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[Psycho_Mantis]

the 360 and ps3 were the second and third place consoles of their generation.

Isn;t 360 number 1? Iirc it recently overtook the Wii.

And just to emphasize, obviously Nov/Dec are the most important months. Honestly, if PS4/One sell like this consistently, we could see them sell less than PS3/360 for 10 months a year, sell comparatively better only in Nov/Dec, and still sell more overall.

I don't know if its my memory but is it possible that Sony and MS are getting much more aggressive with pricing and bundles during the holiday period than before? It might condition people to only buy during holidays, though thats where notable game release will help during the year (which in MS's case seem to be getting pushed closer to the holidays).

 

[onQ123]

Wow, Less install base but more games sold (even without counting to digital and account share), thats even greater than moving more consoles.

 

[marc^o^]

ahaha try again

Week 2-5 Media Create: 33592
Week 2-5 Famitsu: 36941

those are the tracking periods that match this NPD period, otherwise you'd have to go and add the final week of December NPD, which is presumably a roflstomp in favor of Xbox One

You're certainly right, I don't think stores are even opened on Jan 1st in Japan.

Still, no massive gap there. Has the market entered its second phase already, Sony, MS and Nintendo having to reach new owners beyond their audience?

 

[EGM1966]

Really surprised that games are selling more on Xbox One. Wounder why and how?

Most likely it's just that Xbox saw much larger spike of new owners vs PS4 vet November/December. More than 400k new owners or so?

New owners buy new games to play. January software numbers tend to be lower anyway than peak so 400k more people buying new games for their console will easily cause a spike like this.

Could be US Xbox console owners buy more games on average than PS4 owners. That would be nice for MS for revenue.

Could be PS4 owners buy more digitally or the January PSN sales cannibalised retail sales more than Xbox.

Either way neither helps MS core issue of wanting a bigger hardware install base. Selling more software is nice but it's clear their primary goal is install base as a platform for their store and Live ecosystem.

Not to sound like a certain meme but in this case I really wouldn't read too much into it at this point.

 

[Vena]

Isn;t 360 number 1? Iirc it recently overtook the Wii.

He means at that time.

The Wii cratered so the X360 could catch back-up long, long time later and even that is also due to the fact that the generation dragged on for a really long, long time.

 

[AniHawk]

Isn;t 360 number 1? Iirc it recently overtook the Wii.

i was considering the generation up until that point. regardless, the ps3 doesn't really enter into the conversation.

 

[AniHawk]

If you're not an econ nerd, "highly inelastic demand" refers to people who are not price sensitive regarding a particular product. It doesn't mean they necessarily have more money; it just means they are willing to spend it. If I'm willing to spend $50 on a product, but then the price increases to $51 and I say "screw this, I'll do something else," my demand would qualify as highly elastic. It means I am very price sensitive and would drop something with even modest price changes.But there are people who would continue buying it even as the price rises to $60, then to $70, then to $80 -- their demand would qualify as highly inelastic as they show a willingness to buy the product at virtually any price.

A great example of a product with extreme inelastic demand would be gasoline. If the price of gas rose to $5 per gallon next week, what would you do? Stop driving? Most would just grumble and keep going, even with a sudden 150% increase in price. By contrast, if the price of apples rose by 150% tomorrow, most people would just buy bananas or pears instead. Apple demand is highly elastic.

This concludes today's econ lesson.

thanks for the information. i will incorporate it into my vocabulary going forward, and as an added bonus people may even think i know what i'm talking about!

 

[C4Lukins]

He means at that time.

The Wii cratered so the X360 could catch back-up long, long time later and even that is also due to the fact that the generation dragged on for a really long, long time.

No thanks to Nintendo. The Wii died, and PS3 and 360 still had years left.

 

[El-Pistolero]

the 360 and ps3 were the second and third place consoles of their generation.

