a distant second no matter what they do. Rest of the world such as Asia is also irrelevant and pointless to even push bone there at all, they might as well take it off the shelves.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Maybe the market needs to get unhealthy for awhile. Fired developers become indie developers. Innovation starts to take hold when developers have creative control and publishers are gone. Eventually gaming goes through another renaissance and then new publishers rise up.

The way the industry is going with microtransactions in paid games, broken releases, splintering of online communities through DLC, same paint by numbers development of the next installment of AAA franchise whatchamacallit, maybe it needs to see some failure with no consumer bailout.

This post gets me amped up. You're like the tough love father. You never really want to hear about something being in decline, but man this your post resonates with me for some reason. I agree with this.

Smarter publishers are finding ways to get shit done without breaking bank left and right. I couldn't believe what I was hearing when Quantic Dream was happy with beyond's sales. It blew my mind that they could produce something so nice with so little. Sony in general seems to be pretty good at making high quality games that don't destroy the bank. It's very doable, you just have to be geared for it.

 

[pieatorium]

As a whole? Then that makes your argument worse. The Wii added 100 million units to the whole.

Not sure if you're watching, but the successor barely has a pulse. So unless Amazon has a console product that will being us an over ~80 million (I'm being very generous here with Wii U's final output), don't expect the overall market to grow.

you need togo back and read the original comment you responded too it was about the ps3/360 market. rambling about the wii has nothing to do with the conversation

 

[Into]

Neither Infamous or Titanfall will make that much of a difference, Titanfall in particular has been overhyped in terms of its sales potential, its a online only shooter amongst a sea of much bigger and robust shooters. If you believe Titanfall will spike the Xbox One sales tremendously then you are severely overestimating its impact. Its hype is purely Internet created, see "Snakes on a Plane".

The title that will spike sales will be Watch_Dogs, as that actually has mainstream appeal and Ubisoft knows how to push this. This is the first truly big next gen game.

EDIT: And no, Titanfall would not be "big shit" if it launched on PS4 either, it has nothing to do with platforms.

 

[kinggroin]

you need togo back and read the original comment you responded too it was about the ps3/360 market. rambling about the wii has nothing to do with the conversation

I fucking said that initially! You're the one that came back with "overall market".

And 100+60 still wouldn't be growth.

 

[Deuterium]

I think Microsoft's best hope would be to implement a secret, crash development program for the successor to the Xbone. Have it ready for release in 3 years, and get the jump on everyone.

It needs to be backwards compatible with the Bone...but cutting edge in terms of power/performance. It should be as advanced as a medium-high gaming PC that is available at the same time it is released. In other words, similar to the situation with the original Xbox.

And yes, I am perfectly aware this is a fantasy, and will never happen.

Still, they are going to be f#@ked this generation, given the significant gap in performance between the PS4, as well as the higher price.

MS had a great run with the 360, and were able to match the life-time sales of the PS3, due their complete ownership of the North American market, and having a console that matched the performance of Sony's. This time around, they have a more expensive console with inferior performance...and I don't think they will even win the US / Canada / UK market. Europe and Asia are already a lost cause for MS.

They have been put in a terrible position by Mattrick, and his coterie of talking suits and marketing lackeys who directed the cynical design and feature set of the Bone...gimped the GPU and memory specs, and forced Kinect down everyone's throat.

MS needs to Go Big, or Go Home. Hence my pipe-dream ruminations on implementing a crash program for a new console.

As a proud X360 owner, the situation saddens me. Nevertheless, MS lost their way on this generation...and I applaud Team Sony. As soon as the game library improves, I will be purchasing a PS4.

 

[CadetMahoney]

If you believe Titanfall will spike the Xbox One sales tremendously then you are severely. . .

pretty much. This game will be a disappointing sales-wise compared to the hype.

 

[Mpl90]

I'm quite looking for March, since it's inFAMOUS v.s. Titanfall. That's going to be the fight of the month, indeed, and numbers will be really interesting.

