Canis lupus
Member
Wasn't it you who posted the gamecrate link in this thread?
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NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Wasn't it you who posted the gamecrate link in this thread?
Aquamarine
Member
But we have leakers who come here every month and give us all of the relevant hardware numbers and the major software numbers. I'm not sure the party is exactly "ruined."
No but I don't understand how a party was ruined if you weren't invited. (Read: didn't know about it, nor had it shared to you via indirect means.)
As long as you know how to read the proper winks and nods in the appropriate NeoGAF posts, you usually get the data you need
Sounds like a perception check in D&D terms.As long as you know how to read the proper winks and nods in the appropriate NeoGAF posts, you usually get the data you need
vvv
haha. But seriously you don't know (or maybe you do!) how much actual hard data you can get from the right posters simply quoting someone and saying something appropriately enigmatic. Sometimes you can get entire swaths of data confirmed in a second!
It's actually really fun, like you can read the secret code language behind the posting scene
We just need more lesser-known video game websites accidentally posting the numbers.
metalslimer
Member
I do think there has been a perception change with Wiiu. However I think that means it won't go back to selling 30-40k anytime soon and instead will sell 70-100 which still horrendous because the system is dead every where else in the world and Japan's salesare too small. Looking at this months sales which are not even good to begin with after the biggest game that will ever release on wiiu and predicting a huge change is foolhardy.
Personally though I love the nintendo 1st party offerings on the way and I'm sad they didn't find their footing earlier. With a 250 launch price and more games like are coming next year they might have been able to find a better place.
Personally though I love the nintendo 1st party offerings on the way and I'm sad they didn't find their footing earlier. With a 250 launch price and more games like are coming next year they might have been able to find a better place.
Honestly, the problem I see is that MK8 came at the right time and there's not many more of those times in the future coming. I don't know how Wii U is going to keep its head in the game with the game onslaught that is going to begin to come to PS4/XBO/PC exclusively over that platform. There will be games that cause momentary bumps like this, such as Smash Bros., but it's just going to get buried by the infinite amount of more games coming to the other platforms over Wii U. There's just no way Nintendo can compete.
Their only goal should be to try to figure a way to turn a profit out of Wii U, and then start fresh with their next console imo. They are going to have a killer 2015 year for games if you're a Wii U owner, but I think illusions that they can turn it even into a Gamecube in terms of success might be a bit far fetched. I hope they do, though. Their E3 2014 really impressed me.
Canis lupus
Member
Ah my bad
Found the dude who posted the link on gaf http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=121540180#post121540180It's a party that you didn't need an invite for, gamecrate was posting these numbers for 4 months until someone realized they were actually posting confidential stuff. But it would've been nice if the people who discovered it had the foresight to not share the links. I mean surely it would've been found out sooner or later but at least we would've snooped a bit more lol.
metalslimer
Member
I can't fault people for not knowing to hide leaks. People still ask why the stuff we do get isn't posted in the OP. These threads are too big and there are too many members to have everyone try and keep quiet.
rokkerkory
Member
drop price of wii u to $150?
metalslimer
Member
Which then destroys any chance of making a profit. Of course I think nintendo will never profit on the system overall after the start it had.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
sörine;121721635 said:
Vita is above the Saturn in terms of US LTD, but I think it's pretty much impossible it hits anywhere near the DC LTD in the US. It seems like the demand might actually be a bit better than what we're seeing, but SCEA doesn't even care to restock the device....
Month to month the Wii U has basically done a bit worse or a little better than the Dreamcast (except this month) and is about 800K behind at the moment. I think now that it looks like it'll be fully supported it'll probably surpass the DC LTD for what that's worth (what was the DC's LTD in the US? I heard the Wii U is tracking like 800K behind for the same time frame).
Also do people not understand the joy some folks are seeing with Wii U numbers? The Wii U has basically managed to be under most folk's low expectations month after month. For once, it actually did better than our pessimistic views held (GAF prediction average was like 95K right?). For me at least, it shows the Wii U has a pulse.
I personally think the Wii U sales will decrease, but somewhat hold in July. They might fall in August though. The MK free game promotion is still going (until 7/31), and thus folks will likely continue to buy MK8 quite a bit. Even if it were to sell like 100K more this month (I suspect it'll be higher in all honesty), that will continue some of the word of mouth it likely got in June, and thus folks might buy Wii Us. Also, The MK8 Wii U bundle still has been out of stock all month at GameStop & Best Buy stores from what I've seen so far in July, so the question is have the purchases slowed down in other stores and if so, by how much.
Some potentially meaningless Amazon comparisons...
