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[CosmicQueso]

As Opiate has pointed out previously this would be a sign of a consolidating market where the big players survive and the smaller players are the ones that struggle. We've already seen a collapse in mid tier development last gen. Activision/Ubisoft/EA should be ok this gen, perhaps modest declines(in the big franchises anyway). The other publishers are where the pain is likely to be felt.

Already being felt... We lost about a quarter of the publishers between 2009 and 2013, and around 30% of the release count.

Yep, the lack of releases, the huge reduction in risk taking, and the rising dev costs could prevent these consoles hitting the mass market.

But its not because of some reduction in consumer demand.

demand is there, its been great. But when costs have doubled in some cases to produce market acceptable content? That's when things get ugly.

Content is still king, and people buy boxes for content. Question is will enough be there? Not sure the answer to that is yes.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

As Opiate has pointed out previously this would be a sign of a consolidating market where the big players survive and the smaller players are the ones that struggle. We've already seen a collapse in mid tier development last gen. Activision/Ubisoft/EA should be ok this gen, perhaps modest declines(in the big franchises anyway). The other publishers are where the pain is likely to be felt.

Mid tier is still alive and it's call indies games which covers a lot .
People forget that mid tier is going change from gen to gen , for eg good luck selling a short side scrolling 2D game for $50 like 15 years ago .
The Mid tier market has change good amount last 10 yeas and that is not taking to account things like F2P games.

 

[Boombloxer]

No, you are missing the point, completely.
My post isn't about who 'won' last gen, because it doesn't fucking matter.
This gen isn't going to be 8 years long with a straggler slowly limping towards a first place finish when the previous winner gave up more than 2 years ago.

Every gen - not just last gen, stop focussing on that - the market leading console has had significantly higher monthly sales than we are seeing for this gens market leader.

That means market contraction.



Every gen has 'cross gen' titles for the first year, theres nothing special there.

I know THPS isnt a big name now, but when it was it was selling on multiple generations of hardware.

Only if you ignore the start, because that nullifies your point. We'll have a better idea after a full year.

I don't actually expect that at all from the PS360 crowd. Wii/portables are a different story.

 

[Game Guru]

This generation is fundamentally different because the big games have remained cross-gen. Even big next gen titles like Destiny and Titanfall still have last gen releases. Forza Horizon is also cross-gen so even the first party studios are getting in on the action of unwillingness to abandon last gen.

From the perspective of the PS360 owner, that's great news because it sucks when your console gets abandoned by devs. From the perspective of people on this forum counting launch-aligned numbers, it obviously demonstrates a slower adoption of next gen consoles and makes people think the industry is in danger.

Watch how many consoles sell once CoD can no longer be purchased on last gen.

I don't think this is true. The sales numbers we have for crossgen games show that the vast majority of sales are from owners of PS4 and XB1. The majority who buy games at launch have already moved on. Whereas there is a minority who buy new games at launch but haven't gotten a next-gen system. Note the caveats... I believe a significant portion of the actual console audience actually end up buying their games used or later for cheap most of the time. It is these guys who end up buying a console but rarely show up in regards to new game sales at launch. Certainly, it would explain why the Pre-180 XB1 had such a harsh backlash when most of the time the console audience shrugs off attempts to screw them over. It was as if the Pre-180 XB1 crossed a line that console gamers would never accept regardless of how much they loved consoles. Nintendo is likely also on the wrong foot with them given they never dropped the price of their games and rarely do their games sell for cheap on the used market. This leaves Sony being the only ones who have the decent mindshare for this market.

A potential issue though one that might not be obvious is if this audience who buys games cheap or used are shifting more towards the mobile and PC markets because of F2P games and Indie Bundles. Certainly the rise of F2P and Indies via bundles and Minecraft cannot be discounted.

 

[Exploratory]

if you look at the way Aquamarine wrote Never, and then add a certain number to it and divide by two, you'll get the appropriate number of units sold LTD for Super Mario 3D Land.

gotta know the secret GAF codes

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42.

 

[Game Guru]

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42.

