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[GoofsterStud]

RE: Clear Winner ... didn't PS3 catch up or pass 360 at some point? Or did MS take the lead back again.

Loss in market share makes PS3 the loser by default.

 

[Aquamarine]

Loss in market share makes PS3 the loserby default.

PS2 sales at the end of 2009 were around 45 million.

PS3's 26 million, while still respectable, is a failure by comparison.

 

[hodayathink]

RE: Clear Winner ... didn't PS3 catch up or pass 360 at some point? Or did MS take the lead back again.

You're probably thinking worldwide sales, but the LTD of 360 is almost double of PS3 in US.

Back in February 2014 I said:

360 USA LTD - 41.2 million

PS3 USA LTD - 25.7 million


Add in March + April + May, and you have current LTD totals.

Yeah, in the US it isn't even close, and even worldwide it's assumed that the 360 is still ahead, if only by a very small amount (I believe that MS announced that they hit 80 million a couple weeks/a month before Sony did).

 

[AniHawk]

PS2 sales at the end of 2009 were around 45 million.

PS3's 26 million, while still respectable, is a failure by comparison.

26m is pretty good for third place. i think the ps3's biggest failure is how much it cost sony financially when they were already hurting.

 

[shinra-bansho]

unfortunately the difference again with the ps2 is that the ps2 was actually putting games out for those demographics kind of throughout its lifetime, and managed to become only more attractive to casual buyers as time went on (selling a crazy 50m units more. i'm not sure when kids are supposed to be interested in the games coming out for ps4, or why they would suddenly jump on years later.

sony in particular seems to have tried their best to kill interest in buyers purchasing their consoles at very low prices with the ps3. we know that kids and families haven't flocked to the system now- what happens when it's been ten years since the ps3 launched and sony's family market is practically nonexistent? are these people going to migrate to the ps4 because there's a lego game and the system is $300? i think they've been training adult males to buy less things with more money. it also has the effect of shunning these people to other userbases (which was a benefit to the wii and later the xbox 360/kinect, and smart phones).

I would assume they'll aim to reduce the price as fast as possible, and adjust the value proposition, maybe try and push peripherals and associated games more. Whatever Media Molecule is working on, as probably Sony's best developer to attract those markets besides maybe London Studio, is probably aimed at those markets. Whether it will work of course is another matter. Also I don't really look at Sony's ecosystem in isolation here. In terms of the 7th gen, at least, Microsoft was the one that largely captured the late generation family/child market with Kinect and things like Kinectimals. I'm not sure what you mean by actively trying to kill interest, I don't think any of the console makers are in the business of actively dissuading potential customers, but I don't think all of them compete equally well for each potential customer.

I agree that software pricing has likely shaped the market to a degree in terms of the type of software people are willing to buy, at least in terms of new physical releases. At $60 a pop, there's likely greater risk aversion. People buy big brands, sticking with what they know. They buy high production value and spectacle. And they [the more casual purchaser] probably buy less overall as a result.

i'm a lot more cynical than that, because it all seems very manufactured to me. i think publishers are honing in on the people who make them the most money, which makes sense, but it's increasingly narrow. the resurgence of open-world games isn't thanks to the success of grand theft auto (the crew, need for speed, the division, mirror's edge, and whatever upcoming games of the sort were revealed when gta v was still months away). i think it's happening because it's easier to keep a gamer involved that way. competitive multiplayer is one thing. co-op is another. huge open-world games where you play with tons of other players is yet another still, and this time two manufacturers are locking multiplayer behind a pay wall, ensuring a specific kind of dedicated audience for this upcoming generation.

I don't know, I tend to think that good producers make things because they see a market for it; perhaps oversimplifying but, they see a need, they see a want, they put out something that meets those desires and communicate it well, and if they do it well they should see success.

With regard to GTA, I was really referring to people chasing those dollars because of how well they sold during the PS2 era (with three of the top 5 games, including the best selling), and the advent of more powerful hardware probably also helped in realizing better open worlds. I don't think the popularity of online play is something that's been engineered by publishers, rather than something that has grown in popularity organically and that they're simply trying to capitalize on. There was also a shift in terms of many formerly PC-oriented developers breaking into the console space, and those franchises and titles being met with success changing the landscape.

As much as I would like some sort of console JRPG resurgence, for instance, I imagine no amount of everyone making JRPG style games is going to necessarily make them as marketable anymore. I don't think you can ultimately make consumers want things they don't inherently desire at some level.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Hmm so has 360 passed Wii in the US then?

