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[FitzOfRage]

People who weren't predicting Wii/DS to dominate were smoking fucking crack. I expected a few thousand more PS3 sales, but the number of Wiis they got onto shelves is by far the most impressive thing this month.

This month means that the onus is really on the 360 this holiday season if it has any hopes of establishing a lead over the Wii; at this point, that seems highly unlikely. Even with Halo 3, I highly doubt it'll move enough consoles to stay ahead through the holidays in America.

I really think Microsoft could do better if they started focusing on being #1, instead of just focusing on staying ahead of Sony (at one point those were the same goal, but clearly they're not anymore). I mean they really could/should have made a much more viable budget sku, and used that to agressively go after Nintendo.

But judging by all their sku wackiness, and the strange pricing moves, I really think they are content as long as they can say they're ahead of Sony.

And I firmly believe that the biggest threat Nintendo represents right now is the fact that disrupting the staus quo could be enough to draw in fresh competition.

A lot of people like to dismisss Nintendo's success because of the hardware, or becuase they're not going after the same market as Sony or MS, but if other companies out there get a strong sense that there is a way to seriously take on Sony in the video game market, without blowing a $5 billion hole through their companies, you might get a few companies willing to bite.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Because the 360 version of NCAA out sold the PS3+PS2 versions combined. It shows that some sports gamers have moved to next gen and have chose the 360.

This is a huge sign considering the difference between the install base numbers of the two systems. It's funny to see the reality of this when you hear everyone talking about how the PS2 is outselling the 360.

 

[Dalthien]

* Nintendo remained the top U.S. game publisher for the sixth consecutive month.

This stat really makes one laugh at all the people who constantly say that Japan is becoming more and more irrelevant in the west. The top publisher in both western markets (US and Europe) this gen looks to be a japanese publisher. But somehow japanese devs and pubs have become irrelevant in the west.

 

[Odysseus]

No, but you said PS2 was devs only hope for cash. I respectfully disagreed.

no, i said "good thing ps2 is still around so publishers can make some money, huh?"

which you should know that's what i said since you quoted it. where did that say that ps2 was their only hope for cash?

this is not nam, birdie, this is sales-age, there are rules.

i was merely pointing out that ps2 still being relevant is extremely beneficial since, ahem, next-gen is off to a slow start.

 

[Fuzzy]

Any Sales Ager with access...is this the highest July ever, or did PS2 do even better during its glory days?

PS2 was 10K higher in July 2002 but that was just a couple of months after the $299->$199 price drop.

 

[Oblivion]

Wii's fantastic hardware sales are going to end up biting it in the ass b/c of the low tie rations.

Third party publishers who are missing out on free cash by not getting behind the Wii on day 0 are already out for the count until NEXT Christmas. By then, the Wii's tie ratio will be so low, and they'll be doing such serious CYA for why their shitty games like Boogie didn't sell that we're going to hear nothing but "people only buy Nintendo games on Nintendo systems lol".

Dear EA, Ubisoft, et. al: We here at NeoGAF know full well that you've been peddling complete bullshit on the Wii, and that's the primary reason your sudden rush to the platform isn't resulting in sales. So when you have pitiful sales on the platform relative to the others in a year, don't come back with the typical mantra about Nintendo consoles and third parties. The truth is that publishers have traditionally exerted greater effort from the get-go on non-Nintendo platforms explicitly because one doesn't have to compete with Nintendo on them. Simultaneously, latecomers to a platform have always underperformed in sales. Your sales on Wii will continue to suck for at least 18 months, and there's probably nothing you can do about it but pour all the money you can into development.

How much do I love Juice? Let me count thee ways.

 

[LCGeek]

I really think Microsoft could do better if they started focusing on being #1, instead of just focusing on staying ahead of Sony (at one point those were the same goal, but clearly they're not anymore). I mean they really could/should have made a much more viable budget sku, and used that to agressively go after Nintendo.

But judging by all their sku wackiness, and the strange pricing moves, I really think they are content as long as they can say they're ahead of Sony.

And I firmly believe that the biggest threat Nintendo represents right now is the fact that disrupting the staus quo could be enough to draw in fresh competition.

