Between Crash remastered and Sonic Mania this has been a really bad summer for the "[X mascot platformer] was never good!" crowd.
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Between Crash remastered and Sonic Mania this has been a really bad summer for the "[X mascot platformer] was never good!" crowd.
SuperBudgie1582
Neo Member
A huge failure? Really? 30 million consoles in any generation should be considered a moderate success.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Based on this, I'm gonna say the Switch's first 11 month's will beat the Wii's. I would say 12 months but factoring in the Wii's 2nd November makes things trickier.
D.Lo
Member
It's both. The console is a moderate success all thing considered historically, but they were poised to take the US and dropped the ball.
I mean the Wii U outsold every Sega single console except one, but is still probably the biggest ever failure in gaming due to the drop from its predecessor.
SuperBudgie1582
Neo Member
At the end of its lifetime with holiday bundles and the Scorpi, the Xbox one will atleast get to 40 million. The Wii U probably wont get to 15 million, its not comparable.
The PS3 isnt anywhere close to the PS2, doesn't mean its a failure.
D.Lo
Member
Uh, what?
I made no comparison with the Wii U, I compared the Wii U to Sega consoles to show that failure/success is always relative.
And on several metrics the PS3 was a catastrophic failure. In money lost, only Microsoft consoles compare, and it sold ~80 million less than its predecessor. It recovered well to a stronger position at the end of the generation through sheer force of money reinvested.
SuperBudgie1582
Neo Member
And im trying to say that success isnt realitive. Factually, the Xbox One has sold fine and will end up with respectable lifetime sales. That is not a failure regardless of how the 360 performed.
D.Lo
Member
Success in sales numbers is always relative.
Small developers cheer when their game sells 200k, whereas 200k would be a disaster for some games.
Jon Carter
Member
Success isn't relative? Did you think this through?
Jaded Alyx
Member
Surrendering the market share from the previous console generation to such a degree can only be considered a failure to be honest.
SuperBudgie1582
Neo Member
Same thing with Console developers. If the Xbox Division is making money, than does it really matter if the PS4 and Switch are beasting?
Papacheeks
Banned
Well I'm pretty sure they are making revenue, for sure, but net profit that's still to be determined.
Were you the guy in Nokia board meetings disparaging the smart phone craze?
Count me in as one of those people who wanted to see a extremely hot product going exclusive ( even if for a time period ) on a console only. I want to see the impact of PBUG for Xbox One and the an extent, against the PS4.
As for Switch, I personally find it interesting in the rising rate of Nintendo's youtube subscriber count since Switch reveal and the rather big number of views some of its games is getting. The Xbox channel seems dead comparatively.
At the start of the gen, though I was at the much higher end of the spectrum, I was wrong that the PS4 would do 70M LTD and I confident in my memory that only super fans predicted 100M+. I have about the same number for Switch atm and I would be happy to be wrong again.
As for Switch, I personally find it interesting in the rising rate of Nintendo's youtube subscriber count since Switch reveal and the rather big number of views some of its games is getting. The Xbox channel seems dead comparatively.
At the start of the gen, though I was at the much higher end of the spectrum, I was wrong that the PS4 would do 70M LTD and I confident in my memory that only super fans predicted 100M+. I have about the same number for Switch atm and I would be happy to be wrong again.
D.Lo
Member
Goalposts? Success isn't just 'make some money' either. Nintendo probably made an overall profit on the Wii U all up, especially given they are now able to repurpose its tools and even game library on a system people actually want, I guess it was a rousing success!
Besides, nobody knows if the Xbox is currently making money (those with insider knowledge say it is not). But given the Xbox and 360 made huge losses, it appears Microsoft's goal is not to make money, but to sell more consoles. Which they have failed to do, they blew their momentum on the 360 and will now limp home with a 50% drop. If it wasn't for the Wii U failing even harder, their marketshare drop would be even more than 50%.
SuperBudgie1582
Neo Member
In what world is 30 million consoles sold considered a failure?
Console failures: Sega Dreamcast, Wii U, ColecoVision. The Xbox One is not in that category.
Console failures: Sega Dreamcast, Wii U, ColecoVision. The Xbox One is not in that category.
joe_zazen
Member
It is a phenomenon, but how similar are console and pc audiences? For example, GTA online is huge, but is anyone on pc playing that?
So yeah, count me in the crowd that wants to see what happens. How long is the exclusivity period?
Jaded Alyx
Member
So what's the figure you have to pass to automatically not be a failure?
SuperBudgie1582
Neo Member
I wouldnt consider the GameCube a failure even though it only sold 20 million, so probably anything below that.