The success of the Wii has no relevance, imo. That console was an interesting parenthesis in the recent history of this industry; It attracted an unusual crowd that has dispersed since then, migrating to mobile and tablets, or leaving what amounted to an ephemeral leisure activity after a few runs with the Wii-mote. I don't think that that flock vanishing from the scene should be interpreted as a sign the market has contracted.

 

[plasmawave]

Oh ok, misleading on MS' part.

Fixed.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Honest question: what's the next Xbone exclusive this year? Cos The Order and Bloodborne should only increase the hardware sales gap.

 

[anexanhume]

The meteoric rise of black Friday sales has made years ridiculously back loaded. Just remember PS4's LTD is exceptional.

 

[bombshell]

See you next holiday season, Microsoft!

 

[GamerJM]

If you're not an econ nerd, "highly inelastic demand" refers to people who are not price sensitive regarding a particular product. It doesn't mean they necessarily have more money; it just means they are willing to spend it. If I'm willing to spend $50 on a product, but then the price increases to $51 and I say "screw this, I'll do something else," my demand would qualify as highly elastic. It means I am very price sensitive and would drop something with even modest price changes.But there are people who would continue buying it even as the price rises to $60, then to $70, then to $80 -- their demand would qualify as highly inelastic as they show a willingness to buy the product at virtually any price.

A great example of a product with extreme inelastic demand would be gasoline. If the price of gas rose to $5 per gallon next week, what would you do? Stop driving? Most would just grumble and keep going, even with a sudden 150% increase in price. By contrast, if the price of apples rose by 150% tomorrow, most people would just buy bananas or pears instead. Apple demand is highly elastic.

This concludes today's econ lesson.

this is all high school-required level econ tbh

or at least it was at my HS

 

[Aquamarine]

this is all high school-required level econ tbh

or at least it was at my HS

You would be surprised how few basic econ is taught at many High Schools these days.


But that definitely sounded like my beginning Intro to Microeconomics lecture back when I was in college.

 

[C4Lukins]

Fixed.

We are having a discussion. Fuck off if you are not going to participate.

 

[AniHawk]

The success of the Wii has no relevance, imo. That console was an interesting parenthesis in the recent history of this industry; It attracted an unusual crowd that has dispersed since then, migrating to mobile and tablets, or leaving what amounted to an ephemeral leisure activity after a few runs with the Wii-mote. I don't think that that flock vanishing from the scene should be interpreted as a sign the market has contracted.

then maybe we can point to the shrinking amount of games released per year, retail constantly down year over year, the disappearing handheld market, and the disappearing japanese market.

i can understand saying that the market is not collapsing or dying, but it's pretty obviously contracting.

 

[El-Pistolero]

Honest question: what's the next Xbone exclusive this year? Cos The Order and Bloodborne should only increase the hardware sales gap.

The next big one should be Fable Legends. The franchise sells relatively well, so that one should perform decently. The bulk of MS big hitter will arrive much later, close to year's end.
Tomb Raider, Forza 6, Quantum Break, Halo 5...
Sony had better get all the extra sales from now till september-October...They will need them come next fall.

 

[Frillen]

How much did the Wii and the PS2 sell in their second Januaries? I feel the market leader should at least be doing over 200k in these slower months.

 

[AniHawk]

How much did the Wii and the PS2 sell in their second Januaries?

ps2 - 448k (2002)
wii - 274k (2008)

 

[Mpl90]

Isn't Fable Legends a F2P, though, IIRC?

 

[plasmawave]

We are having a discussion. Fuck off if you are not going to participate.

And I was pointing out that MS was the one misleading and not him.
The fuck is your problem?

 

[theprodigy]

then maybe we can point to the shrinking amount of games released per year, retail constantly down year over year, the disappearing handheld market, and the disappearing japanese market.

i can understand saying that the market is not collapsing or dying, but it's pretty obviously contracting.

There were only just over 200 retail games released in 2014? Now I want to know where Bayonetta 2 ranks among that group lol

 

[Mooreberg]

Honest question: what's the next Xbone exclusive this year? Cos The Order and Bloodborne should only increase the hardware sales gap.