I'm thinking it's a no

 

[Aquamarine]

Yeah, in the US it isn't even close, and even worldwide it's assumed that the 360 is still ahead, if only by a very small amount (I believe that MS announced that they hit 80 million a couple weeks/a month before Sony did).

Right. It's extraordinarily close.


Microsoft: 80 million Xbox 360 sold-in as of October 17th, 2013

Sony: 80 million PS3 sold-in as of November 2nd, 2013




Microsoft: 83.7 million Xbox 360 sold-in as of March 31st, 2014

Unfortunately, we don't have an update from Sony as their financial reports combine PS3 and PS4 (17.0 million PS3 + PS4 sold-in from April 1st, 2013 through March 31st, 2014).

 

[AniHawk]

I would assume they'll aim to reduce the price as fast as possible, and adjust the value proposition, maybe try and push peripherals and associated games more. Whatever Media Molecule is working on, as probably Sony's best developer to attract those markets besides maybe London Studio, is probably aimed at those markets. Whether it will work of course is another matter. Also I don't really look at Sony's ecosystem in isolation here. In terms of the 7th gen, at least, Microsoft was the one that largely captured the late generation family/child market with Kinect and things like Kinectimals. I'm not sure what you mean by actively trying to kill interest, I don't think any of the console makers are in the business of actively dissuading potential customers, but I don't think all of them compete equally well for each potential customer.

microsoft largely tapped into a market that was already used to buying consoles and games as luxury items though. in 2010, nintendo had brought in millions and millions of families, so i don't find it surprising that those people who were familiar with the game could wind up playing the xbox 360 and kinect. more than that, microsoft spent $500m, and a large concerted effort in manufacturing software themselves to seeing that they actually got this audience as customers. they didn't just throw out one or two games and hoped they did well (which is more or less what microsoft tried with rare in 2008). and i don't see sony putting in that same effort when they didn't with the ps3. i'm afraid microsoft won't either, after the audience didn't bite for the xbox one.

With regard to GTA, I was really referring to people chasing those dollars because of how well they sold during the PS2 era (with three of the top 5 games, including the best selling), and the advent of more powerful hardware probably also helped in realizing better open worlds. I don't think the popularity of online play is something that's been engineered by publishers, rather than something that has grown in popularity organically and that they're simply trying to capitalize on. There was also a shift in terms of many formerly PC-oriented developers breaking into the console space, and those franchises and titles being met with success changing the landscape.

As much as I would like some sort of console JRPG resurgence, for instance, I imagine no amount of everyone making JRPG style games is going to necessarily make them as marketable anymore. I don't think you can ultimately make consumers want things they don't inherently desire at some level.

i don't think consumer interest is engineered. i think the libraries are, though. they don't seem representative of a healthy console library, or ones grown for different audiences.

i want breadth, not depth. if bandai namco and nintendo could sell 200,000 rpgs with weird names, i don't see why more companies couldn't put smaller teams on games that would require less risk to make a profit, especially at the beginning of the generation when there's more incentive to break out and try new things instead of target one kind of consumer.

 

[Aquamarine]

Hmm so has 360 passed Wii in the US then?

I'm thinking it's a no

So I said that Xbox 360 hit 41.2 million in February 2014, right?

Well, Wii was around that figure before the PS3 / Xbox One came out. Like, in October 2013.

And Wii didn't do abysmally in Holiday 2013. I mean, it managed like ~85K in November. And we know it sold 95K < Wii < 299K in December. That's something, right?

 

[Hero]

I would be interested in knowing how many titles slated for the fall/winter holiday season are in each genre. I imagine FPS and TPS games must account for at least 50%.

 

[Biker19]

RE: Clear Winner ... didn't PS3 catch up or pass 360 at some point? Or did MS take the lead back again.

It passed Xbox 360 outside of the U.S. (& Xbox 360 used to have the lead over PS3 in Europe), but not in the U.S. as the gap for Xbox 360 sales in the U.S. was much larger than PS3's.

 

[SwiftDeath]

So likely Wii is still ahead but they're probably damn close

And as always thanks Aqua You're the best!

 

[Jigorath]

Back in February 2014 I said:

360 USA LTD - 41.2 million

PS3 USA LTD - 25.7 million


Add in March + April + May, and you have current LTD totals.

360 really was a monster in the US. Gotta give it props for that.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

i want breadth, not depth.

I think most consumers do, fundamentally, and its here that the death of the 'midtier' has really hurt.

Stratifying traditional gaming into a few highly polished genres isn't just bad in terms of retaining consumer interest, but its also incredibly risky from a production point of view, because a single high cost bomba can take down the company.

