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[jjasper]

I wonder which game will sell better this month on Wii:
An overpriced Brain exercise or a discounted port of last gen's best game

 

[besada]

I honestly don't think so. We already know that 360/PS3 games have much higher development costs then wii and the last gen of consoles, which mean that the really big, graphically intense games like the MGS/FF/GTA kind of games will only be made by developers that have large backing from a big publisher, simply because a small publisher could never fund such a game.

Now I was wrong, the devs might like to create art, but the publishers, they really only want their money. So you have a situation where a large team is needed to create a ps360 game but no publisher will want to touch it because the ps360 userbase is too small. Now the same developer can pitch to the same publisher to make 2 games for wii using the same amount staff, hitting a marketbase 2 times bigger, with 1/4 of the budget, developed in half the time. Which project do you think they are going greenlight?

The big boys, the ubi/ea/activision will support ps360, in much the same way as GC saw limited support from these guys in its time. But anyway that thinks in 3 years time that the wii is going to be receiving any less then 50%, even higher, of developer support is simply kidding themselves. This industry has always been completely dominated by one player with one or two others living off the scraps. Thats really the only way that 3rd parties can be profitable. Its the way it always has been and its the way it will continue.

As long as there are 8-10 million 360 owners, willing to drop $60 on a piece of software every single month, developers are going to keep making games for the 360. No dev house is going to cry because they only sold 1 or 2 million copies of their game and neither is a publisher. They're going to greenlight both games in your hypothetical, because while all the great Wii money is nice, there's still plenty of money to be had from gamers who would rather play on a higher-end system. I think MS software sales, even in the face of declining hardware sales, suggest that market isn't going to dry up anytime soon.

Look, I love the Wii, but there are certain games that just can't be done the way we want them on the Wii. We're not going to stop wanting those games, in glorious high resolution, and we have gobs of money (as evinced by our purchases of $400 and $600 systems and craploads of games). So long as those things are true, devs and publishers will continue to put out graphically impressive games on the two high-end consoles. The diversity will go to shit, and all the cute games will wind up on the Wii, but the stuff that can't be done well on the Wii, the Forzas and the GTs and the Halos and Killzones, is still going to be on the other two consoles.

 

[Jirotrom]

You are aware of the fact that PS3 is selling less than the GC, right?

Thats because of price...not games. Your everyday consumer really only buys maybe 3 games a year...they understand what the Sony Playstation is but the price keeps them away. I've seen so so so many people turned off by 599 its not even funny.

 

[Merovingian]

I honestly don't think so. We already know that 360/PS3 games have much higher development costs then wii and the last gen of consoles, which mean that the really big, graphically intense games like the MGS/FF/GTA kind of games will only be made by developers that have large backing from a big publisher, simply because a small publisher could never fund such a game. 1st

Now I was wrong, the devs might like to create art, but the publishers, they really only want their money. So you have a situation where a large team is needed to create a ps360 game but no publisher will want to touch it because the ps360 userbase is too small. Now the same developer can pitch to the same publisher to make 2 games for wii using the same amount staff, hitting a marketbase 2 times bigger, with 1/4 of the budget, developed in half the time. Which project do you think they are going greenlight?
2nd
The big boys, the ubi/ea/activision will support ps360, in much the same way as GC saw limited support from these guys in its time. But anyway that thinks in 3 years time that the wii is going to be receiving any less then 50%, even higher, of developer support is simply kidding themselves. This industry has always been completely dominated by one player with one or two others living off the scraps. Thats really the only way that 3rd parties can be profitable. Its the way it always has been and its the way it will continue. 3rd

1st - What small publishers are these? Majesco? Yeah i doubt those will make games for the 360 and PS3, and honestly, it's not like they ever showed ability to handle big games in any gen, but on the Wii, production values mean very little. So really, support won't change, from last gen, at least the support that people cared about.

2nd - They are going to greenlight both. Because they can make both, and the developers want to make both.