We do not have dates for anything. The safe bet for Halo 5 is the second tuesday of November. Forza is probably October. They will try to have Crystal Dynamics get Tomb Raider out to go against Uncharted 4 (early October?). Quantum Break is the big question mark because Remedy is not the most punctual developer on earth. They seem to be banking on the back half of the year again.

The meteoric rise of black Friday sales has made years ridiculously back loaded. Just remember PS4's LTD is exceptional.

I am wondering if there is actually going to be a better time to buy an Xbox One prior to BF '15 than what was made available this past November. Even $299 MSRP for hardware only is kinda meh compared to those $330 bundles that had either gift cards or XBL thrown in.

 

[Alo0oy]

There's no doubt that the market has shrunk in the US, even if you take the Wii out of the equation. But the growth in Europe & the rest of the world has probably made up for it which is why PS4 WW numbers still look strong, the PS4 was doing ~1 million a month last year despite having some mediocre NPD months.

Microsoft really needs to step it up & try to grab a small piece of the WW pie, but I'm not sure what can they do.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

then maybe we can point to the shrinking amount of games released per year, retail constantly down year over year, the disappearing handheld market, and the disappearing japanese market.

i can understand saying that the market is not collapsing or dying, but it's pretty obviously contracting.

There exists something called a digital games market. That might have something to do with current proceedings...

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Poor sales all around.

If this persists I have no doubt that Sony will go for $299 in September. They will be ready for it as well because of the shift to fewer RAM chips and possibly a smaller APU if 20nm comes online for them in the next month or so like it should.

 

[dead monkey uk]

The next big one should be Fable Legends. The franchise sells relatively well, so that one should as well. The bulk of MS big hitter will arrive much later, close to year's end.
Tomb Raider, Forza 6, Quantum Break, Halo 5...
Sony had better get all the extra sales from now till september-October...They will need them come next fall.

I just do not see Fable Legends selling that well. The last couple of Fable games have been very poor and Legends does not look like a game that will gain mass appeal. I would guess QB will come out next year.

Tomb Raider will be massive for MS this year, if it improves on the last title it could be something special.

 

[Castef]

That new IP thirst. I really wanna try Dying Light.

Heh... The good old times when we had demos...

 

[In Service]

See you next holiday season, Microsoft!

Hahah. This.

Game wise, what's next on the horizon for MS other than Halo that will drive sales? The further/return to price drop may help too.

On a serious note, I'd like to have more data about the attach rate for the main consoles. If no-one is making a large profit (if any) on hardware, its all in the subscriptions and licence fees isn't it?

 

[C4Lukins]

And I was pointing out that MS was the one misleading and not him.
The fuck is your problem?

In the sad days of Sony, Nintendo, and MS, manipulative PR has been a thing. It is not exclusive.

 

[plasmawave]

I still haven't bought a single physical copy of games for my PS4, and I'm not really planing to either.
Those PSN cards are always in the top 5-ish so alot of people must be going digital.

 

[El-Pistolero]

then maybe we can point to the shrinking amount of games released per year, retail constantly down year over year, the disappearing handheld market, and the disappearing japanese market.

i can understand saying that the market is not collapsing or dying, but it's pretty obviously contracting.

You forgot to mention that digital sales have gained traction, significantly. And for each Japan that falls, there are European countries that see their market expand : Germany, for example; and I so happen to think that a certain number of emerging countries will compensate as well.
The handheld segment (I make the mistake of never considering it when evaluating things, that I concede) is bound to disappear, imo, as the convergence process of multimedia portable devices will prove fatal to the traditional Gameboy successors, but I do think that Home consoles will continue to thrive...for a time, at least.

 

[texhnolyze]

Poor sales all around.

If this persists I have no doubt that Sony will go for $299 in September. They will be ready for it as well because of the shift to fewer RAM chips and possibly a smaller APU if 20nm comes online for them in the next month or so like it should.

That would be a perfect condition for me.

