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[Maxwell House]

no. Wii is the new PS2, 360 is the new XBOX

PS3 is doing pretty well at 4 million WW for not having launched yet.

WTF does that even mean?

 

[Earthstrike]

FortunateSon can't really believe what hes posting. I firmly believe his posts are pure parody. I especially like the 'Sony fully expected this' bit. Post of the week.

In other news, I saw 2 wiis sitting in a store for the 1st time since launch today. I was in Costco, and I just assumed they were display boxes. I picked one up, and lo and behold, it was heavy, and my heart skipped a beat because of the shock. You have to understand, where I live wiis are nowhere to be seen. I woulda picked it up right there and then if I had a costco card.. which I didnt. I stopped by 10 min later and they were both gone.

You should have hid it somewhere in the store.

 

[siamesedreamer]

halo 2 did not sell an exorbitant number of systems in the month it launched. i maintain that in america, game releases do not have a significant, immediate impact on home console sales. those are affected by overall momentum over time, aided by price drops. halo 3 has been selling consoles since november 22, 2005 and will sell them until november 22, 2012 or whenever it is microsoft pulls the plug on 360. but a lot of them on or around september 25, over and above existing trends? doubt it.

for the record, here's the percentage increases for xbox's 2004 sales over the same months in 2003 leading up to halo 2's launch

month	increase
1	17%
2	3%
3	20%
4	135%
5	76%
6	57%
7	47%
8	49%
9	54%
10	23%
11	45%

tell me, did xbox receive a significant boost in november? or was it riding the wave it had been riding all year, particularly following the price drop that hit in april? further, if halo 2 was selling all of those consoles then, it was selling them all year. it would follow that halo 3 has been selling them all year as well. but the increases you are going to see for august and later months are going to be primarily associated with the recent price drop.

And what happened in April 2004?

Spoiler

Halo LE Xbox

 

[davepoobond]

for so many consoles sold on Wii and DS, its not reflective software-wise at all.

 

[AniHawk]

for so many consoles sold on Wii and DS, its not reflective software-wise at all.

It's kinda hard to determine that from ten games. Pretty much everything in the top ten is the best selling in casual gaming.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

WTF does that even mean?

The PS3 doesn't launch until this Fall.

 

[Odysseus]

And what happened in April 2004?

Spoiler

Halo LE Xbox

the right answer was "price drop," but thanks for playing.

 

[ZeoVGM]

for so many consoles sold on Wii and DS, its not reflective software-wise at all.

We know RE4 sold very well and wasn't in the top 10.

 

[Maxwell House]

Halo 2 isn't a good baramoter of the Halo franchise as a system mover since Halo 1 was already out on the Xbox. The Halo fanbase already owned an Xbox before Halo 2 came out.

This is a different situation. There isn't a Halo on the 360 yet. This is the first time the franchise will be on the next gen MS console and I believe quite a few Halo fans haven't made the switch over yet, and are waiting for Halo 3 before they do.

I expect Halo 3 to move WAY more 360 systems than Halo 2 moved Xbox's. It is a very different situation.

Halo 1 WAS a system mover of the original Xbox, wasn't it?

 

[davepoobond]

It's kinda hard to determine that from ten games. Pretty much everything in the top ten is the best selling in casual gaming.

i dont think it should be. Japan's top 10 is 99% DS or Wii in a usual week. How many weeks have Wii and especially DS been selling more than everything else? Its only ever one or two games that are in the top 10 as opposed to 9 out of 10 like in Japan.

 

[siamesedreamer]

the right answer was "price drop," but thanks for playing.

Yes...it all come from a $30 price drop.

 

[AniHawk]

i dont think it should be. Japan's top 10 is 99% DS or Wii in a usual week. How many weeks have Wii and especially DS been selling more than everything else? Its only ever one or two games that are in the top 10 as opposed to 9 out of 10 like in Japan.

The DS and Wii don't have the dominance they do in Japan. Sony and MS are nonfactors there, and the DS software is performing pretty much on par with past Nintendo handhelds ("pretty much" meaning slightly better).

 

[abacab driver]

Late to this thread.
Wow @ the no image thing...

EEK

 

[Fuzzy]

The DS and Wii don't have the dominance they do in Japan. Sony and MS are nonfactors there, and the DS software is performing pretty much on par with past Nintendo handhelds ("pretty much" meaning slightly better).

I don't like your serious posts.

 

[Odysseus]

Halo 2 isn't a good baramoter of the Halo frachinse as a system mover since Halo 1 was already out on the Xbox. The Halo fanbase already owned an Xbox before Halo 2 came out.

This is a different situation. There isn't a Halo on the 360 yet. This is the first time the franchise will be on the next gen MS console and I believe quite a few Halo fans haven't made the switch over yet, and are waiting for Halo 3 before they do.

I expect Halo 3 to move WAY more 360 systems than Halo 2 moved Xbox's. It is a very different situation.

