theprodigy
Member
Like I said, that was in response to someone talking about Media Create "baselines".
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NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Like I said, that was in response to someone talking about Media Create "baselines".
Disagree... Think the Xbox One is around 5 million.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I actually think the Wii U will sell better in 2015 then 2014 in all honesty. That's a belief most folks here seem to believe is impossible. I think its holiday sales will be a bit lower, but its first 6-8 months will be quite a bit better than 2014 because it'll actually have a far more complete library. It's possible too that they'll have a price cut by then (I don't think we'll have one in 2014 believe it or not). I think Splatoon has a chance of outselling all but Zelda in 2015 as well.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
They have been at 5 million fir awhile so id say minimum id 5.5 or so.
What titles are coming in early 2015 though? I mean, it's possible with a big price slash, but with the current software lineup I don't see a big chance for higher sales.
Concerning Splatoon, I actually do believe that it has more of a mass market appeal than Zelda. Zelda seems to be more targetted at an audience that's more or less absent from Nintendo platforms these days. A huge marketing campaign would be necessary though; the lack of success for the Wii U is another hinderness for Splatoon to succeed as a new IP.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
What do you mean? Are we talking about shipped or sold? They've only sold 2.7m in the US, and I doubt they've sold anywhere near 2.3 in Europe...
What exactly are Bayo 2, Hyrule Warriors, X and other titles appealing to exactly? Families? They are appealing to a similar demographic to Zelda fans lol.
What titles are coming early 2015? I'm not sure in all honesty. I think they mentioned Splatoon as an early 2015 title, but I'm not sure. Basically if sales were to pick up appreciably over the holidays, I would think Nintendo would like to ride that increase with some proper marketing and releasing some titles. It looks to me like Yoshi is pretty far along in development, so I'd presume that's an early 2015 title. X was delayed from 2014, so that may be an early 2015 title as well. If Nintendo had even 3 titles in the first 6 months, I think that would easily eclipse the 2014 slate of DKC & Wii Fit U until when MK8 releases sadly. If sales increased enough, maybe they can get a third party announcement or two, even if it was in the family friendly category (Rabbids 3: We've been sitting on this for 6 months the Game) or w/e.
theprodigy
Member
They overshipped a lot in the first quarter, I would assume that they would reduce shipments this quarter to balance it out.
5 million shipped; sales in Europe are sluggish. Doubtful that they sold that much by now.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
They shipped more than that last report.
Wasn't that shipped instead of sold? Guess we'll find out soon either way...
Isleofsancroy
Banned
It clear they had to have sold over 5 million if they shipped around 5.5 million a bit after there last report.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
5.5 was shipped. By now I think 6.x have been shipped so it should be over 5 million by now. But considering Ms only reports shipped numbers we won't actually find out a full figure.
The last shipment number (from March 2014) was 5.2 million.
http://www.microsoft.com/investor/E...s/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY14/Q3/default.aspx
So what's your argument actually? Channel stuffing is a thing with Xbox One, that's why we've seen price drops.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Unless they've actually sold closer to 5m, I doubt they would have shipped 500K more units though... unless they simply shipped the Kinectless SKU without taking back unsold stock in places.
Welfare
Member
Yeah, I agree. They were 5.1 million shipped back in March, and have sold at least 389k (US only) since then. I believe MS has been keeping a consistent ~1 million difference between shipped and sold, so if that is true (I could be remembering this wrong), shipments should be >5.5 million at least.
i think there's the possibility that 2015 can be the wii u's peak year instead. there are some parallels to the 3ds where 2011 was a poor start, 2012 was an improvement, and 2013 was pretty much the best the system could hope for. i really think it depends on having attractive bundles and a good entry price. a $250 console with smash bros. or mario kart 8 would probably help move systems in 2015 beyond what's happening now, or at least keep things from declining.
that's just for the us though.