TR less than 85k combined? Expected. Yeah, it's 5 days, and it should sell something more in the next months, but I don't see it going over (or at least not too much) 200k on PS4.

The fact we've quarreled so much about a game that sold less than 85k combined between PS4 and One makes me feel bad, I don't know why.

And we all know Rayman Legends, despite the far more reasonable price point, is going to do worse for sure ;_;

 

[pieatorium]

I fucking said that initially! You're the one that came back with "overall market".

And 100+60 still wouldn't be growth.

no i said the whole of ps360 not splitting them up individually. I should have said over i assumed it would implied when talking growth

 

[SwiftDeath]

I'm quite looking for March, since it's inFAMOUS v.s. Titanfall. That's going to be the fight of the month, indeed, and numbers will be really interesting.

TR less than 85k combined? Expected. Yeah, it's 5 days, and it should sell something more in the next months, but I don't see it going over (or at least not too much) 200k on PS4.

The fact we've quarreled so much about a game that sold less than 85k combined between PS4 and One makes me feel bad, I don't know why.

And we all know Rayman Legends, despite the far more reasonable price point, is going to do worse for sure ;_;

March may in fact be the most interesting NPD month of the year, I am very curious what DSII and Stick of truth pull, not to mention the splits for MGS GZ between next gen and previous. Infamous/TF XB1 will be interesting but so will TF's splits [albeit with the 360 delay it won't be a fair fight]

Going to be one crazy month

 

[Branduil]

No matter how much some people want to claim the Wii's userbase doesn't "count," when talking about the growth of the console market, it absolutely does. The casual users were still buying software from the big publishers; losing 100 million of them is going to hurt a lot, and it's quite possible the loss could be more than that.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

I'm quite looking for March, since it's inFAMOUS v.s. Titanfall. That's going to be the fight of the month, indeed, and numbers will be really interesting.

TR less than 85k combined? Expected. Yeah, it's 5 days, and it should sell something more in the next months, but I don't see it going over (or at least not too much) 200k on PS4.

The fact we've quarreled so much about a game that sold less than 85k combined between PS4 and One makes me feel bad, I don't know why.

And we all know Rayman Legends, despite the far more reasonable price point, is going to do worse for sure ;_;

The question I'd like to know is whether or not TR was able to cover the cost of moving it to the next set of consoles. That's part of the beauty of a cross gen title is that it's a good way to bridge the generations, and you can squeeze a bit more money, and increase the brand awareness moving forward. I personally love the thought of cross gen games, and I often wonder if they're a viable investment. Do we have a ballpark estimate on the cost of making the definitive editions?

 

[Polk]

Still very big drop.

PS360 were overpriced last year, now they are stupidly overpriced.

 

[kinggroin]

no i said the whole of ps360 not splitting them up individually. I should have said over i assumed it would implied when talking growth

The whole of just those two would still have to be more than 100m+60m. Xbone is already starting to tank hard, so I expect a pretty harsh ratio in the split. This means for growth overall between those two companies to happen, Sony will probably need to do near PlayStation 2 numbers.

I don't see that happening.


Quite frankly, it doesn't have to. Again, what matters more than some arbitrary total units number, is the tie ratio and buying power of the audience. Budgets too, absolutely have to change or you can expect more publishers moving to mobile and taking developers with them.

 

[Into]

And we all know Rayman Legends, despite the far more reasonable price point, is going to do worse for sure ;_;

Its a damn shame , Rayman Legends is one of the best games of 2013, one of the best 2D platformers ever. Its is excellent and it is absolutely packed with content

..and it will sell 14 copies

 

[SighFight]

no i said the whole of ps360 not splitting them up individually. I should have said over i assumed it would implied when talking growth

Not once did the total number of sold consoles decrease! And even from the massive sales of the PS2 the total number increased due to the unexpected success of the Wii. Who knows what's going to happen this time.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_million-selling_game_consoles

Spoiler

I know, Wikipedia is no good source....

 

[iamshadowlark]

No matter how much some people want to claim the Wii's userbase doesn't "count," when talking about the growth of the console market, it absolutely does. The casual users were still buying software from the big publishers; losing 100 million of them is going to hurt a lot, and it's quite possible the loss could be more than that.