Gaming used to be Baskin Robbins; its slowly becoming a choice between vanilla or chocolate.

 

[vinnygambini]

Do we have any LTD numbers for Fire Emblem: Awakening?

 

[shinra-bansho]

i don't think consumer interest is engineered. i think the libraries are, though. they don't seem representative of a healthy console library, or ones grown for different audiences.

i want breadth, not depth. if bandai namco and nintendo could sell 200,000 rpgs with weird names, i don't see why more companies couldn't put smaller teams on games that would require less risk to make a profit, especially at the beginning of the generation when there's more incentive to break out and try new things instead of target one kind of consumer.

I think your example basically comes down to different business models being appropriate for different publishers. The big Western publishers aren't really looking to sell 200K at physical retail with products for relatively niche markets. They want to produce output that attracts multiple millions of people. And at the end of the day it doesn't actually matter if that's a TPS or an RPG or a dance game. Rhetorically, if you were at Ubisoft, would you trade the Assassin's Creed franchise in for the Tales franchise? The Just Dance franchise?

It just so happens that the games that can sell multiple millions these days tend to be in certain genres or aimed at certain audiences.

I think I had the same discussion in a thread about Tomb Raider. It's Tomb Raider in name essentially and no longer a puzzle platformer. I can only surmise that's because S-E sees more sales potential in it being a TPS action adventure. If they thought there were more people willing to buy Tomb Raider as a puzzle platformer than a TPS action adventure, then presumably S-E would be making a puzzle platformer.

 

[AniHawk]

I think your example basically comes down to different business models being appropriate for different publishers. The big Western publishers aren't really looking to sell 200K at physical retail with products for relatively niche markets. They want to produce output that attracts multiple millions of people. And at the end of the day it doesn't actually matter if that's a TPS or an RPG or a dance game. Rhetorically, if you were at Ubisoft, would you trade the Assassin's Creed franchise in for the Tales franchise? The Just Dance franchise?

i don't think it needs to be that sort of false dichotomy. and i'm not sure assassin's creed needs 1000 people working on it. why not take a tenth of that workforce and put them to work on a smaller project? or how about putting out those really tiny ubisoft framework games at retail?

It just so happens that the games that can sell multiple millions these days tend to be in certain genres or aimed at certain audiences.

I think I had the same discussion in a thread about Tomb Raider. It's Tomb Raider in name essentially and no longer a puzzle platformer. I can only surmise that's because S-E sees more sales potential in it being a TPS action adventure. If they thought there were more people willing to buy Tomb Raider as a puzzle platformer than a TPS action adventure, then presumably S-E would be making a puzzle platformer.

i think tomb raider would have had the same sales as a puzzle-platformer tomb raider as long as the cutscenes were the same and lara croft's death scenes were still gory. not sure if all the pre-game hype was due to it playing like uncharted. it makes less sense when they were using the tomb raider name to sell the product, which already carries with it that history.

 

[A_Gorilla]

If the PS4 outsells the XB1 in June I easily the NPD thread topping the list.

 

[Aquamarine]

If the PS4 outsells the XB1 in June I easily the NPD thread topping the list.

Can you imagine the reaction if the Wii U outsold the Xbox One next month?

 

[A_Gorilla]

Can you imagine the reaction if the Wii U outsold the Xbox One next month?

 

[SwiftDeath]

If the PS4 outsells the XB1 in June I easily the NPD thread topping the list.

The majority opinion on March was that XB1 would outsell the PS4. That didn't happen causing quite a bit of discussion on the matter.

There doesn't really appear to be a majority opinion on June from what I've seen. I highly doubt people will be as surprised by the outcome if PS4 was to outsell it again.

Looking at the first 5 of the Top 10

Top 10 NPD threads by amount of posts:

1) March 2014 - 7,109 posts, 900,253 views
2) November 2013 - 5,349 posts, 608,308 views
3) January 2013 - 4,592 posts, 365,992 views
4) April 2014 - 3,896 posts, 501,384 views
5) January 2014 - 3,835 posts, 450,018 views

Even the worst January in a long time didn't manage to break 4000 posts. I say at best June regardless of sales outcomes hits 4500 posts max. March was an anomaly

 

[SeanTSC]

Can you imagine the reaction if the Wii U outsold the Xbox One next month?

I think it'll roughly go something like this:

 

[ZSaberLink]

Can you imagine the reaction if the Wii U outsold the Xbox One next month?

It'd only really topped by this: Wii U > XB1 > PS4. I think this thread would just break gaf then.

