gamechanger87
Member
Bloodbourne won't move consoles to the mass channel. It's way too hardcore.
The Order may see some movement but not as much as many people hope.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Bloodbourne won't move consoles to the mass channel. It's way too hardcore.
The Order may see some movement but not as much as many people hope.
It's January, numbers aren't expected to be massive, especially not at $399.
Welfare
Member
Based on the posted numbers:
PS4 and Xbox One have fallen behind PS2.
Probably going to stay like that too. PS2 and Wii were just beasts.
ChronotriggerJM
Member
So I'm too lazy to dig, what are the hardware numbers for our best guess?
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
For the entire year on, Microsoft will say "Xbox One: Best *insert month* ever". Its quite impossible they achieve the numbers they did last year this year.
The Artisan
Member
I think the souls series has helped to make this type of game more mainstream. It may move consoles.
Ps4 is yet to see its first pricecut. Wii was always cheaper than the competition but did the Ps2 have a pricecut by this time?
Suzushiiro
Banned
Someone may throw actual evidence at me to contradict this, but I feel like holiday deals have become a much bigger thing now than the were at this point in the last cycle. That's going to result in November/December being much higher and the rest of the year, especially Q1, being much lower relative to previous generations.
How do you know?
I think you're underestimating it. The Souls series has been getting progressively more awareness and hype with the casual crowd with every entry. At least in my experience. I've seen it being mentioned by people and in places I wouldn't expect. Won't be a huge system seller but I think it'll do a nice number.
No, first PS2 price drop was on the 20th month (may 2002).
Welfare
Member
PS2's first price cut was May 2002, so we've got a couple months.
TheExecutive
Member
If MS forces their hands PS4 will see one next holiday season. Crushing sales will ensue.
Which chart?
I think it's just the manufacturers being forced to take advantage of key dates (holidays, hardware launches, event shows) than they have in the past due to the variety of alternatives that have come into the market in the past five years. Left on it's own console hardware can be drowned out by mobile gaming, F2P stuff, streaming services, Steam sales etc. There's so much disruption out there fighting for a consumers time and money, platform holders need those massive, expensive soap boxes to break through that noise now more than ever.
We are spreading positivity here ...
TheExecutive
Member
What was January of last year? Guessing everyone lost comparatively speaking.
BeatResetsTheWorld
Banned
Wasn't the PS2 cheaper than it's competition too?
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Didn't EA, Ubisoft and Activision all just recently announce better-than-expected earnings? Some records broken?
Industry doomed!!! Pack it up boys, No ones making any money so the industry will probably be gone by February
Industry doomed!!! Pack it up boys, No ones making any money so the industry will probably be gone by February
Suzushiiro
Banned
To be fair, PS2 hadn't seen a price drop yet either at January 2002.
It had seen several of its best selling games by January of '02 (GT3, GTA3, FFX, MGS2,) which is probably the reason for the difference. Of course, it had also technically been out for half a year longer at January '02 than the PS4 has now (PS2's Japanese launch was in March of '00,) which is the main reason why it had its first big wave of good releases in late '01 while PS4's first big wave isn't coming until this year, so it's kind of unfair to compare the two based on number of months in the US market.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Wii U and Xbone are up!
PS2 launched at $299, same as Xbox. GameCube was $199.
Yeah, I'm a bit surprised. Thought both consoles would at least do 200K.
RukusProvider
Banned
I'd imagine adoption rates, moblie platform and transaction models (DLC, micro, etc) that they all jumped into last gen are paying off nicely.
These price points are still mainly enthusiasts who spend more on a game than your "casual" gamer.
That's a sign of consolidation. The majority of the revenue gets soaked up by a few larger players in the industry while everything around them withers. Like in 2013, despite being the year which saw the launch of the biggest selling game of all time, it saw a steady decrease in software sales compared to the already disappointing 2012.
There's going to be a whole lot more homogenization of game design, consolidation of profits and bankrupt developers and publishers this generation. Fewer and fewer will remain in the AAA space.
What did Square say about those companies?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
PS2 was the same price as the Xbox in NA. $100 more than GCN. PS2's price was dropped around the same time as Xbox and GCN. $199 (PS2,Xbox) $149 (GCN).
PS2 never had to be cheaper to sell. When it was up against the new systems PS3 and 360 it definitely helped though.
Crimson_Gold
Member
Please be excited
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
The more expensive PS4 outsold the cheaper XB1 by ~25% in its strongest territory.
