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[SwiftDeath]

"But how much does Sony's lead really matter?"-Galileo

The state of the console market

"You don't develop courage by being happy in your relationships everyday. You develop it by surviving difficult times and challenging adversity." - Epicurus

 

[Zeuanimals]

What does everyone think PS4's 2014 total end up as (NPD) ?

So far PS4 has sold 1589k.

360 did 3896k in its first full year (2006)

The holidays should move a lot, not sure how many but I'd say possibly 2 million + for both, just for the holidays in the US. Not sure about the Wii U but it'll see a bump since it has some big games at the end of the year too.

No I am talking about world wide sales. 360 hit 84 before the ps3 did. Ps3 never passed the 360...yet. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise.

OT but you might want to stop double posting. You won't last long here. Learn to make use of opening up different tabs if you want to quote multiple people, then cut and paste those quotes onto one reply.

 

[Raist]

I have already proven your guess if 4.5 dies not make sense. I even explained it more in the last post. Unless you think toward 2 million ones are on the shelves your 4.5 guess is mad fir present sales.

Stating "it just can't be", quoting wrong figures and saying "sold through was thought to be X" isn't exactly "proving". But whatever.

I didn't say they only sold 3.5 as of now either. Just that you have absolutely no idea what the actual sold through figure was when they said they shipped 5M.

 

[TheRealTalker]

I can see them being over 8 million by now

counts on how Europe's demand is faring

 

[theprodigy]

Europe would have had to spontaneously die at the beginning of April for PS4 to not be at 8 million by now lol

regarding 360/PS3, I believe 360 hit 80 million a month earlier, although I dunno when either one hit 84 million

 

[Shiggy]

That was have prediction. When it shipped over 5 million last time the sell through was said to be 4.5 with some saying 4.3. Even if it was 4.2, we know since then the one sold over 300k we, so to think CURRENT SALES are only at 4.5 is madness unless you really believe there are 1.5 to 2 million xboxes on shelves.

All reports we are getting from Europe are pointing to that there are lots of consoles on the shelves. In fact, we've seen similar channel stuffing happen with both 360 and Wii U. There's currently no evidence that X1 has sold nearly as much in Europe as in the US, thus it's not certain that the console sold more than 5 million units by now.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Stating "it just can't be", quoting wrong figures and saying "sold through was thought to be X" isn't exactly "proving". But whatever.

Wrong figures? Like the 3 million or the over 5 mill shipped from Microsoft own mouth? I mean you can make things up if you want but I am pretty sure ms knows their own numbers.

 

[Raist]

Wrong figures? Like the 3 million or the over 5 mill shipped from Microsoft own mouth? I mean you can make things up if you want but I am pretty sure ms knows their own numbers.

Ho, I'm sure they know their numbers. Which is why they tell us how many they've shipped but surely not how many they've actually sold anymore.

The 3M figure I quoted was the sold through one at the end of 2013. Which came straight from MS.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

All reports we are getting from Europe are pointing to that there are lots of consoles on the shelves. In fact, we've seen similar channel stuffing happen with both 360 and Wii U. There's currently no evidence that X1 has sold nearly as much in Europe as in the US, thus it's not certain that the console sold more than 5 million units by now.

There is a difference between console stuffing and 2 million units on shelves after cut downs in places thst dont get as many shipments in the u.s. Saying Xbox one sold 4.5 million only just now is mad unless they sold 0 maybe 500.

 

[Shiggy]

There is a difference between console stuffing and 2 million units on shelves after cut downs in places thst dont get as many shipments in the u.s. Saying Xbox one sold 4.5 million only just now is mad unless they sold 0 maybe 500.

Well, how do you come to the conclusion that they were at 4.5 mio by the end of March? And I didn't say that's their current sell-through number.

 

[Graphics Horse]

You should find out in a few days how much they shipped this Q. My guess is not many.