Jon Carter
Member
In a world where success is relative, which is this one.
Iwata said there was no point in continuing to make consoles if it was to sell like the GameCube. It's a failure through and through.
Jaded Alyx
Member
You don't realise how that doesn't make sense?
20 million - not a failure
19 million - failure
Or
Company A sells 15 million consoles, Company B sells 20 million. A is a failure.
Company A sells 22 million consoles, Company B sells 150 million. A is a success.
???
OrbitalBeard
Member
Nintendo themselves consider Gamecube a failure.
Nintendo is smart though and have the ability to transform failures (GCN and Wii U) into successes (Wii and Switch).
lwilliams3
Member
I guess calling it a failure is subjective, but going from around 85 million in the previous gen to 30 million is definitely a disappointment. People are understandably a bit concerned about Xbox trailing behind in their strongest market, and it seems that PS4 and Switch are kicking the wind out of the chances of a significant improvement in a future. The holidays will be interesting.
Now lets hope that they can avoid the miss-hit-miss-hit pattern that they had for their consoles. The consolidation of their portable and console teams will make things unpredictable.
D.Lo
Member
It's not really a pattern, they were hits and misses for very different reasons.
Gamecube wasn't a too expensive underpowered marketing mess with a dumb, confusing name, a box that looked identical to the last console, with a central gimmick no-one wanted, coming off a massively successful breakout hit. Gamecube was a powerful, cheap, decently named machine coming off a middling success machine, that just happened to be up against an international multimedia juggernaut brilliantly riding DVD and the success of their last platform to an insurmountable lead, and another huge company joining who was willing to lose 4 billion dollars to get their foot in the door.
If the Wii U was a powerful cheap console with a good name (just Super Wii would have been fine) with a souped up version of their last controller (aka a normal direct Wii successor), who the hell knows how it would have done, it may actually have won, given PS4/Bone ended up pretty middling spec PC machines with the same controllers, aka PS360 2.
Context matters. Sony going from 150 million+ consoles sold, to ~85 million and a complete wipe of 10 years of profits is a failure. Microsoft going from ~25 million consoles sold to ~85 million is a huge success.
So, in context, falling to half that number in the following generation while your opponent eats your lunch would definitely be a failure.
So, in context, falling to half that number in the following generation while your opponent eats your lunch would definitely be a failure.
NipplesAndToes23
Member
How is GTAV still selling like that?
2blackcats
Member
How long did it take to sell 85 million though.
AdventureRacing
Member
I think there are many metrics to determine success.
-Amount of consoles sold
-amount of profit made
-amount of revenue made
-comparison to previous performance
-comparison to oppositions performance
-Consuler engagement and retention
-how does it stack up to the goals of the manufacturer
-what impact it has on the brand going forward
IMO the xbone is either a disappointment or an outright failure by all of these metrics and I'm certain MS wanted and expected better from all of them. They went from selling 85-90 million and seeing huge growth in the market to the point where they were almost the market leader.
Now they're going to struggle to sell even 50 million and won't even come close to half of their main competition. Their major 1st party brands have gone backwards and they're no longer the default for 3rd parties.
I'm pretty sure MS aren't in this market to eek out a decent install base. I'm also sure they don't invest billions just to get back a meek amount of profit.
The worst part is going forward. Right now the PS4 is a steam train running away with this gen and they are perfectly poised to continue that domination going forward. Their 1st party is stronger than ever and they essentially have all 3rd party support on board. So whilst xbone might not be a monumental failure on the level of the wii U or dreamcast it has left MS in a difficult place going forward.
-Amount of consoles sold
-amount of profit made
-amount of revenue made
-comparison to previous performance
-comparison to oppositions performance
-Consuler engagement and retention
-how does it stack up to the goals of the manufacturer
-what impact it has on the brand going forward
IMO the xbone is either a disappointment or an outright failure by all of these metrics and I'm certain MS wanted and expected better from all of them. They went from selling 85-90 million and seeing huge growth in the market to the point where they were almost the market leader.
Now they're going to struggle to sell even 50 million and won't even come close to half of their main competition. Their major 1st party brands have gone backwards and they're no longer the default for 3rd parties.
I'm pretty sure MS aren't in this market to eek out a decent install base. I'm also sure they don't invest billions just to get back a meek amount of profit.
The worst part is going forward. Right now the PS4 is a steam train running away with this gen and they are perfectly poised to continue that domination going forward. Their 1st party is stronger than ever and they essentially have all 3rd party support on board. So whilst xbone might not be a monumental failure on the level of the wii U or dreamcast it has left MS in a difficult place going forward.
