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[ethomaz]

This generation isn't going to be 8 years lol. Never mind how unhealthy that was in the first place. Ps4 isn't going to hit 100 million for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the massive contraction of software output for that market and the huge mitigation in risk.

PS3 don't have 8 years in the market and reached 80 million with less 7 years.

So PS4 can reach with 5 years or even sooner at this pace.

Remember PS4 will make 1 year with sales around 13 million.

 

[mo60]

Wii is catching right now but it is still behind PS4...

Wii shipped 9.26m at end of June 2007... even if PS4 only sold to costumers 8.5m at the same period the shipment will be more probable over 9.5m for the same period.

Next quarter I think Destiny will hold the PS4 ahead... and the furst real chance to Wii surpass PS4 will be holidays.

Edit - That is because PS4 is doing bad in Japan... if it put some decent numbers there the Wii could have more trouble to catch it.

The wii started to sell really amazing in 2007. It sold like crazy in 2008 and 2009. I think it will take a very long time for the ps4 to beat the Wii once the Wii passes it. The PS4 may never beat the Wii at the end of the gen even if we include the Wii's abrupt decline because of market decline in some of the markets PS consoles usually crush one or more of their competitors in.

 

[ethomaz]

The wii started to sell really amazing in 2007. It sold like crazy in 2008 and 2009. I think it will take a very long time for the ps4 to beat the Wii once the Wii passes it. The PS4 may never beat the Wii at the end of the gen even if we include the Wii's abrupt decline because of market decline in some of the markets PS consoles usually crush one or more of their competitors in.

I agree. If PS4 beat Wii in any time will be after the next generation but I do think PS4 will do over 80 million.

Wii will definitely pass PS4 until early 2015.

 

[mo60]

I agree. If PS4 beat Wii in any time will be after the next generation but I do think PS4 will do over 80 million.

I think the PS4 may face a PS3 like decline after the next gen starts which will probably prevent it from selling anywere near 100 million after the gen is over unless the PS5 ends up being terrible.

 

[prag16]

PS3 don't have 8 years in the market and reached 80 million with less 7 years.

So PS4 can reach with 5 years or even sooner at this pace.

Remember PS4 will make 1 year with sales around 13 million.

Bolded the operative phrase. The pace isn't likely to be maintained, and looks pretty front-loaded. Once the streams cross with the Wii later this year (in terms of launch aligned LTD), I don't expect them to ever cross again, and that goes for both U.S. And worldwide. . I could end up being wrong, but I just don't expect it.

 

[ethomaz]

I think the PS4 may face a PS3 like decline after the next gen starts unless the PS5 ends up being terrible.

Well PS3 was at 80 million in November 4... I believe it is around 84-85m today... that means it increased the shipment in 5 million since PS4 launch.

It not that bad decline... US seems bad because it is a place that move faster to new systems... PS3 is still selling in EU and RotW.

Edit - Fixed

 

[Amir0x]

Well PS4 was at 80 million in November 4... I believe it is around 84-85m today... that means it increased the shipment in 5 million since PS4 launch.

It not that bad decline... US seems bad because it is a place that move faster to new systems... PS3 is still selling in EU and RotW.

Damn PS4 is a monster, 85 million already

 

[ethomaz]

Damn PS4 is a monster, 85 million already

lol dammit

 

[prag16]

Well PS3 was at 80 million in November 4... I believe it is around 84-85m today... that means it increased the shipment in 5 million since PS4 launch.

It not that bad decline... US seems bad because it is a place that move faster to new systems... PS3 is still selling in EU and RotW.

Edit - Fixed

Where did you get 84-85 from? That sounds too high by at least a couple million. I don't have numbers handy but I can't believe PS3 could have shifted 5 million units since PS4 launch.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

This generation isn't going to be 8 years lol. Never mind how unhealthy that was in the first place. Ps4 isn't going to hit 100 million for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the massive contraction of software output for that market and the huge mitigation in risk.

That really depends on price drop IMO , the faster the consoles drop the better chance it has.

 

[ethomaz]

Where did you get 84-85 from? That sounds too high by at least a couple million. I don't have numbers handy but I can't believe PS3 could have shifted 5 million units since PS4 launch.

360 reached 80 million in October... 84 million in April... and it will be close to 85m right now.

PS3 is selling on par or better than 360.

Both consoles shipped ~5 million units since PS4/XB1 launch.

More evidence? Sony shipped 7.8 million units in December quarter last year... PS4 sold 4.2 million and had heavily supply issues... so max 4.5m shipped... PS3 shipped ~3 million units.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Why do you think the PS4 will struggle to 80M? PS3 will have cleared that number with 10M or so to spare when it stops selling. Other than in Japan, PS4 is doing much better than the PS3 was at this point in its life.

This is not going to be an 8 year generation.