Do I need a secret decoder ring for this?

"Be... sure... to... drink... your... Ovaltine?" Wait, that isn't right.

 

[StevieP]

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42.

The answer is 42

 

[bemusedchunk]

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

The answer is 42

It is 16

#believe

 

[Petrae]

I think people who posted or known about the site is a silly discussion... the website was public and anybody could access it and I'm sure the owner want more people viewing the site when posted the news... he even shared on twitter.

So NPD has the right to ask to the site to stop to post NPD confidential data (or even fee them for that) but I don't blame anybody that accessed the site or even shared in any place.

Internet is public after all.


It is a public site... anybody can access and share it... who shared it didn't make anything wrong.

The site was wrong for share confidential data.

Pretty much. There's leaking data and then there's flat-out copy & pasting it for everyone to see. The latter crossed the line by a few hundred miles.

NPD isn't going to completely freak if those with the data give subtle hints and clues to approximate a number; it never officially reveals the data while satisfying the curiosity of the data-fascinated and armchair analysts, as I think many of us here are. Once you start directly quoting numbers, unless the numbers had already been made available through someone else, that sounds an alarm. And then, of course, when NPD found out about their actual reports being out in the wild? Yowza.

All that said, once the data is out there, it's out there. It's fair game for anyone who sees it, and thanks to the idea that nothing on the Internet is ever REALLY deleted, the report images are still pretty easy to find. That's still the person's fault who posted the images.

I used to get snapshot data for a time from a retailer as part of a project that I was working on. I quickly learned what I could share and what I could not. That's why I really appreciate it when folks like Aquamarine, Creamsugar, and others do the same, as deftly and indirectly as they can while still giving us a reasonable chance at getting close to the raw number.

What happened at Gamecrate is unfortunate. While it's great that so many got to see the actual data and that we have reference points for LTD, YTD, etc... it's a reminder that there's a certain measure of responsibility that comes with having access to the data.

 

[mo60]

Yeah there's no way they hit GameCube sales. That was what 22 million? They'll be lucky to pass 15 million. Best they can do is try to sell as many games to their base as they can minimize losses vs their initial projections.

Next go around they have to hit it out of the park. But I'm not sure how they do that. The type of games they have as exclusives just aren't going to get them huge hardware sales on the console front. And the portable market is likely to keep shrinking too.

Maybe they just need to give up chasing after core gamers and casuals and just focus on making a profit off their niche. Sell hardware cheap and at a profit from day one since they don't need too power for the graphic styles this use an sell their first party games at higher attach rates as MSRP like always.

Unifying the portable and console is so they can port every game to both would help as well as that's a lot more software sales since anyone with either platform can buy any game.

I think they should not care about the core gamers at all for their next console when they are designing it. It's one of the reasons to why the WiiU is kinda in the situation it is in now.The casuals were ignored to an extent when the WiiU launched. At least they are focusing on their core base and the casuals to an extent now.They just need to get an effective strategy to get some or most of the casuals back when they are designing their next console and to focus on this audience when there next gen console launches. They can branch out from there later in that console's gen, but they can not ignore the casuals while doing this.

 

[Y2Kev]

I would like to make a prediction after having played the Destiny alpha and beta

10-12 million shipped WW this year

game will be massive

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Yep, the lack of releases, the huge reduction in risk taking, and the rising dev costs could prevent these consoles hitting the mass market.

But its not because of some reduction in consumer demand.

We're getting into chicken and egg territory here really; is a reduced portfolio of titles going to lead to less mass market appeal in spite of 'natural demand' for consoles, or is a reduced portfolio of titles a response to already lost demand.

The answer, ultimately, is it doesn't matter. Both hypotheses lead to a reduced market.

Only if you ignore the start, because that nullifies your point. We'll have a better idea after a full year.

I don't actually expect that at all from the PS360 crowd. Wii/portables are a different story.

I agree we don't have 'real' baselines for either the PS4 or the Xbone yet, but the current trends aren't pretty.