Jaded Alyx
Member
People buy a PS4 or an XBOX ONE, they buy GTAV with it. Simple.
titiklabingapat
Member
Re: switch sales honeymoon
This isn't how consoles sales work:
Month 1: 500k (supply constrained so only hardcore buy it)
Month 2: 500k (supply constrained)
Month 3: 500k (supply constrained)
Montj 4: 450k (demand satisfied)
Month 5: 430k (sales start approaching the sales of the predecessor)
Month 6: 0 (sales suddenly stop).
In reality, the first few months will always be a mix with a higher proportion of the dedicated buying it initially then the general public gets in on it as worth of mouth spread. The more months pass, the more of them will buy it. We are in the 6th month of the Switch and by this time in the Wii U timeline, it was clear that it was a dud, especially after the two months of holiday sales.
We haven't even gotten into the holidays yet and the Switch is already penetrating the general public consciousness and it's still supply constrained. Something is obviously different this time.
This isn't how consoles sales work:
Month 1: 500k (supply constrained so only hardcore buy it)
Month 2: 500k (supply constrained)
Month 3: 500k (supply constrained)
Montj 4: 450k (demand satisfied)
Month 5: 430k (sales start approaching the sales of the predecessor)
Month 6: 0 (sales suddenly stop).
In reality, the first few months will always be a mix with a higher proportion of the dedicated buying it initially then the general public gets in on it as worth of mouth spread. The more months pass, the more of them will buy it. We are in the 6th month of the Switch and by this time in the Wii U timeline, it was clear that it was a dud, especially after the two months of holiday sales.
We haven't even gotten into the holidays yet and the Switch is already penetrating the general public consciousness and it's still supply constrained. Something is obviously different this time.
gundamkyoukai
Member
At this point we should at this to the first post .
That same question get ask every month lol .
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
MS blew way too much money in R&D and marketing in both the One and now the One X that I can see them brute forcing their way to 50-60 million when all is said and done with more aggressive price cuts and bundles. But the "Xbox One" brand is absolutely tainted at this point that it needs a reboot once the One and One X run its course. Maybe spin Xbox out into a tablet to compete with the Switch, maybe make an affordable, less powerful console to run Minecraft and have 360 compatibly or something or maybe get someone who knows content to reinvigorate their first party and not make empty promises. Whatever they do I wish them the best, but boy has it been a mess for them this gen.
To whom it may concern
Microsoft Ireland Tech Gathering in Dublin OCTOBER 2016:
The presentation was by a partner who has the app "The Mall" on Xbox One to sell physical goods
Microsoft Ireland Tech Gathering in Dublin OCTOBER 2016:
The presentation was by a partner who has the app "The Mall" on Xbox One to sell physical goods
US Share in Total XBOX Sales around 64%
"Only the hardcore are buying it; it will drop like a rock afterwards" was always a bullshit meme. Consoles do have different sales arcs(the explosion of the DS in its second year, the Wii's weakening later years, the surprising longevity of the 360 and PS3), such that any predictions about Switch's final sales can only be very general at best, but there's no precedent for a system selling out for months and then just collapsing. The Switch is clearly performing more like a successful Nintendo handheld than an unpopular Nintendo home console.
Like 7 years, we are already 4 years into this generation meaning they have 3 years to sell 55 million consoles. Well I guess there are some people who think the xbonex will sell that number.
gundamkyoukai
Member
There is no way they getting any where near that numbers even with price cuts .
The system is cheap and they still down YoY in there strongest market .
Truth is we will see how bad things are come Nov \ Dec since they always sell good around that time.
And before someone says Wii U. That was never sold out for months.
Yes, it sold out at launch in the US on Black Friday Week where it only had 400k units available but was it sold out in December? January?
Let me remind you that Nintendo initially shipped 3.06 million Wii U units worldwide, and it took another 9 months for that figure to move to 3.91 million units total.
It moved only 850k units in 9 months after the launch quarter. We didn't even need to wait that long to find out it bombed, we only had to wait for the quarter after launch where Nintendo were only able to ship 390k units worldwide. That's nothing like the Switch has done so far so to expect the Switch to fall off a cliff in sales after the hardcore have bought it is foolish, or you are just some stupid troll who is going to move the goalposts after being proven wrong.
Maybe he's using success in the archaic form: the good or bad of a undertaking.