In terms of sales the PS360 crowd was bigger than the PS2. I don't know how big exactly you think we think it is.

But not bigger than the Ps2+Xbox+GC.
When people say "PS360 crowd" they're just weasel wording 'hardcore gamers' to dismiss the wiis sales and the importance to the market thereof.

Wii is catching right now but it is still behind PS4...

Is there any evidence that the PS4 is heavily supply constrained?

Because there is plenty of evidence for Wii shortages for a significant period after its launch.

 

[Game Guru]

While the Wii did sort of falter in the end of its life in terms of sales, didn't that particular system actually sell well for five years? Wasn't it like 2010 where the Wii started faltering in sales? I know there is a chart comparing Wii sales to 360 and PS3 sales and it shows the Wii faltering early compared to those two, but the Wii's sales might actually have been in line with prior generations. It might be because of the abnormal length of the generation of 7 to 8 years compared to 5 or 6 years, the Wii looks like it cratered early when in fact it cratered when it, as the victor console, should have except that no one released a new console for 2 years afterwards.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

While the Wii did sort of falter in the end of its life in terms of sales, didn't that particular system actually sell well for five years? Wasn't it like 2010 where the Wii started faltering in sales? I know there is a chart comparing Wii sales to 360 and PS3 sales and it shows the Wii faltering early, but the the Wii's sales might actually have been in line with other generations, but because of the abnormal length of the generation of 7 to 8 years compared to 5 or 6 years, the Wii looks like it cratered early.

Yep that was the problem with the Wii it cratered way to fast .
I mean people were thinking Wii was the system that was going to sell more than PS2 but end up selling 50 million less.
The lead system normally sell some more even after the next one comes out that did not happen with Wii it was dying 2 year before .

 

[ethomaz]

Is there any evidence that the PS4 is heavily supply constrained?

Because there is plenty of evidence for Wii shortages for a significant period after its launch.

PS4 was heavily supply constrained until February... and some supply constrained (Europe mostly) until April but after that no issue.

 

[AniHawk]

While the Wii did sort of falter in the end of its life in terms of sales, didn't that particular system actually sell well for five years? Wasn't it like 2010 where the Wii started faltering in sales? I know there is a chart comparing Wii sales to 360 and PS3 sales and it shows the Wii faltering early compared to those two, but the Wii's sales might actually have been in line with prior generations. It might be because of the abnormal length of the generation of 7 to 8 years compared to 5 or 6 years, the Wii looks like it cratered early when in fact it cratered when it, as the victor console, should have except that no one released a new console for 2 years afterwards.

it was poor management from nintendo. the wii mini should have happened in 2010 alongside super mario galaxy 2 or something. the 3ds and its games should have come out in late 2010, and the wii u should have been a 2011 system when everything else was still scheduled for late 2013. i'm not sure how their planning was set, but it looked like they were doing it almost on a yearly basis versus doing it five years at a time.

 

[Giant Panda]

How did you reach that conclusion?

360's second June (can't find the first June numbers) : 198.4k
Xbox One first June: 197k

PS3 first June: 98.5k
PS4 first June: 269k

There was no new retail software for PS4/X1 in June as well. Everything crammed into the holiday 2014/early 2014 lineup.

Huh? Why does it look like Sony will need one then? Their sales are fantastic.

I would say neither PS4 or X1 are having great hardware sales, and this problem is likely to return next summer as most summers have weak lineups. The X1 just got a lower-priced SKU in its strongest territory and still couldn't break 200k. For the PS4 270k isn't bad but if that's the best this generation's sales leader can do than the console market is really going to contract.

 

[serversurfer]

Competition is good for gamers. A lot of the more niche first-party games/moneyhatted games won't exist in your scenario. Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo have all been arrogant at times and screwed up their platforms. If you have a virtual monopoly you'd probably see that again from any company in charge.

Depends on who ends up on top. Sony saw virtually no competition in Gen5 and Gen6, and yet I'd argue those were easily the best 10 years in console history in terms of software, particularly in terms of variety — the very same "niche/moneyhatted" games you describe. Despite completely dominating the market, Sony took the initiative in publishing those niche games that otherwise may have never seen the light of day due to the startup costs, even though the core design philosophy of the PS1 itself was lowering the cost barriers for developers through optical discs. Sony took the money they were raking in and used it to fund small developers that went otherwise ignored by the likes of EA. You could say the corporate philosophy was, "Share the wealth, and we all get richer."

Of course, you also have companies with different philosophies, like MS. Once they were comfortable with their position in the marketplace with the XB360, they all but abandoned core game development, apart from the money-printers, Halo, Forza, and Gears. They attracted people to the brand by paying lip service to small developers, but once MS had the userbase, they didn't need to waste time with the small-potatoes devs, and could instead invest that money in to DRM research and biometric advertising survey cameras. Their corporate philosophy might be described as, "Hoard the wealth, and we get richer."