 

[bwakh]

$250 bundle by November I imagine.

Half price from launch in 2 years.

Edit: Not counting the free games etc.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

We do not have dates for anything. The safe bet for Halo 5 is the second tuesday of November. Forza is probably October. They will try to have Crystal Dynamics get Tomb Raider out to go against Uncharted 4 (early October?). Quantum Break is the big question mark because Remedy is not the most punctual developer on earth. They seem to be banking on the back half of the year again.

The next big one should be Fable Legends. The franchise sells relatively well, so that one should as well. The bulk of MS big hitter will arrive much later, close to year's end.
Tomb Raider, Forza 6, Quantum Break, Halo 5...
Sony had better get all the extra sales from now till september-October...They will need them come next fall.

Wow, Xbone's next retail exclusive could be not until all the way to November!?

Xbox One for $299.99, 3 free games, two controllers, 2-years Xbox Live, $40 rebate, and a Windows 10 Pro serial key might be their strategy at some point in the coming weeks then....

 

[plasmawave]

Will they announce a $50 price drop today?

 

[Rymuth]

when i said the same thing in different words that PS4 didnt capitalize on its impressive launch i got banned. So be careful. Nothing against the PS4 can be said here.

IIRC, you were banned the moment you called Devs lazy.

Which is an incredibly shitty thing to say.

 

[NolbertoS]

I totally forgt about NPD day. Wow, nobody ahould be surprised about PS4 leading again. At this rate 2015 Black Friday should make for a very interesting year with $299.99 or cheaper xboxOne bundles. I'm looking forward to it. Glad the Big N sold something at least. The Big N will ride out this gen with there pride hurt but intact and try again next gen.

 

[King Beyond the wall]

Wow, Xbone's next retail exclusive could be not until all the way to November!?

Xbox One for $299.99, 3 free games, two controllers, 2-years Xbox Live, $40 rebate, and a Windows 10 Pro serial key might be their strategy at some point in the coming weeks then....

Don't forget a map of the USA as well.

Have we got numbers for the consoles yet, I see talking about numbers but without any reference to where they got them from.

 

[John Bender]

We are having a discussion. Fuck off if you are not going to participate.

 

[Alo0oy]

We do not have dates for anything. The safe bet for Halo 5 is the second tuesday of November. Forza is probably October. They will try to have Crystal Dynamics get Tomb Raider out to go against Uncharted 4 (early October?). Quantum Break is the big question mark because Remedy is not the most punctual developer on earth. They seem to be banking on the back half of the year again.

I really doubt Square wants TR to go against Uncharted, which sells more on one platform than TR does on five.

Although they might be willing to if MS paid enough for it.

 

[goomba]

Isn;t 360 number 1? Iirc it recently overtook the Wii.

Only in the US, wii won the generation worldwide (which is usually the standard of being "number 1")

 

[Dragonborn]

$250 bundle by November I imagine.

If the PS4 hits $299 this year the X1 will need to be even cheaper than $250 to keep up (if they want something similar to last year)

 

[EGM1966]

I really doubt Square wants TR to go against Uncharted, which sells more on one platform than TR does on five.

Although they might be willing to if MS paid enough for it.

The whole TR vs Uncharted is manufactured situation which in reality is going to be a bit of a damp squid IMHO.

Uncharted sales won't be affected by TR in any significant way in my view. PS4 popularity, popular status of Uncharted, ND popularity after TLOU and the fact U4 will be a full exclusive - no cross gen option - should render TR selling on Xbox irrelevant for those on PS4 (who know they'll getbTR later).

At this point the best MS can hope for is TR coupled with Halo 5 and Forza comprise an attractive enough series of exclusives and temporary exclusives to drive a big sales spike hopefully with less dependence on price point.

Personally though I expect TR to play out similar to TitanFall in that the game itself will sell well on Xbox but it will individually only cause a small spike. Price point for the console and Halo 5 are the real drivers for late 2015 in my view.

TR is likely to be a non-event in terms of the warz.