2016 is going to be really rough. it's at this point the quality of life stuff should be in full swing, possibly to offset whatever nintendo doesn't have ready by then. i sort of get this feeling that whatever they do, their new console may not be ready until 2017. this belief is only offset by the expectation that their new handheld and new console will share the same library, and that the 3ds is going to need a replacement soon.
theprodigy
Member
assuming the ratio of US/world sales is similar to the original Xbox, it has probably sold around 5 million as of this June NPD
so yeah they definitely overshipped, mainly in the launch quarter (because they probably did sell around 1.2m in January-March, but they sure as hell didn't sell 3.9m in the launch period)
so yeah they definitely overshipped, mainly in the launch quarter (because they probably did sell around 1.2m in January-March, but they sure as hell didn't sell 3.9m in the launch period)
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I'd imagine Nintendos primary concern is profitability with the WiiU, so wouldn't be surprised if they start going for 'value adds' rather than price reductions (free VC or eshop titles, more buy one get one free digital promotions like Mario Kart offered, etc).
Do you seriously expect those titles to sell well on Wii U? I don't, Wii U doesn't have an audience for that. Hyrule Warriors will probably sell best out of those titles as the Zelda franchise is attached to that. Without that, it would be dead on arrival.
Could happen indeed, but I actually think that X and Yoshi will rather sell to existing Wii U owners. The latter can be compared to DKC, which didn't really increase hardware sales. X is incredibly niche - as evidenced by sales of Xenoblade, I cannot see that sell great numbers all of a sudden now. I'd be surprised if Nintendo suddenly put a big marketing budget behind that title as it doesn't seem "family-friendly".
Is the Ubi game actually a Rabbids game? A Rabbids Invasion title would make quite a lot sense.
I imagine world-wide sales are between 4.5-5 million for the XB1. By the end on 2013
there will probably be 2:1 (if not higher) sold difference in favor of the PS4.
With all the channel-stuffing MS are doing, I expect some amazing deals this coming Black Friday
TheXfactor
Member
I feel like this thread turned into "you're being optimistic, you are wrong!" and "you're being pessimistic! You're wrong!"
The overshipment to EU is large enough to make it possible to buy Xboxone here in Sweden. A country that the Xbox One is not realesed in yet. I have no idea what the sales number are in the EU, but I have a hard time to see that the sales are close to those in USA.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Ouya will save us,
On a sidenote: Now I finally understand why the Media Markt in Stockholm only has the PS4 and Wii U, whereas other stores over here also have the Xbox One. Hadn't quite noticed that oO
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Why do you think they were taking back money skus?
I don't think that's correct at all.
It's pretty much a dialogue between "wild hopeful speculation" and "historical trends don't reflect that."
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
No idea about the Ubi game, but that's just a guess. Looking at the old NPD thread, I don't we actually know how many copies Xenoblade sold. Honestly in the US X might sell better b/c it may actually be stocked at stores other than Gamestop lol.
There's no guarantee any game is "definitely" going to be niche. Also hardware wise, the 3DS basically peaked in 2011 holidays iirc. 2012 started off ok but didn't have much software to keep things going. 2013 had a ton of awesome software, including two titles most folks here probably didn't think would sell as well as they did (Fire Emblem Awakening & Luigi's Mansion 2). Thus if the 3 titles for early 2015 were Yoshi, Splatoon & X, I think that'd be a good enough variety to make a marketing campaign around it.
I'd have to agree with the Xfactor more on this one Tookay. The fact is that we don't know how things are going to sell, and neither does Nintendo. Enough people on the "practical" side are basically stating their opinions as "definite fact" even if they aren't really meaning to. I agree with the "wild optimism" though. There's a balance here, but the sales this month at least show that potentially there's something to be built on here, potentially via more marketing, etc.
Think it will be close to 2:1 for worldwide sales by the end of the year. Could see PS4 being at around 13-14 million and Xbox One being at 7-8 million. These next 4 months in all will probably equal around 500K in Xbox One sales for the US. Then I could see November and December pretty much being close to 1.5 Million for US. That alone would add 2 million to the number the Xbox One has sold worldwide thus far.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Well if Ouya is "other console" it sold 2k. Unless they sold that with madcatz.
theprodigy
Member
I thought the 3DS sold nearly the same amount in all 3 years from 2011-2013, at least in the US?