Different companies, different philosophies, different behavior. While it may be safe to assume that a given company will act as you describe once they've achieved market dominance, you can't then assume that all companies will act in the same fashion. Sony and MS are actually perfect of examples of how two different companies will leverage their dominance in different ways, given the opportunity. Institutions like these don't really change their basic behavior and strategies. There's a reason the very word institution has come to mean something which doesn't change. "Corporate DNA" would be the buzzwordy way of describing it, I suppose.

You mention Arrogant Sony, but their biggest mistake was in designing an $800 console, which was certainly the most badass console around, but it was still a hefty investment. So they sold me my 20GB on launch day for $500, effectively giving me their uber gaming box, and still leaving me $300 to spend on software. So I got $800 worth of hardware, and five free games of my choosing. Maybe as many as a dozen free games, if I spent my pennies wisely. So yeah, fuck you very much, Arrogant Sony. /facepalm

Hardware pricing does bring up another advantage of market dominance that I forgot to mention though; less money wasted on hardware, meaning more money spent on software instead. Let's look at a "competitive" scenario, where you have two equally viable platforms — not a bad choice to be made either way. You have a situation where it's a coin toss which platform a given user ends up on, and the more appealing both systems are, the more consumers who will feel compelled to buy both systems.

Let's look at our pool of 100M gamers again. We'll say 5M are Team Green, and will never buy anything but MS, and we have another 5M on Team Blue. With equally viable platforms, you might have 70M more who flip their coin, so you have 40M of each console sold. Then the remaining 20M gamers get both platforms, so they don't miss anything important. So we have 120M pieces of hardware sold, in to a market of only 100M customers. Sounds like a pretty healthy market, right?

Well, let's compare it to dominance. Team Green dutifully buy their 5M XBoxen, and Team Blue their 5M PlayStations. Now we have another 85M who decide PlayStation is the obvious choice, given the price and capabilities of the hardware, and Sony's excellent track record getting games made, especially when they're dominant. The remaining 5M buy both platforms, so they don't miss anything important. So now we have 105M units sold to our 100M gamers, a 13% contraction in the hardware market. Panic ensues.

Except that's a good thing. The extra 15M units weren't really doing anyone any good. We still have 100M gamers buying games either way. Even the platform holder doesn't benefit, as those units are being sold at cost, or worse. The primary effect of those 15M units is to pull an additional $4.5B (yes, billion) out of the pockets of gamers. That's $4,500,000,000 that could've been spent on games, but instead it was pissed away on hardware because competition. Tell Bobby Kotick you know how to get people to spend an additional half-billion a year on games and see if he perks up at all.

 

[ethomaz]

I would say neither PS4 or X1 are having great hardware sales, and this problem is likely to return next summer as most summers have weak lineups. The X1 just got a lower-priced SKU in its strongest territory and still couldn't break 200k. For the PS4 270k isn't bad but if that's the best this generation's sales leader can do than the console market is really going to contract.

How much sold Wii + PS3 + 360 vs Wii U + PS4 + XB1?

Depending of result I don't think the market will contract.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

How much sold Wii + PS3 + 360 vs Wii U + PS4 + XB1?

Depending of result I don't think the market will contract.

The market will contract by at least 80 to 100 million consoles .
Depending on your view and games you like it may not matter same for certain companies.

 

[Nirolak]

I don't wanna look like those claiming the WiiU is on a healthy trajectory, but I think the stock situation makes it hard to tell what demand is for the Vita. I mean just read what Abdiel said:

Weren't the low Vita sales due to shortages?

On the timescale note, this is something that should also become obvious in one direction or another come next month's NPD, given it doesn't take two months to restock these days without at least having a healthy performance.

 

[SDCowboy]

I would say neither PS4or X1 are having great hardware sales, and this problem is likely to return next summer as most summers have weak lineups. The X1 just got a lower-priced SKU in its strongest territory and still couldn't break 200k. For the PS4 270k isn't bad but if that's the best this generation's sales leader can do than the console market is really going to contract.

It's getting harder and harder to detect if a post is sarcasm or not. If it's not, 270k for June is fantastic.

 

[Game Guru]

Yep that was the problem with the Wii it cratered way to fast .
I mean people were thinking Wii was the system that was going to sell more than PS2 but end up selling 50 million less.
The lead system normally sell some more even after the next one comes out that did not happen with Wii it was dying 2 year before .

it was poor management from nintendo. the wii mini should have happened in 2010 alongside super mario galaxy 2 or something. the 3ds and its games should have come out in late 2010, and the wii u should have been a 2011 system when everything else was still scheduled for late 2013. i'm not sure how their planning was set, but it looked like they were doing it almost on a yearly basis versus doing it five years at a time.