A lot of people like to dismisss Nintendo's success because of the hardware, or becuase they're not going after the same market as Sony or MS, but if other companies out there get a strong sense that there is a way to seriously take on Sony in the video game market, without blowing a $5 billion hole through their companies, you might get a few companies willing to bite.

Yeah because it was sony that made the biz what it is today, true they expanded casual consumer but that was it. Nintendo DS and Wii at this point are proof not to enter the buisness with we could do better or just as good mentality, when nintendo gets motivated even sony and ms have to sweat a little.

 

[Fuzzy]

This stat really makes one laugh at all the people who constantly say that Japan is becoming more and more irrelevant in the west. The top publisher in both western markets (US and Europe) this gen looks to be a japanese publisher. But somehow japanese devs and pubs have become irrelevant in the west.

Most disregard Nintendo since it's not a third party publisher.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Oh and I do believe that I got my Wii in July.
Which reminds me of a funny story.

My mother called me the other day and we talked about some things. Then out of nowhere she says "I had fun playing with your Wii last night."

Okay that wasn't a funny story. But hey whatever.


Glad I could contribute to the insanity.

 

[Juice]

I really think Microsoft could do better if they started focusing on being #1.

Whether that's what's best is irrelevant. They HAVE been striving for this (even though they incorrectly thought the path to #1 was through the PS3), but now the tone at Microsoft is to turn profitable and to turnover all of the leadership who has in the past instead focused on marketshare. At this point, murmers I'm hearing are that MS execs just want the 360 profitable, to hell with marketshare/first place

Oh and I do believe that I got my Wii in July.

Glad I could contribute to the insanity.

Isn't that akin to betting against yourself?

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Isn't that akin to betting against yourself?

Not really. The only bet I made against myself was the PS3 selling over 200k. And I lost that one. The mods are thinking of a witty ban message right now I believe.

And I'm having a lot of fun with the Wii btw. RE4 Wii edition is fantastic and I can definitely understand why Wiisports is as popular as it is. VC is way awesome as well.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

At this point, murmers I'm hearing are that MS execs just want the 360 profitable, to hell with marketshare/first place

And if that can't be done? Sony has effectively undone itself, so the worry of millions of Linux-capable boxes around the world undermining the Windows monopoly should be put at rest. Do you think they would still try for a third round, having achieved what they set out to do?

 

[Shin Johnpv]

So updates anyone?

I still say Sony is in no way in trouble or doomed. Guys we got a long way to go. Excluding the Wii.

You guys acted as if Sony didn't know this was going to happen when they priced their console.

They fully expected it.

"We can sell the first 5 million with out any games!"

No I would say the didn't expect this at all. This is the complete opposite of what they expected.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

no, i said "good thing ps2 is still around so publishers can make some money, huh?"

which you should know that's what i said since you quoted it. where did that say that ps2 was their only hope for cash?

this is not nam, birdie, this is sales-age, there are rules.

i was merely pointing out that ps2 still being relevant is extremely beneficial since, ahem, next-gen is off to a slow start.

Well, I mean. I'm not disagreeing with you, and I know what you said and I remember reading and quoting it but, really your sentence doesn't mean what you think it means.

"Good thing PS2 is still around (the reality driving the sentence) so publishers can make some money, huh? (a situation [make some money, huh?] that this sentence directly implies would not otherwise exist)"

That's how I read the sentence. I apologize if I misconstrued it.

 

[Odysseus]

Well, I mean. I'm not disagreeing with you, and I know what you said and I remember reading and quoting it but, really your sentence doesn't mean what you think it means.

inconceivable

 

[Merovingian]

And if that can't be done? Sony has effectively undone itself, so the worry of millions of Linux-capable boxes around the world undermining the Windows monopoly should be put at rest. Do you think they would still try for a third round, having achieved what they set out to do?

Unless they make a deal with Sony to get Xbox live and Windows Api, and codecs on it, then yeah they won't go away.

They are planning it already. 360 will be profiteable this gen anyway.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

This is a huge sign considering the difference between the install base numbers of the two systems. It's funny to see the reality of this when you hear everyone talking about how the PS2 is outselling the 360.