June best sellers:
1. Mario Kart 8
6. PS4 Console
16. Tomodachi Life
17. Watch Dogs PS4
39. Super Mario 3D World
49. XB1 w/o Kinect
59. Wii U M&L Deluxe Bundle (slightly overpriced 3rd party seller)
July best sellers (so far):
6. Mario Kart 8 (beaten by Destiny PS4 preorders, GTAV 360 (not sure why it's so high in July), and PSN cards
11. PS4 console
26. Tomodachi Life
38. Watch Dogs PS4
45. Super Mario 3D World
55. XB1 w/o Kinect
61. Wii U M&L Deluxe Bundle (slightly overpriced 3rd party seller)
On Amazon, rankings haven't changed too much in all honesty. MK8 dropped but is still selling pretty well (above PS4). Basically everything else dropped a bit. Surprisingly I'd say the Wii U bundle is basically at the same position. Then again, it was in the same position in May (#60) too, so maybe that doesn't mean too much haha (I don't think it was on the charts before May tho and I'm sure the product was sold on Amazon then). If the bundle continues to sell at some rate, maybe we'll be looking at like 80-90K as opposed to some dismal 50K or something since I'm sure the MK8 bundle is still outselling the M&L bundle like before?
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
Yeah there's no way they hit GameCube sales. That was what 22 million? They'll be lucky to pass 15 million. Best they can do is try to sell as many games to their base as they can minimize losses vs their initial projections.
Next go around they have to hit it out of the park. But I'm not sure how they do that. The type of games they have as exclusives just aren't going to get them huge hardware sales on the console front. And the portable market is likely to keep shrinking too.
Maybe they just need to give up chasing after core gamers and casuals and just focus on making a profit off their niche. Sell hardware cheap and at a profit from day one since they don't need too power for the graphic styles this use an sell their first party games at higher attach rates as MSRP like always.
Unifying the portable and console is so they can port every game to both would help as well as that's a lot more software sales since anyone with either platform can buy any game.
Its a spike, much like the GC had spikes at big releases. The console is not going the suddenly start selling 140k a month.
I'm not sure about that. I think the perception change is among journos and among those that actually watched some of Nintendo's e3 stuff. I think that's a pretty small number.
The rest of the world has no opinion to change because they just don't care; or, if they do have an opinion, they have not been exposed to anything that would change it because they don't read gaming sites or watch e3 stuff.
IMO, the more likely result is that the bump will tail off, just like with Pikmin and all the other releases.
rokkerkory
Member
yeah but they will move more s/w in the end to make up for it? perhaps $150 is too steep this year but $200?
Honestly price at this point is less of a factor than people think. It's the same reason why despite Xbox One finally removing Kinect and reacing price parity with PS4 did not allow it to come close to beating PS4. It helps, but it does not change the fundamental arithmetic behind the systems appeal (or lack thereof).
To me, and it's just a theory, the problem with Nintendo's Wii U tend to be a very high prioritizing of a specific type of "fun for all ages" gaming, which thematically leads to a higher frequency of titles aimed at everyone. People may love Mario, but they only have the stomach to play so many games set in the Mushroom Kingdom, for example.
While Nintendo is working hard to try to fill some of those thematic gaps in their lineup (which is distinct from a genre gap, which I'd say they're doing as well as can be expected in filling those gaps, considering third parties have basically abandoned them completely), they simply cannot cover all that is lost from third parties. And because Nintendo is not usually the type of companies who makes games like, say, Grand Theft Auto or Call of Duty, it's going to continue missing out on a host of games that cover all sorts of worlds, characters and themes that you simply won't see on a Nintendo console (or if you do see it, it's much rarer). They try to improve the situation with Bayonetta 2, Devil's Third and a few others, but as you can probably understand it's like plugging a hole in a gushing dam, there's simply too much lost by having no third party support.
And of course, yes, having a system dramatically less powerful than the other two also hurts porting and makes things more difficult for developers, which is Nintendo's own fault.
Amir0x said:
Nintendo have limited development resources. They'd prefer to target those resources towards expanding the audience. The theory is that once they've found a new audience, third parties can try to satisfy it leaving Nintendo to continue finding further new audiences. However with third parties failing to fill the gaps Nintendo have to find a balance between finding new audiences and serving the existing one. They chose to take the risk and prioritise finding new audiences by releasing the Wii U(which was also a step towards merging handheld/console development) and drop support for the Wii.
Having to satisfy the traditional audience, satisfy the new audiences and search for further new audiences turned out to be too much for them and they ended up failing in all three.