My point is that if this is going to be a shorter generation and the Wii ends up surpassing the PS4 then the PS4 might not actually exceed the Wii's sales. It was those last few years and an extended generation that allowed the other systems to catch up with the Wii. People bought the Wii and five years later as per tradition, they were ready for a next generation system. However, no one had one ready so you saw some buying 360s and PS3s as a sort of stop gap until the next generation actually came with Wii U, PS4, and XB1. This explains why Wii cratered when it did and why it might match the traditional console cycle as well as why the sales of 360 and PS3 also cratered with the launch of their successors.

Yeah, Nintendo should have released the Wii U earlier, but what's done is done. I'm just seeing if Wii's sales curve was actually in line with the traditional length of a console cycle and what that might mean for PS4 sales if this generation is to be more traditional in length.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Nintendo shouldn't have dropped support for the Wii when they did. 2010 was great and then there was nothing until Skyward Sword. Even its 2011 holiday sales were decent even if they fell behind 360/PS3.

Also Wii mini was such a joke.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

My point is that if this is going to be a shorter generation and the Wii ends up surpassing the PS4 then the PS4 might not actually exceed the Wii's sales. It was those last few years and an extended generation that allowed the other systems to catch up with the Wii. People bought the Wii and five years later as per tradition, they were ready for a next generation system. However, no one had one ready so you saw some buying 360s and PS3s as a sort of stop gap until the next generation actually came with Wii U, PS4, and XB1. This explains why Wii cratered when it did and why it might match the traditional console cycle as well as why the sales of 360 and PS3 also cratered with the launch of their successors.

Yeah, Nintendo should have released the Wii U earlier, but what's done is done. I'm just seeing if Wii's sales curve was actually in line with the traditional length of a console cycle and what that might mean for PS4 sales if this generation is to be more traditional in length.

The the thing is PS2 was still selling after PS3 came out both software and hardware .
PS3 and 360 still selling and might reach 10 million each after PS4 and X1 came out and we know they still selling software .
Wii stop selling any real hardware or software after 5 years that really is unheard off since even PS1 was selling software .
If you going by per tradition the old systems still sell hardware and software after there successors come out Wii was dying 2 to 3 years before .
Now you can say Nintendo mess up the timing but then again no one expected the Wii sell so much so fast but also die so fast in software and hardware .

 

[CosmicQueso]

We're getting into chicken and egg territory here really; is a reduced portfolio of titles going to lead to less mass market appeal in spite of 'natural demand' for consoles, or is a reduced portfolio of titles a response to already lost demand.

The answer, ultimately, is it doesn't matter. Both hypotheses lead to a reduced market.

Actually the difference matters quite a bit.

If it's a question of reduced slate, not reduced demand, there's reason for the remaining publishers to invest in PS4/Xone development, bring additional content, and get SW sales back on the trajectory they were on at launch.

If it's consumer demand, then there is no incentive to produce additional content or invest in more development.

So it is a very big and meaningful difference.

 

[Game Guru]

The the thing is PS2 was still selling after PS3 came out both software and hardware .
PS3 and 360 still selling and might reach 10 million each after PS4 and X1 came out and we know they still selling software .
Wii stop sell any real hardware or software after 5 years that really is unheard off since even PS1 was selling software .

The PS2 also lasted until like last year and had decent third-party support because of Wii and PSP games being ported to it and because it still made a profit for Sony unlike the PS3 for the longest time. Sony only dropped the PS2 when they were ready to go into full scale PS4 production. PS1 probably had a more realistic post-successor cycle as I don't remember PS1 having too many games released after the PS2 came around beyond small titles.

 

[AniHawk]

How much sold Wii + PS3 + 360 vs Wii U + PS4 + XB1?

Depending of result I don't think the market will contract.

wii = ~100m
360 = ~85m
ps3 = ~85m

anywhere between 260m and 270m for consoles is about right. keep in mind this wasn't a market for a lot of startups. traditional publishers are who made a lot of money in this gen and it's they who also suffered a lot of problems.

just trying to grasp for a good feeling on the upcoming generation is hard. japan is pretty much meaningless, and other markets are becoming accepting of video games, but will they offset what was lost? will video game consoles even be that big of a deal in five years? can we go so long without an update again? eight years was a longass time. do you think 2020 is an appropriate year to be seeing the next xbox, nintendo system, or playstation?

all that stuff works against what might be reasonable for this upcoming generation. i personally don't feel as optimistic about it just off of the contraction we're already seeing, and the dip in variety that's taken place over the last couple of years.