At this point, I think the PS2 is simply the cheapest way for people to play Guitar Hero. I think much of its sustained sales can be attributed to GH2 and now, Rocks the 80's. NCAA going from typically over a million sold to under 200k is a baffling drop, unless you consider the possibility that sports gamers have simply given up on the platform. If I remember correctly, MLB2k7 outsold The Show, but not by quite as much.

I think when most people say that Japan doesn't matter in the west, they are referring to Japanese hardware sales, which have negligible effects on the increasing software strength of Western publishers.

 

[Gahiggidy]

:lol I just had a thought... do retail workers even bother to put Wii on shelves???... or do they just sell them directly out of the pallet boxes... holding them up in the air for the next person to walk by and grab it?

 

[Scottlarock]

been posted atleast a thousand times, but for nintendo to go from the GC to the Wii in sales is freakin insane, and doing it with basically last gen tech, over chargin for it and adding a waggle, holy shit! same with xbox, which everyone thought was dead doing 70k a month to comeback and beat the sony brand playstation. Sony really fucked up. the 100 mil. PS2, the PS3 will be lucky to do 25 mil.

 

[Dalthien]

360 will be profiteable this gen anyway.

No it won't. Not for the generation as a whole. It will no doubt have a profitable quarter here and there, and if things go really well, they might even have a couple profitable years - but they've already lost so much money on the 360 that they're not making it all back.

 

[nategc]

wow, a pricedrop didnt even help sony......

 

[Odysseus]

:lol I just had a thought... do retail workers even bother to put Wii on shelves???... or do they just sell them directly out of the pallet boxes... holding them up in the air for the next person to walk by and grab it?

how does your aunt handle it?

 

[Juice]

And if that can't be done? Sony has effectively undone itself, so the worry of millions of Linux-capable boxes around the world undermining the Windows monopoly should be put at rest. Do you think they would still try for a third round, having achieved what they set out to do?

If the 360 never turns an ROI, the leadership at Microsoft is such that they could realistically pass on a sequel, IMO

 

[xsarien]

been posted atleast a thousand times, but for nintendo to go from the GC to the Wii in sales is freakin insane, and doing it with basically last gen tech, over chargin for it and adding a waggle, holy shit! same with xbox, which everyone thought was dead doing 70k a month to comeback and beat the sony brand playstation. Sony really fucked up. the 100 mil. PS2, the PS3 will be lucky to do 25 mil.

And integrated, Flash-based storage, and wireless networking, and the e-commerce, and the SD-reader, and the news, weather and web browser, and the USB ports, and the fancy, slot-loadin' drive that can take mini-discs, and the waggle ain't cheap.

But yeah, totally the same thing.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Is anyone else thinking that Guitar hero on the Wii, is going to sell an insane amount of copies?

I mean, I'm thinking GAFasspload levels. It seems to fit the Wii so well.

 

[Fuzzy]

:lol I just had a thought... do retail workers even bother to put Wii on shelves???... or do they just sell them directly out of the pallet boxes... holding them up in the air for the next person to walk by and grab it?

It's funny you say that since I went to buy Brain Age 2 today and they just had dummy cases on the shelf in Best Buy saying to go to the cashier. All the copies were just laying there waiting to be sold. :lol

 

[AniHawk]

Is anyone else thinking that Guitar hero on the Wii, is going to sell an insane amount of copies?

I mean, I'm thinking GAFasspload levels. It seems to fit the Wii so well.

Yeah, I definitely see GH on the Wii doing a shitload amount. It will be a legendary December with an entire month of SSBB, SMG, and GH (for all systems).

 

[schuelma]

Is anyone else thinking that Guitar hero on the Wii, is going to sell an insane amount of copies?

I mean, I'm thinking GAFasspload levels. It seems to fit the Wii so well.

Yup. Rock Band isn't an option for Wii owners, it definitely fits the console well.

 

[siamesedreamer]

my unofficial forecast for the remainder of the year's 360 sales is

aug 300k
sep 350k
oct 250k
nov 600k
dec 1200k

subject to change after august npd. i think august will be the weekly average peak until black friday, and then november and december will get the requisite holiday boosts. the fly in the ointment is the halo 360 sku. it may or may not be a factor.

With Halo 3 and the Halo 3 LE 360 coming out?

Pfft...

 

[Merovingian]

No it won't. Not for the generation as a whole. It will no doubt have a profitable quarter here and there, and if things go really well, they might even have a couple profitable years - but they've already lost so much money on the 360 that they're not making it all back.