 

[ascii42]

OT but you might want to stop double posting. You won't last long here. Learn to make use of opening up different tabs if you want to quote multiple people, then cut and paste those quotes onto one reply.

It's easier than that. Click the little + symbol on all posts you want to quote, and then click quote.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Ho, I'm sure they know their numbers. Which is why they tell us how many they've shipped but surely not how many they've actually sold anymore.

The 3M figure I quoted was the sold through one at the end of 2013. Which came straight from MS.

Which is exactly what I have been saying was from... Did you confuse yourself? You think they only sold 1.5 million in around 5 months? Cool.

 

[theprodigy]

I would not be surprised if MS shipped less than they sold in the US this quarter.

or they can continue channel stuffing, idk

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Eh, only two days to find out. If they say 6 or more million shipped that will blow the 4.5 prediction out the water.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I would not be surprised if MS shipped less than they sold in the US this quarter.

or they can continue channel stuffing, idk

They had to ship a bunch of Kinectless units, so I'm not sure, but I think they'd have taken up the vast majority of what was shipped. Edit: which would mean they shipped less than they sold,.

 

[Raist]

Which is exactly what I have been saying was from... Did you confuse yourself? You think they only sold 1.5 million in around 5 months? Cool.

~1M in the US. Wouldn't surprise me if they sold half of that in the rest of the countries, no.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

This has been one fascinating NPD thread, I tell you what.

It most certainly is.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

~1M in the US. Wouldn't surprise me if they sold half of that in the rest of the countries, no.

Even though UK numbers have it towards 500k alone? Hmm. Two days.

 

[Lynn616]

What are we fighting about I want to join?

 

[Amir0x]

It most certainly is.

It's why I love NeoGAF. Sometimes if you don't just try to post in a forum like this once in your life (or participate in some other form of mass social conversation), you may lose perspective at the incredible diversity of thought that the human mind is capable of producing. I of course include some of my past insane theories as well. One day back on NeoGAF, though, and you'd be remembered of it all.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

This has been one fascinating NPD thread, I tell you what.

The less guesswork needed for these numbers leaves the imaginations to soar in some, I guess.

 

[ethomaz]

No you are quoting the predictions of the last report. They already shipped over 5 million last time. For your theory to work, Xbox would have had to sell next to zero. To still only be around 4.5 mill to consumers.

Last sold numbers from MS was 3 million... after that you are creating numbers.

5 million was over shipped to Titanfall launch and MS said this quarter they will work with store inventory... I expect low shipment.

 

[Raist]

Even though UK numbers have it towards 500k alone? Hmm. Two days.

500k XB1 sold in the UK alone in 2014? Source?

 

[theprodigy]

3 million-end of 2013
1.1 million-US sales in the first 6 months of 2014
???-everywhere else first 6 months of 2014

personally I think the LTD is around 4.8 million

 

[SlavetodaBOX]

Blah..Blah...blah.....this is what we've been reduced too?

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Blah..Blah...blah.....this is what we've been reduced too?

3DS being bested by goat psp

 

[Isleofsancroy]

500k XB1 sold in the UK alone in 2014? Source?

I said towards. You know this.

 

[Amir0x]

Blah..Blah...blah.....this is what we've been reduced too?

you mean discussing in great elaborate depth what the results of the NPD actually mean for the various videogame companies and then debating the merits of our various theories about what it means going forward in a sales topic about NPD?

 

[theprodigy]

3DS being bested by goat psp

We need a launch-aligned comparison between two Powerhouses™, Xbox One and 3DS.

lol j/k, they don't even line up well

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Last sold numbers from MS was 3 million... after that you are creating numbers.

5 million was over shipped to Titanfall launch and MS said this quarter they will work with store inventory... I expect low shipment.

No gafs estimate is 4.5 I never said MS stated it.

 

[Raist]

I said towards. You know this.

Towards 500k sold in the UK alone in 2014? Source?

 

[theprodigy]

No gafs estimate is 4.5 I never said MS stated it.