Halo 1 WAS a system mover of the original Xbox, wasn't it?

no one is doubting its system moving status, my doubt surrounds the immediacy of such movement. i could be interpreting things very wrongly, but a look at last generation's sales trends surrounding major releases found very little in the way of positive impact on hardware sales that pushed them out of seasonal trends. in fact, many "major" games were released in months that actually saw hardware sales slip. now, there is no doubt halo 3 is a very big game, and it may very well be a special circumstance. and if i'm the lowest predictor for september npd, then so be it. but i feel comfortable.

 

[Fuzzy]

no one is doubting its system moving status, my doubt surrounds the immediacy of such movement. i could be interpreting things very wrongly, but a look at last generation's sales trends surrounding major releases found very little in the way of positive impact on hardware sales that pushed them out of seasonal trends. in fact, many "major" games were released in months that actually saw hardware sales slip. now, there is no doubt halo 3 is a very big game, and it may very well be a special circumstance. and if i'm the lowest predictor for september npd, then so be it. but i feel comfortable.

You can say the same thing about current Xbox 360 sales month to month.

 

[siamesedreamer]

no one is doubting its system moving status, my doubt surrounds the immediacy of such movement. i could be interpreting things very wrongly, but a look at last generation's sales trends surrounding major releases found very little in the way of positive impact on hardware sales that pushed them out of seasonal trends. in fact, many "major" games were released in months that actually saw hardware sales slip. now, there is no doubt halo 3 is a very big game, and it may very well be a special circumstance. and if i'm the lowest predictor for september npd, then so be it. but i feel comfortable.

Wasn't Nov 04 the best sales month in the Xbox lifetime? Or was it Dec 04?

 

[Odysseus]

Yes...it all come from a $30 price drop.

that's a year over year comparison. in terms of actual march -> april increase, that $30 price drop and halo le xbox produced an increase of a whole 100k units on a console that was $149. i have sales going up by 130k on a $350 console for august and up by another 50k in september.

you know what, you made me think i might just be crazy. i may be overestimating this year's sales.

You can say the same thing about current Xbox 360 sales month to month.

i have.

 

[StoOgE]

paramount = vindicated total

also go go wii since im part of team ninty too

 

[Cubsfan23]

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067

well, so far this year the % has been down for almost every month for 360. August will be the first month that will have a healthy gain over last year. Of course the price cut helps, but you can also reason that people are waiting for Halo 3.

 

[mashoutposse]

Nintendo's bet for this generation paid off for real.

I can't believe Sony actually developed a console with a $500-600 pricepoint in mind. Talk about suicide.

If PS3 was a decently but competitively specced machine with established technologies for $299, they would have won again. $399, even. (It probably would have come out on time, too.) But, $499/599? Who else watched the E3 2006 conference and knew it was over for them when Kaz made the announcement?

 

[FitzOfRage]

for so many consoles sold on Wii and DS, its not reflective software-wise at all.

How much software have they sold?

 

[Mrbob]

There were no xboxen to buy nov/dec 04. Shortages.

X360 won't have the same problem this holiday season.

 

[siamesedreamer]

you know what, you made me think i might just be crazy. i may be overestimating this year's sales.

Well, if you do turn out to be right you'll look like a genius.

 

[Odysseus]

Wasn't Nov 04 the best sales month in the Xbox lifetime? Or was it Dec 04?

it was the second highest november (launch is the top). i don't have 05 numbers close by, but december is the highest month by far for xbox for 2002-2004, as it always is for every system because, you know, black friday is the official start of life in the retail world.

 

[cvxfreak]

:lol I just had a thought... do retail workers even bother to put Wii on shelves???... or do they just sell them directly out of the pallet boxes... holding them up in the air for the next person to walk by and grab it?

That's what happened to me in Japan, but that was last January. The Sofmap people were literally removing the Wii systems from the big box they came in. It was in the evening too, so Sofmap either received a huge shipment or didn't get around to opening them till that night.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

I think Gears and Halo 3 a year later was a much bigger system seller to Halo Nation than Halo 3 alone will be.

 

[Juice]

Halo 2 isn't a good baramoter of the Halo frachinse as a system mover since Halo 1 was already out on the Xbox. The Halo fanbase already owned an Xbox before Halo 2 came out.

This is a different situation. There isn't a Halo on the 360 yet. This is the first time the franchise will be on the next gen MS console and I believe quite a few Halo fans haven't made the switch over yet, and are waiting for Halo 3 before they do.

I expect Halo 3 to move WAY more 360 systems than Halo 2 moved Xbox's. It is a very different situation.

Halo 1 WAS a system mover of the original Xbox, wasn't it?

Judging by the massive tie ratio success on 360 of FPS/action games that would seem to entertain the same demographic of Halo 2, I think it would be hard to argue that there is a massive contingent of Halo 2 fans still waiting to pick it up.

 

[Odysseus]

There were no xboxen to buy nov/dec 04. Shortages.

X360 won't have the same problem this holiday season.

true, december was held back a bit, it could have sold much more given the yearly upswing. microsoft underestimated demand then. that, or they didn't particularly care to satisfy it, given the money losing nature of the box and the fact they were internally focused on 360 by that point.

 

[perfectchaos007]

LoL, What'd I miss?