I also don't think that "the PS360 crowd" is as big as people who think everythings fine believes it is, or that the loss of "the wii/portables crowd" (which includes the often overlooked PS2 licenced games and singstar/buzz/eyetoy crowd) is a good thing for anyone with interest in gaming.

 

[Giant Panda]

It looks like both Sony and Microsoft will need some price cuts by this time next year if they want to maintain decent hardware sales. Hopefully 20nm should be ready by then.

 

[SDCowboy]

It looks like both Sony and Microsoft will need some price cuts by this time next year if they want to maintain decent hardware sales. Hopefully 20nm should be ready by then.

Huh? Why does it look like Sony will need one then? Their sales are fantastic.

 

[googleplex]

I would like to make a prediction after having played the Destiny alpha and beta

10-12 million shipped WW this year

game will be massive

Whats your predictions on platform percentage split?

 

[Salex_]

It looks like both Sony and Microsoft will need some price cuts by this time next year if they want to maintain decent hardware sales. Hopefully 20nm should be ready by then.

How did you reach that conclusion?

360's second June (can't find the first June numbers) : 198.4k
Xbox One first June: 197k

PS3 first June: 98.5k
PS4 first June: 269k

There was no new retail software for PS4/X1 in June as well. Everything crammed into the holiday 2014/early 2014 lineup.

 

[rokkerkory]

I would like to make a prediction after having played the Destiny alpha and beta

10-12 million shipped WW this year

game will be massive

9-10m shipped here

 

[theprodigy]

How much Xbox One shipments are we expecting anyway, something tells me their earlier channel stuffing will lead to minimal shipments for the quarter.

(not really NPD related technically, but still)

 

[CoG]

I would like to make a prediction after having played the Destiny alpha and beta

10-12 million shipped WW this year

game will be massive

Aggressive but after playing the beta -- GOTY. It does something new (FPS + MMORPG + consoles). People are going to be all over this game.

Every gen something new comes along. Last gen it was CoD:MW. This gen it's Destiny.

/hyperbole

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Activision wins again

 

[Massa]

Activision wins again

http://cdn.cnwimg.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/bobby-kotick.jpg[IMG][/QUOTE]

Deservedly so. They went to a great developer and opened their wallets to make the game happen, while the likes of EA keep churning out the same game every year.

 

[prag16]

You can't sell massive numbers with only the core at your side, unfortunately. I don't see any major software spend from most pubs that will pull in anyone outside that 16-30yo male, which will dictate the appeal of said products. 100 million plus happens when the mainstream consumers are interested in your product and even when the prices of these boxes come down there will be very little to appeal to the mainstream beyond the young male looking to shoot and stab.

I'll bet you my hat that over the course of this generation, nobody will reach the total of the third place console of the previous generation

We had a prediction thread several months ago and I think I went with 80-50-20 million for the big three. Now I think all three could struggle to reach those respective totals. Will be interesting. Any 100+ juggernaut does seem far less likely this time.

 

[John_RiticelloEA]

man, EA UFC is doing very well.

Good job EA, lets hope the sequel improves upon the good foundation.

 

[John_RiticelloEA]

It looks like both Sony and Microsoft will need some price cuts by this time next year if they want to maintain decent hardware sales. Hopefully 20nm should be ready by then.

I have a hard time seeing that.

MAYBE $50 for each system, but I can't see a $100 price drop after a year...

 

[Jimmyfenix]

man, EA UFC is doing very well.

Good job EA, lets hope the sequel improves upon the good foundation.

Okay John

 

[ethomaz]

How much Xbox One shipments are we expecting anyway, something tells me their earlier channel stuffing will lead to minimal shipments for the quarter.

(not really NPD related technically, but still)

I expect less than 800k for the quarter... 6 million lifetime max.

 

[kswiston]

We had a prediction thread several months ago and I think I went with 80-50-20 million for the big three. Now I think all three could struggle to reach those respective totals. Will be interesting. Any 100+ juggernaut does seem far less likely this time.