The traditional audience they have a good understanding of so they can do an ok job with that as we're now seeing. The expanded audience they had less understanding of and so it's collapsed for now. Maybe there's lessons to be learned and they can try to find ways to reaccess them in future(QOL might be the first attempt). Other new audiences they just have to experiment and take risks as usual(again, QOL might be the next attempt).
Aquamarine
Member
Ah my bad
It's a party that you didn't need an invite for, gamecrate was posting these numbers for 4 months until someone realized they were actually posting confidential stuff. But it would've been nice if the people who discovered it had the foresight to not share the links. I mean surely it would've been found out sooner or later but at least we would've snooped a bit more lol.
I've actually known about Gamecrate for a few months now. And I'm sure there have been other GAFfers like me.
It just takes one person without any tact...
theprodigy
Member
My apologies. I wrote "NSMBU" when I meant NSMBWii.
Nintendo closed out with some games for their more dedicated base (including a brand new Zelda), but they were equally if not more interested in devoting resources to chasing that next big blue ocean crossover success. And in their minds they needed a new platform to do it, since the possibilities of motion were exhausted and it was too late in the platform's life to successfully introduce a new peripheral like the balance board.
They ended up leaving money on the table as a result, but at the same time they were out of IPs they could really push anyway. As you note, Donkey Kong only racked up about 1/5th of NSMBWii's sales, so very quickly diminishing returns are reached. That Wii audience bites on a novel/new concept (a "new" 2D platformer) but then quickly tires of it.
Both games sold great by any standard, but clearly Nintendo thought the opportunity cost of working on Wii games was too great when they needed to launch a new platform in the near future.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
No, you are missing the point, completely.
My post isn't about who 'won' last gen, because it doesn't fucking matter.
This gen isn't going to be 8 years long with a straggler slowly limping towards a first place finish when the previous winner gave up more than 2 years ago.
Every gen - not just last gen, stop focussing on that - the market leading console has had significantly higher monthly sales than we are seeing for this gens market leader.
That means market contraction.
Every gen has 'cross gen' titles for the first year, theres nothing special there.
I know THPS isnt a big name now, but when it was it was selling on multiple generations of hardware.
This is a good point. On the flip side though, I don't see COD ending on the PS3/360 anytime soon (the next 2-3 years). Still too much money to be made.
GOODNESS.
Knew the Wii sold like hot cakes but I never really realized how well the software sold (outside of Wii sports).
Is Wii to Wii U the biggest drop ever for a system's successor? Crazy.
Looking at what they did during the n64 and gamecube eras it was no shock that they would drop the ball to be honest.
They have no idea what they are doing.
ethomaz
Banned
I think people who posted or known about the site is a silly discussion... the website was public and anybody could access it and I'm sure the owner want more people viewing the site when posted the news... he even shared on twitter.
So NPD has the right to ask to the site to stop to post NPD confidential data (or even fee them for that) but I don't blame anybody that accessed the site or even shared in any place.
Internet is public after all.
It is a public site... anybody can access and share it... who shared it didn't make anything wrong.Ah my bad
It's a party that you didn't need an invite for, gamecrate was posting these numbers for 4 months until someone realized they were actually posting confidential stuff. But it would've been nice if the people who discovered it had the foresight to not share the links. I mean surely it would've been found out sooner or later but at least we would've snooped a bit more lol.
The site was wrong for share confidential data.
CosmicQueso
Member
Sorry, but struggling to understand the validity of the comparison. Just looking at max vs max in summer HW demand and ignoring the LTD trend demand and increasing consumer spend is a strange way to look at it.
Using your logic and applying it to Nov-Dec sales, one would conclude that demand had increased by a factor of 2-3, and that it was the dawn of a new golden age of console sales.
The real problem is dev cost, and a reduction in the number of games being released. The PEGI release count data released correlates almost perfectly to the decline in packaged goods consumer spend. Unfortunately, that decline in release count trend will only continue, and it's only a matter of time, perhaps, until people stop buying the hardware because of the limited selection of new SW (one could argue that this may be already happening).
Ah my bad
This witch hunt stuff is not attractive. And, as others have stated, you weren't snooping anything before the post, so you wouldn't have snooped any more. Leave the guy alone.
The point is that the contraction is happening for everybody, not just the manufacturer that massively dropped the ball this gen
Neuromancer
Member
We already know about Penello.no way man. I am occasionally told some hard numbers, but nothing on the scale of what was being posted at that site. And I would not give them out after being told in confidence, unless I felt the person telling me in confidence was trying to use me in some sense or doing something wrong in what he was saying.