Look, here's an example, Saw(the movie) costs 3 million to make, and it made like 100+ million worldwide or some crazy shit like that. Is every studio making Saw? No. Why? Because the Market demands all kinds of movies, and Directors and the rest of the creative people want to make all kinds of movies. So, no it won't happen like you dream of it to happen, because there will be market for both.

3rd - You are living in a dream world. It's obvious you aren't looking at announcements, the support the Wii will get will simply be different, because it's a different market. And isn't the whole point of the Wii to search for a new market, and expand the market as a whole? What will happen is that publishers will be making money on both the wii and the xbox360/Ps3. Because when it's all said and done, the market will be bigger than it was last gen (that's the whole purpose of the Wii) and it each userbase will be BIG.

 

[Roi]

Oh god...
I need a GIF to cool down.

 

[quetz67]

Cheap quick games get announced sooner. We all know that developers where (rightly) caught with their pants down regarding wii's appeal. AAA titles generally take 18-24months to be made. Its not unreasonable to assume that any really big games would only be getting greenlighted probably around now, mainly because they are a bigger risk and the publisher needs to be sure the userbase will be there to support said AAA game. Also, punching out quick, low risk games allows a developers to scout out the system and what it can and can't do.

But why should devs make such games on old tech? And why risk making those huge games on Wii? Wii will have a huge userbase but there will be tons of games made for the Wii in the future and it will be hard to compete with lots of crap that regardless might suit the typical Wii user, some quality games and probably overshadowing Nintendo 1st party games

 

[Starchasing]

Thats because of price...not games. Your everyday consumer really only buys maybe 3 games a year...they understand what the Sony Playstation is but the price keeps them away. I've seen so so so many people turned off by 599 its not even funny.

Maybe its because there is another console that they like better... who knows

 

[AstroLad]

I've seen so so so many people turned off by 599 its not even funny.

It's a little funny.

 

[Merovingian]

Maybe its because there is another console that they like better... who knows

The wii is not that appealing. You talk as if someone who liked their Ps2 would look at a wii at 250 and a Ps3 at 250 both with games and they would choose the wii.

gimme a break

"New market" people, amazing that nintendo fans allways forget what the wii is here to do.

 

[syfodyas]

I think the 360 has secured itself a nice spot in the States, but it's increasingly believable that the PS3 will never be anything but irrelevant, like the Gamecube was, and its father before it.
.

The Nintendo 64 was hardly irrelevant.
Titles such as Mario 64 and Occrina of Time disagree with you..

 

[Chû Totoro]

One thing nobody can deny : the videogame industry is now very strong.
There's a lot of money here and even if most of you only think about who's the first they are all winner for me.
It may be a tough period for Sony but it won't last and everybody will sure make a lot of money in the next years.

 

[Orlics]

The Nintendo 64 was hardly irrelevant.
Titles such as Mario 64 and Occrina of Time disagree with you..

He was talking about sales.

 

[syfodyas]

He was talking about sales.

Me too. Sales of N64 were not that bad at all..

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

He was talking about sales.

The N64 sold more in NA than the Xbox or GCN (combined?).

 

[Mrbob]

The Wii may light up the hardware charts, but companies won't pull their X360 projects for Wii games. X360 software is like guaranteed money for 3rd party publishers, and has been from the beginning. Wii hasn't shown the ability to generate the same amount of money for 3rd parties. You can argue about lower development costs, but it doesn't matter. X360 will be the horse to rake in most of the cash for games, and then PS3 and PC will pick up the slack. You really have 3 platforms you are selling a game on versus one, and it looks like many development teams want to advance technology. There is no way they will go back to old tech to make games.

Don't worry, Wii will still get plenty of multiplatform games. But the only type of major exclusives I see are of the Boogie variety.

Also, don't discount the chance of a second half hardware spike for the X360. MS just needs to get on the ball.

 

[Starchasing]

The wii is not that appealing.

Of course not... it sells because it is cheap right?

You talk as if someone who liked their Ps2 would look at a wii at 250 and a Ps3 at 250 both with games and they would choose the wii.
gimme a break

We have a saying in my region that says:

"If my grandpa had walls, windows and doors he would be a house"

It means that you cant daydream a 250$ PS3 with games and ask me if it would sell better than Wii.

