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[Riky]

GC is not like xbox in US. Honestly I don't think something will save xone to the incoming decline. The only thing is cost less to the ps4. I don't see someone get an xone over a ps4 at the same price, it's not a good deal at all. .

I disagree, I'm in the UK so you will have to forgive me if prices are different wherever you are. On Amazon UK today the PS4 is in stock at £349, the X1 is in stock at £349, but comes with both Titanfall and Kinect. To buy the PS camera is £57 and say Killzone for Titanfall is £36.

I would say the X1 bundle is value at the same price.

 

[Cornbread78]

wow, this thread has got some serious legs here... I'm now looking forward to seeing April numbers and how that race ends up.

 

[Biker19]

Japan was not the main reason why PS2 numbers were so high they help but the system was a monster every where .
PS2 sold 155 million in all and in Japan they sold 22 million (last number i can find ) that might seem like a lot but at end of the day it's only about 15% ( rounding the number)
Also look at this gen PS3 sold around 80 million but Japan only makes up 10 million add in 360 numbers and Japan made up less than 10% of the market .
PS4 can sell really when but it depends on how fast they can drop the price to get those extra sales from other market which is something PS2 did great but not PS3.

I'm just saying, Japan supplied tons of games for PS1 & PS2, & were the consoles to go for. They didn't do so much for PS3.

So, and this is not me trolling, the next big head to head for Sony and MS won't be until fall, right? Sunset Overdrive and Halo 2 Anniversary vs The Order and DriveClub? I mean, as far as we know right now. There might still be E3 surprises. Should be interesting. 2 new IP's versus an upgrade to arguably the biggest franchise in gaming history and a new IP.

Halo's not that big within the community anymore (especially after what had happened with Halo 4), & a remake of a game that's now 10 years old isn't going to help, either.

Cutting the price to $299 admits defeat. Not only that but it would piss off the investors so badly, that it would force MS to sell off the xbox division. That division is still bleeding from the last two Xboxes. And investors are getting pissed.

This. Microsoft will wind up going back down to the Original Xbox/PS3 territory all over again in huge losses if they do so.

 

[jelly]

They aren't going to price cut to silly levels, it wouldn't work anyway. Best they'll do.

$399
£349
€399

That is enough to get people on the fence. Then Microsoft will have to win consumers over with games and significant platform changes like a re-imagined Xbox Live that fulfils standard expectations from a media device then go from there with unique features and services to sell the Xbox platform over rivals. It's straightforward enough, give people a fair ecosystem and premium aspects worth paying for then enjoy the positive outcome.

Microsoft are blind or arrogant if they think it can be done like the 360 and Xbox One currently, that era is well and truly over. Competitors have shown the way, consumers are going with it. Jump in Microsoft.

 

[kinoki]

I disagree, I'm in the UK so you will have to forgive me if prices are different wherever you are. On Amazon UK today the PS4 is in stock at £349, the X1 is in stock at £349, but comes with both Titanfall and Kinect. To buy the PS camera is £57 and say Killzone for Titanfall is £36.

I would say the X1 bundle is value at the same price.

If the PS4 and Xbox were 1:1 in everything this would apply correctly but it's also a long term investment. Every single multi-platform game will look and perform worse on Xbox in the minds of the consumer, regardless of actual merit. Sony also has better exclusives in the long run and at the moment has about twice the amount of games (do we have hard numbers?) regardless of their marketing budget. To most consumers, at least this early in the generation, this matters a lot.

 

[allan-bh]

Sony also has better exclusives in the long run.

That's subjective.

 

[cilonen]

Arguing the unimportance of Halo is odd to me. People fucking love Halo. While it might not be where it was...it's still a big thing to a lot of people.
.

Important? Yes. I don't think anyone is suggesting it's not an important title. "Arguably gaming's biggest franchise" ? You'd have to be fairly blinkered to argue that.

 

[kinoki]

That's subjective.

Let's go with "more" instead. Is that okay?

Spoiler

As someone who have called out subjective in the past I feel kind of ashamed. Sorry.

 

[PhoenixDark]

$300 isn't going to happen and is not needed. The XB1 is $100 more expensive than the PS4 yet only getting outsold by what, 30-60k a month in the US? Cut the price to $400 and there's no reason it wouldn't gain parity with the PS4. Software sales are high, I'm going to assume Titanfall will have decent legs, and E3 is coming up. The console will be fine.

I'd imagine they're trying to hold off the price cut until November. Lowering it at E3 would be a sign of panic to me, and I see no point for that considering this is a 5-7 year race.