 

[Battersea Power Station]

I wish I could see a summary of all the interesting posts/charts of this thread. 30 pages is too much to browse.

 

[StoOgE]

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067

well, so far this year the % has been down for almost every month for 360. August will be the first month that will have a healthy gain over last year. Of course the price cut helps, but you can also reason that people are waiting for Halo 3.

yeah, but two years in the xbox had how many pricecuts?

the 360 just had#1 and its not even reflected in these numbers

plus the 360 started @ $100 more

 

[Gorgie]

If Activision is smart and makes Neversoft give the Wii version of GH3 have really cool motion sensing capabilities, it may be the best selling version. (Yes, even the PS2 version, as PS2 owners are migrating to Wii.)

 

[Jirotrom]

for so many consoles sold on Wii and DS, its not reflective software-wise at all.

100 million Ps2s out there right...bit sad that there arent more million sellers on that system.

BTW, fuckity fuck fuck fuck! Wii Sales!

 

[Galactic Fork]

When I first started reading this thread, I thought I was one of the people who guessed the 360>PS3, but then I actually looked at my prediction. I really think this is bad for sony. Yes I know this is the 100% increase they wanted week over week, but I wish we got an actual week by week chart. If the actual sales were 70k, 40k, 30k, 20k. It's not too impressive, but if they were 40k each week, then that's better.

If sony can keep this close to the 360 thread for more than the price drop month, then it won't be so bad. I think both the "doom and gloom" and the "price change doubled sales so it's smooth sailing" are a bit premature.

I'm also really sad the wii outsold the DS. It doesn't feel right without the DS on top.

 

[Mrbob]

The GH3 battle is interesting. Looking at month over month sales for GH2 X360 it is interesting to see the 360 version holding pace with the PS2 version. Could be a nice 3 way dance for sales between PS2/Wii/360 for GH3. No matter who wins, Rock Band is getting fucked up this holiday season.

true, december was held back a bit, it could have sold much more given the yearly upswing. microsoft underestimated demand then. that, or they didn't particularly care to satisfy it, given the money losing nature of the box and the fact they were internally focused on 360 by that point.

Yeah heavy on the last part. MS saw Halo 2 as an opportunity to have a profitable quarter, and undershipped systems so they wouldn't take huge losses on them.

 

[Fuzzy]

100 million Ps2s out there right...bit sad that there arent more million sellers on that system.

Yeah, 100+ in the US alone really sucks.

 

[Lt. Zombie]

.....

HOLY SHIT.

 

[Norse]

100 million Ps2s out there right...bit sad that there arent more million sellers on that system.

BTW, fuckity fuck fuck fuck! Wii Sales!

those 100 million are in 40 million homes.

 

[donny2112]

Yeah, 100+ in the US alone really sucks.

Yeah, that's a kind of pathetic.

Spoiler

The "non" kind of pathetic. :lol

 

[Dai Kaiju]

LoL, What'd I miss?

Death of sales age. Begining of serious buisness.

 

[Mgoblue201]

I believe a system can have bumps from software (that are ultimately marginal at best), but a system shouldn't need bumps in the first place. The best a piece of software can hope for is not to sell great in and of itself but to have long term ramifications on the system. The original Halo brought support to the Xbox that it never would have seen otherwise, and I think that mattered to Microsoft much more than Halo's six million sales in isolation. If you're asking me whether Halo 3 can do that for the 360, I don't think it'll have any long lasting implications beyond the usual expectations that have already been established. Microsoft could've really benefited from GTA this year in some profound ways. Halo made the Xbox brand relevant. I think GTA could make it much more mainstream.

 

[Fuzzy]

Yeah, that's a kind of pathetic.

Spoiler

The "non" kind of pathetic. :lol

I find it more fun to not include spoiler tags sharing what I really think. Try it out some time and let the confusion run wild.

 

[chemicals]

okay. I'm an xbox mark, and even I think that the difference b/w PS3 and 360 sales is pretty irrelevant. Remember that the PS3 price drop still has yet to place it in direct competition with the 360.. it's still over $100 more than the 360.. and the Wii sales don't surprise me. People are buying it that have never bought a console before.. it's a freaking monster.

 

[pickwick]

So Wii outsold DS and PS3 can't beat 360 despite of 100$ reduced price ???

Call it : "July's earthquake in the industry"

 

[Fuzzy]

So what was the final ban count for this month's thread?

 

[pgtl_10]

So what was the final ban count for this month's thread?

a lot

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Well I should be banned by the time I wake up tomorrow so uh.. g'night!

 

[GrimReaper]

a lot

This is GAF, we need numbers.

 

[blazinglazers]

So knowledgeable ones, seriously, how's this all going to pan out in ways we actually care about as gamers? Are we going to see games normally made for 360/PS3 get Wii ports? Is the 360s lead on the PS3 insurmountable at this point? Is the PS3 going to loose more exclusives? Will the 360 loose exclusives to the Wii? How's it going to shake out, and why should we care?

I'm being serious btw, I'm interested in where this is taking us [scared too maybe...]