Right now Wii is killing PS3 , deal with it, it is not such a big deal.

 

[Saitou]

One thing nobody can deny : the videogame industry is now very strong.
There's a lot of money here and even if most of you only think about who's the first they are all winner for me.
It may be a tough period for Sony but it won't last and everybody will sure make a lot of money in the next years.

Except Sony, if they keep this up.

 

[quetz67]

Of course not... it sells because it is cheap right?

The Wii is way overpriced, while the PS3 is a good deal, why cant people see that?

 

[Merovingian]

Of course not... it sells because it is cheap right?




We have a saying in my region that says:

"If i my grandpa had walls, windows and doors he would be a house"

It means that you cant daydream a 250$ PS3 with games amd ask me if it would sell. Right now Wii is killing PS3 , deal with it, it is not such a big deal.

Who said it was?

You are the one who tries to twist the knife everytime you have the chance. Apparently it is a big deal to you.

The Wii is way overpriced, while the PS3 is a good deal, why cant people see that?

Just because a Porche is more worth the $ than a cheaper car like it, doesn't mean that people are willing to pay the $ for a porche.

 

[jjasper]

The Wii is way overpriced, while the PS3 is a good deal, why cant people see that?

Cause the PS3 is only a good deal if you care about HD movies. I would be willing to bet a lot of people don't.

 

[Starchasing]

The Wii is way overpriced, while the PS3 is a good deal, why cant people see that?

Because people are dumb.

Who said it was?

You are the one who tries to twist the knife everytime you have the chance. Apparently it is a big deal to you

I loved how you ignored the rest of my post

 

[AstroLad]

The Wii is way overpriced, while the PS3 is a good deal, why cant people see that?

Definitely new thread material.

 

[LCGeek]

The Wii may light up the hardware charts, but companies won't pull their X360 projects for Wii games. X360 software is like guaranteed money for 3rd party publishers, and has been from the beginning. Wii hasn't shown the ability to generate the same amount of money for 3rd parties. You can argue about lower development costs, but it doesn't matter. X360 will be the horse to rake in most of the cash for games, and then PS3 and PC will pick up the slack. You really have 3 platforms you are selling a game on versus one, and it looks like many development teams want to advance technology. There is no way they will go back to old tech to make games.

Don't worry, Wii will still get plenty of multiplatform games. But the only type of major exclusives I see are of the Boogie variety.

Also, don't discount the chance of a second half hardware spike for the X360. MS just needs to get on the ball.

You're trying to argue why 3rd parties do better on 360 vs Wii with that logic. How's this for a hypothetical how about we switch up the level of quality and see how much your system does for 3rd parties guranteed it would do worse. If you think publishers and therefore most devs follow tech prepare for some disappointment in the next few years. Outside of handful of independent developers the industry follows the money.

 

[h0l211]

Some further analysis:

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14341

'While much of the focus will be on the hardware sales alone, there are some other very interesting results just below the surface of the data: three consoles with diminishing sales, a key to the Nintendo DS sales streak, Spider-Man's weakness, and the game that sold more copies than Pokemon Diamond this month -- but wasn't in the top 10 list.'

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

MS Price Drop. Do It Now. You Dumb people.

Quoted for great justice. PS3 is done. Now, MS is letting the 360 flounder. By ignoring the failure rates and the price, they seem to actively want to lose.

 

[jmdajr]

guys i think it's way too early to assume ps3 will do as well as the gc.

:lol OH MAN

 

[MercuryLS]

The Wii is way overpriced, while the PS3 is a good deal, why cant people see that?

Cause one is affordable and one isn't? Doesn't matter what kind of value you add to a system, it simply won't be SEEN as a value at $600. Videogame systems are still toys after all, look at X360, its only selling 'decently' at $400 (that's also too much). $300 or less is the pricedopint in which these HD machines will really start selling well.