Who says that 100 million users have left? To say nothing of "more".

 

[Donos]

Don't underestimate Titanfall. It won't be as big for XB1 because it's also on two other platforms but a AAA game in a time where XB1 users starve for games will do good number i think. When all the friends move to XB1 for Titenfall you have to go with them.

Also, dat MS PR skillz.

 

[Daingurse]

If this happens industry wide, its when I'll finally throw in the towel on this life long hobby of mine.

Nah, more than enough old games to play. I'm only just getting around to Planescape Torment. Regardless of what happens to the industry I'll still be gaming. But yeeeesh, some of these numbers are fucking grim.

 

[pieatorium]

No matter how much some people want to claim the Wii's userbase doesn't "count," when talking about the growth of the console market, it absolutely does. The casual users were still buying software from the big publishers; losing 100 million of them is going to hurt a lot, and it's quite possible the loss could be more than that.

were is the important word, only ubi (JD) and to a lesser extent acti(sky) have had any contact with them in the last 3-4 years. The vast majority of any pain from them leaving has already been felt.

 

[Boombloxer]

Lets just break things down a little bit:

PS4: Selling very well, especially since it was at the very least moderately supply constrained
Xbox One: Disappointing, no other way to say it
Wii U: A continued disaster
360 and PS3: Still too expensive, but sales just went off a cliff
3DS: A MASSIVE decline
Vita: Dead as a doornail

Outside of the PS4, things are not pretty

3DS and Vita are being eaten via smartphones/tablets, no surprise there. That's actually where I think the most contraction will be. DS sales for the same period a few years ago were pretty good, not so much for either now. Vita has been dead forever, so again, no shock.

But honestly, this is PS2 level. You could've made the same claim back then when its just one strong, and two weak vs one strong, one weaker and one really fucking weak. Combined, the HD twins sales are in line historically.

Also, typically, CoD sales carry over from December to the first 1-2 months of the year, with Ghosts apparently selling less overall, not too surprising that there's a software sales decline--top end carries most of the weight.

No need to panic.

 

[Branduil]

were is the important word, only ubi (JD) and to a lesser extent acti(sky) have had any contact with them in the last 3-4 years. The vast majority of any pain from them leaving has already been felt.

That's only true if publishers were expecting and planning for a massive contraction this generation. I don't think anybody expected Wii U to do this badly.

 

[pieatorium]

That's only true if publishers were expecting and planning for a massive contraction this generation. I don't think anybody expected Wii U to do this badly.

pretty sure EA did at the very least

 

[mrklaw]

PS360 were overpriced last year, now they are stupidly overpriced.

A normal 500Gb PS3 is still around £200 in the UK. The gap between that and PS4 is close enough that even as a late adopter I'd be either tempted to stretch to a Ps4, or possibly put off buying the PS3 as it looks poor value now.

Both MS and Sony are limited in how far they can cut those older machines though? They are just so full of stuff compared to earlier generations - HDD, wifi,chips on large processes. They need a die shrink at least. The 4Gb/12Gb models are more affordable, but of limited use.


And all this talk of last gen hardware collapsing - where are the numbers?they aren't in the OP, so if they are posted could someone tell me where or kindly repost?

 

[John Harker]

pretty sure EA did at the very least

Nope. No one. It's super disappointing.

 

[foxbeldin]

So the supply constrained system outsold 2:1 the available everywhere one?

Damn... Someone's getting fired at EA.

 

[kinggroin]

A normal 500Gb PS3 is still around £200 in the UK. The gap between that and PS4 is close enough that even as a late adopter I'd be either tempted to stretch to a Ps4, or possibly put off buying the PS3 as it looks poor value now.

Both MS and Sony are limited in how far they can cut those older machines though? They are just so full of stuff compared to earlier generations - HDD, wifi,chips on large processes. They need a die shrink at least. The 4Gb/12Gb models are more affordable, but of limited use.