so my guesses:

wii u: 11m
japan: 3m - it had a remarkably good holiday last year, given what preceded it. i think it's something that can be repeated at least for this year. sales are already nearing 2 million, and with smash bros. and even better bundles, i think the platform could see the better side of 2.3m by the end of the year. after that, there's no real system seller and the thing will just have to move off the existing value. zelda's basically a dead franchise over there, and whatever else is coming out will probably only cater to the existing fanbase.
europe: 3m - european sales are so shit for this system. i think i'm being pretty optimistic with this guess, although like with america, there's been a bigger push than japan to get wii us to customers. so maybe it'll actually make it to this number after all.
north america: 5m - current sales are roughly 2.5m. if things continue along this route, and sales are at least what they were last year (about 700k for november + december), then wii u will be at 3.5m in the us by the end of the year. i don't think this is an unreasonable prediction. after that, sales will probably die down from 2014 for most of 2015, and only tick upwards slightly when zelda comes out. but who knows, maybe splatoon is actually going to be a system seller and drive millions of units in the states. regardless, i wouldn't expect much more than another million and a half out of the machine in the us, especially if 2016 is the last year it's on the market.
rotw: negligible. i don't even know if nintendo really ships to more than these regions, but i can't believe it would be substantial.

xb1: 44m
japan: 0.5m - the xbox 360 actually sold 1.65m units in japan, improving on its predecessor by over 200%, but given the current state of japan, i think things will slide way back down to the original xbox at best.
europe: 16m - it will probably do well enough across the pond to keep up a good second place appearance next to the ps3, but given the current split between the us and europe, i don't know how microsoft will win people over in what has been traditionally sony's turf.
north america: 24m - i kind of expect a decent recovery from microsoft on the platform, and a good push in the american market where they have espn and football and calaudoody. i think they have lost and will continue to lose a lot of customers to sony and the ps4. it will be rough.
rotw: 3m - i don't even know. i'm just kinda putting this here because the numbers look pretty sad overall now that i think about it.

ps4: 83m
japan: 6m - the system's off to a rough start right now, but it sorta reminds me of the vita. i don't think sales are representative of where they will be, and in a way it's somewhat encouraging that it's managing 7k in a week when there's really nothing to cater to the fanbase. 2015 will give a fuller picture, since it's also when a lot of japanese games are hitting. i don't think there's any denying that the importance of the console market has diminished, either.
europe: 32m - i guess i just kind of expect europe to pretty much make this their thing.
north america: 35m - sales will probably more resemble the ps1 than the ps2, wii, or xbox 360. still, it will have a solid place as the market leader.
rotw: 10m - again, i don't even know. sony's been successful in markets nobody really considers but at the same time those numbers aren't made public. then if china actually becomes a thing, maybe it'll be even more successful than just this.

so i guess for me i'm looking at 83m + 44m + 11m for 138m or so in the console space over the span of about 5-6 years. i think that even if these numbers are off sony is the only manufacturer who has the chance of not facing contraction of any kind and even the possibility of growth over the previous gen. but this doesn't even resemble the gen preceding last (ps2 - 155m, xbox - 24m, gc - 22m, dc - 10m = total - 211m), but the last half of the 90s instead (psx - 100m, n64 - 33m, saturn - 9m = total - 142m).

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I think they should not care about the core gamers at all for their next console when they are designing it. It's one of the reasons to why the WiiU is kinda in the situation it is in now.The casuals were ignored to an extent when the WiiU launched. At least they are focusing on their core base and the casuals to an extent now.They just need to get an effective strategy to get some or most of the casuals back when they are designing their next console and to focus on this audience when there next gen console launches. They can branch out from there later in that console's gen, but they can not ignore the casuals while doing this.

Idk about that. IMO casuals are lost to tablets and phones for now.

It took the waggle stuff in Wii to draw them in. It will take something like VR done well and cheap to pull that crowd in and it seems like Nintendo isn't much involved with that right now.

 

[theprodigy]

AniHawk pls, how are North America and Europe sales going to be nearly equal for the Xbox One

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The PS2 also lasted until like last year and had decent third-party support because of Wii and PSP games being ported to it and because it still made a profit for Sony unlike the PS3 for the longest time. Sony only dropped the PS2 when they were ready to go into full scale PS4 production. PS1 probably had a more realistic post-successor cycle as I don't remember PS1 having too many games released after the PS2 came around beyond small titles.

In Japan some of best selling PS1 games came out after PS2 launch ( march 4th 2000 ) like DQ7 (August 26, 2000) and FF9 (July 7 2000 )there were also few more mid size ones.
They also came out close to PS2 launch in NA and afterwards in EU but PS2 had BC so software was still selling even if you move on.
Wii was doing nothing in software or hardware for 2 to 3 years it was not normal .

 

[ascii42]

I have a hard time seeing that.

MAYBE $50 for each system, but I can't see a $100 price drop after a year...

PS2 dropped $100 in Spring of 2002, since GameCube and Xbox dropped their prices then too. I see MS dropping first and Sony following along.