The key difference here is that 1) these titles are on the 3DS, a far healthier system, and more importantly, that 2) these titles ultimately didn't change much anyway (screw you Pokemon, you made me believe in 3DS sales in my November/December 2013 NPD predictions).
The key difference here is that 1) these titles are on the 3DS, a far healthier system, and more importantly, that 2) these titles ultimately didn't change much anyway (screw you Pokemon, you made me believe in 3DS sales in my November/December 2013 NPD predictions).
Isleofsancroy
Banned
its insane too think any console is going over 10 million by the end of the year.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I remember the 3DS only sold 5% more in 2013 compared to 2012. I don't remember the difference b/w 2011 and 2012 though.
Do you think Nintendo would release a new 3DS revision, like a clamshell 2DS or something? I think they might eventually do that in Japan, and when they do, it might not be too bad to release here. The original 3DS basically doesn't sell anyways, so if they care to replace it, that would be a way to do it. I know plenty of folks who basically want the original 3DS, but either want better battery life or the feel of the XL without the size. They also mostly don't care for 3D either.
Isn't the PS4 pretty much at 8 Million in worldwide dales? Should easily sell more than 2 million by the end of the year.
DC1
Member
The projection is optimistic but fair.
August and September will be hard months for the XBOX One.
However, as you have expressed, October (MCC..I think) and the holiday push is an opportunity for MS. The question is whether or not Microsoft will fully invest.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
So now it's not handheld, it's a carry-around console-ish thing? It had a tripod stand that you needed to use, you didn't hold it up to your eyes like a Viewmaster, and it had a separate controller.
I don't care what it was marketed as, I've used one and is not portable like a handheld.
But that's... sort of self-evident, isn't it?
Of course we won't know until we know.
But that doesn't mean that all predictions are equally valid or even probable.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Not the way your thinking to reach 14-13 million. Also it hasn't been confirmed to be at 8 million yet although possible.
theprodigy
Member
PS4 will probably hit that by the end of August, so...?
well if 3DS did around 3.8m in 2013, and almost that much in 2012, and the LTD was around 11.5m at the time, then 2011 must have also been around that range (3.8x3=11.4)
as for 3DS revisions, idk, but honestly the current 2DS feels sort of like the 3DS's version of the Kinectless SKU: consumers know that it's effectively a downgrade, and therefore don't bite on it
PS4 will at least reach 15M, maybe 16. I agree with your Xbox number, should be chose of 8M.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Its not a console because you don't plug it to a tv and the screen is on the console. Its also easy to move around. Its portable in comparison which is why it was marketed as such. Portable does not always mean to fit in pocket.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
What does everyone think PS4's 2014 total end up as (NPD) ?
So far PS4 has sold 1589k.
360 did 3896k in its first full year (2006)
So far PS4 has sold 1589k.
360 did 3896k in its first full year (2006)
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Its not going to sell over 10 million by august.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
By the end of 2014 I can see a little over the 360s. This holiday will be big.
I'd bet on 4.2M
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Sony Im expecting high 8-9 million at most.
As for MS on Tuesday I guess we can guess numbers to consumers by their shipped figures.
If they say over 6 million shipped I would say 5.5. Nearly 7 million sniper would be around 6 million. Anything higher would be a miracle.
As for MS on Tuesday I guess we can guess numbers to consumers by their shipped figures.
If they say over 6 million shipped I would say 5.5. Nearly 7 million sniper would be around 6 million. Anything higher would be a miracle.
Welfare
Member
I actually see PS4 selling >4.5 million in 2014, so just a little under 3 million in the next 6 months. Destiny, GTAV, and the Holidays will be huge for Sony.
theprodigy
Member
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Damn that sounds scary!
It will never be safe to walk the streets.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Based on swift deaths estimates ps4 at the moment should be between 8.5 - 9 million it will 10 million when destiny cones out imo
if we give it 50k/week for the next two months, it's another 400k. assume that destiny has the same impact halo 3 had on the xbox 360 and that's 500k for september, with maybe another 300k for october? novembers and decembers have been sort of equaling each other lately (with the edge usually given to december of course), so about a million in each should do.
4-4.5m is a pretty safe guess, i think.