 

[CadetMahoney]

distant second place is not "fine" by any metric.

 

[Hoo-doo]

$300 isn't going to happen and is not needed. The XB1 is $100 more expensive than the PS4 yet only getting outsold by what, 30-60k a month in the US? Cut the price to $400 and there's no reason it wouldn't gain parity with the PS4. Software sales are high, I'm going to assume Titanfall will have decent legs, and E3 is coming up. The console will be fine.

I'd imagine they're trying to hold off the price cut until November. Lowering it at E3 would be a sign of panic to me, and I see no point for that considering this is a 5-7 year race.

It´s getting outsold by the PS4 in what arguably should have been their biggest NPD month of the year.
There were bundles all over the place for $450 with Titanfall packed in. Titanfall is probably the biggest release they have all year.

I'm really not sure why you think price parity would mean it would achieve sales parity. I don't think that's going to happen.

 

[N.Domixis]

I wonder how much noise certain nipple sucking sites would have done if the xbox did win March. We would probably have articles saying that xbox is set to dominate, and MS wanted that.

 

[RustyNails]

Do we know how the Wii sold in Jan and Feb?

Well, using 40k each, as a guess:

NPD total after 89 months:

PS2: 41.77m
Wii: 41.68m

Only now it has fallen behind the PS2 launch aligned.

(According to the NPD numbers I have, which may be outdated, but whatever...)


Wii has the best first 12 months of a home console, with 5.05 million (PS2 2nd best, 4.1m).

PS4 is at 2.91 million, with 7 months left, meaning it needs to average 306k per month to match the Wii. Not easy.

As discussed before, Xbox One owners buy more physical software, despite the more expensive hardware.

The XBO jumped ahead of the Wii U, 2 months after the PS4 did it:

Wii was a behemoth. I never realized what a runaway hit it was. It's unimaginable to believe that a videogame console sold 300k+ units a month in US.

 

[benny_a]

Let's go with "more" instead. Is that okay?

Spoiler

As someone who have called out subjective in the past I feel kind of ashamed. Sorry.

Just say it is for the last few years the publisher with the higher points per year total on the NeoGAF Game of the Year votings. Also it has the higher individual games with critical acclaim. ;-)

Edit: Of course this due to and I paraphrase: This forum is full of frothing Sony fanboys.

 

[kartu]

My grandma doesn't have an Xbox One yet, how will I be able to Skype her if they remove Kinect?

Uh, let me guess, by her using a (choose one):

1. tablet
2. notebook
3. smartphone

I'm pretty sure all mentioned work just fine without kinect.
Oh, and without Xbox Live Gold, subscription too...

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Totally agree, The 360 was actually profitable, this would go back to the original Box scenario of making a huge loss on each console to get get marketshare , they'd be back to square one, theres now way they'll do that, they's get slaughtered by the investors.

They just need to accept where they're at world wide, and just slowly rebuild using the US as a base since they're going okay there. do essentially what sony did last gen. theres no quick fix here, slashing $200 of your asking price 6 months ago is too reactionary.

Was it?

I was under he impression that late on in the cycle the 360 eventually made a profit on an annual basis, but the overall venture in consoles was a huge loss.

 

[TyrantII]

Remember when Gamecube dropped to $99 when both the PS2 and the Xbox were both $80 more expensive? Remember when that didn't result in the Gamecube becoming the best selling console in the US? Price is not the be-all end-all of console sales.

I agree. But then you also have the XB1 sitting at the toxic $499 level that has shown to be a tough pill for consumers to swallow.

I don't think they need to slash it to $299, but getting it to $399 is important to get it under that $500 psychological barrier in the consumers mind.

Other than that, make it about games and the gamer. Sony's slow rebuilding of the pricey PS3 is their road map.

But it'll entail dropping a lot of their monetization ideas and giving a hell of a lot more value to their customers, instead of trying to funell it to shareholders.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

I have a question. If GAF wasn't around to collate all the NPD data and calculate accurate estimations do you think the general games media would even be reporting on this stuff or anything at all?

 

[Tripon]

I have a question. If GAF wasn't around to collate all the NPD data and calculate accurate estimations do you think the general games media would even be reporting on this stuff?

Sure, whenever a company releases a Press Release.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

If anything, the results of march are going to make for a real interesting april NPD.

This was supposed to be Xbox biggest month of the year. Non-stop deals and free game pack-ins, the release of their biggest title of the year with a hype/marketing train that was astronomical in size. But still they were not able to surpass the competition in the crucial market where they are strongest.

The hype for Titanfall has all but died off completely now, next month's NPD could very well see the Xbox One bottoming out hard.
What's next on the horizon in terms of system sellers?