 

[Orthogonal]

I expect all 3 systems to have a true price cut in 2015, probably towards late summer or early fall. I can even see one being aggressive at $100, but that depends on how things go over the next year.

 

[shandy706]

Oh wow, just got on and saw the numbers.

I definitely undershot with my X1 prediction.

X1 selling nearly 200k is not bad.

Didn't realize the lifetime on NPD was so close together too.

 

[SwiftDeath]

wii = ~100m
360 = ~85m
ps3 = ~85m

*snip*

Mother of god man, Bold, Italicize, Underline. Do something

 

[gundamkyoukai]

wii = ~100m
360 = ~85m
ps3 = ~85m

anywhere between 260m and 270m for consoles is about right. keep in mind this wasn't a market for a lot of startups. traditional publishers are who made a lot of money in this gen and it's they who also suffered a lot of problems.

just trying to grasp for a good feeling on the upcoming generation is hard. japan is pretty much meaningless, and other markets are becoming accepting of video games, but will they offset what was lost? will video game consoles even be that big of a deal in five years? can we go so long without an update again? eight years was a longass time. do you think 2020 is an appropriate year to be seeing the next xbox, nintendo system, or playstation?

all that stuff works against what might be reasonable for this upcoming generation. i personally don't feel as optimistic about it just off of the contraction we're already seeing, and the dip in variety that's taken place over the last couple of years.

so my guesses:

wii u: 12m
japan: 3m - it had a remarkably good holiday last year, given what preceded it. i think it's something that can be repeated at least for this year. sales are already nearing 2 million, and with smash bros. and even better bundles, i think the platform could see the better side of 2.3m by the end of the year. after that, there's no real system seller and the thing will just have to move off the existing value. zelda's basically a dead franchise over there, and whatever else is coming out will probably only cater to the existing fanbase.
europe: 4m - european sales are so shit for this system. i think i'm being pretty optimistic with this guess, although like with america, there's been a bigger push than japan to get wii us to customers. so maybe it'll actually make it to this number after all.
north america: 5m - current sales are roughly 2.5m. if things continue along this route, and sales are at least what they were last year (about 700k for november + december), then wii u will be at 3.5m in the us by the end of the year. i don't think this is an unreasonable prediction. after that, sales will probably die down from 2014 for most of 2015, and only tick upwards slightly when zelda comes out. but who knows, maybe splatoon is actually going to be a system seller and drive millions of units in the states. regardless, i wouldn't expect much more than another million and a half out of the machine in the us, especially if 2016 is the last year it's on the market.
rotw: negligible. i don't even know if nintendo really ships to more than these regions, but i can't believe it would be substantial.

xb1: 50m
japan: 0.5m - the xbox 360 actually sold 1.65m units in japan, improving on its predecessor by over 200%, but given the current state of japan, i think things will slide way back down to the original xbox at best.
europe: 22m - it will probably do well enough across the pond to keep up a good second place appearance next to the ps3, but given the current split between the us and europe, i don't know how microsoft will win people over in what has been traditionally sony's turf.
north america: 24m - i kind of expect a decent recovery from microsoft on the platform, and a good push in the american market where they have espn and football and calaudoody. i think they have lost and will continue to lose a lot of customers to sony and the ps4. it will be rough.
rotw: 3m - i don't even know. i'm just kinda putting this here because the numbers look pretty sad overall now that i think about it.

ps4: 86m
japan: 6m - the system's off to a rough start right now, but it sorta reminds me of the vita. i don't think sales are representative of where they will be, and in a way it's somewhat encouraging that it's managing 7k in a week when there's really nothing to cater to the fanbase. 2015 will give a fuller picture, since it's also when a lot of japanese games are hitting. i don't think there's any denying that the importance of the console market has diminished, either.
europe: 35m - i guess i just kind of expect europe to pretty much make this their thing.
north america: 35m - sales will probably more resemble the ps1 than the ps2, wii, or xbox 360. still, it will have a solid place as the market leader.
rotw: 10m - again, i don't even know. sony's been successful in markets nobody really considers but at the same time those numbers aren't made public. then if china actually becomes a thing, maybe it'll be even more successful than just this.

so i guess for me i'm looking at 86m + 50m + 12m for 148m or so in the console space over the span of about 5-6 years. i think that even if these numbers are off sony is the only manufacturer who has the chance of not facing contraction of any kind and even the possibility of growth over the previous gen. but this doesn't even resemble the gen preceding last (ps2 - 155m, xbox - 24m, gc - 22m, dc - 10m = total - 211m), but the last half of the 90s instead (psx - 100m, n64 - 33m, saturn - 9m = total - 142m).

Some of those X1 and PS4 numbers make no sense with how the market going for EU.
360 sold around 25 to 30 million in EU at most and you expect it sell so close when it selling worst in UK and a non factor every where else they had little market share before.