1) TO1886 and BB will move consoles
2) The PS4 is doing great even without those two
It's a win-win really.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
1 - That's not true. Minecraft for example was not an established IP and went against market realities. Mojand created their own universe and catered to an audience that had been largely ignored by many publishers. Sony (The Order) is creating a game that caters to the same audience that buys COD, Destiny, Evolve, Dying Light, Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed, etc. - it's a much more competitive and crowded environment. The decline of 90% falls solely on Sony's shoulders as it did nothing to distinguish the Order from the many.
2 - I don't have unrealistic expectations. I say the Order should sell as much if not more than Beyond: Two Souls, a 1 million + title. I would view that as a disappointment if the Order would do comparable numbers. This was a game that was suppose to release in the Holiday season to boot. More development time = more money spent.
3 - Dying Light did great but at the end of the day, it all depends on the expectations set by the publishers themselves. If it's profitable, it's a success surely. Shuhei Yoshida mentioned that only 3-4 Sony published titles out of 10 make money. If the Order sells 300-400k in February (a solid opening) and plummets next month, is that a good result and a profitable venture? No.
4 - See all three notes.
The Artisan
Member
what do you mean? that mS will cut the price of the xbone again or that the momentum will pick up again?
I don't know. But it was definitely less than $400.
True but it wasn't $400 to boot. Ps4's been doing this well so far at that price point, I think its success will continue fair if sony cuts the price.
Suzushiiro
Banned
Yeah, I think the new "normal" is going to be sales spiking around big launches, price cuts, holiday deals, etc. and being relatively bad for the rest of the year. Sales overall will be fine, but we're going to have to put up with "OMG CONSOLE GAMING IS DOOMED" every time an NPD cycle goes by without any of those things.
I believe they called then a Oligarchy, which is a perfect word for it.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
People have blinders on. They are looking at a single set of numbers and not taking in the entire picture. Which would show these consoles had a faster start than anyother console, for some reason developers weren't prepared for the switch (still have cross gen and last gen only games), and I don't think it can be understated that MS pricing during the holiday is going to have an affect on both consoles until an official price drop happens for both. This gen is unlike anyother gen in its trajectory and landscape, looking at numbers in a vacuum is a mistake.
BlowoverKing
Banned
So any estimates on handheld hardware? I see PSTV is ~6.6k and Vita is 39% of 3DS but do we have any actual numbers? It seems that depending on how 3DS hardware goes Vita could be up YoY for January.
It has nothing to do with MS imo.
Their biggest competition is their own record-breaking first year.
What do they expect and what do they want to do from now on with their PS4 business after selling more than 18.5m units so far?
Achieving growth in this situation is really difficult if not impossible, the PS4 would need to become a mass market fad and that's quite frankly unlikely to happen. PS4 success is based on gamers.
At the same time I don't think that they'll like to see their business sinking already in year two, not now that Playstation has become a focus for the whole corporation and they need to sell a lot of software and subscriptions to make profits.
They'll set an internal target and will cut the price later this year accordingly, maybe we'll get a hint of what's in store when the 2015 forecast is announced in May.
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see a 299$ PS4 and Xbone later this year, actually for Xbox is pretty much certain.
Taking inflation into consideration, $400 in today's money is right around the same as $300 was back then. Of course, that's ignoring the economy.
JackLongRod
Banned
So happy to see dying light doing well
It's an awesome fucking game
It's an awesome fucking game
No, XB1 price was back up to $399 for first two weeks of January, no doubt that hurt sales.
gamechanger87
Member
Dark Souls 2 sold around 2m or so in total right? I haven't seen an updated figure for it. This was across 360, PS3 and PC. This included a decent share in Japan.
Blood bourne is on one console with no where near that combined market. That is why I don't think it will kill it.
Well, that's another way of saying it shrank. It may return to say, PS2-gen levels.
There can be a sustainable business with a stable but not growing user base, but there are a few problems:
1) That only works if production costs stop growing.
2) Because other segments of the market are growing and are significantly more profitable, it runs the risk of eventually being outpaced and potentially consumed.
But those are long term concerns and it's totally possible solutions will be found before they reach "emergency" status.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=884312
This would suggest they're hitting their fanbase that's been with them since the SNES/N64/GameCube era to me vastly more than their expanded audience from the Wii era.
If we match that with what's actually selling on the system, it doesn't seem in conflict either.