Why do you think the PS4 will struggle to 80M? PS3 will have cleared that number with 10M or so to spare when it stops selling. Other than in Japan, PS4 is doing much better than the PS3 was at this point in its life.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

You can't sell massive numbers with only the core at your side, unfortunately. I don't see any major software spend from most pubs that will pull in anyone outside that 16-30yo male, which will dictate the appeal of said products. 100 million plus happens when the mainstream consumers are interested in your product and even when the prices of these boxes come down there will be very little to appeal to the mainstream beyond the young male looking to shoot and stab.

I'll bet you my hat that over the course of this generation, nobody will reach the total of the third place console of the previous generation

Depends on what you mean by "massive numbers." Even during the Blue Ocean years of early-mid seventh gen an absolute majority of consoles and games were being purchased by core gamers. It was just mitigated by the fact that for the first time since the 16-bit era we had two evenly-matched consoles. The core is more than enough to bring a console to 100 million+ sales worldwide provided that two major console players don't split the demographic, like 360 vs PS3. Suffice to say that that isn't going to happen this gen.

 

[ethomaz]

Why do you think the PS4 will struggle to 80M? PS3 will have cleared that number with 10M or so to spare when it stops selling. Other than in Japan, PS4 is doing much better than the PS3 was at this point in its life.

PS4 is doing still better than any other console ever released.

People forget even after 8 months it still is the fastest seller console ever created... Wii possible will pass it but I don't think it will happen this year.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

I also don't think that "the PS360 crowd" is as big as people who think everythings fine believes it is, or that the loss of "the wii/portables crowd" (which includes the often overlooked PS2 licenced games and singstar/buzz/eyetoy crowd) is a good thing for anyone with interest in gaming.

In terms of sales the PS360 crowd was bigger than the PS2. I don't know how big exactly you think we think it is.

 

[Percy]

PS4 is doing still better than any other console ever released.

Is this true?

It sounds like it wouldn't be... but...

 

[Neuromancer]

haha, everyone knows about Penello now. But there is some fascinating details behind that whole story, it'll be told one day.

Hmm. Ok, promise not to forget though.

Also some day I'd like to hear the reason why bish locked himself in a bunker that one time.

 

[mo60]

Why do you think the PS4 will struggle to 80M? PS3 will have cleared that number with 10M or so to spare when it stops selling. Other than in Japan, PS4 is doing much better than the PS3 was at this point in its life.

Market shrinkage in the US,Europe(probably) and Japan.The market may shrink in other countries.

 

[mo60]

PS4 is doing still better than any other console ever released.

People forget even after 8 months it still is the fastest seller console ever created... Wii possible will pass it but I don't think it will happen this year.

Isn't the Wii beating it right now worldwide?The Wii will beat the PS4 eventually if it's not beating it currently in certain countries.

 

[cloudyy]

Which is a wonder why they didn't do the same for Wii, a successful console

it will always blow my mind what Nintendo was thinking at the end of Wii's life. Hell, I didn't like the system much, but the thing was a damned blowout success. You'd think they'd want to keep giving owners a reason to support it. I wish I could have better understood what Nintendo's logic was here in nearly completely abandoning the platform.

At least for Vita, I can say "well let's be honest it's a smart business decision", and I'd say the same about Wii U too if they called it quits here. But I don't get what happened with Wii.

I'd say that once the wii was hacked (first hack was around december of 2007) and Nintendo realized that they couldn't do anything at one point, they probably decided to stop any new Wii game development.

 

[mo60]

In terms of sales the PS360 crowd was bigger than the PS2. I don't know how big exactly you think we think it is.

Now one knows the actual size of the PS3/360 crowd because PS3's and 360's were probably bought more than once by some people. The actual size of the PS3/360 audience may be around 140-150 million(maybe slightly more).

 

[Salex_]

Is this true?

It sounds like it wouldn't be... but...

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I have a hard time seeing that.

MAYBE $50 for each system, but I can't see a $100 price drop after a year...

A price drop by $100 next year would be the norm plus Sony has already gone on the record saying PS4 was made with aggressive pricing in mind .

Market shrinkage in the US,Europe(probably) and Japan.The market may shrink in other countries.