 

[slavesnyder]

Okay, stop right here. I'm not saying there were zero good games on the system -- I'm asking what top tier talent was devoted to the Wii. You said publishers tried "everything they could." I suppose based on your askew answer to my question that you agree, publishers did not devote their top talent to the system?

Well, there was Okami...

 

[bombshell]

Well, there was Okami...

A PS2 game port.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Okay, let's say I agree with your premise for a moment (I don't, but let's run with it). What metric would you like to use instead?

If you'd like to use R&D investment, the last I saw (which admittedly was about 5 years ago in an annual FR), EA was spending nearly 2x as much on the PS3 and 360 individually as they were on Wii development. A single game like Battlefield cost more to make than almost their entire Wii catalogue.

I don't think people often buy games because it happens to be made by top tier talent (although of course it happens sometimes). I think top tier talent is just far more likely to make a good game that sells well. In other words, I'm not suggesting that a game would have sold just because Blizzard made it; I'm suggesting a game made by Blizzard was just far more likely to be very good, and stood a much higher chance of being a breakout hit.

I agree.

I wouldn't use R&D investment either, given I don't think high technology was the driver behind the Wii's success. "Effort" is something of an ambiguous quality to gauge anyway. I'd probably simply look at these metrics separately as what they are.

Publishers produced a lot of games for the Wii.
Publishers didn't invest as much in budgets for the Wii.
Publishers didn't put their flagship teams on the Wii.

I don't know whether I agree or disagree with publishers doing "everything they could." I'd probably qualify that by saying yes they did, given their backgrounds, core capabilities, limited understanding of the market and so on. Or that no, they didn't given the market potential, they could have invested more heavily and repositioned more, and so on.

At a very generic level, I'd say people buy products because they best suit their needs. And that userbases and audiences can very much be profiled and segmented according to needs, demographics, psychographics, behaviours and so on.

I don't think that what you're referring to as top tier talent, be it Infinity Ward, Blizzard, Bungie, Naughty Dog, Bioware, or whatever large scale team with a background producing certain types of games for certain types of audiences with certain types of needs, necessitates any more potential for success for a very different audience.

A game made by Infinity Ward is more likely to be a very good game and product for the audience they know, understand and have experience with.

 

[samar11]

There's no doubt that the market has shrunk in the US, even if you take the Wii out of the equation. But the growth in Europe & the rest of the world has probably made up for it which is why PS4 WW numbers still look strong, the PS4 was doing ~1 million a month last year despite having some mediocre NPD months.

Microsoft really needs to step it up & try to grab a small piece of the WW pie, but I'm not sure what can they do.

They can't do shit, nobody wants one over there, unless they call it playstation 4.

 

[Alo0oy]

The whole TR vs Uncharted is manufactured situation which in reality is going to be a bit of a damp squid IMHO.

Uncharted sales won't be affected by TR in any significant way in my view. PS4 popularity, popular status of Uncharted, ND popularity after TLOU and the fact U4 will be a full exclusive - no cross gen option - should render TR selling on Xbox irrelevant for those on PS4 (who know they'll getbTR later).

At this point the best MS can hope for is TR coupled with Halo 5 and Forza comprise an attractive enough series of exclusives and temporary exclusives to drive a big sales spike hopefully with less dependence on price point.

Personally though I expect TR to play out similar to TitanFall in that the game itself will sell well on Xbox but it will individually only cause a small spike. Price point for the console and Halo 5 are the real drivers for late 2015 in my view.

TR is likely to be a non-event in terms of the warz.

How many units did Titanfall sell? TR sold on average 1.2 million per platform (6 million overall on 5 platforms), & the majority of TR sales were on Europe where Xbox was never strong. But I see it selling around ~3 million if Microsoft gives it the push it deserves, I really hope MS doesn't screw it up because I loved the reboot & I don't want the franchise to die.

I don't agree with it being a non-event though, TR is big mostly in Europe, it might move a few Xbox Ones there