 

[SwiftDeath]

It'd only really topped by this: Wii U > XB1 > PS4. I think this thread would just break gaf then.

But

Spoiler

Dreamcast >

Ouya > Vita > Wii U > XB1 > 3DS > PS4!

 

[Game Guru]

Thinking about the lack of variety with retail software on PS4 and Xbox One, why hasn't any of the big publishers tried to make a Minecraft clone yet? Yeah, it's a line of cynical thinking perhaps, but Minecraft has been a permanent member of the NPD best seller list month after month. It's sold 13.5 million on consoles and 35 million on every platform. It's the third best selling video game of all time, only outsold by Tetris and Wii Sports... so why hasn't any big third-party publisher jumped on this yet?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Thinking about the lack of variety with retail software on PS4 and Xbox One, why hasn't any of the big publishers tried to make a Minecraft clone yet? Yeah, it's a line of cynical thinking perhaps, but Minecraft has been a permanent member of the NPD best seller list month after month. It's sold 13.5 million on consoles and 35 million on every platform. It's the third best selling video game of all time, only outsold by Tetris and Wii Sports... so why hasn't any big third-party publisher jumped on this yet?

Hmm there is one game that I'm thinking of in production that is somewhat like minecraft being developed by a large developer. Can't remember it's name though

Edit: I'm thinking of Epic games upcoming Fortnite game

Gameplay video

Seemed kinda Minecraft-esque to me

 

[mrklaw]

Thinking about the lack of variety with retail software on PS4 and Xbox One, why hasn't any of the big publishers tried to make a Minecraft clone yet? Yeah, it's a line of cynical thinking perhaps, but Minecraft has been a permanent member of the NPD best seller list month after month. It's sold 13.5 million on consoles and 35 million on every platform. It's the third best selling video game of all time, only outsold by Tetris and Wii Sports... so why hasn't any big third-party publisher jumped on this yet?

"Guys, guys - why don't we make a minecraft clone? I have a bottle right here, now just need some lightning..."

 

[Foshy]

The majority opinion on March was that XB1 would outsell the PS4. That didn't happen causing quite a bit of discussion on the matter.

There doesn't really appear to be a majority opinion on June from what I've seen. I highly doubt people will be as surprised by the outcome if PS4 was to outsell it again.

Looking at the first 5 of the Top 10



Even the worst January in a long time didn't manage to break 4000 posts. I say at best June regardless of sales outcomes hits 4500 posts max. March was an anomaly

So we're predicting post numbers of sales threads now? Shit's getting meta.

 

[mrklaw]

So we're predicting post numbers of sales threads now? Shit's getting meta.

July 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) results thread predictions thread - Closes July 14th

[Day one posts] 4K
[Day one views] 125K
[Lifetime posts] 6K
[Lifetime views] 860K

 

[Huggers]

I'm not a sales number guy at all but with the slow month(s) for Xbox One is it unrealistic to expect it to come top after a price drop?

 

[Log4Girlz]

Thinking about the lack of variety with retail software on PS4 and Xbox One, why hasn't any of the big publishers tried to make a Minecraft clone yet? Yeah, it's a line of cynical thinking perhaps, but Minecraft has been a permanent member of the NPD best seller list month after month. It's sold 13.5 million on consoles and 35 million on every platform. It's the third best selling video game of all time, only outsold by Tetris and Wii Sports... so why hasn't any big third-party publisher jumped on this yet?

I have no clue why Nintendo hasn't tried getting Minecraft on their systems or made one of their own. One of the mysteries of life.

 

[gcubed]

I'm not a sales number guy at all but with the slow month(s) for Xbox One is it unrealistic to expect it to come top after a price drop?

In a vacuum, maybe not, but you had almost all stores selling the kinect console with live and a game for 449 and some selling a game bundle for 399 in the months leading up to June. I'm not sure how much pent up demand there is for a worse value.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Did we get Drakengard 3 sales. I would like to know

 

[Phades]

Thinking about the lack of variety with retail software on PS4 and Xbox One, why hasn't any of the big publishers tried to make a Minecraft clone yet? Yeah, it's a line of cynical thinking perhaps, but Minecraft has been a permanent member of the NPD best seller list month after month. It's sold 13.5 million on consoles and 35 million on every platform. It's the third best selling video game of all time, only outsold by Tetris and Wii Sports... so why hasn't any big third-party publisher jumped on this yet?

Maybe they don't know how, since it runs counter to the development styles and outlooks for the major publishers. Small team, no marketing, all mechanics, not visually stunning, etc.

 

[JoeM86]

I have no clue why Nintendo hasn't tried getting Minecraft on their systems or made one of their own. One of the mysteries of life.