Japan yes but i don't see any signs in US or EU that one consoles can get to 100 million .
Remember last gen 10 million sales from the HD twins only came from Japan out of 160 million .

 

[mo60]

A price drop by $100 next year would be the norm plus Sony has already gone on the record saying PS4 was made with aggressive pricing in mind .



Japan yes but i don't see any signs in US or EU that one consoles can get to 100 million .
Remember last gen 10 million sales from HD twins only came from Japan out of 160 million .

I remember I read something from the ndp that said that the core gaming market shrunk from 37.5 million people to 34.0 million in like a year in the last year or so in the US.So the gaming market may actually be slowly shrinking in the US

 

[Percy]

Oh... okay then...

 

[Amir0x]

I'd say that once the wii was hacked (first hack was around december of 2007) and Nintendo realized that they couldn't do anything at one point, they probably decided to stop any new Wii game development.

I think it's reaaally suspect to try to blame the hacking scene for what happened.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

I think it's reaaally suspect to try to blame the hacking scene for what happened.

Yeah that's silly. Didn't step them from making DS games.

 

[ethomaz]

Isn't the Wii beating it right now worldwide?The Wii will beat the PS4 eventually if it's not beating it currently in certain countries.

Wii is catching right now but it is still behind PS4...

Wii shipped 9.26m at end of June 2007... even if PS4 only sold to costumers 8.5m at the same period the shipment will be more probable over 9.5m for the same period.

Next quarter I think Destiny will hold the PS4 ahead... and the furst real chance to Wii surpass PS4 will be holidays.

Edit - That is because PS4 is doing bad in Japan... if it put some decent numbers there the Wii could have more trouble to catch it.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Hopefully creamsugar puts up a Sonic Lost World Wii U hint at least, since in the April NPD he showed it was above 100k. A new milestone at least would be nice.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

November 2003-Gamecube did 754k (165k in September 2003, 254k in October 2003)

of course this is holiday season, but as you can see Wii U isn't hitting these numbers anytime soon

Cool, thnx. That helps to answer that question.

MK gain a lot of sales during the DS and Wii era. Is now a way more popular IP than in the GC era.

So is not really a fair comparisson.

Yeah, that's a good point. But, even tho it is more popular in a sense, Wii U doesn't have the bulk of Wii's audience so I thought maybe it was fair to bring it up in a way.

And Double Dash sold:

November 2003 - 528K
December 2003 - 730K (1258K LTD)
January 2004 - 106K (1364K LTD)

Thnx Aqua; cool avatar btw that game's gonna be nice.

I think it's reaaally suspect to try to blame the hacking scene for what happened.

Agreed; Nintendo just seemed to stop caring about the system. Tho it falls in line w/ the length of a normal console cycle (when they ended serious 1st party support), and they were working on the Wii U and 3DS around that time too, so I guess they had their hands full really.

 

[Drakeon]

Hopefully creamsugar puts up a Sonic Lost World Wii U hint at least, since in the April NPD he showed it was above 100k. A new milestone at least would be nice.

Why are we wishing for an awful game to do well?

 

[StevieP]

This generation isn't going to be 8 years lol. Never mind how unhealthy that was in the first place. Ps4 isn't going to hit 100 million for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the massive contraction of software output for that market and the huge mitigation in risk.

 

[prag16]

Why do you think the PS4 will struggle to 80M? PS3 will have cleared that number with 10M or so to spare when it stops selling. Other than in Japan, PS4 is doing much better than the PS3 was at this point in its life.

For now I'm chalking that up to large pent up launch demand after by far the longest generation so far.

I also wouldn't be so sure PS3 will clear 90 million. The drop off has been immense. We sure as hell will not see anything close to a PS1/PS2 tail.

 

[Graphics Horse]

A price drop by $100 next year would be the norm plus Sony has already gone on the record saying PS4 was made with aggressive pricing in mind .

I think by the end of the year you'll see a 1TB Xbone (as foretold by ntkrnl) which would be a good time to do a soft price drop on existing models.