 

[AniHawk]

Mother of god man, Bold, Italicize, Underline. Do something

i had line breaks and stuff.

 

[AniHawk]

Some of those X1 and PS4 numbers make no sense with how the market going for EU.
360 sold around 25 to 30 million in EU at most and you expect it sell so close when it selling worst in UK and a non factor every where else they had little market share before.

good point. i revised downward for it slightly.

whatever the 360 market was, i'm guessing the ps4 will eat up, just as a general thing.

 

[1st Course]

Nintendo's approach is surprising to me. In many ways, they are just letting the console die right before our eyes, unlike their aggressive attempts at salvaging the 3DS early. Wii U certainly has a great lineup by now, but the lack of a genuine price drop is puzzling me. Especially with Mario Kart 8 out now, I would have imagined that hitting a $199 price point would really go a long ways towards improving their situation. Perhaps they are simply unwilling to take a loss, and feel like any attempts to do so wouldn't yield enough improved software sales over time to offset this investment. It feels like they've given up and have taken the completely opposite approach that Microsoft has -- they are not getting rid of the GamePad and dropping the price. It will be very interesting to see how these different strategies pan out. I'm inclined to believe Microsoft is making the right move by acting swiftly to decrease costs for a peripheral that consumers don't recognize as value-added.

Iwata promised shareholders a return to profitability this fiscal year. Going by that I don't expect to do a price cut or anything risky this year.

 

[SwiftDeath]

i had line breaks and stuff.

Were you raised on reddit? That's not nearly enough organization for my internet-addled mind

 

[Mikey Jr.]

With essentially WiiU out of the sales race at this point, is there now a bigger pie for Sony and MS?

The Wii probably stole a good amount of consumer dollars, no?

Or did the consumer that buy the Wii never really had any intention of buying a PS3 or 360?

 

[Game Guru]

In Japan some of best selling PS1 games came out after PS2 launch ( march 4th 2000 ) like DQ7 (August 26, 2000) and FF9 (July 7 2000 )there were also few more mid size ones.
They also came out close to PS2 launch in NA and afterwards in EU but PS2 had BC so software was still selling even if you move on.
Wii was doing nothing in software or hardware for 2 to 3 years it was not normal .

That's Japan... The Japan that still pretty much supporting the PS3 over any other console. Dragon Quest usually comes in near or at the end of a system's life and so do the last mainline Final Fantasy game for a system... Japan most likely moved on later than everyone else from the Wii, and that's why they are still supporting PS3 only rather than jumping onto the crossgen game.

 

[prag16]

good point. i revised downward for it slightly.

whatever the 360 market was, i'm guessing the ps4 will eat up, just as a general thing.

PS4 doubling Wii U in Japan seems kind of aggressive but I guess we'll see what happens when PS4 actually has some games.

 

[psn]

Depends on who ends up on top. Sony saw virtually no competition in Gen5 and Gen6, and yet I'd argue those were easily the best 10 years in console history in terms of software, particularly in terms of variety — the very same "niche/moneyhatted" games you describe. Despite completely dominating the market, Sony took the initiative in publishing those niche games that otherwise may have never seen the light of day due to the startup costs, even though the core design philosophy of the PS1 itself was lowering the cost barriers for developers through optical discs. Sony took the money they were raking in and used it to fund small developers that went otherwise ignored by the likes of EA. You could say the corporate philosophy was, "Share the wealth, and we all get richer."

Of course, you also have companies with different philosophies, like MS. Once they were comfortable with their position in the marketplace with the XB360, they all but abandoned core game development, apart from the money-printers, Halo, Forza, and Gears. They attracted people to the brand by paying lip service to small developers, but once MS had the userbase, they didn't need to waste time with the small-potatoes devs, and could instead invest that money in to DRM research and biometric advertising survey cameras. Their corporate philosophy might be described as, "Hoard the wealth, and we get richer."

Different companies, different philosophies, different behavior. While it may be safe to assume that a given company will act as you describe once they've achieved market dominance, you can't then assume that all companies will act in the same fashion. Sony and MS are actually perfect of examples of how two different companies will leverage their dominance in different ways, given the opportunity. Institutions like these don't really change their basic behavior and strategies. There's a reason the very word institution has come to mean something which doesn't change. "Corporate DNA" would be the buzzwordy way of describing it, I suppose.

You mention Arrogant Sony, but their biggest mistake was in designing an $800 console, which was certainly the most badass console around, but it was still a hefty investment. So they sold me my 20GB on launch day for $500, effectively giving me their uber gaming box, and still leaving me $300 to spend on software. So I got $800 worth of hardware, and five free games of my choosing. Maybe as many as a dozen free games, if I spent my pennies wisely. So yeah, fuck you very much, Arrogant Sony. /facepalm

Hardware pricing does bring up another advantage of market dominance that I forgot to mention though; less money wasted on hardware, meaning more money spent on software instead. Let's look at a "competitive" scenario, where you have two equally viable platforms — not a bad choice to be made either way. You have a situation where it's a coin toss which platform a given user ends up on, and the more appealing both systems are, the more consumers who will feel compelled to buy both systems.