Why do you say that exactly? What they lost is pretty standard, they lost no more than Sony for example.

Don't talk about that which you know nothing about. They (And sony) just don't have the same model as Nintendo (Sell at a profit day 1).

 

[Fuzzy]

wow, a pricedrop didnt even help sony......

I wouldn't call doubling sales not helping.

 

[xsarien]

With Halo 3 and the Halo 3 LE 360 coming out?

Pfft...

I think it's a perfectly fair assumption to make that a healthy chunk of people waiting for Halo 3 have already purchased their 360s in anticipation.

 

[Wyndstryker]

:lol I just had a thought... do retail workers even bother to put Wii on shelves???... or do they just sell them directly out of the pallet boxes... holding them up in the air for the next person to walk by and grab it?

they just sell em straight from the truck. no need to unload.

 

[Fafalada]

It's funny to see the reality of this when you hear everyone talking about how the PS2 is outselling the 360.

This will be worth revisiting when 360 SW LTD at least reaches what PS2 stills sells every year, right now it still has ways to go.
Although I guess if PS2 SW finally starts dropping this year, it may be easier.

 

[Slurpy]

FortunateSon can't really believe what hes posting. I firmly believe his posts are pure parody. I especially like the 'Sony fully expected this' bit. Post of the week.

In other news, I saw 2 wiis sitting in a store for the 1st time since launch today. I was in Costco, and I just assumed they were display boxes. I picked one up, and lo and behold, it was heavy, and my heart skipped a beat because of the shock. You have to understand, where I live wiis are nowhere to be seen. I woulda picked it up right there and then if I had a costco card.. which I didnt. I stopped by 10 min later and they were both gone.

 

[Merovingian]

I think it's a perfectly fair assumption to make that a healthy chunk of people waiting for Halo 3 have already purchased their 360s in anticipation.

Stupid assumption. Or that would hold true for every big game on every system. Why it only works for Halo3 is something i can't understand, so please....go ahead.

 

[siamesedreamer]

I think it's a perfectly fair assumption to make that a healthy chunk of people waiting for Halo 3 have already purchased their 360s in anticipation.

That theory was debunked with Halo 2...

 

[xsarien]

Stupid assumption. Or that would hold true for every big game on every system. Why it only works for Halo3 is something i can't understand, so please....go ahead.

For the same reason that people bought Wiis in anticipation of Mario Galaxy, PS3s in anticipation of FFXIII, and, well, 360s in anticipation of Halo 3.

Fanboys, they can have fat wallets.

 

[TheGreatDave]

Stupid assumption. Or that would hold true for every big game on every system. Why it only works for Halo3 is something i can't understand, so please....go ahead.

Halo 3 as a game shares a lot of characteristics with games already on the system. A Halo fan is probably an FPS fan, in which case a 360 has probably been appealing to them for a long time.

I'm sure Halo will sell a ton of systems and all and lots of people who want it have waited because they have to save up. But it's got a crossover with existing popular trends.

 

[Arsenal]

The development side is where this is most dangerous. As we can see, developers have already read the Wii writing loud and clear and have started developing for it. PS3 having shown no such signs of confidence, which means 2008 multiplatforms will be looking just as grim for the PS3 as they do this year.

When your console is more expensive, "no discernable difference" is not what you want. At all.

Well, controller issues aside, at least Wii games will be easily converted to the PS3...

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

For the same reason that people bought Wiis in anticipation of Mario Galaxy, PS3s in anticipation of FFXIII, and, well, 360s in anticipation of Halo 3.

Fanboys, they can have fat wallets.

You should go ahead and make your August/September/October 360 predictions now then instead of beating around the bush.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Halo 3 as a game shares a lot of characteristics with games already on the system. A Halo fan is probably an FPS fan, in which case a 360 has probably been appealing to them for a long time.

I'm sure Halo will sell a ton of systems and all and lots of people who want it have waited because they have to save up. But it's got a crossover with existing popular trends.

Why does DS hardware spike with a Pokemon release then?

 

[Dalthien]

Why do you say that exactly? What they lost is pretty standard, they lost no more than Sony for example.