I still think it's funny that people are positioning Sunset Overdrive as a big tentpole AAA release at all, purely because it's exclusive.

It's insomniac. They make rather decent games but they aren't fit for a role like this. It'll be a boon for Xbox One owners if it turns out great, but it'll hardly be a title they'll be able to go "Head-to-head" with anyone with.

People are putting a lot on Insomniac's shoulders and at some point they probably just can't deliver on these expectations.

But who knows, Insomniac might just do the impossible.

Insomniac hasn't been all that relevant over the past few years but Sunset Overdrive still looks pretty cool. It won't be a system seller though.

Not much is next that I'm aware of for the XBox One. Kinect Rivals fell flat with reviews but I imagine Microsoft will try and hype the crap out of E3. Problem is Sony is notorious for actually leaking stuff before E3. Once again a lot of emphasis is being put on E3 but I think Microsoft actually needs more hype spread out the year instead of trying to do everything then.

$100 price cut means forgoing a billion dollars of revenue, and eating a big loss for the year. It's not clear how big the new managements appetite for losses in the gaming division is. Obviously they can afford to do it, but whether they'll choose to is an open question.

$399 is the lowest they will go. Having a bundled game and being $450 is still cheaper than a PS4 but that perception of hitting parity of $399 is more influential I think. Kinect bundled for $399 to me offers more than a PS4. I still think there is value in Kinect and Microsoft won't be dropping it.

Can't they sell a Kinectless Xbone or would that undermine the whole Kinect is integrated in the Xbone?

Of course they could, just like they were able to change their DRM policies unlike what Major Nelson said about it's not as simple as flicking a switch. It would take a revamped operating system but they could do it. Very unlikely though.

It's incredible how the success of the 360 is mainly due to the USA.

Not really. Online is very popular and many of the services for XBox Live are USA apps. It's become an issue now for the XBox since Playstation has regained marketshare back and the XBox brand isn't nearly as marketable worldwide as Sony and Nintendo.

 

[driver116]

As discussed before, Xbox One owners buy more physical software, despite the more expensive hardware.

The software is not at all accurate seeing as it doesn't account for digital, indies or F2P. So saying "Xbox One owners buy more physical software, despite the more expensive hardware." is simply not the case. And also, that statement it's generalising the US, Europe and Asia as one entity which is simply also wrong.

 

[Salex_]

distant second place is not "fine" by any metric.

I agree. I think people sometimes forget the advantage MS had last generation in the US.

Just to remind people, this was the sales last gen:
360 LTD: 41.3 million
PS3 LTD: 25.8 million

The 360 dominated in the US and now that advantage is gone for this generation.

After the deals and bundles on their biggest title of the year, I really don't see why they didn't win this month. The gap will most likely increase as friends of early adapters buy the console their friends have and there's more PS4 software coming out in the next few months than Xbox One.

It doesn't seem possible for them to win any month unless they announce a few big things at E3 or have insane deals during the holidays.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Sure, whenever a company releases a Press Release.

But the press releases didn't include any figures this time round. So unless they read carefully in to the spinaroonies it may be hard to gauge who sold what and the ranking positions.

 

[benny_a]

The software is not at all accurate seeing as it doesn't account for digital, indies or F2P. So saying "Xbox One owners buy more physical software, despite the more expensive hardware." is simply not the case. And also, that statement it's generalising the US, Europe and Asia as one entity which is simply also wrong.

The title of that chart is "NPD US Cumulative Software Sales."

It assumes you know that NPD US only means retail sales in the United States.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

Games for Gold will be announced for Xbox One owners at E3. It is a key part in adding value to the Xbox One aside from a price cut. I expect them to try to make a big splash while doing so. I'll go out on a limb and say they will offer up Forza 5. It would not only match Sony's Driveclub offer to PS plus users but since Driveclub PS plus edition is not the full game, they could claim "We are offering a full racing game while they aren't." as their PR seems to be deceptive like that. Of course, we all know the counter arguement would be Forza 5 and how it has handled DLC.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The software is not at all accurate seeing as it doesn't account for digital, indies or F2P. So saying "Xbox One owners buy more physical software, despite the more expensive hardware." is simply not the case. And also, that statement it's generalising the US, Europe and Asia as one entity which is simply also wrong.