 

[AstroLad]

Some further analysis:

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14341

Good read. Kind of an interesting observation about Forza:

Forza 2's Sequel Surge

Finally, a happy note for the Xbox 360 and its new game Forza Motorsport 2. Back in 2005 when the original Forza launched, it was on sale for almost the entire month of May and managed to sell a respectable 185,000 copies.

For the sequel, however, its sales began at the end of May -- the 29th -- and still managed to make the top 10 software list with 217,000 copies. Microsoft has to be pleased with that result.

MS can dab their tears about hardware sales with Forza sales reports.

 

[jjasper]

You're trying to argue why 3rd parties do better on 360 vs Wii with that logic. How's this for a hypothetical how about we switch up the level of quality and see how much your system does for 3rd parties guranteed it would do worse. If you think publishers and therefore most devs follow tech prepare for some disappointment in the next few years. Outside of handful of independent developers the industry follows the money.

I think what he is saying is that if things continues as being a choice of making a 360/PS3/PC game vs. a Wii game. The 360/PS3/PC game will still have the largest base to sell to even if the Wii is the best selling console overall.

 

[Merovingian]

Good read. Kind of an interesting observation about Forza:



MS can dab their tears about hardware sales with Forza sales reports.

Word. Xbox live word of mouth will hopefully push the final sales of Forza 2 waaay beyound Forza 1. I think it deserves to do well.

 

[santouras]

--blah--
Because when it's all said and done, the market will be bigger than it was last gen (that's the whole purpose of the Wii) and it each userbase will be BIG.

Thats true, market always gets bigger. However

Nes: Units sold 61.79 million
SMS: Units sold 13 million
---------
SNES: Units sold 49 million
Genesis/MegaDrive: Units sold 29 million
---------
PS: Units sold 102.49 million
N64: Units sold 32.93 million
---------
PS2: Units sold 120.10 million
XBOX: Units sold 24 million
GC: Units sold 21.59 million
DC: Units sold 10.6 million


ALL of those systems saw profitable games. There are probably even some (maybe one) profitable games for n-gage. HOWEVER, history says that one system will dominate, and dominate by a long way. That system is going to be the one that will have the biggest proportion of games. GC, XBOX, even DC had massive scale games made for them, but PS2 had more then the rest combined and times 3 or 4. No-one is saying that there will never be a proftiable game made for ps360, however what I'm saying is that sheer momentum will demand that developers/publishers release most games for the system that has most of the marketbase.

I also contend that ps3 especially, and probably 360 as well, will never crack 30million each. I can't see ps3 getting past 20.

 

[jjasper]

Did the SNES really outsell the Genesis by 20 million?

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Some further analysis:

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14341

'While much of the focus will be on the hardware sales alone, there are some other very interesting results just below the surface of the data: three consoles with diminishing sales, a key to the Nintendo DS sales streak, Spider-Man's weakness, and the game that sold more copies than Pokemon Diamond this month -- but wasn't in the top 10 list.'

From that link:

As Hollywood's blockbuster movies hit the screens this summer, so do the accompanying licensed games. In May 2007 three such movie games launched -- Shrek the Third, Surf's Up, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End -- yet none of them reached into the top 10 sales charts.

Perhaps cumulative sales across all platforms would tell a different story, but even the huge installed bases of the Nintendo DS and PlayStation 2 didn't draw enough sales of these licensed games to register on NPD's list.

These games are licensed crap aimed at casuals. Since these games aren't doing well, were as licensed crap, like Spiderman, with a more hardcore fanbase than POTC, would this suggest that casual gamers have better taste than we give them credit for? Or is Spiderman a hardcore game and you ****s haven't been owning up to it?

Maybe we should stop worrying so much about the incoming casual gamers and give them more credit.

 

[Merovingian]

I also contend that ps3 especially, and probably 360 as well, will never crack 30million each. I can't see ps3 getting past 20.

That alone is enough for me to not accept your argument. We will see what will happen, i think you are completely wrong.

 

[santouras]

That alone is enough for me to not accept your argument. We will see what will happen, i think you are completely wrong.

I'll see you in 6 or 7 years time for this gens post mortem.