Until recently, didn't Microsoft have an exclusivity contract?

 

[Jaxyfoo]

Predictions wise, I'm not convinced we will see any real change in order of sales. Where I do see a change - If Joe Random walks in to buy a PS4 in November and December and finds everyone sold out again, then he will buy an Xbox one or Wii U without a second thought this year. Whereas last year the same guy would have shopped around and pre ordered the PS4 instead.

 

[Karsticles]

Can you imagine the reaction if the Wii U outsold the Xbox One next month?

I believe this will be the case. Nintendo has Mario Kart launching fresh, and XB1 has...?

 

[JoeM86]

I believe this will be the case. Nintendo has Mario Kart launching fresh, and XB1 has...?

A "price drop". A new SKU without Kinect that is apparently making consoles fly off shelves.

 

[donny2112]

A "price drop". A new SKU without Kinect that is apparently making consoles fly off shelves.

With the Kinect version still selling "vibrant"ly, IIRC. Uh-huh. Yeah. Whereas Amazon shows little similar movement. Anecdotes, ahoy!

Spoiler

Seriously, it's a big crapshoot for June's ordering.

 

[Aquamarine]

With the Kinect version still selling "vibrant"ly, IIRC. Uh-huh. Yeah. Whereas Amazon shows little similar movement. Anecdotes, ahoy!

Spoiler

Seriously, it's a big crapshoot for June's ordering.

Is "vibrantly" a euphemism for "not abysmally"?

 

[jakncoke]

Loss in market share makes PS3 the loser by default.

I dont think its as black and white as that, as PS2 dominate market share % was so large that even if PS3 did the same, that if 360/Wii just did mildly better than Xbox/Gamecube that Sony market share would drastically drop in USA and even more so WW. Hell PS2 ltd in Japan alone was nearly the same as Gamecubes and Xbox worldwide total

 

[lightning2k3]

Is "vibrantly" a euphemism for "not abysmally"?

i can't imagine the kinect bundled version to sell in june any better than this month's abysmal sales, so I don't see where they would get vibrantly from? Unless 76k is "vibrant"?

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

i can't imagine the kinect bundled version to sell in june any better than this month's abysmal sales, so I don't see where they would get vibrantly from? Unless 76k is "vibrant"?

Sales before a new SKU are usually lower, where that SKU has been publicly announced

 

[Aquamarine]

i can't imagine the kinect bundled version to sell in june any better than this month's abysmal sales, so I don't see where they would get vibrantly from? Unless 76k is "vibrant"?

I guess so.


GameSpot executive:

"They [the $399 Xbox One SKU] went on sale in GameStop yesterday; these things started to fly off the shelves. It's a huge win and a huge opportunity for us."

Puzon also noted that the original $499 Xbox One is still "very vibrant" for the retailer.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I guess so.


GameSpot executive:

"They [$399 Xbox One SKU] went on sale in GameStop yesterday; these things started to fly off the shelves. It's a huge win and a huge opportunity for us."

Puzon also noted that the original $499 Xbox One is still "very vibrant" for the retailer.

Maybe it's colorful or something? No idea. I would think the XB1 would easily sell 100K thanks to a 5 week month at the very least, and there's probably at least some demand for a lower entry level price point. Although what games are releasing in June retail-wise? We had Tomodachi Life on 3DS. Is that it? So are these June sales basically going off of the end of May releases like MK8 and Watch Dogs (which I admit are close enough to June)?

Oh right, there was that UFC game right? And I guess Transformers if you count licensed stuff.

 

[Squalor]

It'd only really topped by this: Wii U > XB1 > PS4. I think this thread would just break gaf then.

Impossible things are impossible.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Impossible things are impossible.

Nothing is impossible. It is likely highly improbable though =P.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Whatever the truth is it's not possible to judge long term sales from a comment made about lauch day... I have no doubt some boxes were preordered and did fly from their shelves.

 

[lightning2k3]

Sales before a new SKU are usually lower, where that SKU has been publicly announced

The point benig, people who wanted a kinect bundle in may would still have bought it in may and not waited for the debundled version in June, so may should reflect the demand for the kinect bundle. Previous to the announcement, it was impossible to differentiate who wanted the xbox kinect bundle vs who wanted just an xbox. As we see, that demand for the bundle was not very high.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Btw, here's a quote from Reggie about Tomodachi Life:

"We just launched Tomodachi Life. The Tomodachi Life numbers were significantly stronger than we had forecasted and planned. That's because it's a vibrant platform."

Something to talk about for the June NPD?