No way GAF estimate was 4.5m, it was probably around 4-4.2m or something.

 

[ethomaz]

3 million-end of 2013
1.1 million-US sales in the first 6 months of 2014
???-everywhere else first 6 months of 2014

personally I think the LTD is around 4.8 million

I agree... they are right now between 4.5m and 5m max.

When they announced 5m shipped they was around 4 million.

 

[TheRealTalker]

yup 4.2 was us
(well some of us)
but that was awhile ago

 

[Shiggy]

No gafs estimate is 4.5 I never said MS stated it.

Would be good to provide a link...

 

[ethomaz]

No gafs estimate is 4.5 I never said MS stated it.

Bad GAF estimates if it really happened because the consensus at time was 4.0-4.2m.

My maths.

US End of 2013: 1,817k
WW End of 2013: 3,000k

US = 60%

I will use the same launch ratio but I believe the sales in EU have a even big drop compared with US... so the US ratio increased maybe to close 62% or 63%... I don't know 65%? The drop after launch was real.

US End of March 2014: 2,527k
WW End of March 2014: 4,211k

US End of June 2014: 2,916k
WW End of June 2014: 4,860k

Any reasonable person you see XB1 sales are below 5 million yet and in March it was not close to 4.5m either.

If the US ratio increased to 65% then the sales are 3,887k for March and 4,486k end of June... the 5 million shipped was just to fool you guys... they are working with store inventory already shipped.

 

[On Demand]

I see those charts have finally been taken down. Only if we could of kept it a secret and shared it amongst each other every month. Oh well.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

No gafs estimate is 4.5 I never said MS stated it.

This is getting ridiculous. You need to start citing sources for every number you pull out of your ass.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Towards 500k sold in the UK alone in 2014? Source?

Uh pal charts?

 

[spatenfloot]

Uh pal charts?

There aren't any pal charts

 

[ascii42]

Uh pal charts?

What PAL charts are you looking at that have hardware sales?

 

[Raist]

Uh pal charts?

Yeah. Show it to me.

Because, (and once again I'm gonna quote actual numbers while you just mumble random stuff) we know the XB1 sold 364k in the UK in 2013.
We know it sold 1.8M in the US in 2013, and 1.1M in 2014. That's a 40% decline. It's likely a best case scenario for the UK.

Yet you're telling me that the XB1 has sold more in the UK in 2014 than in 2013? Really?

 

[theprodigy]

Uh pal charts?

Xbox One 500k+ in the UK is LTD not YTD (and is probably a fair bit over 500k by now, but that's not the point).

 

[ethomaz]

And stop... there is no UK figure after end of 2013

 

[Isleofsancroy]

This is getting ridiculous. You need to start citing sources for every number you pull out of your ass.

Uh have sourve? From the last ms confuse thread? I did not make up one single number. 4.5 is gag. 3 is ms, 3.9 ship is ms, and over 5 mill ship is ms.

 

[ethomaz]

Uh have sourve? From the last ms confuse thread? I did not make up one single number. 4.5 is gag. 3 is ms, 3.9 ship is ms, and over 5 mill ship is ms.

GAF never estimated 4.5m... the consensus at time was below that number... 4.2m was the most agreed numbers in the thread.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

And stop... there is no UK figure after end of 2013

There were hardware estimates by had members rushcard month and the month after on some pal charts in the U.K.

 

[Shiggy]

Uh have sourve? From the last ms confuse thread? I did not make up one single number. 4.5 is gag. 3 is ms, 3.9 ship is ms, and over 5 mill ship is ms.

Read the last few post. There you can see why your numbers are questionable. And you have yet to provide a source for the 4.5 mio sell through, even if it's just a supposed GAF estimate (which not a lot of people seem to know of huh).

 

[theprodigy]

For the record, the 1.1m/0.7m split I used is 61% US, because I don't think the ratio has gone up that much.

either way, the idea that it's somehow over 5 million right now is absurd, but 4.5 million is crazy too