Or 10 according to Sony :lol

 

[MobiusPigeon]

It took 17 pages, but we've finally got some stupid arguments.

I wish somebody would show me one system, just one system, where it sold like gangbusters, and then suddenly dropped like a log. If you can show me just one system that did that, I'll accept the idea that the Wii could fall off the face of the earth.

uh didnt dreamcast break all kinds of sales records at its launch and thru first holiday?

So what was Microsoft's rationalization for ****ing making the Elite? Seriously, it hasn't done them a goddamn bit of good for market penetration and probably directly correlates to this decrease in sales.

to further undermine the ps3. simple.

 

[LCGeek]

I think what he is saying is that if things continues as being a choice of making a 360/PS3/PC game vs. a Wii game. The 360/PS3/PC game will still have the largest base to sell to even if the Wii is the best selling console overall.

That's a bad argument

If devs could rely on PC sales they wouldn't put stuff in the console world and piracy is a huge factor. Also PC sales for the type of games your advocating would be less since the average pc is out of the requirements to play some of the 360 or PS3 based titles at a respectable rate. Same could be said for PS3 if the system was viable devs wouldn't be jumping to 360 or multiplatform stance like some are now advocating. Main reason this doesn't fly with me is because it assumes the userbase is automatically bigger than Wii combined with no real backup based on sales trends or existing userbase numbers. Right now it would fly but I doubt by mid 2k8 or 2k9 that both PS3 and 360 will still be a bigger userbase combined than Wii.

 

[santouras]

That alone is enough for me to not accept your argument. We will see what will happen, i think you are completely wrong.

also, do you disagree with the 360 prediction, or the ps3 one, or both

 

[quetz67]

The funny thing is, this time in 2002 GC had all chances to do quite well (not to beat the PS2 but to win against the xbox) if Nintendo opted to do more than just counter all MS/Sony price drops by $50 and doing nothing about vanishing developer support.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I also contend that ps3 especially, and probably 360 as well, will never crack 30million each. I can't see ps3 getting past 20.

No point in continuing this conversation if you really think so. A very shortsighted view of the console world, pre-price drop.

Looking at the current landscape and announcements over the last 3 months, I can see a scenario where Nintendo finishes first and still doesn't get the lion's share of significant 3rd party support.

 

[Razoric]

to further undermine the ps3. simple.

Why try to undermine something that is DOA? MS needs to focus on Nintendo, not Sony.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

uh didnt dreamcast break all kinds of sales records at its launch and thru first holiday?



to further undermine the ps3. simple.

Yes, but it dropped faster than this. I mean...we're in June now. This has got to be getting "real" for some people out there, don't you think?

 

[dammitmattt]

Relative Weakness For Spider-Man 3?

Just as important, the other big movie license, Spider-Man 3, shows significantly weaker sales than its 2004 predecessor. During the June to July 2004 sales period, Spider-Man 2 launched with sales of over 850,000 copies. By comparison, only 611,000 of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 2 versions of Spider-Man 3 have been sold in its corresponding April to May 2007 launch period.

A generous computation would have Spider-Man 3 moving about 70%-75% as many units as Spider-Man 2 did. Did the negative reviews actually affect sales? The data seems to suggest the possibility, although it's always a dicey business trying to deduce consumer motives.

While some of my software predictions were just a little bit off, I was dead right on this one in the prediction thread. None of the licensed games are going to take off this year like Cars did last year. However, I was surprised to see both versions of Spidey 3 in the top ten (I only thought the PS2 version would hold on), and I also thought that at least the PS2 version of Pirates would make it into the top 10, but I was wrong.

Forza 2's Sequel Surge

Finally, a happy note for the Xbox 360 and its new game Forza Motorsport 2. Back in 2005 when the original Forza launched, it was on sale for almost the entire month of May and managed to sell a respectable 185,000 copies.

For the sequel, however, its sales began at the end of May -- the 29th -- and still managed to make the top 10 software list with 217,000 copies. Microsoft has to be pleased with that result.