Dat PPC architecture. Nintendo faces the same problem.


I just don't expect to see much in the way of die shrinkage.

 

[kinoki]

The industry is not the same as it was in the PS2 era.

I don't know if anyone is saying that the other two consoles should be selling; rather it's a problem if Sony has a de facto monopoly in the console market and there's no competition. It's also a problem if the hardware market massively contracts from last gen.

Yes, of course. How silly of me. Consumers should be buying products they don't want in order for "competition" to stay alive. That isn't what competition is. It's the opposite. Competition is what will happen now when Microsoft and Nintendo have to realise they've lost and what they do from here on out. Competition isn't when it's a three-way split in the market. Competition is when strong products beat out lesser products. Like what is happening now. Noone benefits, except Nintendo, from buying a WiiU. Like-wise with Xbone.

 

[pieatorium]

Nope. No one. It's super disappointing.

we need a hint on 3ds numbers! a multiplier or ratio of something else anything will do

 

[A_Gorilla]

Don't underestimate Titanfall. It won't be as big for XB1 because it's also on two other platforms but a AAA game in a time where XB1 users starve for games will do good number i think. When all the friends move to XB1 for Titenfall you have to go with them.

Also, dat MS PR skillz.

I don't think anyone is doubting Titanfall overall will do well. The problem is people (and MS it seems) hyping it up to be a system seller like Halo is (was?). I just don't see that happening for a myriad of reasons, not the least of which is it will be on the 360 (a far bigger install base) and PC. That and since E3 I firmly believe that most people who want an XB1 to play Titanfall have long since bought one.

 

[pieatorium]

Yes, of course. How silly of me. Consumers should be buying products they don't want in order for "competition" to stay alive. That isn't what competition is. It's the opposite. Competition is what will happen now when Microsoft and Nintendo have to realise they've lost and what they do from here on out. Competition isn't when it's a three-way split in the market. Competition is when strong products beat out lesser products. Like what is happening now. Noone benefits, except Nintendo, from buying a WiiU. Like-wise with Xbone.

Pretty sure nintendo doesn't benifit from xbone sales

keke

 

[geordiemp]

I know in 2013 our household except for GTA5 on 360 have moved from last gen consoles and games.

So we are eager to buy anything Ps4, yet so many games still releasing on last gen only.

Also pricing games 2 months after release at £ 60 yet you can buy last gen versions for £ 25 ...mmmm


If Pubs cant read the market and recognise that then its their own fault

 

[KJ869]

This list realy made me sad. The top 3 are all games with big probems either in performance or in moneytarization.

 

[Branduil]

Yes, of course. How silly of me. Consumers should be buying products they don't want in order for "competition" to stay alive.

You should stop inventing arguments that no one is making in order to make your own seem stronger.

That isn't what competition is. It's the opposite. Competition is what will happen now when Microsoft and Nintendo have to realise they've lost and what they do from here on out. Competition isn't when it's a three-way split in the market. Competition is when strong products beat out lesser products. Like what is happening now. Noone benefits, except Nintendo, from buying a WiiU. Like-wise with Xbone.

Competition is when consumers have multiple appealing products to choose from. If one product dominates, that means there isn't competition.

 

[Aquamarine]

I think handheld sales are -41% YOY and console sales are +14% YOY (is this adjusted for 5 weeks in January 2013? I forget). Not sure if that helps anything or confirms any Bloomberg statements or whatnot.

If I get this wrong please don't hold it against me because it's really late and I've drank too much and I'm going to bed now.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Nope. No one. It's super disappointing.

Hey Harker's here. By any chance could you drop some hints about 3DS/Vita?... I mostly care about the former, but I know plenty of people who want to know the latter....


Edit: Looks like Aqua dropped some hints right before I posted...

 

[kinggroin]

Titanfall should have been on the Pas4 as well. Looking at this from the publisher's side.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

I don't think anyone is doubting Titanfall overall will do well. The problem is people (and MS it seems) hyping it up to be a system seller like Halo is (was?)