Don't talk about that which you know nothing about. They (And sony) just don't have the same model as Nintendo (Sell at a profit day 1).

Data taken from bycha's thread - Link

FY*       Sony**        Nintendo        Microsoft
1998    974,000,000    629,000,000
1999   1,130,000,000   645,000,000
2000    730,000,000    421,000,000
2001    -409,000,000   726,000,000
2002    623,000,000    800,000,000     -750,000,000
2003    939,000,000    560,000,000     -1,191,000,000
2004    650,000,000    316,000,000     -1,215,000,000
2005    404,000,000    777,000,000     -485,000,000
2006    75,000,00      894,000,000     -1,262,000,000
2007   -1,969,000,000  1,489,000,000   -1,892,000,000
2008    -237,000,000    680,000,000                       
Totals  2,910,000,000  7,937,000,000    -6,795,000,000

Microsoft – Entertainment and Devices Division (Home and Entertainment) through 4th Q FY 2007 ended June 30 2007
Sony – Game division through 1st Q FY 2007 ended June 30 2007
Nintendo – Overall through 1st Q FY 2008 ended June 30 2007. Average exchange rate: 1 US $ = 118 yen[/quote]

So taking 2005-2007 for MS, they've lost roughtly $3.6 billion on the X360 thus far, give or take a small amount for the rest of the H&E Division.

Now take a look at the best possible 3 year period that either Sony or Nintendo ever had in the time period posted - and tell me if you find anything coming close to $3.6 billion in profits. Now do you really think the X360 is poised to outperform Sony or Nintendo's best 3-year period in the past 10 years?

The X360 won't come close to being profitable if you are speaking about the entire generation.

 

[Bildi]

I think Xbox 360 is becoming the PSP of hardware sales.

Not the top dawg, but a decent second showing.

Sort of. Except one race has three competitors and one race only has two.

 

[xsarien]

You should go ahead and make your August/September/October 360 predictions now then instead of beating around the bush.

I haven't participated in any one of the prediction threads, and I'm not going to start now.

Also: Judging by some of the reactions in here, a lot of the armchair analysts in this side of NeoGAF didn't do too well either. So are you guys REALLY the ones to talk?

 

[Odysseus]

That theory was debunked with Halo 2...

halo 2 did not sell an exorbitant number of systems in the month it launched. i maintain that in america, game releases do not have a significant, immediate impact on home console sales. those are affected by overall momentum over time, aided by price drops. halo 3 has been selling consoles since november 22, 2005 and will sell them until november 22, 2012 or whenever it is microsoft pulls the plug on 360. but a lot of them on or around september 25, over and above existing trends? doubt it.

for the record, here's the percentage increases for xbox's 2004 sales over the same months in 2003 leading up to halo 2's launch

month	increase
1	17%
2	3%
3	20%
4	135%
5	76%
6	57%
7	47%
8	49%
9	54%
10	23%
11	45%

tell me, did xbox receive a significant boost in november? or was it riding the wave it had been riding all year, particularly following the price drop that hit in april? further, if halo 2 was selling all of those consoles then, it was selling them all year. it would follow that halo 3 has been selling them all year as well. but the increases you are going to see for august and later months are going to be primarily associated with the recent price drop.

 

[Scottlarock]

And integrated, Flash-based storage, and wireless networking, and the e-commerce, and the SD-reader, and the news, weather and web browser, and the USB ports, and the fancy, slot-loadin' drive that can take mini-discs, and the waggle ain't cheap.

But yeah, totally the same thing.

but those are addon to increased percieved value, PS3 did that too. it is selling because of the waggle and a new way to play the games. With the games being created by Ninty. Thats why they won, same with the DS, new way to play with great games by nintendo. those extras don't mean much by why its selling. Nintendo took a huge gamble and it paid off.

 

[TheGreatDave]

Why does DS hardware spike with a Pokemon release then?

How many Pokemon-style games were on the DS before Diamond and Pearl were released?

 

[Mrbob]

Sort of. Except one race has three competitors and one race only has two.

Wii = DS

360 = PSP

PS3 = GBA

 

[Odysseus]

Wii = DS

360 = PSP

PS3 = GBA

"i would have beaten ps3, too, if it weren't for those meddling price-dropping kids" --gba