This is great news for Turn 10, and total sales should be over 400k at this point based on rough abstractions from leaderboards.

 

[Merovingian]

also, do you disagree with the 360 prediction, or the ps3 one, or both

Both

 

[JDSN]

The Wii is way overpriced, while the PS3 is a good deal, why cant people see that?

Because when people buy their consoles they dont usually factor in if the company is taking a loss for each console sold.

 

[santouras]

No point in continuing this conversation if you really think so. A very shortsighted view of the console world, pre-price drop.

I see your shortsighted claim and raise you a hindsight. GC also started selling very very well and it only sold ~22million worldwide. It came in cheaper and dropped to very cheap not long after. Like the PS3 it also had a software drought, bad initial press, great games, and also had to contend with another system that was selling like gangbusters. Last gen ps2, this gen wii.

 

[LCGeek]

I see your shortsighted claim and raise you a hindsight. GC also started selling very very well and it only sold ~22million worldwide. It came in cheaper and dropped to very cheap not long after. Like the PS3 it also had a software drought, bad initial press, great games, and also had to contend with another system that was selling like gangbusters. Last gen ps2, this gen wii.

GC died to because the development problems nintendo ignored during the N64 that now had become a big issue. Wii could have the same problems but it's unlikely if it takes over the 360 if it goes neck and neck it maybe come an issue.

Sony needs to to eat a huge **** sandwhich if they want the PS3 to make it through the generation. The price is killing the platform as I can't think of any reason besides that for not having one. Sorta dumb because I would have at least 6 PS3 titles if the price wasn't so much, anything more than expensive gpu doesn't get my purchase when it comes to consoles.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

stop looking at NOW and look at the future. MS knew they were going to drop the price this fall. come on. MS' main goal as of now is taking out sony. They want to take ANY SALES AWAY FROM THEM that they can. You dont sit around on your ass waiting to do that. You dont introduce a new system for the holidays thats more expensive to confuse people. you do it NOW to clear out old boards/chips and atthe same time give a better perceived value to those looking at the ps3 and 360. Come this fall it'll all make sense. Sony cant even drop the price $100 now. It wont mean sh*t. MS could just go 199-299-399 and call it a day. and they most likely will.

Where does that leave sony? :lol NO OUT. they'd have to drop $200 which would smack of desperation and if that plan failed they would be FINISHED. there would be NO recovery from a $200 price drop and them still not selling systems. as frustrating as it may seem to us MS is just playing everything 3 steps ahead. They'll profit like mad this fall because of the combination of 2 years of pent up demand, better hardware and a software line up thats just freaking nuts. I expect their home entertainment division to flourish the end of the year.

Another thing. Look at the PSP. if a price drop can make that thing sell then that only bodes extremely well for MS. Again. they will take sony out this year and then i expect them to start focusing on nintendo starting 2008 thru christmas 2008. How? No clue but they have to.

 

[quetz67]

I think the people believing PS3 will sell at GC level long term are probably the same that said the PSP will kill the DS (as it is about the same level of stupidity)

I see your shortsighted claim and raise you a hindsight. GC also started selling very very well and it only sold ~22million worldwide. It came in cheaper and dropped to very cheap not long after. Like the PS3 it also had a software drought, bad initial press, great games, and also had to contend with another system that was selling like gangbusters. Last gen ps2, this gen wii.

and here we have the perfect example for it. comparing some facts and numbers and, seeing similarities and projecting these onto the future without a further thought

1. PS3 was selling great initally despite the price, the GC did because
2. Sony is working to end the games drought, Nintendo kind of didnt care
3. GC had no bad press initially
4. GC didnt have much great games intially
5. GC did not nearly have the developer support the PS3 has
6. GC didnt have the PS brand name
7. Nintendo didnt have the dedication to move hardware at any cost like MS had with xbox and Sony has with PS3 (or better will have)
8. GCs price was already lower than the competition, PS3 is still higher
9. etc. etc.

 

[PkunkFury]

I think the people believing PS3 will sell at GC level long term are probably the same that said the PSP will kill the DS (as it is about the same level of stupidity)