... okay so basically we're at the point where people start replying that we shouldn't discuss US retail sales in a thread about US retail sales numbers.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Games for Gold will be announced for Xbox One owners at E3. It is a key part in adding value to the Xbox One aside from a price cut. I expect them to try to make a big splash while doing so. I'll go out on a limb and say they will offer up Forza 5. It would not only match Sony's Driveclub offer to PS plus users but since Driveclub PS plus edition is not the full game, they could claim "We are offering a full racing game while they aren't." as their PR seems to be deceptive like that. Of course, we all know the counter arguement would be Forza 5 and how it has handled DLC.

So MS is going to start giving out free games on the Xbone when they are giving away games like Rainbow Six Vegas on 360's Games for Gold and actinglike they are doing us a favor?

 

[Crimson_Fate]

... okay so basically we're at the point where people start replying that we shouldn't discuss US retail sales in a thread about US retail sales numbers.

I just think he's saying that while NPD hardware sales are pretty accurate, software sales numbers are not representative of reality unless the digital numbers are included so they should be taken with a grain of salt since we can't draw any true conclusions from the data.

 

[kswiston]

The software is not at all accurate seeing as it doesn't account for digital, indies or F2P. So saying "Xbox One owners buy more physical software, despite the more expensive hardware." is simply not the case. And also, that statement it's generalising the US, Europe and Asia as one entity which is simply also wrong.

XBone owners do buy more physical software in the US. You are free to argue that digital, indies, and PS+ freebies explain away some of the difference, but it's still true.

That said, I doubt it will stay true in the long run. XB1 may retain a better tie in ratio, but if the sales gap continues to widen, it won't be able to maintain a total software lead. See the Wii vs 360 before the Wii fell off a cliff in 2012.

 

[SeanR1221]

So MS is going to start giving out free games on the Xbone when they are giving away games like Rainbow Six Vegas on 360's Games for Gold and actinglike they are doing us a favor?

It brings me back to Pachter telling MS executives they need to include something if they want to charge 499.99. Like a year of Gold. They looked at him like he was crazy.

 

[ethomaz]

With all respect, it's not a great result. It's almost a disaster. Xone has been unable to beat ps4 in the US with the bigger release of the year, bundles, promotion, price drop etc etc... I mean, this a terrible signal. In the next months, couldn't be surprising to see NPD numbers like the last January. I don't see any reason to Xone to stay to decent number. MS needs to cut the price drastically, sound crazy but without something like 299 dollars, this console will go to bad in worst in the months incoming.

I agree. It was a disaster due situation... the sales in numbers are not bad but The most hyped game ever, price cut, deals, etc put the situation like desesperate and disastrous.

 

[Graphics Horse]

It brings me back to Pachter telling MS executives they need to include something if they want to charge 499.99. Like a year of Gold. They looked at him like he was crazy.

They were trying to tell if he was on was of his good days or bad days. He thought both the 3DS was too low priced and expected the Vita to be at least $400.

In the next months, couldn't be surprising to see NPD numbers like the last January.

I shouldn't give away my secrets but honestly I was just going to copy and paste January's numbers into April's prediction thread.

 

[Pain]

The software is not at all accurate seeing as it doesn't account for digital, indies or F2P. So saying "Xbox One owners buy more physical software, despite the more expensive hardware." is simply not the case. And also, that statement it's generalising the US, Europe and Asia as one entity which is simply also wrong.

Software is accurate for what it is which is retail. NPD doesn't claim they track digital.

 

[HiddenForbiddenHolyGround]

Forgive me for not reading the entire thread, I read loads of it. No official numbers for PS4?

 

[benny_a]

Forgive me for not reading the entire thread, I read loads of it. No official numbers for PS4?

No. Only the 371k that is as solid as you're going to get.

 

[Tsundere]

Forgive me for not reading the entire thread, I read loads of it. No official numbers for PS4?

There have been no official numbers for years; we've got numbers from people who've seen the data, and it points to 60k over Xbox One.

 

[metalslimer]

Forgive me for not reading the entire thread, I read loads of it. No official numbers for PS4?

371k, although not official.

 

[Skeff]

Forgive me for not reading the entire thread, I read loads of it. No official numbers for PS4?

Not official, but it's 371k, originally posted by Thuway and later confirmed by someone who had read the NPD report. Apologies to whoever confirmed the numbers, can't remember the username

 

[HiddenForbiddenHolyGround]

Thanks for all the replies.

 

[Wynnebeck]

I agree. It was a disaster due situation... the sales in numbers are not bad but The most hyped game ever, price cut, deals, etc put the situation like desesperate and disastrous.