D.Lo
Member
When it passes Wii U within a year, which will kill that point as well as the 'Nintendo consoles have been in constant decline from the start, randomly excepting the Wii from this argument because reasons', the goalposts will smoothly shift to 'well it's actually a handheld and Nintendo handhelds always sell well'. So unfortunately we'll be seeing this meme until the Switch hits 60 million or so.
Bitch Pudding
Member
"Failure" is such a harsh word, let's call it "below expectations", which were kinda high .
Besides, they managed to keep up with Sony during the last generation - on a global scale. And they were clear market leader in their two biggest (1-tier) markets, US and UK. With XBOX One, they lost a lot of that market share which they achieved last time by heavily investing in new exciting IPs, especially very early in the generation.
Not being number #1 WW maybe something the XBOX division can deal with, but being outsold ~1:2 right now on their home turff sure as hell isn't a "success story".
To whom it may concern
Microsoft Ireland Tech Gathering in Dublin OCTOBER 2016:
The presentation was by a partner who has the app "The Mall" on Xbox One to sell physical goods
US Share in Total XBOX Sales around 64%
Now that's interesting. We do know that by the end of June 2017, XBOX One's LTD amounted to 16.84mn units in the US.
If that 64% ratio* is still accurate it leads us to 26,3mn XBOX One units sold WW by the end of June 2017, which is a ratio of 1:2,3 cp. to the 60,4mn PS4s sold which was announced in mid June.
Please be aware of rounding effects here. The actual ratio could be anything between 60-67%, resulting in a total spectrum from 25 to 28mn units for XBOX One.
Welfare
Member
That is interesting, as XB1 was only at 13M at the end of September 2016, and this slide is from October 3, 2016 so the most accurate data would be as of August 2016, which was 12.7M. 14M for USA is incorrect, so maybe the slide is meant to be North America?To whom it may concern
Microsoft Ireland Tech Gathering in Dublin OCTOBER 2016:
The presentation was by a partner who has the app "The Mall" on Xbox One to sell physical goods
US Share in Total XBOX Sales around 64%
geordiemp
Member
How does it get longer when I never claimed anything different, take Ps4 first year (18 million was it ?), it is was not so easy to see whether its a 30 or 100 or 60 million trajectory. Thats because core fans buy PS anyway. Its easier to see trajectory after 12 months for Ps4 is it not ?
Same goes for Switch. Core fans snap up new consoles, news at 11. You are being overdramatic, imagine if Switch sells same as ps4 in first year, Nintendo GAF would be calling the slaying of Apple lol.
I'm a pony but not a super pony, and my beginning of gen prediction was 100m if Sony can match or marginally beat MS in NA, while achieving broadly similar sales to PS3 over the RotW.
How long is a honeymoon period supposed to be? I started hearing that shit months ago for the first time and no one ever set a time range for it.
Of course you said 6 months but I started hearing it right after Mario Kart 8 Deluxe came out.
If anything, the Wii U never even had a honeymoon period considering it only shipped 850k units worldwide for 9 months after the launch quarter, that tells me more about no one buying the Wii U than core fans buying it.
D.Lo
Member
No. PS4 was successful because the general public and market as a whole were interested enough to buy it. It was what they wanted at the right price at the right time. It wasn't 'core PS fans', where were 18 million 'core PS fans' when PS3 and Vita spluttered out of the gate in their first years? They were buying Wii and 360 because the market wanted them better.
To whom it may concern
Microsoft Ireland Tech Gathering in Dublin OCTOBER 2016:
The presentation was by a partner who has the app "The Mall" on Xbox One to sell physical goods
US Share in Total XBOX Sales around 64%
Looks like rounded numbers from VG Chartz:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160909195248/http://www.********.com/analysis/platform_totals/
Replace the asterisks with VG Chartz (no space in between)
I'm curious to know what happens when the 3DS falls completely off the charts.
Is Nintendo's strategy to merge the home and portable console market and just accept that one will have to die for the other to live?
I don't know how they are making up the difference if instead of selling 3DS and console games/hardware, they are now only selling home consoles?
I wonder if there is a chance they could move into a budget handheld line once 3DS eventually dies or if this is just going to be the way forward.
Is Nintendo's strategy to merge the home and portable console market and just accept that one will have to die for the other to live?
I don't know how they are making up the difference if instead of selling 3DS and console games/hardware, they are now only selling home consoles?
I wonder if there is a chance they could move into a budget handheld line once 3DS eventually dies or if this is just going to be the way forward.
Welfare
Member
Oh hahahah of course it would be.
#FrommypointofviewtheJediareevil
wapplew
Member
So those numbers in the picture is bullshit?