Shit, there's still a story I could tell NeoGAF (maybe at the end of this generation when it won't effect anything) about a phone call I got, and I still go back and forth in my head whether to share it because it was in confidence, even though it was seriously fucked up and proved neoGAF was being intentionally lied to by certain posters. But I have a problem sharing things people tell me in confidence... washed out ethical code or some shit. Yes bros, I do have an ethical code
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Does anyone have any numbers on GC's NPD #s the month Double Dash came out? Would that be relevant to seeing if MK8 did about-as-good or less-than-good for bumping Wii U #s?
haha, everyone knows about Penello now. But there is some fascinating details behind that whole story, it'll be told one day.
SwiftDeath
Member
theprodigy
Member
November 2003-Gamecube did 754k (165k in September 2003, 254k in October 2003)
of course this is holiday season, but as you can see Wii U isn't hitting these numbers anytime soon
Father_Brain
Banned
Aha, let's bash everybody really tenaciously, perhaps entire NeoGAF lies like Obama.
Naw, wasn't him.
Damn, that's a hard code to crack! Any hints?
lol
Relaxed Muscle
Member
MK gain a lot of sales during the DS and Wii era. Is now a way more popular IP than in the GC era.
So is not really a fair comparisson.
I don't wanna look like those claiming the WiiU is on a healthy trajectory, but I think the stock situation makes it hard to tell what demand is for the Vita. I mean just read what Abdiel said:
Aquamarine
Member
And Double Dash sold:
November 2003 - 528K
December 2003 - 730K (1258K LTD)
January 2004 - 106K (1364K LTD)
Weren't the low Vita sales due to shortages?
if you look at the way Aquamarine wrote Never, and then add a certain number to it and divide by two, you'll get the appropriate number of units sold LTD for Super Mario 3D Land.
gotta know the secret GAF codes
CosmicQueso
Member
I would say the data suggests that the core Sony/MS total consumer demand has not contracted. More specifically, that the initial HW supply rollout did a lot to pull demand forward. In previous cycles, the Q2-Q3 period of the 1st year following launch were buoyed by pent up demand. In this case, Nov-Dec had so much supply that we saw launches 2-3x historical highs. Point being, this is probably the most normal HW demand curve we've ever seen, one that isn't as impacted by supply as previous cycles. Total LTD in the US, the Sony/MS core HW sales have surpassed all previous time aligned generations. At the very least, it's too early to tell. What's causing problems are the rising development costs of 1080p/60, etc etc, not a decline in consumer demand.
SW spend across both physical and digital is also quite healthy on Sony and MS consoles.
When you look at the stock prices of some of the biggest 3rd party publishers, you're definitely not seeing impending doom from the investment community.
Mysterious
Banned
These are NA numbers right?
You can't sell massive numbers with only the core at your side, unfortunately. I don't see any major software spend from most pubs that will pull in anyone outside that 16-30yo male, which will dictate the appeal of said products. 100 million plus happens when the mainstream consumers are interested in your product and even when the prices of these boxes come down there will be very little to appeal to the mainstream beyond the young male looking to shoot and stab.
I'll bet you my hat that over the course of this generation, nobody will reach the total of the third place console of the previous generation
As Opiate has pointed out previously this would be a sign of a consolidating market where the big players survive and the smaller players are the ones that struggle. We've already seen a collapse in mid tier development last gen. Activision/Ubisoft/EA should be ok this gen, perhaps modest declines(in the big franchises anyway). The other publishers are where the pain is likely to be felt.
Aquamarine
Member
Yes.
If we use the leaked numbers from the no-longer-online Gamecrate NPD articles:
Mario Kart NPD Sales History:
Mario Kart 64 (February 1997) - 0.35 million
Mario Kart 64 (March 1997) - 0.35 million (0.7 million LTD)
Mario Kart: Super Circuit (August 2001) - 107K
Mario Kart: Super Circuit (September 2001) - 183K (291K LTD)
Mario Kart: Double Dash (November 2003) - 528K
Mario Kart: Double Dash (December 2003) - 730K (1.26 million LTD)
Mario Kart DS (November 2005) - 222K
Mario Kart DS (December 2005) - 431K (653K LTD)
Mario Kart Wii (April 2008) - 1.1 million
Mario Kart Wii (May 2008) - 787K (1.9 million LTD)
Mario Kart 7 (December 2011) - 1.2 million
Mario Kart 7 (January 2012) - 149K (1.34 million)
Mario Kart 8 (May 2014) - 353K
Mario Kart 8 (June 2014) - 401K (754K LTD)