Titanfall sold extremely well in relative terms for a new IP. Compared to the hype surrounding its status as a system seller, that is where it failed. Now, I really don't think the next TF is going to be exclusive anymore, but EA and MS managed to eek out some dosh from the release.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I just think he's saying that while NPD hardware sales are pretty accurate, software sales numbers are not representative of reality unless the digital numbers are included so they should be taken with a grain of salt since we can't draw any true conclusions from the data.

I think that's kind of empty solipsism, and I also think the reason that stance was adopted was out of not liking the conclusion of the graph, rather than its process, but also I think--again--we're in an NPD thread. So discussing NPD numbers and drawing limited conclusions based on them seems pretty reasonable to me.

It may well be the case that at some point NPD numbers become useless and not at all representative, in which case people should generally stop replying to the thread and it should die off.

 

[Tsundere]

Titanfall sold extremely well in relative terms for a new IP. Compared to the hype surrounding its status as a system seller, that is where it failed. Now, I really don't think the next TF is going to be exclusive anymore, but EA and MS managed to eek out some dosh from the release.

Zampella sure doesn't want TF to be exclusive, so the next one definitely won't be unless Microsoft buts the rights to the franchise. But I don't think it's worth it for them now that they've seen that interest in buying an Xbox One just for Titanfall is almost nil.

 

[Majestad]

Is there any LTD sales for Bravely Default?

 

[TechnicPuppet]

Zampella sure doesn't want TF to be exclusive, so the next one definitely won't be unless Microsoft buts the rights to the franchise. But I don't think it's worth it for them now that they've seen that interest in buying an Xbox One just for Titanfall is almost nil.

I don't understand this at all. People have been buying XB1s for TF since the XB1 launched.

 

[ethomaz]

I was doing some research focused in Amazon sales ranking and by my surprise it is pretty accurate even when GAFers said to me not take the ranking serious.

December: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2013-12/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar]
PS4 - 8th
Xbone - 4th

Result: Xbone won]

January: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-01/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar]
PS4 - 3rd
Xbone - 16th

Result: PS4 won

February: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar]
PS4 - 3rd
Xbone - 23rd

Result: PS4 won

March: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-03/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar]
PS4 - 1st
Xbone - 11st

Result: PS4 won


Amazon seems to be accurate in terms of ranking sales compared with NPD... but when you look games sales you have a surprise:

inFAMOUS - 5th
Titanfall - 6th

It is odd but acceptable because you need to combine TF Bundle + Titanfall to have the real TF sales and I think it will be ahead inFAMOUS.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

--again--we're in an NPD thread. So discussing NPD numbers and drawing limited conclusions based on them seems pretty reasonable to me.
.

I totally agree with this statement , as long as it is kept within the context of the NPD retail sales numbers.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Zampella sure doesn't want TF to be exclusive, so the next one definitely won't be unless Microsoft buts the rights to the franchise. But I don't think it's worth it for them now that they've seen that interest in buying an Xbox One just for Titanfall is almost nil.

I don't understand this at all. People have been buying XB1s for TF since the XB1 launched.

It kinda does seem like everyone who wanted to play TF on Xbone had already purchased one beforehand judging by the strong software sales and getting beat in hardware. MS can try to offer money to EA to get rights exclusivity, but when your partner's competitor is outselling you possibly 2:1 worldwide, that is a giant briefcase of money being left on the table. That's why I feel Activision is laughing all the way to the bank in regards to EA, since not only o they have one of the most beloved game studios ever in Bungie, but they have exclusive content and marketing for a massively hyped IP on the best selling console (relatively compared to 360). It's literally almost Call of Duty all over again.

 

[DrkSage]

When's the next NPD #'s prediction thread, cause I'm ready to make a prediction
I believe this March numbers won't change much when April npd gets released.

 

[ethomaz]

Titanfall sold extremely well in relative terms for a new IP. Compared to the hype surrounding its status as a system seller, that is where it failed. Now, I really don't think the next TF is going to be exclusive anymore, but EA and MS managed to eek out some dosh from the release.

I agree too... and about Titanfall I guess EA is not happy losing possible 2 million sales at $60 on PS4... not just the $ is important but the size of franchise could be even bigger with a multiplatform release... if they want at least be competitive with the other big shooter they need to get rip from the exclusivity.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

I agree too... and about Titanfall I guess EA is not happy losing possible 2 million sales at $60 on PS4... not just the $ is important but the size of franchise could be even bigger with a multiplatform release... if they want at least be competitive with the other big shooter they need to get rip from the exclusivity.

They never lost anything there never was a PS4 version and there wouldn't have been a game at all without MS.

EA will be delighted right now and I assume waiting for a massive number before announcing sales. Maybe not delighted enough to keep the sequel off the PS4 right enough.