Let's look at our pool of 100M gamers again. We'll say 5M are Team Green, and will never buy anything but MS, and we have another 5M on Team Blue. With equally viable platforms, you might have 70M more who flip their coin, so you have 40M of each console sold. Then the remaining 20M gamers get both platforms, so they don't miss anything important. So we have 120M pieces of hardware sold, in to a market of only 100M customers. Sounds like a pretty healthy market, right?

Well, let's compare it to dominance. Team Green dutifully buy their 5M XBoxen, and Team Blue their 5M PlayStations. Now we have another 85M who decide PlayStation is the obvious choice, given the price and capabilities of the hardware, and Sony's excellent track record getting games made, especially when they're dominant. The remaining 5M buy both platforms, so they don't miss anything important. So now we have 105M units sold to our 100M gamers, a 13% contraction in the hardware market. Panic ensues.

Except that's a good thing. The extra 15M units weren't really doing anyone any good. We still have 100M gamers buying games either way. Even the platform holder doesn't benefit, as those units are being sold at cost, or worse. The primary effect of those 15M units is to pull an additional $4.5B (yes, billion) out of the pockets of gamers. That's $4,500,000,000 that could've been spent on games, but instead it was pissed away on hardware because competition. Tell Bobby Kotick you know how to get people to spend an additional half-billion a year on games and see if he perks up at all.

Great summary. I don't fear Sony as the leader, but some things may have a good influence. Microsoft is going to implement 3d support for Blu-Ray and I'm pretty sure that Sony is now pushed to implement it as well. Same for some other features.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

That's Japan... The Japan that still pretty much supporting the PS3 over any other console. Dragon Quest usually comes in near or at the end of a system's life and so do the last mainline Final Fantasy game for a system... Japan most likely moved on later than everyone else from the Wii, and that's why they are still supporting PS3 only rather than jumping onto the crossgen game.

I really trying to understand your point ?
You ask if the Wii was following a normal consoles cycle and i show that in both hardware and software it was not .
The Wii was also best selling system in Japan but they drop it like a rock even before everyone else.
he PS1 and PS2 the 2 leading system for there gen did not stop sell hardware or software after there successor came out .
PS3 and 360 still selling software and hardware after there successor out it don't matter where software from they still doing it .
This did not happen with the Wii and a hardware cycles was never set to 5 years it really depends on the company .

 

[Mikey Jr.]

wii u: 11m

No way.

11m?

That would be an unmitigated disaster. Thats straight up Dreamcast levels.

 

[Subtervotion]

*Snip*
PS4: 83m
Japan: 6m - the system's off to a rough start right now, but it sorta reminds me of the vita. i don't think sales are representative of where they will be, and in a way it's somewhat encouraging that it's managing 7k in a week when there's really nothing to cater to the fanbase. 2015 will give a fuller picture, since it's also when a lot of japanese games are hitting. i don't think there's any denying that the importance of the console market has diminished, either.
Europe: 32m - i guess i just kind of expect europe to pretty much make this their thing.
North america: 35m - sales will probably more resemble the ps1 than the ps2, wii, or xbox 360. still, it will have a solid place as the market leader.
rotw: 10m - again, i don't even know. sony's been successful in markets nobody really considers but at the same time those numbers aren't made public. then if china actually becomes a thing, maybe it'll be even more successful than just this.

i had line breaks and stuff.

Bold and underline work wonders. Your write was great though. I could see it happening.

 

[AniHawk]

With essentially WiiU out of the sales race at this point, is there now a bigger pie for Sony and MS?

The Wii probably stole a good amount of consumer dollars, no?

Or did the consumer that buy the Wii never really had any intention of buying a PS3 or 360?

i think there's definitely a fanbase interested in traditional consoles who aren't being catered to by any console manufacturer. the potential is there to actually reach these people again, but it doesn't seem like anyone is trying, nor do they have any interest in trying (aside from nintendo, but the wii u and its games are still too expensive and unappealing). i don't subscribe to the idea of 'they aren't coming back,' but i don't see anything being done to court them again either.

 

[theprodigy]

No way.

11m?

That would be an unmitigated disaster. Thats straight up Dreamcast levels.

yeah, I see something more like a 6/3/4 split between NA/Europe/Japan for 13 million
15 million is pretty much the ceiling though

(note: this is still a failure)

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Bold and underline work wonders. Your write was great though. I could see it happening.

There is no way PS4 will sell less in EU than in NA after 3 PS system it will either be the same or more .
Never under since EU is Sony land .