I don't think that Microsoft people really believe that, even Gears couldn't touch Halo (and besides, it's not a franchise that they will be able to keep). However, they know they need to market the hell out of it since the game does have a lot of potential, and that's exactly what they're doing.

 

[Into]

I think handheld sales are -41% YOY and console sales are +14% YOY. Not sure if that helps anything or confirms any Bloomberg statements or whatnot.

If I get this wrong please don't hold me against it because it's really late and I've drank too much and I'm going to bed now.

Night night, thanks for all the numbers and work you put in.

We in EU just woke up, VIVA LA EUROPE! VIVA!

 

[foxbeldin]

I don't think anyone is doubting Titanfall overall will do well. The problem is people (and MS it seems) hyping it up to be a system seller like Halo is (was?). I just don't see that happening for a myriad of reasons, not the least of which is it will be on the 360 (a far bigger install base) and PC. That and since E3 I firmly believe that most people who want an XB1 to play Titanfall have long since bought one.

You're right, one single game can't reverse the numbers, no matter how hyped it is. Some people thought MGS4 would do that, it never did, it just made the ps3 hardware numbers go up for a month or two.
And if you take in consideration that the game is playable on low-end PC (source engine woohooo) and 360, and that it isn't really technically impressive on xone, it's a stretch to think people will invest 560$ + tax for it.

 

[Biker19]

From what I gather the PS4 is very scalable when it comes to cost reduction with the RAM only getting cheaper. The Xbone not so much.

That fewer risks are being taken by publishers is them shooting themselves in the foot. Clearly Sony is. Rime, Shadow of the Beast, Everbody's Gone to the Rapture, etc. Games they're making because they want to.

That the Xbone and WiiU isn't selling is just a sign that they're bad consoles that aren't appealing to consumers. The PS4 is constantly sold out and is on waiting lists all over the world. You shouldn't buy consoles just to support inferior products. That's not good for competition and nobody benefits.

With Nintendo's decline this time only creates a place for competition. Perhaps we can see the coming of a new company. This isn't the time for gloom. Unless you adapt and try to meet consumers you die out. That's how competition works.

One of three is doing great. That's great. Two of them haven't really deserved to be doing good and in the eyes of the consumers they haven't. Why should they be selling? To artificially keep "competition" up? Noone benefits from that.

The mass market's price range isn't an issue as long as it's sold out and it will be for months. Perhaps the entire year if the sales of WiiU and Xbone keep declining. The mass market also isn't the issue as they have chosen the PS4 by the looks of it.

Software sales are units sold. Doesn't matter what platform. As many others have stated it's entirely possible for EA to earn a profit from just one platform, like they did during the PS1 and PS2-era. Factor in PC and you have a healthy system for a publisher if they dedicate their resources accordingly.

I can't for the life of me see what all the doom and gloom is about. We're winning! The consumer is stronger than ever.

Things can't grow year for year forever. It's the start of a new generation and software sales have slumped. But they're still higher than they were at this time last gen because software sales have continued to increase for years, right? So the sales have had a slight contraction. Big deal. Other healthy industries have a bit of ebb and flow during their cycles.

This idea that every company must continue to make gains in every single financial quarter or they're a complete failure and are in a dying industry is a bit extreme.

Likewise, 2 out of 3 companies doing badly doesn't mean a poor market - it can simply mean 2 poor products which consumers are less interested in. The PS2 generation was very heavily skewed to one platform, but nobody says the overall market was weak then.

Yes, of course. How silly of me. Consumers should be buying products they don't want in order for "competition" to stay alive. That isn't what competition is. It's the opposite. Competition is what will happen now when Microsoft and Nintendo have to realise they've lost and what they do from here on out. Competition isn't when it's a three-way split in the market. Competition is when strong products beat out lesser products. Like what is happening now. Noone benefits, except Nintendo, from buying a WiiU. Like-wise with Xbone.

Exactly. Posters that keep saying, "Everyone needs to do well for the sake of competition!", etc. all needs to read these above posts, my post & Jetlagger's, & especially Y2Kev's posts.